Recurrence of particles in static and time varying oval billiards

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Evaluating distributed time-varying generation through a multiobjective index

In the last decade, distributed generation, with its various technologies, has increased its presence in the energy mix presenting distribution networks with challenges in terms of evaluating the technical impacts that require a wide range of network operational effects to be qualified and quantified. The inherent time-varying behavior of demand and distributed generation (particularly when renewable sources are used), need to be taken into account since considering critical scenarios of loading and generation may mask the impacts. One means of dealing with such complexity is through the use of indices that indicate the benefit or otherwise of connections at a given location and for a given horizon. This paper presents a multiobjective performance index for distribution networks with time-varying distributed generation which consider a number of technical issues. The approach has been applied to a medium voltage distribution network considering hourly demand and wind speeds. Results show that this proposal has a better response to the natural behavior of loads and generation than solely considering a single operation scenario.

The propagator for a charged oscillator with a time-dependent mass in a time-varying electromagnetic field

We make a change of variables and a time reparametrization in the Schrödinger equation in order to obtain the propagator of a charged oscillator with a time-dependent mass and frequency under the influence of time-varying electric and magnetic fields, in terms of the simple propagators of harmonic oscillators with constant frequencies and masses. We also discuss the Jackiw transformation and others as a particular case of ours. © 1991.

Temporal evolution of sulfated zirconia sol-gel during dip coating: Analysis of mass drainage with time-varying refractive index

The formation of sulfated zirconia films from a sol-gel derived aqueous suspension is subjected to double-optical monitoring during batch dip coating. Interpretation of interferometric patterns, previously obscured by a variable refractive index, is now made possible by addition of its direct measurement by a polarimetric technique in real time. Significant sensitivity of the resulting physical thickness and refractive index curves (uncertainties of ±7 nm and ±0.005, respectively) to temporal film evolution is shown under different withdrawal speeds. As a first contribution to quantitative understanding of temporal film formation with varying nanostructure during dip coating, detailed analysis is directed to the stage of the process dominated by mass drainage, whose simple modeling with temporal t-1/2 dependence is verified experimentally. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

The effect of a myocardial infarction on the normalized time-varying elastance curve

It has been suggested that the shape of the normalized time-varying elastance curve [E(n)(t(n))] is conserved in different cardiac pathologies. We hypothesize, however, that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively after myocardial infarction (MI). Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 9) were anesthetized, and the left anterior descending coronary artery was ligated to provoke the MI. A sham-operated control group (CTRL) (n = 10) was treated without the MI. Two months later, a conductance catheter was inserted into the left ventricle (LV). The LV pressure and volume were measured and the E(n)(t(n)) derived. Slopes of E(n)(t(n)) during the preejection period (alpha(PEP)), ejection period (alpha(EP)), and their ratio (beta = alpha(EP)/alpha(PEP)) were calculated, together with the characteristic decay time during isovolumic relaxation (tau) and the normalized elastance at end diastole (E(min)(n)). MI provoked significant LV chamber dilatation, thus a loss in cardiac output (-33%), ejection fraction (-40%), and stroke volume (-30%) (P < 0.05). Also, it caused significant calcium increase (17-fold), fibrosis (2-fold), and LV hypertrophy. End-systolic elastance dropped from 0.66 +/- 0.31 mmHg/microl (CTRL) to 0.34 +/- 0.11 mmHg/microl (MI) (P < 0.05). Normalized elastance was significantly reduced in the MI group during the preejection, ejection, and diastolic periods (P < 0.05). The slope of E(n)(t(n)) during the alpha(PEP) and beta were significantly altered after MI (P < 0.05). Furthermore, tau and end-diastolic E(min)(n) were both significantly augmented in the MI group. We conclude that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively in all phases of the heart cycle, between normal and hearts post-MI. This should be considered when utilizing the single-beat concept.

Assessments and Computational Simulations in Support of a Time-Varying Mass Flow Rate Measurement Technique for Pulsatile Gas Flow

This thesis covers the correction, and verification, development, and implementation of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for an orifice plate meter. Past results were corrected and further expanded on with compressibility effects of acoustic waves being taken into account. One dynamic pressure difference transducer measures the time-varying differential pressure across the orifice meter. A dynamic absolute pressure measurement is also taken at the inlet of the orifice meter, along with a suitable temperature measurement of the mean flow gas. Together these three measurements allow for an incompressible CFD simulation (using a well-tested and robust model) for the cross-section independent time-varying mass flow rate through the orifice meter. The mean value of this incompressible mass flow rate is then corrected to match the mean of the measured flow rate( obtained from a Coriolis meter located up stream of the orifice meter). Even with the mean and compressibility corrections, significant differences in the measured mass flow rates at two orifice meters in a common flow stream were observed. This means that the compressibility effects associated with pulsatile gas flows is significant in the measurement of the time-varying mass flow rate. Future work (with the approach and initial runs covered here) will provide an indirect verification of the reported mass flow rate measurements.

Time-varying signal analysis to detect high-altitude periodic breathing in climbers ascending to extreme altitude.

This work investigates the performance of cardiorespiratory analysis detecting periodic breathing (PB) in chest wall recordings in mountaineers climbing to extreme altitude. The breathing patterns of 34 mountaineers were monitored unobtrusively by inductance plethysmography, ECG and pulse oximetry using a portable recorder during climbs at altitudes between 4497 and 7546 m on Mt. Muztagh Ata. The minute ventilation (VE) and heart rate (HR) signals were studied, to identify visually scored PB, applying time-varying spectral, coherence and entropy analysis. In 411 climbing periods, 30-120 min in duration, high values of mean power (MP(VE)) and slope (MSlope(VE)) of the modulation frequency band of VE, accurately identified PB, with an area under the ROC curve of 88 and 89%, respectively. Prolonged stay at altitude was associated with an increase in PB. During PB episodes, higher peak power of ventilatory (MP(VE)) and cardiac (MP(LF)(HR) ) oscillations and cardiorespiratory coherence (MP(LF)(Coher)), but reduced ventilation entropy (SampEn(VE)), was observed. Therefore, the characterization of cardiorespiratory dynamics by the analysis of VE and HR signals accurately identifies PB and effects of altitude acclimatization, providing promising tools for investigating physiologic effects of environmental exposures and diseases.