Individual-based modelling of bacterial cultures to study the lag ohase

Els bacteris són la forma dominant de vida del planeta: poden sobreviure en medis molt adversos, i en alguns casos poden generar substàncies que quan les ingerim ens són tòxiques. La seva presència en els aliments fa que la microbiologia predictiva sigui un camp imprescindible en la microbiologia dels aliments per garantir la seguretat alimentària. Un cultiu bacterià pot passar per quatre fases de creixement: latència, exponencial, estacionària i de mort. En aquest treball s’ha avançat en la comprensió dels fenòmens intrínsecs a la fase de latència, que és de gran interès en l’àmbit de la microbiologia predictiva. Aquest estudi, realitzat al llarg de quatre anys, s’ha abordat des de la metodologia Individual-based Modelling (IbM) amb el simulador INDISIM (INDividual DIScrete SIMulation), que ha estat millorat per poder fer-ho. INDISIM ha permès estudiar dues causes de la fase de latència de forma separada, i abordar l’estudi del comportament del cultiu des d’una perspectiva mesoscòpica. S’ha vist que la fase de latència ha de ser estudiada com un procés dinàmic, i no definida per un paràmetre. L’estudi de l’evolució de variables com la distribució de propietats individuals entre la població (per exemple, la distribució de masses) o la velocitat de creixement, han permès distingir dues etapes en la fase de latència, inicial i de transició, i aprofundir en la comprensió del que passa a nivell cel•lular. S’han observat experimentalment amb citometria de flux diversos resultats previstos per les simulacions. La coincidència entre simulacions i experiments no és trivial ni casual: el sistema estudiat és un sistema complex, i per tant la coincidència del comportament al llarg del temps de diversos paràmetres interrelacionats és un aval a la metodologia emprada en les simulacions. Es pot afirmar, doncs, que s’ha verificat experimentalment la bondat de la metodologia INDISIM.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population.

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.

Challenging recommended oral and intravenous voriconazole doses for improved efficacy and safety: population pharmacokinetics-based analysis of adult patients with invasive fungal infections.

BACKGROUND: Recommended oral voriconazole (VRC) doses are lower than intravenous doses. Because plasma concentrations impact efficacy and safety of therapy, optimizing individual drug exposure may improve these outcomes. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) was performed on 505 plasma concentration measurements involving 55 patients with invasive mycoses who received recommended VRC doses. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. VRC clearance was 5.2 L/h, the volume of distribution was 92 L, the absorption rate constant was 1.1 hour(-1), and oral bioavailability was 0.63. Severe cholestasis decreased VRC elimination by 52%. A large interpatient variability was observed on clearance (coefficient of variation [CV], 40%) and bioavailability (CV 84%), and an interoccasion variability was observed on bioavailability (CV, 93%). Lack of response to therapy occurred in 12 of 55 patients (22%), and grade 3 neurotoxicity occurred in 5 of 55 patients (9%). A logistic multivariate regression analysis revealed an independent association between VRC trough concentrations and probability of response or neurotoxicity by identifying a therapeutic range of 1.5 mg/L (>85% probability of response) to 4.5 mg/L (<15% probability of neurotoxicity). Population-based simulations with the recommended 200 mg oral or 300 mg intravenous twice-daily regimens predicted probabilities of 49% and 87%, respectively, for achievement of 1.5 mg/L and of 8% and 37%, respectively, for achievement of 4.5 mg/L. With 300-400 mg twice-daily oral doses and 200-300 mg twice-daily intravenous doses, the predicted probabilities of achieving the lower target concentration were 68%-78% for the oral regimen and 70%-87% for the intravenous regimen, and the predicted probabilities of achieving the upper target concentration were 19%-29% for the oral regimen and 18%-37% for the intravenous regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Higher oral than intravenous VRC doses, followed by individualized adjustments based on measured plasma concentrations, improve achievement of the therapeutic target that maximizes the probability of therapeutic response and minimizes the probability of neurotoxicity. These findings challenge dose recommendations for VRC.

A cell-based model of extracellular-matrix-guided endothelial cell migration during angiogenesis.

Angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels sprouting from existing ones, occurs in several situations like wound healing, tissue remodeling, and near growing tumors. Under hypoxic conditions, tumor cells secrete growth factors, including VEGF. VEGF activates endothelial cells (ECs) in nearby vessels, leading to the migration of ECs out of the vessel and the formation of growing sprouts. A key process in angiogenesis is cellular self-organization, and previous modeling studies have identified mechanisms for producing networks and sprouts. Most theoretical studies of cellular self-organization during angiogenesis have ignored the interactions of ECs with the extra-cellular matrix (ECM), the jelly or hard materials that cells live in. Apart from providing structural support to cells, the ECM may play a key role in the coordination of cellular motility during angiogenesis. For example, by modifying the ECM, ECs can affect the motility of other ECs, long after they have left. Here, we present an explorative study of the cellular self-organization resulting from such ECM-coordinated cell migration. We show that a set of biologically-motivated, cell behavioral rules, including chemotaxis, haptotaxis, haptokinesis, and ECM-guided proliferation suffice for forming sprouts and branching vascular trees.

A cohort-based analysis of the evolution of lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution by men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.

Laser scanning-based recognition of rotational movements on a deep seated gravitational instability: The Cinque Torri case (North-Eastern Italian Alps)

The Cinque Torri group (Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy) is an articulated system of unstable carbonatic rock monoliths located in a very important tourism area and therefore characterized by a significant risk. The instability phenomena involved represent an example of lateral spreading developed over a larger deep seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) area. After the recent fall of a monolith of more than 10 000 m3, a scientific study was initiated to monitor the more unstable sectors and to characterize the past movements as a fundamental tool for predicting future movements and hazard assessment. To achieve greater insight on the ongoing lateral spreading process, a method for a quantitative analysis of rotational movements associated with the lateral spreading has been developed, applied and validated. The method is based on: i) detailed geometrical characterization of the area by means of laser scanner techniques; ii) recognition of the discontinuity sets and definition of a reference frame for each set, iii) correlation between the obtained reference frames related to a specific sector and a stable external reference frame, and iv) determination of the 3D rotations in terms of Euler angles to describe the present settlement of the Cinque Torri system with respect to the surrounding stable areas. In this way, significant information on the processes involved in the fragmentation and spreading of a former dolomitic plateau into different rock cliffs has been gained. The method is suitable to be applied to similar case studies.

Externalizing disorders and substance use: empirically derived subtypes in a population-based sample of adults.

PURPOSE: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), conduct disorder (CD), and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) are common externalizing disorders of childhood. The common effects of these disorders on substance abuse need further investigation. The current study investigated the joint clusters of childhood/adolescence ADHD, CD, and ODD, and their influence on substance abuse/dependence in a population-based sample of adults. METHODS: The data were drawn from the PsyCoLaus study (n = 3,720) conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland. The population-based sample included 238 subjects meeting criteria for ADHD/ODD/CD diagnoses before the age of 15. Latent class analyses (LCA) were performed to derive comorbidity subtypes, which were subsequently characterized with respect to psychosocial correlates and substance use. RESULTS: The best fit in LCAs was achieved with three latent classes: an ADHD subtype (35.7 %); an externalizing multimorbid subtype (33.6 %) involving ODD, ADHD, and CD; and a third subtype with CD (30.7 %). The CD subtype showed the highest association with substance use. Apart from this, the externalizing multimorbid subtype was also significantly linked to substance use. The ADHD subtype had only elevated frequencies for alcohol dependence in comparison with subjects that had no history of ADHD, ODD, and CD during childhood or adolescence. Finally, important interactions between subtypes and sex were observed with regard to substance use. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence showing that subtyping the externalizing disorders, ADHD, ODD and CD, along their comorbidity patterns leads to important differences regarding substance use. This could have implications for the etiology, prevention, and treatment of substance use disorders.

Paper 3: EUROCAT data quality indicators for population-based registries of congenital anomalies.

The European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network of population-based congenital anomaly registries is an important source of epidemiologic information on congenital anomalies in Europe covering live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. EUROCAT's policy is to strive for high-quality data, while ensuring consistency and transparency across all member registries. A set of 30 data quality indicators (DQIs) was developed to assess five key elements of data quality: completeness of case ascertainment, accuracy of diagnosis, completeness of information on EUROCAT variables, timeliness of data transmission, and availability of population denominator information. This article describes each of the individual DQIs and presents the output for each registry as well as the EUROCAT (unweighted) average, for 29 full member registries for 2004-2008. This information is also available on the EUROCAT website for previous years. The EUROCAT DQIs allow registries to evaluate their performance in relation to other registries and allows appropriate interpretations to be made of the data collected. The DQIs provide direction for improving data collection and ascertainment, and they allow annual assessment for monitoring continuous improvement. The DQI are constantly reviewed and refined to best document registry procedures and processes regarding data collection, to ensure appropriateness of DQI, and to ensure transparency so that the data collected can make a substantial and useful contribution to epidemiologic research on congenital anomalies.