A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

The beliefs which motivate young male and female drivers to speed : a comparison of low and high intenders

In Australia, young drivers aged 17 to 24 years, and particularly males, have the highest risk of being involved in a fatal crash. Investigation of young drivers’ beliefs allows for a greater understanding of their involvement in risky behaviours, such as speeding, as beliefs are associated with intentions, the antecedent to behaviour. The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to conceptualise beliefs using a scenario based questionnaire distributed to licensed drivers (N = 398). The questionnaire measured individual’s beliefs and intentions to speed in a particular situation. Consistent with a TPB-based approach, the beliefs of those with low intentions to speed (‘low intenders’) were compared with the beliefs of those with high intentions (‘high intenders’) with such comparisons conducted separately for males and females. Overall, significant differences in the beliefs held by low and high intenders and for both females and males were found. Specifically, for females, it was found that high intenders were significantly more likely to perceive advantages of speeding, less likely to perceive disadvantages, and more likely to be encouraged to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads than female low intenders. Females, however, did not differ in their perceptions of support from friends, with all females reporting some level of disapproval from most friends and all females (i.e., low and high intenders) reporting approval to speed from their male friends. The results for males revealed that high intenders were significantly more likely to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads as well as having greater perceptions of support from all friends, except from those friends with whom they worked. Low and high intending males did not differ in their perceptions of the advantages and disadvantages of speeding, with the exception of feelings of excitement whereby high intenders reported speeding to be more exciting than low intenders. The findings are discussed in terms of how they may directly inform the content of mass media and public education campaigns aimed at encouraging young drivers to slow down.

Comparison between electrically evoked and voluntary isometric contractions for biceps brachii muscle oxidative metabolism using near-infrared spectroscopy

This study compared voluntary (VOL) and electrically evoked isometric contractions by muscle stimulation (EMS) for changes in biceps brachii muscle oxygenation (tissue oxygenation index, ΔTOI) and total haemoglobin concentration (ΔtHb = oxygenated haemoglobin + deoxygenated haemoglobin) determined by near-infrared spectroscopy. Twelve men performed EMS with one arm followed 24 h later by VOL with the contralateral arm, consisting of 30 repeated (1-s contraction, 1-s relaxation) isometric contractions at 30% of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) for the first 60 s, and maximal intensity contractions thereafter (MVC for VOL and maximal tolerable current at 30 Hz for EMS) until MVC decreased ∼30% of pre-exercise MVC. During the 30 contractions at 30% MVC, ΔTOI decrease was significantly (P < 0.05) greater and ∼tHb was significantly (P < 0.05) lower for EMS than VOL, suggesting that the metabolic demand for oxygen in EMS is greater than VOL at the same torque level. However, during maximal intensity contractions, although EMS torque (∼40% of VOL) was significantly (P < 0.05) lower than VOL, ΔTOI was similar and ΔtHb was significantly (P < 0.05) lower for EMS than VOL towards the end, without significant differences between the two sessions in the recovery period. It is concluded that the oxygen demand of the activated biceps brachii muscle in EMS is comparable to VOL at maximal intensity. © Springer-Verlag 2009.

A Raman spectroscopic study of the mono-hydrogen phosphate mineral dorfmanite Na2(PO3OH)•2H2O – and in comparison with brushite

Aspects of the molecular structure of the mineral dorfmanite Na2(PO3OH)•2H2O were determined by Raman spectroscopy. The mineral originated from the Kedykverpakhk Mt., Lovozero, Kola Peninsula, Russia. Raman bands are assigned to the hydrogen phosphate units. The intense Raman band at 949 cm-1 and the less intense band at 866 cm-1 are assigned to the PO3 and POH stretching vibrations. Bands at 991, 1066 and 1141 cm-1 are assigned to the ν3 antisymmetric stretching modes. Raman bands at 393, 413 and 448 cm-1 and 514, 541 and 570 cm-1 are attributed to the ν2 and ν4 bending modes of the HPO4 units, respectively. Raman bands at 3373, 3443 and 3492 cm-1 are assigned to water stretching vibrations. POH stretching vibrations are identified by bands at 2904, 3080 and 3134 cm-1. Raman spectroscopy has proven very useful for the study of the structure of the mineral dorfmanite.

HR practices and challenges in Chinese firms : comparison with Western firms

This research compares Chinese HRM with Western HRM, particularly in the areas of development of HR information systems (HRIS) and HR measurement systems and their relation to HR’s involvement as a strategic partner in firms. The research uses a 3-stage model of HRIS (workforce profiling, business insight, and strategic driver) based on studies of Irmer and Ellerby (2005) and Boudreau and Ramstad (2003) to compare the relative stages of development of Chinese and Western HRM. The quantitative aspect of the study comprises a survey of senior HR practitioners from 171 Chinese firms whose data is compared with data from Irmer and Ellerby’s study of Australian and U.S. HRM (2005) and Lawler et al’s series of studies of U.S firms (1995, 1998, 2001, 2004). The main results of the comparison are that Chinese HRM generally lags behind Western HRM. In particular, Chinese HR professionals allocate less time to strategic activities and their roles are less strategic than those of Western HR professionals. The HR measurement systems of Chinese firms are more limited in function, and the HR information systems of Chinese companies are less automated and integrated. However there is also evidence of a “two speed” HR system in China with a small proportion of firms having highly sophisticated HR systems but with a much larger proportion of Chinese firms than in the West having only the most basic HR information systems. This ‘two speed” system is in part attributable to a split between the relatively advanced HR systems of large State Owned Enterprises and the basic systems that predominate in smaller, growing Local Private firms. The survey study is complemented by a series of interviews with a number of senior Chinese HR practitioners who provide richer insights into their experiences and the challenges they face in contemporary Chinese firms.

Comparison of intraocular pressure measurement between rebound, non-contact and Goldmann applanation tonometry in treated glaucoma patients

Background: To compare the intraocular pressure readings obtained with the iCare rebound tonometer and the 7CR non-contact tonometer with those measured by Goldmann applanation tonometry in treated glaucoma patients. Design: A prospective, cross sectional study was conducted in a private tertiary glaucoma clinic. Participants: 109 (54M:55F) patients including only eyes under medical treatment for glaucoma. Methods: Measurement by Goldmann applanation tonometry, iCare rebound tonometry and 7CR non-contact tonometry. Main Outcome Measures: Intraocular pressure. Results: There were strong correlations between the intraocular pressure measurements obtained with Goldmann and both the rebound and non-contact tonometers (Spearman r values ≥ 0.79, p < 0.001). However, there were small, statistically significant differences between the average readings for each tonometer. For the rebound tonometer, the mean intraocular pressure was slightly higher compared to the Goldmann applanation tonometer in the right eyes (p = 0.02), and similar in the left eyes (p = 0.93) however these differences did not reach statistical significance. The Goldmann correlated measurements from the noncontact tonometer were lower than the average Goldmann reading for both right (p < 0.001) and left (p > 0.01) eyes. The corneal compensated measurements from the non-contact tonometer were significantly higher compared to the other tonometers (p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions: The iCare rebound tonometer and the 7CR non-contact tonometer measure IOP in fundamentally different ways to the Goldmann applanation tonometer. The resulting IOP values vary between the instruments and will need to be considered when comparing clinical versus home acquired measurements.

Raman spectroscopy of the multi anion mineral arsentsumebite Pb2Cu(AsO4)(SO4)(OH) and in comparison with tsumebite Pb2Cu(PO4)(SO4)(OH)

The mineral arsentsumebite Pb2Cu(AsO4)(SO4)(OH), a copper arsenate-sulfate hydroxide of the brackebuschite group has been characterised by Raman spectroscopy. The brackebuschite mineral group are a series of monoclinic arsenates, phosphates and vanadates of the general formula A2B(XO4)(OH,H2O), where A may be Ba, Ca, Pb, Sr, while B may be Al, Cu2+,Fe2+, Fe3+, Mn2+, Mn3+, Zn and XO4 may be AsO4, PO4, SO4,VO4. Bands are assigned to the stretching and bending modes of SO42- AsO43- and HOAsO3 units. Raman spectroscopy readily distinguishes between the two minerals arsentsumebite and tsumebite. Raman bands attributed to arsenate are not observed in the Raman spectrum of tsumebite. Phosphate bands found in the Raman spectrum of tsumebite are not found in the Raman spectrum of arsentsumebite. Raman spectroscopy readily distinguishes the two minerals tsumebite and arsentsumebite.

Vibrational spectroscopy of synthetic stercorite H(NH4)Na(PO4)•4H2O – a comparison with the natural cave mineral

In order to mimic the chemical reactions in cave systems, the analogue of the mineral stercorite H(NH4)Na(PO4)•4H2O has been synthesised. X-ray diffraction of the stercorite analogue matches the stercorite reference pattern. A comparison is made with the vibrational spectra of synthetic stercorite analogue and the natural Cave mineral. The mineral in nature is formed by the reaction of bat guano chemicals on calcite substrates. A single Raman band at 920 cm-1 (Cave) and 922 cm-1 (synthesised) defines the presence of hydrogen phosphate in the mineral. In the synthetic stercorite analogue, additional bands are observed and are attributed to the dihydrogen and phosphate anions. The vibrational spectra of synthetic stercorite only partly match that of the natural stercorite. It is suggested that natural stercorite is more pure than that of synthesised stercorite. Antisymmetric stretching bands are observed in the infrared spectrum at 1052, 1097, 1135 and 1173 cm-1. Raman spectroscopy shows the stercorite mineral is based upon the hydrogen phosphate anion and not the phosphate anion. Raman and infrared bands are found and assigned to PO43-, H2O, OH and NH stretching vibrations. Raman spectroscopy shows the synthetic analogue is similar to the natural mineral. A mechanism for the formation of stercorite is provided.

Underwater emissions from a two-stroke outboard engine : a comparison between an EAL and an equivalent mineral lubricant

The emissions to water from a 1.9 kW two-stroke outboard engine were investigated in the laboratory and in the field, with the primary objective being to characterise and quantify the pollutants that remain within the water column. The emission rates of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were determined for the engine when using a mineral and an equivalent environmentally adapted lubricant (EAL). A comparison of the emission rates was conducted between the results from the fresh and sea water tests. The results showed that there was little difference in the emission rates of these pollutants when either of the lubricants was used in both the fresh and sea water. A further set of tests were done to find out the effect on pH of water due to the underwater emissions and these tests were done using both mineral and environmentally adapted lubricant. The results showed that the type of lubricant does not have any effect on the change in pH of the water.

Comparison of Kenz Lifecorder EX and ActiGraph accelerometers in 10-yr-old children

A new accelerometer, the Kenz Lifecorder EX (LC; Suzuken Co. Ltd, Nagoya, Japan), offers promise as a feasible monitor alternative to the commonly used Actigraph (AG: Actigraph LLC, Fort Walton Beach, FL). Purpose: This study compared the LC and AG accelerometers and the Yamax SW-200 pedometer (DW) under free-living conditions with regard to children's steps taken and time in light-intensity physical activity (PA) and moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA). Methods: Participants (N = 31, age = 10.2 ± 0.4 yr) wore LC, AG, and DW monitors from arrival at school (7:45 a.m.) until they went to bed. Time in light and MVPA intensities were calculated using two separate intensity classifications for the LC (LC_4 and LC_5) and four classifications for the AG (AG_Treuth, AG_Puyau, AG_Trost, and AG_Freedson). Both accelerometers provided steps as outputs. DW steps were self-recorded. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to assess overlapping monitor outputs. Results: There was no difference between DW and LC steps (Δ = 200 steps), but a nonsignificant trend was observed in the pairwise comparison between DW and AG steps (Δ = 1001 steps, P = 0.058). AG detected significantly greater steps than the LC (Δ = 801 steps, P = 0.001). Estimates of light-intensity activity minutes ranged from a low of 75.6 ± 18.4 min (LC_4) to a high of 309 ± 69.2 min (AG_Treuth). Estimates of MVPA minutes ranged from a low of 25.9 ± 9.4 min (LC_5) to a high of 112.2 ± 34.5 min (AG_Freedson). No significant differences in MVPA were seen between LC_5 and AG_Treuth (Δ = 4.9 min) or AG_Puyau (Δ = 1.7 min). Conclusion: The LC detected a comparable number of steps as the DW but significantly fewer steps than the AG in children. Current results indicate that the LC_5 and either AG_Treuth or AG_Puyau intensity derivations provide similar mean estimates of time in MVPA during-free living activity in 10-yr-old children.

Stop whining and make the best of it: a cross-national comparison of response to regional disadvantage in the wine industry

Our cross-national field study of wine entrepreneurship in the “wrong” places provides some redress to the focus of the “regional advantage” literature on places that have already won and on the firms that benefit from “clusters” and other centers of industry advantage. Regional “disadvantage” is at best a shadowy afterthought to this literature. By poking around in these shadows, we help to synthesize and extend the incipient yet burgeoning literature on entrepreneurial “resourcefulness” and we contribute to the developing body of insights and theory pertinent to the numerous but often ignored firms and startups that mostly need to worry about how they will compete at all now if they are ever to have of chance of “winning” in the future. The core of our findings suggests that understandable – though contested – processes of ingenuity underlie entrepreneurial responses to regional disadvantage. Because we study entrepreneurship that from many angles simply does not make sense, we are also able to proffer a novel perspective on entrepreneurial sensemaking.

A temporal comparison of AltaVista Web searching

Major Web search engines, such as AltaVista, are essential tools in the quest to locate online information. This article reports research that used transaction log analysis to examine the characteristics and changes in AltaVista Web searching that occurred from 1998 to 2002. The research questions we examined are (1) What are the changes in AltaVista Web searching from 1998 to 2002? (2) What are the current characteristics of AltaVista searching, including the duration and frequency of search sessions? (3) What changes in the information needs of AltaVista users occurred between 1998 and 2002? The results of our research show (1) a move toward more interactivity with increases in session and query length, (2) with 70% of session durations at 5 minutes or less, the frequency of interaction is increasing, but it is happening very quickly, and (3) a broadening range of Web searchers' information needs, with the most frequent terms accounting for less than 1% of total term usage. We discuss the implications of these findings for the development of Web search engines. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Single crystal raman spectroscopy of natural finnemanite and comparison with the synthesised analogue

The single crystal Raman spectra of natural mineral finnemanite Pb5(AsO3)3Cl from the Långban locality, Filipstad district, Värmland province, Sweden are presented for the first time. It is a hexagonal mineral belonging to the ortho arsenite group, where the [AsO3]3- ion is isolated. The spectra of finnemanite are characterized by a strong band at 734 cm-1 overlying a shoulder at 726 cm-1, and broad overlapping bands in the lower wavenumber with the strongest band positioned at 174 cm-1. Band assignments were made based on band symmetry, experimental band positions from literature and DFT calculated Raman spectrum, and spectral comparison with other ortho arsenite minerals reinerite, cafarsite, and nealite and synthetic lead arsenite compounds Pb2(AsO2)3Cl, Pb2As2O5, and PbAs2O4 . The band at 734 cm-1 was assigned to υ1(AsO3), bands at 726 and 640 cm-1 assigned to υ3, 372 and 357 cm-1 to υ2, and 244, 239 and 207 cm-1 to υ4. The single crystal spectra of finnemanite showed good mode separation, allowing bands to be assigned a symmetry species of Ag, E1g, or E2g.

The impact of infrastructure charges on new housing costs : an international comparison

Sourcing funding for the provision of new urban infrastructure has been a policy dilemma for governments around the world for decades. This is particularly relevant in high growth areas where new services are required to support swelling populations. Existing communities resist the introduction of new taxes to fund such infrastructure, hence the introduction of charges to the developer has flourished. The Australian infrastructure funding policy dilemmas are reflective of similar matters to some extent in the United Kingdom, and to a greater extent the United States of America. In these countries, infrastructure cost recovery policies have been in place since the 1940’s and 1970’s respectively. There is an extensive body of theoretical and empirical literature that discusses the passing on (to home buyers) or passing back (to the englobo land seller) of these increased infrastructure charges, and the corresponding impact on housing cost and supply. The purpose of this research is to examine the international evidence that suggests infrastructure charges contribute to increased house prices as well as reduced land supply. The paper concludes that whilst the theoretical work is largely consistent, the empirical research to date is inconclusive and further research is required into these impacts in Australia.