Exact Solution of Bayes and Minimax Change-Detection Problems

The challenge of detecting a change in the distribution of data is a sequential decision problem that is relevant to many engineering solutions, including quality control and machine and process monitoring. This dissertation develops techniques for exact solution of change-detection problems with discrete time and discrete observations. Change-detection problems are classified as Bayes or minimax based on the availability of information on the change-time distribution. A Bayes optimal solution uses prior information about the distribution of the change time to minimize the expected cost, whereas a minimax optimal solution minimizes the cost under the worst-case change-time distribution. Both types of problems are addressed. The most important result of the dissertation is the development of a polynomial-time algorithm for the solution of important classes of Markov Bayes change-detection problems. Existing techniques for epsilon-exact solution of partially observable Markov decision processes have complexity exponential in the number of observation symbols. A new algorithm, called constellation induction, exploits the concavity and Lipschitz continuity of the value function, and has complexity polynomial in the number of observation symbols. It is shown that change-detection problems with a geometric change-time distribution and identically- and independently-distributed observations before and after the change are solvable in polynomial time. Also, change-detection problems on hidden Markov models with a fixed number of recurrent states are solvable in polynomial time. A detailed implementation and analysis of the constellation-induction algorithm are provided. Exact solution methods are also established for several types of minimax change-detection problems. Finite-horizon problems with arbitrary observation distributions are modeled as extensive-form games and solved using linear programs. Infinite-horizon problems with linear penalty for detection delay and identically- and independently-distributed observations can be solved in polynomial time via epsilon-optimal parameterization of a cumulative-sum procedure. Finally, the properties of policies for change-detection problems are described and analyzed. Simple classes of formal languages are shown to be sufficient for epsilon-exact solution of change-detection problems, and methods for finding minimally sized policy representations are described.

Coordinated Scheduling of Wind-Thermal Gencos in Day-Ahead Markets

This paper presents a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach for solving the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker thermal and wind power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market. Uncertainty on electricity price and wind power is considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modeled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. An efficient mixed-integer linear program is presented to develop the offering strategies of the coordinated production of thermal and wind energy generation, aiming to maximize the expected profit. A case study with data from the Iberian Electricity Market is presented and results are discussed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Portfolio Optimization in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

We address a portfolio optimization problem in a semi-Markov modulated market. We study both the terminal expected utility optimization on finite time horizon and the risk-sensitive portfolio optimization on finite and infinite time horizon. We obtain optimal portfolios in relevant cases. A numerical procedure is also developed to compute the optimal expected terminal utility for finite horizon problem.

Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

High-probability regret bounds for bandit online linear optimization

We present a modification of the algorithm of Dani et al. [8] for the online linear optimization problem in the bandit setting, which with high probability has regret at most O ∗ ( √ T) against an adaptive adversary. This improves on the previous algorithm [8] whose regret is bounded in expectation against an oblivious adversary. We obtain the same dependence on the dimension (n 3/2) as that exhibited by Dani et al. The results of this paper rest firmly on those of [8] and the remarkable technique of Auer et al. [2] for obtaining high probability bounds via optimistic estimates. This paper answers an open question: it eliminates the gap between the high-probability bounds obtained in the full-information vs bandit settings.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Non-linear Transceiver Designs with Imperfect CSIT Using Convex Optimization

In this paper, we consider non-linear transceiver designs for multiuser multi-input multi-output (MIMO) down-link in the presence of imperfections in the channel state information at the transmitter (CSIT). The base station (BS) is equipped with multiple transmit antennas and each user terminal is equipped with multiple receive antennas. The BS employs Tomlinson-Harashima precoding (THP) for inter-user interference pre-cancellation at the transmitter. We investigate robust THP transceiver designs based on the minimization of BS transmit power with mean square error (MSE) constraints, and balancing of MSE among users with a constraint on the total BS transmit power. We show that these design problems can be solved by iterative algorithms, wherein each iteration involves a pair of convex optimization problems. The robustness of the proposed algorithms to imperfections in CSIT is illustrated through simulations.

REDUCING COMPUTATIONAL EFFORT IN SOLVING GEOMECHANICS PROBLEMS WITH UPPER BOUND FINITE ELEMENTS LIMIT ANALYSIS AND LINEAR OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents a simple technique for reducing the computational effort while solving any geotechnical stability problem by using the upper bound finite element limit analysis and linear optimization. In the proposed method, the problem domain is discretized into a number of different regions in which a particular order (number of sides) of the polygon is chosen to linearize the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion. A greater order of the polygon needs to be selected only in that region wherein the rate of the plastic strains becomes higher. The computational effort required to solve the problem with this implementation reduces considerably. By using the proposed method, the bearing capacity has been computed for smooth and rough strip footings and the results are found to be quite satisfactory.

Solving Axisymmetric Stability Problems by Using Upper Bound Finite Elements, Limit Analysis, and Linear Optimization

A numerical formulation has been proposed for solving an axisymmetric stability problem in geomechanics with upper bound limit analysis, finite elements, and linear optimization. The Drucker-Prager yield criterion is linearized by simulating a sphere with a circumscribed truncated icosahedron. The analysis considers only the velocities and plastic multiplier rates, not the stresses, as the basic unknowns. The formulation is simple to implement, and it has been employed for finding the collapse loads of a circular footing placed over the surface of a cohesive-frictional material. The formulation can be used to solve any general axisymmetric geomechanics stability problem.

A Polymatroid Approach to Separable Convex Optimization with Linear Ascending Constraints

We revisit a problem studied by Padakandla and Sundaresan SIAM J. Optim., August 2009] on the minimization of a separable convex function subject to linear ascending constraints. The problem arises as the core optimization in several resource allocation problems in wireless communication settings. It is also a special case of an optimization of a separable convex function over the bases of a specially structured polymatroid. We give an alternative proof of the correctness of the algorithm of Padakandla and Sundaresan. In the process we relax some of their restrictions placed on the objective function.