The Feedback Effect of Intensity of Ionizing Radiation With the Light Ions Content in Atmosphere. Paradox (the Tbilisi Type of a Smog), or Usual Phenomenon for the Strongly Pollution Cities?.

თბილისში მსუბუქი იონების, რადონის და გალაქტიკური კოსმოსური სხივების ნეიტრონული კომპონენტის ინტენსივობის 2009-2010 წლებში კომპლექსური მონიტორინგის მონაცემების მიხედვით გამოვლენილია მაიონიზებელი გამოსხივების ინტენსივობისა და ატმოსფეროში მსუბუქი იონების შემცველობის უკუკავშირის ეფექტი.

Proposal Intensity Adequacy of Expiratory Effort and Heart Rate Behavior During the Valsalva Maneuver in Preadolescents

Background: When performing the Valsalva maneuver (VM), adults and preadolescents produce the same expiratory resistance values. Objective: To analyze heart rate (HR) in preadolescents performing VM, and propose a new method for selecting expiratory resistance. Method: The maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) was measured in 45 sedentary children aged 9-12 years who subsequently performed VM for 20 s using an expiratory pressure of 60%, 70%, or 80% of MEP. HR was measured before, during, and after VM. These procedures were repeated 30 days later, and the data collected in the sessions (E1, E2) were analyzed and compared in periods before, during (0-10 and 10-20 s), and after VM using nonparametric tests. Results: All 45 participants adequately performed VM in E1 and E2 at 60% of MEP. However, only 38 (84.4%) and 25 (55.5%) of the participants performed the maneuver at 70% and 80% of MEP, respectively. The HR delta measured during 0-10 s and 10-20 s significantly increased as the expiratory effort increased, indicating an effective cardiac autonomic response during VM. However, our findings suggest the VM should not be performed at these intensities. Conclusion: HR increased with all effort intensities tested during VM. However, 60% of MEP was the only level of expiratory resistance that all participants could use to perform VM. Therefore, 60% of MEP may be the optimal expiratory resistance that should be used in clinical practice.

Population fluctuations of calliphorid species (Diptera, Calliphoridae) in the Biological Reserve of Tinguá, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The purpose of this work was to determine the diversity and population fluctuations of calliphorid flies in the Biological Reserve of Tinguá (ReBio-Tinguá), Nova Iguaçu, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and to correlate their occurrence with the environmental variables of temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. Specimens of Diptera were collected monthly between June 2002 and January 2005 using four traps placed at four points along a trail and exposed for 48 hours. The traps were baited with sardines and the trapped insects were stored in 70% alcohol. It was collected 8,528 calliphorids, thirteen species were identified among the blowflies including Laneela nigripes Guimarães 1977, Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794), C. albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), C. putoria (Wiedemann, 1830), Chloroprocta idioidea (Robineau-Devoidy, 1830), Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius, 1775), Hemilucilia semidiaphana (Rondani, 1850), H. segmentaria (Fabricius, 1805), Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann,1819), L. cuprina (Wiedemann, 1830), Paralucilia pseudolyrcea (Mello, 1969), Mesembrinella sp. and Eumesembrinella pauciseta (Aldrich, 1922). No significant correlation was found between the abundance of blowflies and the temperature and relative air humidity. Only C. megacephala and C. albiceps showed a positive and significant correlation with rainfall. An analysis of grouping by month (UPGMA) revealed no seasonal difference in the composition of the community, indicating that the community of calliphorid flies is probably more influenced by the ecological niches occupied by each species than by the seasons of the year.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.

Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.

The demand for intensity versus frequency of alcohol consumption: Evidence from rural Australia

This paper develops a theoretical model for the demand of alcohol where intensity and frequency of consumption are separate choices made by individuals in order to maximize their utility. While distinguishing between intensity and frequency of consumption may be unimportant for many goods, this is clearly not the case with alcohol where the likelihood of harm depends not only on the total consumed but also on the pattern of use. The results from the theoretical model are applied to data from rural Australia in order to investigate the factors that affect the patterns of alcohol use for this population group. This research can play an important role in informing policies by identifying those factors which influence preferences for patterns of risky alcohol use and those groups and communities who are most at risk of harm.

Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model

This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

Phylogeographical footprints of the Strait of Gibraltar and Quaternary climatic fluctuations in the western Mediterranean: a case study with the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula (Mammalia: Soricidae).

We used mitochondrial cyt b sequences to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Crocidura russula (sensu lato) populations across the Strait of Gibraltar, western Europe, Maghreb, and the Mediterranean and Atlantic islands. This revealed very low genetic divergence between European and Moroccan populations. The application of a molecular clock previously calibrated for shrews suggested that the separation of European from Moroccan lineages occurred less than 60 000 bp, which is at least 5 million years (Myr) after the reopening of the Strait of Gibraltar. This means that an overwater dispersal event was responsible for the observed phylogeographical structure. In contrast, genetic analyses revealed that Moroccan populations were highly distinct from Tunisian ones. According to the molecular clock, these populations separated about 2.2 million years ago (Ma), a time marked by sharp alternations of dry and humid climates in the Maghreb. The populations of the Mediterranean islands Ibiza, Pantelleria, and Sardinia were founded from Tunisian populations by overwater dispersal. In conclusion, overwater dispersal across the Strait of Gibraltar, probably assisted by humans, is possible for small terrestrial vertebrates. Moreover, as in Europe, Quaternary climatic fluctuations had a major effect on the phylogeographical structure of the Maghreb biota.

Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

Productivity shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated endogenous growth model with human capital

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.

Firm size and trade secret intensity: evidence from the Economic Espionage Act

This paper considers trade secrecy as an appropriation mechanism in the context ofb the US Economic Espionage Act (EEA) 1996. We examine the relation between trade secret intensity and firm size, using a cross section of 95 court cases. The paper builds on extant work in three respects. First, we create a unique body of evidence, using EEA prosecutions from 1996 to 2008. Second, we use an econometric approach to measurement, estimation and hypothesis testing. This allows us comprehensively to test the robustness of findings. Third, we focus on objectively measured valuations, instead of the subjective, self-reported values used elsewhere. We find a stable, robust value for the elasticity of trade secret intensity with respect to firm size, which indicates that a 10% reduction in firm size leads to a 7% increase in trade secret intensity. We find that this result is not sensitive to industrial sector, sample trimming, or functional form.

Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

Variation in the intensity of inbreeding depression among successive life-cycle stages and generations in gynodioecious Silene vulgaris (Caryophyllaceae).

Inbreeding depression is one of the hypotheses explaining the maintenance of females within gynodioecious plant populations. However, the measurement of fitness components in selfed and outcrossed progeny depends on life-cycle stage and the history of inbreeding. Comparative data indicate that strong inbreeding depression is more likely to occur at later life-cycle stages. We used hermaphrodite individuals of Silene vulgaris originating from three populations located in different valleys in the Swiss Alps to investigate the effect of two generations of self- and cross-fertilization on fitness components among successive stages of the life cycle in a glasshouse experiment. We detected significant inbreeding depression for most life-cycle stages including: the number of viable and aborted seeds per fruit, probability of germination, above ground biomass, probability of flowering, number of flowers per plant, flower size and pollen viability. Overall, the intensity of inbreeding depression increased among successive stages of the life cycle and cumulative inbreeding depression was significantly stronger in the first generation (delta approximately 0.5) compared with the second generation (delta approximately 0.35). We found no evidence for synergistic epistasis in our experiment. Our finding of more intense inbreeding depression during later stages of the life cycle may help to explain the maintenance of females in gynodioecious populations of S. vulgaris because purging of genetic load is less likely to occur.