Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) surveys in the North American Intermountain West: utilizing citizen scientists to conduct monitoring across a broad geographic scale

The Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) is an open-country species breeding in the northern United States and Canada, and has likely experienced a long-term, range-wide, and substantial decline. However, the cause and magnitude of the decline is not well understood. We set forth to address the first two of six previously proposed conservation priorities to be addressed for this species: (1) better define habitat use and (2) improve population monitoring. We recruited 131 volunteers to survey over 6.2 million ha within the state of Idaho for Short-eared Owls during the 2015 breeding season. We surveyed 75 transects, 71 of which were surveyed twice, and detected Short-eared Owls on 27 transects. We performed multiscale occupancy modeling to identify habitat associations, and performed multiscale abundance modeling to generate a state-wide population estimate. Our results suggest that within the state of Idaho, Short-eared Owls are more often found in areas with marshland or riparian habitat or areas with greater amounts of sagebrush habitat at the 1750 ha transect scale. At the 50 ha point scale, Short-eared Owls tend to associate positively with fallow and bare dirt agricultural land and negatively with grassland. Cropland was not chosen at the broader transect scale suggesting that Short-eared Owls may prefer more heterogeneous landscapes. On the surface our results may seem contradictory to the presumed land use by a “grassland” species; however, the grasslands of the Intermountain West, consisting largely of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), lack the complex structure shown to be preferred by these owls. We suggest the local adaptation to agriculture represents the next best habitat to their historical native habitat preferences. Regardless, we have confirmed regional differences that should be considered in conservation planning for this species. Last, our results demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, and effectiveness of utilizing public participation in scientific research to achieve a robust sampling methodology across the broad geography of the Intermountain West.

The radiative effect of a fir canopy on a snowpack

Models of snow processes in areas of possible large-scale change need to be site independent and physically based. Here, the accumulation and ablation of the seasonal snow cover beneath a fir canopy has been simulated with a new physically based snow-soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme (Snow-SVAT) called SNOWCAN. The model was formulated by coupling a canopy optical and thermal radiation model to a physically based multilayer snow model. Simple representations of other forest effects were included. These include the reduction of wind speed and hence turbulent transfer beneath the canopy, sublimation of intercepted snow, and deposition of debris on the surface. This paper tests this new modeling approach fully at a fir site within Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho. Model parameters were determined at an open site and subsequently applied to the fir site. SNOWCAN was evaluated using measurements of snow depth, subcanopy solar and thermal radiation, and snowpack profiles of temperature, density, and grain size. Simulations showed good agreement with observations (e.g., fir site snow depth was estimated over the season with r(2) = 0.96), generally to within measurement error. However, the simulated temperature profiles were less accurate after a melt-freeze event, when the temperature discrepancy resulted from underestimation of the rate of liquid water flow and/or the rate of refreeze. This indicates both that the general modeling approach is applicable and that a still more complete representation of liquid water in the snowpack will be important.

Visualizing a logic of dependability arguments

This paper offers general guidelines for the development of effective visual languages. That is, languages for constructing diagrams that can be easily and readily interpreted and manipulated by the human reader. We use these guidelines first to examine classical AND/OR trees as a representation of logical proofs, and second to design and evaluate a visual language for representing proofs in LofA: a Logic of Dependability Arguments, for which we provide a brief motivation and overview.

A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

Assessing the sensitivities of a distributed snow model to forcing data resolution

Highly heterogeneous mountain snow distributions strongly affect soil moisture patterns; local ecology; and, ultimately, the timing, magnitude, and chemistry of stream runoff. Capturing these vital heterogeneities in a physically based distributed snow model requires appropriately scaled model structures. This work looks at how model scale—particularly the resolutions at which the forcing processes are represented—affects simulated snow distributions and melt. The research area is in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho. In this region, where there is a negative correlation between snow accumulation and melt rates, overall scale degradation pushed simulated melt to earlier in the season. The processes mainly responsible for snow distribution heterogeneity in this region—wind speed, wind-affected snow accumulations, thermal radiation, and solar radiation—were also independently rescaled to test process-specific spatiotemporal sensitivities. It was found that in order to accurately simulate snowmelt in this catchment, the snow cover needed to be resolved to 100 m. Wind and wind-affected precipitation—the primary influence on snow distribution—required similar resolution. Thermal radiation scaled with the vegetation structure (~100 m), while solar radiation was adequately modeled with 100–250-m resolution. Spatiotemporal sensitivities to model scale were found that allowed for further reductions in computational costs through the winter months with limited losses in accuracy. It was also shown that these modeling-based scale breaks could be associated with physiographic and vegetation structures to aid a priori modeling decisions.

Emplacement mechanism of the main granite pluton of the Lavras do Sul intrusive complex, South Brazil, determined by magnetic anisotropies

Magnetic fabric and rock magnetism studies were performed on apparently isotropic granite facies from the main intrusion of the Lavras do Sul Intrusive Complex pluton (LSIC, Rio Grande do Sul, South Brazil). This intrusion is roughly circular (similar to 12 x 13.5 km), composed of alkali-calcic and alkaline granitoids, with the latter occupying the margin of the pluton. Magnetic fabrics were determined by applying both anisotropy of low-field magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and anisotropy of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (AARM). The two fabrics are coaxial. The parallelism between AMS and AARM tensors excludes the presence of a single domain (SD) effect on the AMS fabric of the granites. Several rock-magnetism experiments performed in one specimen from each sampled site show that for all sites the magnetic susceptibility is dominantly carried by ferromagnetic minerals, while mainly magnetite carries the magnetic fabrics. Lineations and foliations in the granite facies were successful determined by applying magnetic methods. Magnetic lineations are gently plunging and roughly parallel to the boundaries of the pluton facies, except at the few sites in the central facies which have a radial orientation pattern. In contrast, the magnetic foliations tend to follow the contacts between the different granite facies. They are gently outerward-dipping inside the pluton, and become either steeply southwesterly dipping or vertical towards its margin. The lack of solid-state and subsolidus deformations at outcrop scale and in thin sections precludes deformation after full crystallization of the pluton. This evidence allows us to interpret the observed magnetic fabrics as primary in origin (magmatic) acquired when the rocks were solidified as a result of processes reflecting magma flow. The foliation pattern displays a dome-shaped form for the main LSIC-pluton. However, the alkaline granites which outcrop in the southern part of the studied area have an inward-dipping foliation, and the steeply plunging magnetic lineation suggests that this area could be part of a feeder zone. The magma ascent probably occurred due to ring-diking. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.