Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Prediction of psychological adjustment to multiple sclerosis

This study examined the utility of self-efficacy as a predictor of social activity and mood control in multiple sclerosis (MS). Seventy-one subjects with MS were recruited from people attending an MS centre or from a mailing list and were examined on two occasions that were two months apart. Clinic patients were more disabled than patients who completed assessments by post, but they were of higher socioeconomic status and were less dysphoric; We attempted to predict self-reported performance of mood control and social activity at two months, from self-efficacy or performance on these tasks at pretest. Demographic variables, disorder status, disability, self-esteem and depression were also allowed to compete for entry into multiple regressions. Substantial stability in mood, performance and disability was observed over the two months. In both mood control and social activity, past performance was the strongest predictor of later performance, but self-efficacy also contributed significantly to the prediction. The disability level entered a prediction of social activity; but no other variables predicted either type of performance. A secondary analysis predicting self-esteem at two months also included self-efficacy for social activity, illustrating the contribution of perceived capability to later assessments of self-worth. The study provided support for self-efficacy as a predictor of later behavioural outcomes and self-esteem in multiple sclerosis. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Evaluating SVM and MLDA in the extraction of discriminant regions for mental state prediction

Pattern recognition methods have been successfully applied in several functional neuroimaging studies. These methods can be used to infer cognitive states, so-called brain decoding. Using such approaches, it is possible to predict the mental state of a subject or a stimulus class by analyzing the spatial distribution of neural responses. In addition it is possible to identify the regions of the brain containing the information that underlies the classification. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is one of the most popular methods used to carry out this type of analysis. The aim of the current study is the evaluation of SVM and Maximum uncertainty Linear Discrimination Analysis (MLDA) in extracting the voxels containing discriminative information for the prediction of mental states. The comparison has been carried out using fMRI data from 41 healthy control subjects who participated in two experiments, one involving visual-auditory stimulation and the other based on bimanual fingertapping sequences. The results suggest that MLDA uses significantly more voxels containing discriminative information (related to different experimental conditions) to classify the data. On the other hand, SVM is more parsimonious and uses less voxels to achieve similar classification accuracies. In conclusion, MLDA is mostly focused on extracting all discriminative information available, while SVM extracts the information which is sufficient for classification. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exercise Reduces Effects of Creatine on Lung

We recently demonstrated that creatine supplementation increased some features of lung allergic sensitization in mice. On the other hand, other studies have shown that aerobic exercise inhibited allergic airway inflammation and remodeling. We hypothesized that aerobic exercise may decrease the exacerbatory effects of the creatine supplementation in a murine model of asthma. Balb/c mice were divided into six groups: Control, Creatine (Cr), Low Intensity Exercise + Creatine (Low + Cr), Ovalbumin (OVA), Ovalbumin + Creatine (OVA + Cr) and Ovalbumin + Creatine + Low Intensity Exercise (OVA + Cr + Low). OVA-sensitized groups were sensitized with OVA intraperitoneal injections (days 0, 14, 28, and 42). Aerosol challenge (OVA 1 %) and Cr treatment (0.5 g/kg/day) were initiated on Day 21 until Day 53. Low intensity exercise began on day 22 and was sustained until day 50. Low intensity exercise in the presence of creatine supplementation in sensitized mice resulted in a decreased number of eosinophils in BALF (p < 0.001) and in the airways (P < 0.001), and a decreased density of inflammatory cells positive to IL-4 (p < 0.001) and IL-5 (p < 0.001), airway collagen (p < 0.001) and elastic fibers (p < 0.001) content, airway smooth muscle thickness (p < 0.001) and bronchoconstriction index (p < 0.05) when compared with OVA + Cr group. These results suggest that aerobic exercise reduces the exacerbatory effects of creatine supplementation in chronically sensitized mice.

Aerobic conditioning and allergic pulmonary inflammation in mice. II. Effects on lung vascular and parenchymal inflammation and remodeling

Vieira RP, de Andrade VF, Duarte AC, dos Santos AB, Mauad T, Martins MA, Dolhnikoff M, Carvalho CR. Aerobic conditioning and allergic pulmonary inflammation in mice. II. Effects on lung vascular and parenchymal inflammation and remodeling. Am J Physiol Lung Cell Mol Physiol 295: L670-L679, 2008. First published August 29, 2008; doi: 10.1152/ajplung.00465.2007.-Recent evidence suggests that asthma leads to inflammation and remodeling not only in the airways but also in pulmonary vessels and parenchyma. In addition, some studies demonstrated that aerobic training decreases chronic allergic inflammation in the airways; however, its effects on the pulmonary vessels and parenchyma have not been previously evaluated. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that aerobic conditioning reduces inflammation and remodeling in pulmonary vessels and parenchyma in a model of chronic allergic lung inflammation. Balb/c mice were sensitized at days 0, 14, 28, and 42 and challenged with ovalbumin ( OVA) from day 21 to day 50. Aerobic training started on day 21 and continued until day 50. Pulmonary vessel and parenchyma inflammation and remodeling were evaluated by quantitative analysis of eosinophils and mononuclear cells and by collagen and elastin contents and smooth muscle thickness. Immunohistochemistry was performed to quantify the density of positive cells to interleukin (IL)-2, IL-4, IL-5, interferon-gamma, IL-10, monocyte chemotatic protein (MCP)-1, nuclear factor (NF)-kappa B p65, and insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I. OVA exposure induced pulmonary blood vessels and parenchyma inflammation as well as increased expression of IL-4, IL-5, MCP-1, NF-kappa B p65, and IGF-I by inflammatory cells were reduced by aerobic conditioning. OVA exposure also induced an increase in smooth muscle thickness and elastic and collagen contents in pulmonary vessels, which were reduced by aerobic conditioning. Aerobic conditioning increased the expression of IL-10 in sensitized mice. We conclude that aerobic conditioning decreases pulmonary vascular and parenchymal inflammation and remodeling in this experimental model of chronic allergic lung inflammation in mice.

SOX2 is an amplified lineage-survival oncogene in lung and esophageal squamous cell carcinomas

Lineage-survival oncogenes are activated by somatic DNA alterations in cancers arising from the cell lineages in which these genes play a role in normal development(1,2). Here we show that a peak of genomic amplification on chromosome 3q26.33 found in squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) of the lung and esophagus contains the transcription factor gene SOX2, which is mutated in hereditary human esophageal malformations(3), is necessary for normal esophageal squamous development(4), promotes differentiation and proliferation of basal tracheal cells(5) and cooperates in induction of pluripotent stem cells(6-8). SOX2 expression is required for proliferation and anchorage-independent growth of lung and esophageal cell lines, as shown by RNA interference experiments. Furthermore, ectopic expression of SOX2 here cooperated with FOXE1 or FGFR2 to transform immortalized tracheobronchial epithelial cells. SOX2-driven tumors show expression of markers of both squamous differentiation and pluripotency. These characteristics identify SOX2 as a lineage-survival oncogene in lung and esophageal SCC.

New body fat prediction equations for severely obese patients

Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Very early prediction of response to HCV treatment with PEG-IFN-alfa-2a and ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients

The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

Three-dimensional sonographic measurement of contralateral lung volume in fetuses with isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia

Purpose. To use 3-dimensional sonography (3DUS) to measure contralateral lung volume and evaluate the potential of this measurement to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods. Between January 2002 and December 2004, the contralateral lung volumes of 39 fetuses with isolated CDH were measured via 3DUS using rotational multiplanar imaging. The observed/expected contralateral fetal lung volume ratios (o/eContFLVR) were compared with the lung/head ratio (LHR), observed/expected total fetal lung volume ratio (o/e-TotFLVR), and postnatal outcome. Results. Contralateral lung volumes are less reduced than total lung volumes in CDH. The bias and precision of 3DUS in estimating contralateral lung volumes were 0.99 cm(3) and 1.11 cm(3), respectively, with absolute limits of agreement ranging from -1.19 cm(3) to + 3.17 cm(3). The o/e-ContFLVR was significantly lower in neonatal death cases (median, 0.49 cm(3); range, 0.22-0.99 cm(3)) than in survival cases (median, 0.58 cm(3); range, 0.42-0.92 cm(3) [p < 0.011). Overall accuracy of the o/e-ContFLVR, o/e-TotFLVR, and LHR in predicting neonatal death were 67.7% (21/31), 80.7% (25/31), and 77.4% (24/31), respectively. Conclusion. Although o/e-ContFLVR can be precisely measured with 3DUS and can be used to predict neonatal death in CDH, it is less accurate than LHR and o/e-TotFLVR for that purpose. (C) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ipsilateral Lung Volumes Assessed by Three-Dimensional Ultrasonography in Fetuses with Isolated Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia

Objective: To evaluate the precision of three-dimensional ultrasonography (3DUS) in estimating the ipsilateral lung volume and the potential of this measurement to predict neonatal death in congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods: Between January 2002 and December 2004, the ipsilateral lung volumes were assessed by 3DUS using the technique of rotation of the multiplan imaging in 39 fetuses with CDH. The observed/ expected ipsilateral lung volume ratios (o/e-IpsiFLVR) were compared to the lung/head ratios (LHR) and to the observed/ expected total fetal lung volume ratios (o/e-TotFLVR) as well as to postnatal death. Results: Ipsilateral lung volumes (median 0.12, range 0.01-0.66) were more reduced than the total lung volumes (median 0.52, range 0.11-0.95, p < 0.001) in CDH. The bias and precision of 3DUS in estimating ipsilateral lung volumes were -0.61 and 0.99 cm 3, respectively, with absolute limits of agreement from -2.56 to +1.33 cm(3). The o/e-IpsiFLVR was lower in neonatal death cases (median 0.09, range 0.01-0.46) than in survivals (median 0.18, range 0.01-0.66), but this difference was not statistically significance (p > 0.05). The sensitivity, speci-ficity, (positive and negative) predictive values and accuracy of o/e-IpsiFLVR in predicting neonatal death was 52.6% (10/19), 83.3% (10/12), 83.3% (10/12), 52.6% (10/19) and 64.5% (20/31), respectively. Conclusion: Although the ipsilateral lung volume can be measured by 3DUS, it cannot be used to predict neonatal death when considering it alone. However, it is important to measure it to calculate the total fetal lung volumes as the o/e-TotFLVR has the best efficacy in predicting neonatal death in isolated CDH. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collagen V and vascular injury promote lung architectural changes in systemic sclerosis

Background: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a multisystem disorder characterized by inflammation, fibrosis and vascular damage. The aim of this study was to evaluate the interactions between basement membrane disruption, endothelial injury and collagen V deposition on the vascular wall, as well as their association with pulmonary function tests in patients with SSc. Method: The endothelial apoptosis was assessed by TUNEL and electron microscopy, and quantified through the point-counting technique. To evaluate basement membrane integrity, laminin immunostaining and electron microscopy were used. Immunofluorescence and morphometric analysis were used to determine the amount of collagen V in the vascular walls in 23 open lung biopsies of patients with SSc without pulmonary hypertension. Normal lung tissue was obtained from five individuals who had died of traumatic injuries. Results: The apoptosis index in SSc was higher in the endothelial cells (13.83 +/- 6.83) when compared with the control (2.51 +/- 2.06) group (P < 0.001) and confirmed by electron microscopy. We observed an important disruption of the basement membrane on the vascular wall shown by discontinuous laminin immunostaining and electron microscopy. An increase in collagen V on the vascular wall of the SSc group was observed (45.28 +/- 13.21), when compared with control group (22.90 +/- 4.13, P < 0.001), and this difference was statistically significant. An inverse correlation was found between vital capacity, forced vital capacity, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, vascular collagen V and endothelial apoptosis (P < 0.05). Conclusions: We conclude that the endothelial apoptosis and vascular collagen V interaction reinforce the vascular pathway in the SSc pathogenesis. Further studies are needed to determine whether this relationship is causal or consequential. Please cite this paper as: Parra ER, Aguiar AC Jr, Teodoro WR, de Souza R, Yoshinari NH and Capelozzi VL. Collagen V and vascular injury promote lung architectural changes in systemic sclerosis. The Clinical Respiratory Journal 2009; 3: 135-142.

Prone position prevents regional alveolar hyperinflation and mechanical stress and strain in mild experimental acute lung injury

Prone position may delay the development of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI), but the mechanisms require better elucidation. In experimental mild acute lung injury (ALI), arterial oxygen partial pressure (Pa(O2)), lung mechanics and histology, inflammatory markers [interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-1 beta], and type III procollagen (PCIII) mRNA expressions were analysed in supine and prone position. Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups. In controls, saline was intraperitoneally injected while ALI was induced by paraquat. After 24-h, the animals were mechanically ventilated for 1-h in supine or prone positions. In ALI, prone position led to a better blood flow/tissue ratio both in ventral and dorsal regions and was associated with a more homogeneous distribution of alveolar aeration/tissue ratio reducing lung static elastance and viscoelastic pressure, and increasing end-expiratory lung volume and Pa(O2). PCIII expression was higher in the ventral than dorsal region in supine position, with no regional changes in inflammatory markers. In conclusion, prone position may protect the lungs against VILI, thus reducing pulmonary stress and strain. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Tityus serrulatus scorpion venom on lung mechanics and inflammation in mice

The present study evaluated the effects of an intramuscular injection of Tityus serrulatus venom (TsV) (0.67 mu g/g) on lung mechanics and lung inflammation at 15, 30, 60 and 180 min after inoculation. TsV inoculation resulted in increased lung elastance when compared with the control group (p < 0.001): these values were significantly higher at 60 min than at 15 and 180 min (p < 0.05). Resistive pressure (Delta P(1)) values decreased significantly at 30, 60 and 180 min after TsV injection (p < 0.001). TsV inoculation resulted in increased lung inflammation, characterised by an increased density of mononuclear cells at 15, 30, 60 and 180 min after TsV injection when compared with the control group (p < 0.001). TsV inoculation also resulted in an increased pulmonary density of polymorphonuclear cells at 15, 30 and 60 min following injection when compared to the control group (p < 0.001). In conclusion, T serrulatus venom leads to acute lung injury, characterised by altered lung mechanics and increased pulmonary inflammation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of frequency and inspiratory plateau pressure during recruitment manoeuvres on lung and distal organs in acute lung injury

To evaluate the effects of frequency and inspiratory plateau pressure (Pplat) during recruitment manoeuvres (RMs) on lung and distal organs in acute lung injury (ALI). We studied paraquat-induced ALI rats. At 24 h, rats were anesthetized and RMs were applied using continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP, 40 cmH(2)O/40 s) or three-different sigh strategies: (a) 180 sighs/h and Pplat = 40 cmH(2)O (S180/40), (b) 10 sighs/h and Pplat = 40 cmH(2)O (S10/40), and (c) 10 sighs/h and Pplat = 20 cmH(2)O (S10/20). S180/40 yielded alveolar hyperinflation and increased lung and kidney epithelial cell apoptosis as well as type III procollagen (PCIII) mRNA expression. S10/40 resulted in a reduction in epithelial cell apoptosis and PCIII expression. Static elastance and alveolar collapse were higher in S10/20 than S10/40. The reduction in sigh frequency led to a protective effect on lung and distal organs, while the combination with reduced Pplat worsened lung mechanics and histology.