Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination and statistical treatment of short-circuit currents for faults on the lines of networks of 440 kV CESP system

The distribution of short-circuit current is investigated by means of two methods, one direct and the other analytic; both methods consider uniform probability distribution of line faults. In the direct method, the procedure consists of calculating fault currents at equidistant points along the line, starting from one of the end points and considering the other end open. The magnitude of the current is classified according to Brazilian standards (regulation NBR-7118). The analytic method assumes that the distribution of short-circuit currents through the busbar and the distribution of the line length connected to it are known, as well as the independence of values. The method is designed to determine the probability that fault currents through a line will surpass the pre-established magnitude, thus generating frequency distribution curves of short-circuit currents along the lines.

The temperature dependence of the QCD running coupling

We study the running of the QCD coupling with the momentum squared (Q 2) and the temperature scales in the high temperature limit (T > Tc), using a mass dependent renormalization scheme to build the Renormalization Group Equations. The approach used guaranty gauge invariance, through the use of the Hard Thermal Loop approximation, and independence of the vertex chosen to renormalize the coupling. In general, the dependence of the coupling with the temperature is not logarithmical, although in the region Q2 ∼ T2 the logarithm approximation is reasonable. Finally, as known from Debye screening, color charge is screened in the coupling. The number of flavors, however, is anti-screened.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2004

Includes bibliography

Report of the Caribbean Forum: Shaping a Sustainable Development Agenda to Address the Caribbean Reality in the Twenty-first Century

Includes a statement of condolences presented to the Government and People of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela on the occasion of the passing of President Hugo Chavez

O gênero conto em Lives of Girls and Women: o labirinto de vozes em Heirs of the Living Body

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

ALBA-TCP: uma cultura de integração regional alternativa para a América Latina?

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Evaluation of e-readiness indices for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Invasion of the Indo-Pacific blenny Omobranchus punctatus (Perciformes: Blenniidae) on the Atlantic Coast of Central and South America

Nós examinamos 308 espécimes do blenídeo Omobranchus punctatus, de origem Indo-Pacífica, depositados em coleções de quatro museus. Os dados de distribuição foram analisados com o objetivo de avaliar a invasão das águas costeiras do Oceano Atlântico nas Américas do Sul e Central. Em sua área de distribuição original, O. punctatus ocorre em ambientes marinhos e estuarinos. Amostragens datadas de 1930 e de 2004 produziram 20 registros da espécie no Atlântico Oeste tropical, incluindo amostras do Panamá, Colômbia, Venezuela, Trinidade e Brasil. Neste trabalho nós apresentamos 17 novos registros em áreas da Venezuela e nordeste do Brasil. O padrão temporal dos dados (1930-2009) e a proximidade da maioria das áreas de amostragem a regiões portuárias indicam que a espécie foi inicialmente introduzida no Atlântico pela água de lastro de navios navegando na rota India-Trinidade. No Brasil, a introdução parece estar associada ao movimento de navios em torno das plataformas de petróleo. No Maranhão e no Pará, a introdução está associada ao movimento de navios entre os portos próximos à foz do rio Amazonas. Alternativamente, a expansão de área desta espécie ao longo da costa da América pode ter acontecido através de dispersão larval, acompanhando as correntes em direção ao norte. Nós recomendamos o monitoramento desta espécie, bem como o desenvolvimento de estudos sobre sua ecologia em ambientes do Atlântico ocidental agora ocupados por ela.

Análisis morfométrico, merístico, filogenético y filogeográfico del caballo de mar Hippocampus reidi (Ginsburg 1933) (Teleostei: Sygnathidae) de la costa nororiental da Venezuela

Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Zoologia) - IBB

As relações entre Brasil e Venezuela durante os governos de Lula e Chávez - 2003 a 2010

This work examines the political-economic relations between Brazil and Venezuela from 2003 to 2010, during the mandates of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Hugo Chavez Frías. After a historical overview of Venezuela, by showing the first approximations, it sets out the cooperation projects and makes a categorization and study of the International Acts signed during the studied period. The graphs and tables allowed a quantitative and qualitative analysis. The growth of the international trade is also considered and studied. The results show prospects that may contribute to cooperation and international trade between the two countries

Organic coffee under perspective of energy efficiency

The energy analysis development in this study contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of the organic coffee productive system, in particular to assess the independence of this system with respect to the use of industrialized input products. Thus, it provides information about the sustainability of that production system. Technical itineraries used in this study consist of energy expenditure made with coffee cultivation, according to the type, source and form of energy inputs, agricultural machines, equipment and labor force used in that production system. The energy expenditure, converted into energy units, quantified the input energy. And the organic coffee production, measured in kilograms of processed coffee beans, was the output energy. Primary data used in this study were obtained from organic coffee producers in the Southern region of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, in 2011. Energy balance identified was positive, since the estimated output energy was 626.465 MJ/ha and the energy expenditure was 112.998 MJ/ha, during the useful life of the crop.

Daily rhythms of native Brazilians in summer and winter

Access to electricity, granting relative independence of human activity on the dark phase of the day, has been pointed out as an important cause for the absence of seasonal changes in the daily rhythms of humans living in urban areas. Featuring a population of adult Guarani natives living without access to electricity, the present naturalistic study was designed to explore possible effects of different natural photoperiods and temperature on human circadian rhythms. We compared time series of wrist temperature (WT) and motor activity in winter and summer, respectively, 01 24 individuals aged 18 to 80. Twenty-four-hour rhythms of WT showed lower amplitudes and higher mean levels in summer, with no significant seasonal differences in acrophase. In contrast, rest-activity (RA) rhythms exhibited a significantly later rest on-and offset in summer, but no seasonal changes in duration, amplitude and mean level. We furthermore identified a phase advance of both the WT acrophase and rest onset with increasing age of the individuals. We concluded that in our study the effect of different seasons was reflected in the amplitude and mean level of the WT rhythm, as well the onset of nighttime rest, which was delayed in summer. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Functional independence in patients with chronic kidney disease being treated with haemodialysis

Purpose: This study has described and analysed the functional independence of the patients served in the haemodialysis services of a countryside town in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, using the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Method: The population considered was that of 214 patients being treated with haemodialysis, assessed in 2011, by means of a social, demographic and clinical report, a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and also the FIM. Results: The mean age of the population under study was 58.01 years, while the mean FIM point score was 118.38 points, showing a level of complete or modified independence within this population. Even though the level of dependence found has been low, this can be highlighted, within the locomotion domain, in the activity of going up and down stairs (10.28%). Age, complications arising from haemodialysis, and comorbidities show a negative correlation with FIM. Conclusion: Awareness of the level of functional independence of the patients being subjected to treatment with haemodialysis is essential in order to back up intervention for the improvement of nursing assistance provided to this population.

Cryptic Species of the Anastrepha fraterculus Complex (Diptera: Tephritidae): A Multivariate Approach for the Recognition of South American Morphotypes

Although a large amount of data have been published in past years on the taxonomic status of the Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann) species complex, there is still a need to know how many species this complex comprises, the distribution of each one, and their distinguishing features. In this study, we assessed the morphometric variability of 32 populations from the A. fraterculus complex, located in major biogeographical areas from the Neotropics. Multivariate techniques for analysis were applied to the measurements of 21 variables referring to the mesonotum, aculeus, and wing. For the first time, our results identified the presence of seven distinct morphotypes within this species complex. According to the biogeographical areas, populations occurring in the Mesoamerican dominion (Mexico, Guatemala, and Panama) were clustered within a single natural entity labeled as the "Mexican" morphotype; whereas in the northwestern South American dominion, samples fell into three distinct groups: the "Venezuelan" morphotype with a single population from the Caribbean lowlands of Venezuela, the "Andean" morphotype from the highlands of Venezuela and Colombia, and the third group or "Peruvian" morphotype comprised the samples from the Pacific coastal lowlands of Ecuador and Peru. Three additional groups were identified from the Chacoan and Paranaense sub-regions: the morphotype "Brazilian-1" was recognized as including the Argentinean samples with most pertaining to Brazil, and widely distributed in these biogeographical areas; the morphotype "Brazilian-2" was recognized as including two samples from the state of Sao Paulo (Ilha-Bela and Sao Sebastiao); whereas the morphotype "Brazilian-3" included a single population from Botucatu (state of Sao Paulo). Based on data published by previous authors showing genetic and karyotypic differentiation, as well as reproductive isolation, we have concluded that such morphotypes indeed represent natural groups and distinct taxonomic entities.