Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Comparison of six tag types in sea-trout tagging experiments in the Baltic Sea

In the international Baltic Sea trout tagging experiment 27 753 hatchery reared sea trout smolts were tagged in Denmark, Finland, Poland and Sweden in 1979 and 1980. The fish were tagged with the original Carlin tag, two modified Carlin tag types (Canadian and Finnish polythene), streamer and Floy tags and Polish tags attached with Monel metal wire. The tag returns were affected by the place of release and smolt quality. The best results were obtained in the case of tags attached with double wire or thread -original Carlin, Canadian and Finnish polythene. The poorest results were obtained with streamer tags.

Confiabilidade de diferentes métodos de aquisição de modelos dentários digitais

O uso de modelos de estudo dentários faz parte tanto da prática quanto da pesquisa odontológica e ortodôntica. Com a introdução dos scanners 3D e dos tomógrafos CBCT (cone beam computer tomography) tornou-se possível a obtenção de modelos dentários tridimensionais virtuais das arcadas dentárias. Foram selecionados 56 modelos dentários superiores e escaneados em três tipos diferentes de scanners: Maestro 3D Dental Scanner (AGE Solutions, Potedera, Italia), 3Shape R700 3D Scanner (3Shape, Copenhagen, Dinamarca) e o scanner 3Shape TRIOS (3Shape, Copenhagen, Dinamarca). Doze medidas foram realizadas nos modelos dentários de gesso e comparadas com as mesmas medidas realizadas nos modelos dentários digitais por meio do teste de Análise de Variância (ANOVA). Estatisticamente não foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre as medições tradicionais nos modelos dentários de gesso e as medidas realizadas nos modelos dentários digitais. Os três tipos de métodos de aquisição de modelos dentários digitais foram considerados confiáveis para as medições horizontais, transversais e verticais. Os modelos dentários virtuais podem ser indicados como substitutos dos modelos dentários de gesso.

Polaridade regional e percepção de ameaças: comparando as políticas de defesa de África do Sul, Brasil e Índia

Tendo como pressuposto teórico a regionalização das questões de segurança internacional no pós Guerra Fria, esta dissertação objetiva realizar uma análise comparativa da Política de Defesa de três potências regionais, quais sejam, África do Sul, Brasil e Índia, identificando percepção de ameaça no âmbito das suas políticas de defesa. Para fazê-lo, fez-se necessário ter em consideração as capacidades materiais (inspirado no neorrealismo e realismo neoclássico), e os aspectos relativos à percepção de ameaças, numa dimensão ampliada dos estudos de segurança (inspirados pela Escola de Copenhague). Com isso em mente, este trabalho lida com a literatura sobre a segurança regional e as potências regionais, a qual se baseia em vários pressupostos teóricos Neorrealistas, Realistas Neoclássicos e da Escola de Copenhague. A proposição heurística que guia este trabalho é, dado que a percepção de ameaça externa vem de uma leitura, feita pelo Estado, do seu contexto regional, um Estado com baixo nível de ameaças externas tende a vincular de forma mais intensiva de segurança com o desenvolvimento. As fontes utilizadas são dados quantitativos (Composite Index of National Capabilities do projeto Correlates of War), que permitem avaliar a distribuição de capacidades materiais em três regiões (América do Sul, África do Sul, e no Sul da Ásia) e, principalmente, as políticas declaratórias de defesa, os documentos que carregam percepção dos Estados em relação à segurança. Na comparação dos casos, dois aspectos são o foco para a análise do discurso de segurança: as percepções de segurança sobre as suas regiões, o nexo entre segurança e desenvolvimento.

THE SENSITIVITY OF 2D COMPRESSOR INCIDENCE RANGE TO IN-SERVICE GEOMETRIC VARIATION

The loss mechanisms which control 2D incidence range are discussed with an emphasis on determining which real in-service geometric variations will have the largest impact. For the majority of engine compressor blades (Minlet>0.55) both the negative and positive incidence limits are controlled by supersonic patches. It is shown that these patches are highly sensitive to the geometric variations close to, and around the leading edge. The variations used in this study were measured from newly manufactured as well as ex-service blades. Over most the high pressure compressor considered, it was shown that manufacture variations dominated. The first part of the paper shows that, despite large geometric variations (~10% of leading edge thickness), the incidence range responded in a linear way. The result of this is that the geometric variations have little effect on the mean incidence range of a row of blades. In the second part of the paper a region of the design space is identified where non-linear behavior can result in a 10% reduction in positive incidence range. The mechanism for this is reported and design guidelines for its avoidance offered. In the final part of the paper, the linear behavior at negative incidence and the transonic nature of the flow is exploited to design a robust asymmetric leading edge with a 5% increase in incidence range.

Effects of Boundary Layer Ingestion on the Aero-Acoustics of Transonic Fan Rotors

The use of boundary-layer-ingesting, embedded propulsion systems can result in inlet flow distortions where the interaction of the boundary layer vorticity and the inlet lip causes horseshoe vortex formation and the ingestion of streamwise vortices into the inlet. A previously-developed body-force-based fan modeling approach was used to assess the change in fan rotor shock noise generation and propagation in a boundary-layer-ingesting, serpentine inlet. This approach is employed here in a parametric study to assess the effects of inlet geometry parameters (offset-to-diameter ratio and downstream-to-upstream area ratio) on flow distortion and rotor shock noise. Mechanisms related to the vortical inlet structures were found to govern changes in the rotor shock noise generation and propagation. The vortex whose circulation is in the opposite direction to the fan rotation (counter-swirling vortex) increases incidence angles on the fan blades near the tip, enhancing noise generation. The vortex with circulation in the direction of fan rotation (co-swirling vortex) creates a region of subsonic relative flow near the blade tip radius which decreases the sound power propagated to the far-field. The parametric study revealed that the overall sound power level at the fan leading edge is set by the ingested streamwise circulation, and that for inlet designs in which the streamwise vortices are displaced away from the duct wall, the sound power at the upstream inlet plane increased by as much as 9 dB. By comparing the far-field noise results obtained to those for a conventional inlet, it is deduced that the changes in rotor shock noise are predominantly due to the ingestion of streamwise vorticity.