Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Vulnerability factors for disaster-induced child post-traumatic stress disorder : the case for low family resilience and previous mental illness

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate whether parent report of family resilience predicted children’s disaster-induced post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and general emotional symptoms, independent of a broad range of variables including event-related factors, previous child mental illness and social connectedness. ---------- Methods: A total of 568 children (mean age = 10.2 years, SD = 1.3) who attended public primary schools, were screened 3 months after Cyclone Larry devastated the Innisfail region of North Queensland. Measures included parent report on the Family Resilience Measure and Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ)–emotional subscale and child report on the PTSD Reaction Index, measures of event exposure and social connectedness. ---------- Results: Sixty-four students (11.3%) were in the severe–very severe PTSD category and 53 families (28.6%) scored in the poor family resilience range. A lower family resilience score was associated with child emotional problems on the SDQ and longer duration of previous child mental health difficulties, but not disaster-induced child PTSD or child threat perception on either bivariate analysis, or as a main or moderator variable on multivariate analysis (main effect: adjusted odds ratio (ORadj) = 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.13–2.44). Similarly, previous mental illness was not a significant predictor of child PTSD in the multivariate model (ORadj = 0.75, 95%CI = 0.16–3.61). ---------- Conclusion: In this post-disaster sample children with existing mental health problems and those of low-resilience families were not at elevated risk of PTSD. The possibility that the aetiological model of disaster-induced child PTSD may differ from usual child and adolescent conceptualizations is discussed.

Stress and coping among migrant labourers in urban Vietnam : an adaptation cycle and health vulnerabilities

Rural-urban migration continues to grow in many developing countries including Vietnam. The experience of stress and coping associated with this process may vary for people from different circumstances. However, there has been little research on migrants to date. This study adopts a qualitative approach to research on unregistered, male, migrant freelance labourers in urban Vietnam and to explore factors contributing to stress and coping among this population. The study revealed an array of stressors related to migrants' life experiences in urban space, including physical, financial and social factors. Coping was diverse, including problem-focused coping (PFC) and emotion-focused coping (EFC), pro-social and anti-social, active and passive. Less active and anti-social coping appeared common. Together, weak social network and lack of support from formal systems placed coping and adaptation in a cyclic relationship. The results highlight a multi-disciplinary approach to help cope and adapt effectively for these men.

Cultural determinants of stress in the construction industry

The need to better understand and deal with workplace stress has major implications for the construction industry, especially on a project level, because of its potential to directly impact on site productivity and safety, and ultimately, the achievement of project objectives. While there has been some understanding of the effect of workplace stress within the construction industry, the majority of these studies have explored individual determinants of workplace stress among construction professionals such as architects, engineers, quantity surveyors etc. To date, very little research has focused on workplace stress as encountered by construction site operatives. This is an important research deficiency as construction site operatives typically make up a significant percentage of on-site workforce and contribute most directly to project success. To address this imbalance in research, this paper proposes a theoretical framework to better understand site operatives’ experience of stress from a cultural perspective on three levels: individual, project and organizational which has been largely neglected in previous studies.

A 3D visualisation model applied to a thick, multi-layered alluvial groundwater system under stress : Condamine Valley, QLD

The upper Condamine River in southern Queensland has formed extensive alluvial deposits which have been used for irrigation of cotton crops for over 40 years. Due to excessive use and long term drought conditions these groundwater resources are under substantial threat. This condition is now recognised by all stakeholders, and Qld Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) are currently undertaking a water planning process for the Central Condamine Alluvium with water users and other stakeholders. DERM aims to effectively demonstrate the character of the groundwater system and its current status, and notably the continued long-term drawdown of the watertable. It was agreed that 3D visualisation was an ideal tool to achieve this. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed at QUT was utilised and the visualisation model developed in conjunction with DERM to achieve a planning-management tool for this particular application

Nonprofit organizational and work unit identification and the occupational stress process

Research investigating the transactional approach to the work stressor-employee adjustment relationship has described many negative main effects between perceived stressors in the workplace and employee outcomes. A considerable amount of literature, theoretical and empirical, also describes potential moderators of this relationship. Organizational identification has been established as a significant predictor of employee job-related attitudes. To date, research has neglected investigation of the potential moderating effect of organizational identification in the work stressor-employee adjustment relationship. On the basis of identity, subjective fit and sense of belonging literature it was predicted that higher perceptions of identification at multiple levels of the organization would mitigate the negative effect of work stressors on employee adjustment. It was expected, further, that more proximal, lower order identifications would be more prevalent and potent as buffers of stressors on strain. Predictions were tested with an employee sample from five organizations (N = 267). Hierarchical moderated multiple regression analyses revealed some support for the stress-buffering effects of identification in the prediction of job satisfaction and organizational commitment, particularly for more proximal (i.e., work unit) identification. These positive stress-buffering effects, however, were present for low identifiers in some situations. The present study represents an extension of the application of organizational identity theory by identifying the effects of organizational and workgroup identification on employee outcomes in the nonprofit context. Our findings will contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics in nonprofit organizations and therefore contribute to the development of strategy and interventions to deal with identity-based issues in nonprofits.

Stereotypes of Taiwanese salespeople at the service interface

Stereotypes of salespeople are common currency in US media outlets and research suggests that these stereotypes are uniformly negative. However, there is no reason to expect that stereotypes will be consistent across cultures. The present paper provides the first empirical examination of salesperson stereotypes in an Asian country, specifically Taiwan. Using accepted psychological methods, Taiwanese salesperson stereotypes are found to be twofold, with a negative stereotype being quite congruent with existing US stereotypes, but also a positive stereotype, which may be related to the specific culture of Taiwan.

Older adults, interface experience and cognitive decline

This paper describes an experiment undertaken to investigate intuitive interaction, particularly in older adults. Previous work has shown that intuitive interaction relies on past experience, and has also suggested that older people demonstrate less intuitive uses and slower times when completing set tasks with various devices. Similarly, this experiment showed that past experience with relevant products allowed people to use the interfaces of two different microwaves more quickly and intuitively. It also revealed that certain aspects of cognitive decline related to aging, such as central executive function, have more impact on time, correct uses and intuitive uses than chronological age. Implications of these results are discussed.

The synthesis of novel nitroxides and their application as small-molecule antioxidants and profluorescent probes for oxidative stress

The detection and potential treatment of oxidative stress in biological systems has been explored using isoindoline-based nitroxide radicals. A novel tetraethyl-fluorescein nitroxide was synthesised for its use as a profluorescent probe for redox processes in biological systems. This tetraethyl system, as well as a tetramethyl-fluorescein nitroxide, were shown to be sensitive and selective probes for superoxide in vitro. The redox environment of cellular systems was also explored using the tetramethylfluorescein species based on its reduction to the hydroxylamine. Flow cytometry was employed to assess the extent of nitroxide reduction, reflecting the overall cellular redox environment. Treatment of normal fibroblasts with rotenone and 2-deoxyglucose resulted in an oxidising cellular environment as shown by the lack of reduction of the fluorescein-nitroxide system. Assessment of the tetraethyl-fluorescein nitroxide system in the same way demonstrated its enhanced resistance to reduction and offers the potential to detect and image biologically relevant reactive oxygen species directly. Importantly, these profluorescent nitroxide compounds were shown to be more effective than the more widely used and commercially available probes for reactive oxygen species such as 2’,7’-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate. Fluorescence imaging of the tetramethyl-fluorescein nitroxide and a number of other rhodamine-nitroxide derivatives was undertaken, revealing the differential cellular localisation of these systems and thus their potential for the detection of redox changes in specific cellular compartments. As well as developing novel methods for the detection of oxidative stress, a number of novel isoindoline nitroxides were synthesised for their potential application as small-molecule antioxidants. These compounds incorporated known pharmacophores into the isoindoline-nitroxide structure in an attempt to increase their efficacy in biological systems. A primary and a secondary amine nitroxide were synthesised which incorporated the phenethylamine backbone of the sympathomimetic amine class of drugs. Initial assessment of the novel primary amine derivative indicated a protective effect comparable to that of 5-carboxy-1,1,3,3- tetramethylisoindolin-2-yloxyl. Methoxy-substituted nitroxides were also synthesised as potential antioxidants for their structural similarity to some amphetamine type stimulants. A copper-catalysed methodology provided access to both the mono- and di-substituted methoxy-nitroxides. Deprotection of the ethers in these compounds using boron tribromide successfully produced a phenolnitroxide, however the catechol moiety in the disubstituted derivative appeared to undergo reaction with the nitroxide to produce quinone-like degradation products. A novel fluoran-nitroxide was also synthesised from the methoxy-substituted nitroxide, providing a pH-sensitive spin probe. An amino-acid precursor containing a nitroxide moiety was also synthesised for its application as a dual-action antioxidant. N-Acetyl protection of the nitroxide radical was necessary prior to the Erlenmeyer reaction with N-acetyl glycine. Hydrolysis and reduction of the azlactone intermediate produced a novel amino acid precursor with significant potential as an effective antioxidant.

Exploring the Pro‐Am interface between production and produsage

This conference celebrates the passing of 40 years since the establishment of the Internet (dating this, presumably, to the first connection between two nodes on ARPANET in October 1969). For a gathering of media scholars such as this, however, it may be just as important not only to mark the first testing of the core technologies upon which much of our present‐day Net continues to build, but also to reflect on another recent milestone: the 20th anniversary of what is today arguably the chief interface through which billions around the world access and experience the Internet – the World Wide Web, launched by Tim Berners‐Lee in 1989.