Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

Dissemination of periodic mammography and patterns of use, by birth cohort, in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: In Catalonia (Spain) breast cancer mortality has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. The dissemination of early detection by mammography and the introduction of adjuvant treatments are among the possible causes of this decrease, and both were almost coincident in time. Thus, understanding how these procedures were incorporated into use in the general population and in women diagnosed with breast cancer is very important for assessing their contribution to the reduction in breast cancer mortality. In this work we have modeled the dissemination of periodic mammography and described repeat mammography behavior in Catalonia from 1975 to 2006. Methods: Cross-sectional data from three Catalan Health Surveys for the calendar years 1994, 2002 and 2006 was used. The dissemination of mammography by birth cohort was modeled using a mixed effects model and repeat mammography behavior was described by age and survey year. Results: For women born from 1938 to 1952, mammography clearly had a period effect, meaning that they started to have periodic mammograms at the same calendar years but at different ages. The age at which approximately 50% of the women were receiving periodic mammograms went from 57.8 years of age for women born in 1938–1942 to 37.3 years of age for women born in 1963–1967. Women in all age groups experienced an increase in periodic mammography use over time, although women in the 50–69 age group have experienced the highest increase. Currently, the target population of the Catalan Breast Cancer Screening Program, 50–69 years of age, is the group that self-reports the highest utilization of periodic mammograms, followed by the 40–49 age group. A higher proportion of women of all age groups have annual mammograms rather than biennial or irregular ones. Conclusion: Mammography in Catalonia became more widely implemented during the 1990s. We estimated when cohorts initiated periodic mammograms and how frequently women are receiving them. These two pieces of information will be entered into a cost-effectiveness model of early detection in Catalonia.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Epidemiology of foodborne Norovirus outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Noroviruses are one of the principal biological agents associated with the consumption of contaminated food. The objective of this study was to analyse the size and epidemiological characteristics of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. Methods: In all reported outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with food consumption, faecal samples of persons affected were analysed for bacteria and viruses and selectively for parasites. Study variables included the setting, the number of people exposed, age, sex, clinical signs and hospital admissions. The study was carried out from October 2004 to October 2005. Results: Of the 181 outbreaks reported during the study period, 72 were caused by Salmonella and 30 by norovirus (NoV); the incidence rates were 14.5 and 9.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In 50% of the NoV outbreaks and 27% of the bacterial outbreaks (p = 0.03) the number of persons affected was ≥10; 66.7% of NoV outbreaks occurred in restaurants; no differences in the attack rates were observed according to the etiology. Hospitalizations were more common (p = 0.03) in bacterial outbreaks (8.6%) than in NoV outbreaks (0.15%). Secondary cases accounted for 4% of cases in NoV outbreaks compared with 0.3% of cases in bacterial outbreaks (p < 0.001) Conclusion: Norovirus outbreaks were larger but less frequent than bacterial outbreaks, suggesting that underreporting is greater for NoV outbreaks. Food handlers should receive training on the transmission of infections in diverse situations. Very strict control measures on handwashing and environmental disinfection should be adopted in closed or partially-closed institutions.

Cost-effectiveness of early detection of breast cancer in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) causes more deaths than any other cancer among women in Catalonia. Early detection has contributed to the observed decline in BC mortality. However, there is debate on the optimal screening strategy. We performed an economic evaluation of 20 screening strategies taking into account the cost over time of screening and subsequent medical costs, including diagnostic confirmation, initial treatment, follow-up and advanced care. Methods: We used a probabilistic model to estimate the effect and costs over time of each scenario. The effect was measured as years of life (YL), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lives extended (LE). Costs of screening and treatment were obtained from the Early Detection Program and hospital databases of the IMAS-Hospital del Mar in Barcelona. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of different scenarios. Results: Strategies that start at ages 40 or 45 and end at 69 predominate when the effect is measured as YL or QALYs. Biennial strategies 50-69, 45-69 or annual 45-69, 40-69 and 40-74 were selected as cost-effective for both effect measures (YL or QALYs). The ICER increases considerably when moving from biennial to annual scenarios. Moving from no screening to biennial 50-69 years represented an ICER of 4,469€ per QALY. Conclusions: A reduced number of screening strategies have been selected for consideration by researchers, decision makers and policy planners. Mathematical models are useful to assess the impact and costs of BC screening in a specific geographical area.

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.

Aprofundir en el caracter social i transversal de la politica lingüística; treballar en i amb l’entorn; potenciar la proactivat i el diàleg; orientar a necessitats i aprofitar oportunitats: algunes claus de la política lingüística dels propers anys. Una reflexió argumentada

L’article reflexiona sobre les principals línies de treball que guien la política lingüística: la transversalitat, l’orientació a l’entorn, l’orientació a necessitats i l’aprofitament d’oportunitats.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Centrality and investment strategies at the beginning of industrialisation in mid-nineteenth-century Catalonia

We apply social networks analysis to the study of an important database on investment and companies" share in the Catalonia (Spain) of the nineteenth century. In contrast with most of the existing related literature, usually addressing power relationships across administration boards, we focus on the structure of interactions among individual investors and firms. Centrality analysis uncovers interesting roles played by certain economic sectors (e.g. textile and financial). Furthermore, the diverse composition (in terms of economic activity) of communities in the network (subgroups more densely connected internally than with the rest of the network) reveals a high investment diversification, which nicely agrees with a known characteristic of traditional Catalan business strategies.

Lyotard y La condició postmoderna, Vint-i-cinc anys després

L"any 1979 Jean-François Lyotard (1924-1998) publicava a París La condition postmoderne. Rapport sur le savoir, editat per Les Éditions de Minuit, obra en què es retratava l"home postmodern i que amb el pas dels anys s"ha convertit en una mena de clàssic del pensament contemporani. La tesi de fons del llibre -una obra encarregada per les autoritats del Quebec- és ben coneguda: el saber canvia d"estatut al mateix temps que les societats entren en l"era anomenada postindustrial, segons havien anunciat Daniel Bell i Alain Touraine. Per tant, la qüestió del saber en aquesta època postindustrial -que a grans trets coincideix amb un esperit d"època (Zeitgeist) que es pot identifi car amb la postmodernitat- cal situar-la en la perspectiva de les societats industrials avançades.

Tobacco control policies in hospitals before and after the implementation of a national smoking ban in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Diverse projects and guidelines to assist hospitals towards the attainment of comprehensive smoke-free policies have been developed. In 2006, Spain government passed a new smoking ban that reinforce tobacco control policies and banned completely smoking in hospitals. This study assesses the progression of tobacco control policies in the Catalan Network of Smokefree Hospitals before and after a comprehensive national smoking ban. Methods: We used the Self-Audit Questionnaire of the European Network for Smoke-free Hospitals to score the compliance of 9 policy standards (global score = 102). We used two crosssectional surveys to evaluate tobacco control policies before (2005) and after the implementation of a national smoking ban (2007) in 32 hospitals of Catalonia, Spain. We compared the means of the overall score in 2005 and 2007 according to the type of hospital, the number of beds, the prevalence of tobacco consumption, and the number of years as a smoke-free hospital. Results: The mean of the implementation score of tobacco control policies was 52.4 (95% CI:45.4-59.5) in 2005 and 71.6 (95% CI: 67.0-76.2) in 2007 with an increase of 36.7% (p < 0.01). The hospitals with greater improvement were general hospitals (48% increase; p < 0.01), hospitals with > 300 beds (41.1% increase; p < 0.01), hospitals with employees' tobacco consumption prevalence 35-39% (72.2% increase; p < 0.05) and hospitals that had recently implemented smoke-free policies (74.2% increase; p < 0.01). Conclusion: The national smoking ban appears to increase tobacco control activities in hospitals combined with other non-bylaw initiatives such as the Smoke-free Hospital Network.

Tobacco control policies in hospitals before and after the implementation of a national smoking ban in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Diverse projects and guidelines to assist hospitals towards the attainment of comprehensive smoke-free policies have been developed. In 2006, Spain government passed a new smoking ban that reinforce tobacco control policies and banned completely smoking in hospitals. This study assesses the progression of tobacco control policies in the Catalan Network of Smokefree Hospitals before and after a comprehensive national smoking ban. Methods: We used the Self-Audit Questionnaire of the European Network for Smoke-free Hospitals to score the compliance of 9 policy standards (global score = 102). We used two crosssectional surveys to evaluate tobacco control policies before (2005) and after the implementation of a national smoking ban (2007) in 32 hospitals of Catalonia, Spain. We compared the means of the overall score in 2005 and 2007 according to the type of hospital, the number of beds, the prevalence of tobacco consumption, and the number of years as a smoke-free hospital. Results: The mean of the implementation score of tobacco control policies was 52.4 (95% CI:45.4-59.5) in 2005 and 71.6 (95% CI: 67.0-76.2) in 2007 with an increase of 36.7% (p < 0.01). The hospitals with greater improvement were general hospitals (48% increase; p < 0.01), hospitals with > 300 beds (41.1% increase; p < 0.01), hospitals with employees' tobacco consumption prevalence 35-39% (72.2% increase; p < 0.05) and hospitals that had recently implemented smoke-free policies (74.2% increase; p < 0.01). Conclusion: The national smoking ban appears to increase tobacco control activities in hospitals combined with other non-bylaw initiatives such as the Smoke-free Hospital Network.

Characteristics of 2D convective structures in Catalonia (NE Spain): an analysis using radar data and GIS

Flood simulation studies use spatial-temporal rainfall data input into distributed hydrological models. A correct description of rainfall in space and in time contributes to improvements on hydrological modelling and design. This work is focused on the analysis of 2-D convective structures (rain cells), whose contribution is especially significant in most flood events. The objective of this paper is to provide statistical descriptors and distribution functions for convective structure characteristics of precipitation systems producing floods in Catalonia (NE Spain). To achieve this purpose heavy rainfall events recorded between 1996 and 2000 have been analysed. By means of weather radar, and applying 2-D radar algorithms a distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation is made. These data are introduced and analyzed with a GIS. In a first step different groups of connected pixels with convective precipitation are identified. Only convective structures with an area greater than 32 km2 are selected. Then, geometric characteristics (area, perimeter, orientation and dimensions of the ellipse), and rainfall statistics (maximum, mean, minimum, range, standard deviation, and sum) of these structures are obtained and stored in a database. Finally, descriptive statistics for selected characteristics are calculated and statistical distributions are fitted to the observed frequency distributions. Statistical analyses reveal that the Generalized Pareto distribution for the area and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution for the perimeter, dimensions, orientation and mean areal precipitation are the statistical distributions that best fit the observed ones of these parameters. The statistical descriptors and the probability distribution functions obtained are of direct use as an input in spatial rainfall generators.

Plant diversity across five vegetation belts in the Pyrenees (Catalonia, Spain)

In this paper we analyze the size and habitat partitioning of the vascular floras of five areas of the NE Iberian Peninsula, representing five distinct vegetation belts and three floristic regions: Mediterranean (basal belt), medio-European (submontane and montane belts) and Boreo-Alpine (subalpine and alpine belts). Each area covered over 1000 ha, and was fairly uniform in terms of potential vegetation, bedrock and bioclimate. They excluded large villages and field areas, the landscape being mainly natural or moderately anthropized.

Vint-i-cinc anys de política i planificació lingüístiques

Bon dia a tothom. Estic content, com també tots vostès, de ser present avui aquí en aquest acte de celebració dels 25 anys de la Revista de llengua i dret. Per començar, crec que és de justícia agrair i reconèixer l"impuls i la tasca de les persones que l"han liderada en aquest temps, i també dels responsables polítics que han cregut en aquest projecte i que hi han donat el suport imprescindible perquè pogués ser una realitat. Em toca a mi ocupar-me d"aquests vint-i-cinc anys de política i planificació lingüístiques centrant-me més aviat en la situació o situacions catalanes. Ho faré no tant a mode de balanç recopilatori sinó més aviat intentant veure què hem après en aquests anys que ens pugui servir per als que vénen. Miraré, doncs, el passat però amb la vista posada cap al futur.