Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Modular average case analysis: Language implementation and extension

Motivated by accurate average-case analysis, MOdular Quantitative Analysis (MOQA) is developed at the Centre for Efficiency Oriented Languages (CEOL). In essence, MOQA allows the programmer to determine the average running time of a broad class of programmes directly from the code in a (semi-)automated way. The MOQA approach has the property of randomness preservation which means that applying any operation to a random structure, results in an output isomorphic to one or more random structures, which is key to systematic timing. Based on original MOQA research, we discuss the design and implementation of a new domain specific scripting language based on randomness preserving operations and random structures. It is designed to facilitate compositional timing by systematically tracking the distributions of inputs and outputs. The notion of a labelled partial order (LPO) is the basic data type in the language. The programmer uses built-in MOQA operations together with restricted control flow statements to design MOQA programs. This MOQA language is formally specified both syntactically and semantically in this thesis. A practical language interpreter implementation is provided and discussed. By analysing new algorithms and data restructuring operations, we demonstrate the wide applicability of the MOQA approach. Also we extend MOQA theory to a number of other domains besides average-case analysis. We show the strong connection between MOQA and parallel computing, reversible computing and data entropy analysis.

Changes in landing mechanics in patients following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction when wearing an extension constraint knee brace.

BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is associated with a high incidence of second tears (graft tears and contralateral ACL tears). These secondary tears have been attributed to asymmetrical lower extremity mechanics. Knee bracing is one potential intervention that can be used during rehabilitation that has the potential to normalize lower extremity asymmetry; however, little is known about the effect of bracing on movement asymmetry in patients following ACL reconstruction. HYPOTHESIS: Wearing a knee brace would increase knee joint flexion and joint symmetry. It was also expected that the joint mechanics would become more symmetrical in the braced condition. OBJECTIVE: To examine how knee bracing affects knee joint function and symmetry over the course of rehabilitation in patients 6 months following ACL reconstruction. STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3. METHODS: Twenty-three adolescent patients rehabilitating from ACL reconstruction surgery were recruited for the study. The subjects all underwent a motion analysis assessment during a stop-jump activity with and without a functional knee brace on the surgical side that resisted extension for 6 months following the ACL reconstruction surgery. Statistical analysis utilized a 2 × 2 (limb × brace) analysis of variance with a significant alpha level of 0.05. RESULTS: Subjects had increased knee flexion on the surgical side when they were braced. The brace condition increased knee flexion velocity, decreased the initial knee flexion angle, and increased the ground reaction force and knee extension moment on both limbs. Side-to-side asymmetry was present across conditions for the vertical ground reaction force and knee extension moment. CONCLUSION: Wearing a knee brace appears to increase lower extremity compliance and promotes normalized loading on the surgical side. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Knee extension constraint bracing in postoperative ACL patients may improve symmetry of lower extremity mechanics, which is potentially beneficial in progressing rehabilitation and reducing the incidence of second ACL tears.

Adenosine-induced flow arrest to facilitate intracranial aneurysm clip ligation: dose-response data and safety profile.

BACKGROUND: Adenosine-induced transient flow arrest has been used to facilitate clip ligation of intracranial aneurysms. However, the starting dose that is most likely to produce an adequate duration of profound hypotension remains unclear. We reviewed our experience to determine the dose-response relationship and apparent perioperative safety profile of adenosine in intracranial aneurysm patients. METHODS: This case series describes 24 aneurysm clip ligation procedures performed under an anesthetic consisting of remifentanil, low-dose volatile anesthetic, and propofol in which adenosine was used. The report focuses on the doses administered; duration of systolic blood pressure <60 mm Hg (SBP(<60 mm Hg)); and any cardiovascular, neurologic, or pulmonary complications observed in the perioperative period. RESULTS: A median dose of 0.34 mg/kg ideal body weight (range: 0.29-0.44 mg/kg) resulted in a SBP(<60 mm Hg) for a median of 57 seconds (range: 26-105 seconds). There was a linear relationship between the log-transformed dose of adenosine and the duration of a SBP(<60 mm Hg) (R(2) = 0.38). Two patients developed transient, hemodynamically stable atrial fibrillation, 2 had postoperative troponin levels >0.03 ng/mL without any evidence of cardiac dysfunction, and 3 had postoperative neurologic changes. CONCLUSIONS: For intracranial aneurysms in which temporary occlusion is impractical or difficult, adenosine is capable of providing brief periods of profound systemic hypotension with low perioperative morbidity. On the basis of these data, a dose of 0.3 to 0.4 mg/kg ideal body weight may be the recommended starting dose to achieve approximately 45 seconds of profound systemic hypotension during a remifentanil/low-dose volatile anesthetic with propofol induced burst suppression.

Incontinence and gait disturbance after intraventricular extension of intracerebral hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is associated with incontinence and gait disturbance among survivors of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) at 3-month follow-ups. METHODS: The Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Hemorrhagic Stroke study was used as the discovery set. The Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage study served as a replication set. Both studies performed prospective hot-pursuit recruitment of ICH cases with 3-month follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were computed to identify risk factors for incontinence and gait dysmobility at 3 months after ICH. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 307 ICH cases in the discovery set and 1,374 cases in the replication set. In the discovery set, we found that increasing IVH volume was associated with incontinence (odds ratio [OR] 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-2.06) and dysmobility (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.17-2.15) after controlling for ICH location, initial ICH volume, age, baseline modified Rankin Scale score, sex, and admission Glasgow Coma Scale score. In the replication set, increasing IVH volume was also associated with both incontinence (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.27-1.60) and dysmobility (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.24-1.57) after controlling for the same variables. CONCLUSION: ICH subjects with IVH extension are at an increased risk for developing incontinence and dysmobility after controlling for factors associated with severity and disability. This finding suggests a potential target to prevent or treat long-term disability after ICH with IVH.

A natural extension of the conventional finite volume method into polygonal unstructured meshes for CFD application.

A new general cell-centered solution procedure based upon the conventional control or finite volume (CV or FV) approach has been developed for numerical heat transfer and fluid flow which encompasses both structured and unstructured meshes for any kind of mixed polygon cell. Unlike conventional FV methods for structured and block structured meshes and both FV and FE methods for unstructured meshes, the irregular control volume (ICV) method does not require the shape of the element or cell to be predefined because it simply exploits the concept of fluxes across cell faces. That is, the ICV method enables meshes employing mixtures of triangular, quadrilateral, and any other higher order polygonal cells to be exploited using a single solution procedure. The ICV approach otherwise preserves all the desirable features of conventional FV procedures for a structured mesh; in the current implementation, collocation of variables at cell centers is used with a Rhie and Chow interpolation (to suppress pressure oscillation in the flow field) in the context of the SIMPLE pressure correction solution procedure. In fact all other FV structured mesh-based methods may be perceived as a subset of the ICV formulation. The new ICV formulation is benchmarked using two standard computational fluid dynamics (CFD) problems i.e., the moving lid cavity and the natural convection driven cavity. Both cases were solved with a variety of structured and unstructured meshes, the latter exploiting mixed polygonal cell meshes. The polygonal mesh experiments show a higher degree of accuracy for equivalent meshes (in nodal density terms) using triangular or quadrilateral cells; these results may be interpreted in a manner similar to the CUPID scheme used in structured meshes for reducing numerical diffusion for flows with changing direction.

An extension of Purcell's vector method with applications to panel element equations

The classical Purcell's vector method, for the construction of solutions to dense systems of linear equations is extended to a flexible orthogonalisation procedure. Some properties are revealed of the orthogonalisation procedure in relation to the classical Gauss-Jordan elimination with or without pivoting. Additional properties that are not shared by the classical Gauss-Jordan elimination are exploited. Further properties related to distributed computing are discussed with applications to panel element equations in subsonic compressible aerodynamics. Using an orthogonalisation procedure within panel methods enables a functional decomposition of the sequential panel methods and leads to a two-level parallelism.

Range extension and reproduction of the barnacle Balanus perforatus in the eastern English Channel

The distribution of the warm-water barnacle, Balanus perforatus, was surveyed along the south coast of England and the north-east coast of France between 1993 and 2001, repeating work carried out between the 1940s and 1960s. The species has recovered from catastrophic mortality during the severe winter of 1962–1963 and was found over 120 km (UK) and 190 km (France) east of previous records on both sides of the Channel. The presence of the species in the eastern Channel refutes suggestions in the 1950s that larvae, and hence adults, would not be found east of the Isle of Wight because of reproductive sterility close to the limits of distribution. Brooding of specimens translocated to Bembridge, Isle of Wight, commenced in May, earlier than previously observed in British waters, and continued until September. The stage of embryo development at Bembridge in mid-August was comparable to that of the large population at Lyme Regis, Dorset 100 km further west. However the size of brood per standard body weight was greater at Lyme Regis. Factors influencing the rate of colonization and further geographic range extension of the species as a possible result of climate change, are discussed.

Variability in northwards extension of warm water copepods in the NE Pacific

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been deployed in the NE Pacific on two intersecting transects since 2000. Many deployments included a temperature sensor providing in situ temperature data to supplement the species abundance data for 1300 samples. Twenty-nine copepod taxa were sufficiently abundant to examine their temperature-related distributions. Groups of warm- and cold-water species were identified, with overlapping distributions between 48 and 588N. Recent fluctuations in ocean climate, from the warmest year on record in 2005 to one of the coldest in decades in 2008, provided ideal conditions to observe temperature-related interannual variability. The abundance and northwards extension of warm water species were significantly positively correlated with mean annual temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The cold water species showed no correlations with temperature/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) within the study region; however, if the 4 years of sampling that extended south to 398N were examined separately, there was a strong relationship between temperature/PDO and the southern extent of subarctic copepods. Under warm ocean conditions, the range overlap of the two groups will increase as warm water species extend northwards, causing an increase in copepod diversity. Since warm water species are generally smaller and nutritionally poorer, this has implications for higher trophic levels

Is Northern Ireland abnormal? An extension of the sociological debate on religion in modern Britain

This article places Northern Ireland within the unfolding sociological debate on religion in modern Britain. It measures secularization along Casanova’s three dimensions (1994): religious differentiation, decline and privatization. It finds that Northern Ireland has, in common with Britain, high levels of religious differentiation, grey areas of religious belief and little convinced secularism. However, Northern Ireland differs in that it has higher levels of religious affiliation and practice, and religion plays more roles in civil society than it does in other parts of Britain. The article explores the role of conflict in forming these religious trends, asking if they represent a persistence of the sacred, or simply mask deeper ethnic divisions. It concludes that the social dimensions of religion are just as important as the supernatural, and that they often inform each other. Finally, it suggests that the dynamics of religious change are comparable across regions and, as such, Northern Ireland might be a useful case study for British policy makers, particularly as it becomes increasingly multicultural and religiously plural.

Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui.

1. Barnacles are a good model organism for the study of open populations with space-limited recruitment. These models are applicable to other species with open supply of new individuals and resource limitation. The inclusion of space in models leads to reductions in recruitment with increasing density, and thus predictions of population size and stability are possible. 2. Despite the potential generality of a demographic theory for open space-limited populations, the models currently have a narrow empirical base. In this study, a model for an open population with space-limited recruitment was extended to include size-specific survival and promotions to any size class. The assumptions of this model were tested using data from a pan-European study of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward. Two models were constructed: a 6-month model and a periodic annual model. Predicted equilibria and their stabilities were compared between shores. 3. Tests of model assumptions supported the extension of the theory to include promotions to any size class. Mortality was found to be size-specific and density independent. Studied populations were open, with recruitment proportional to free space. 4. The 6-month model showed a significant interaction between time and location for equilibrium free space. This may have been due to contrasts in the timing of structuring processes (i.e. creating and filling space) between Mediterranean and Atlantic systems. Integration of the 6-month models into a periodic annual model removed the differences in equilibrium-free space between locations. 5. Model predictions show a remarkable similarity between shores at a European scale. Populations were persistent and all solutions were stable. This reflects the apparent absence of density-dependent mortality and a high adult survivorship in C. montagui. As populations are intrinsically stable, observations of fluctuations in density are directly attributable to variations in the environmental forcing of recruitment or mortality

Optimisation of source/drain extension region profile for suppression of short channel effects in sub-50 nm DG SOI MOSFETs with high- k gate dielectrics

Novel technology dependent scaling parameters i.e. spacer to gradient ratio and effective channel length (Leff) are proposed for source/drain engineered DG MOSFET, and their significance in minimizing short channel effects (SCES) in high-k gate dielectrics is discussed in detail. Results show that a high-k dielectric should be associated with a higher spacer to gradient ratio to minimise SCEs The analytical model agrees with simulated data over the entire range of spacer widths, doping gradients, high-k gate dielectrics and effective channel lengths.

Extension of the Ye and Shreeve group contribution method for density estimation of ionic liquids in a wide range of temperatures and pressures

An extension of the Ye and Shreeve group contribution method [C. Ye, J.M. Shreeve, J. Phys. Chem. A 111 (2007) 1456–1461] for the estimation of densities of ionic liquids (ILs) is here proposed. The new version here presented allows the estimation of densities of ionic liquids in wide ranges of temperature and pressure using the previously proposed parameter table. Coefficients of new density correlation proposed were estimated using experimental densities of nine imidazolium-based ionic liquids. The new density correlation was tested against experimental densities available in literature for ionic liquids based on imidazolium, pyridinium, pyrrolidinium and phosphonium cations. Predicted densities are in good agreement with experimental literature data in a wide range of temperatures (273.15–393.15 K) and pressures (0.10–100 MPa). For imidazolium-based ILs, the mean percent deviation (MPD) is 0.45% and 1.49% for phosphonium-based ILs. A low MPD ranging from 0.41% to 1.57% was also observed for pyridinium and pyrrolidinium-based ILs.