Wilma Rudolph and daughter Djuana

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Olympic athlete Wilma Rudolph

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Ms. Magazine Mile track event at Madison Square Garden with Pat Carbine, Donna Da Varona, Althea Gibson, Bella Abzug, and Wilma Rudolph

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

HURDAT is the main historical archive of all tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, from 1851 to the present. HURDAT is maintained and updated annually by the National Hurricane Center at Miami, Florida. Today, HURDAT is widely used by research scientists, operational hurricane forecasters, insurance companies, emergency managers and others. HURDAT contains both systematic biases and random errors. Thus, the reanalysis of HURDAT is vital. For this thesis, HURDAT is reanalyzed for the period of 1954-1963. The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone in HURDAT is assessed in the light of 21st century understanding and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones are detected and analyzed. The resulting changes will be recommended to the National Hurricane Center Best Track Change Committee for inclusion in HURDAT.

Endogenous Risk Perception, Geospatial Characteristics and Temporal Variation in Hurricane Evacuation Behavior

The main focus of this thesis was to gain a better understanding about the dynamics of risk perception and its influence on people’s evacuation behavior. Another major focus was to improve our knowledge regarding geo-spatial and temporal variations of risk perception and hurricane evacuation behavior. A longitudinal dataset of more than eight hundred households were collected following two major hurricane events, Ivan and Katrina. The longitudinal survey data was geocoded and a geo-spatial database was integrated to it. The geospatial database was composed of distance, elevation and hazard parameters with respect to the respondent’s household location. A set of Bivariate Probit (BP) model suggests that geospatial variables have had significant influences in explaining hurricane risk perception and evacuation behavior during both hurricanes. The findings also indicated that people made their evacuation decision in coherence with their risk perception. In addition, people updated their hurricane evacuation decision in a subsequent similar event.

Does the Pareto Distribution of Hurricane Damage Inherit its Fat Tail from a Zipf Distribution of Assets at Hazard?

Tropical Cyclones are a continuing threat to life and property. Willoughby (2012) found that a Pareto (power-law) cumulative distribution fitted to the most damaging 10% of US hurricane seasons fit their impacts well. Here, we find that damage follows a Pareto distribution because the assets at hazard follow a Zipf distribution, which can be thought of as a Pareto distribution with exponent 1. The Z-CAT model is an idealized hurricane catastrophe model that represents a coastline where populated places with Zipf- distributed assets are randomly scattered and damaged by virtual hurricanes with sizes and intensities generated through a Monte-Carlo process. Results produce realistic Pareto exponents. The ability of the Z-CAT model to simulate different climate scenarios allowed testing of sensitivities to Maximum Potential Intensity, landfall rates and building structure vulnerability. The Z-CAT model results demonstrate that a statistical significant difference in damage is found when only changes in the parameters create a doubling of damage.

Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

Resilience and the cultural landscape : the case of the Lower Ninth Ward after Hurricane Katrina

Le but de cette recherche est d’évaluer l’importance du paysage culturel dans la résilience des communautés urbaines post-catastrophes. Ce travail se concentre sur le quartier du Lower Ninth Ward dans la ville de La Nouvelle-Orléans (États-Unis) après le passage de l’ouragan Katrina en 2005. Les catastrophes naturelles prennent une envergure et causent des dommages considérables lorsqu’elles touchent des villes. La reconstruction post -désastre est donc très dispendieuse pour les villes et les gouvernements, d’autant que certaines régions sont dévastées au point qu’elles doivent être reconstruites au complet. Cependant, le coût le plus lourd à assumer reste celui en vies humaines et si rebâtir les éléments concrets d’une ville est une tâche difficile à entreprendre, reconstruire une communauté est considérablement plus complexe. Dans le but de comprendre une telle démarche, cette recherche se concentre sur les éléments intangibles, comme l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, dont une communauté a besoin pour se reconstituer de façon durable et résiliente. Le concept de résilience est très contesté dans la littérature et plusieurs chercheurs se sont essayés à le mesurer. Cette recherche adopte une perspective critique sur le concept et le revisite d’un point de vue holistique pour mettre en lumière sa complexité. Cette démarche permet de remettre en question l’importance de mesurer un concept finalement en perpétuelle redéfinition dans le temps et selon les échelles géographiques. De plus, en établissant une relation entre résilience et paysage culturel, il a été possible de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience. Touchant à plusieurs disciplines (architecture de paysage, urbanisme et sociologie), cette recherche utilise une méthodologie qui reflète son aspect multidisciplinaire : les méthodes mixtes. Ces dernières permettent la collecte de données quantitatives et qualitatives qui produisent une vue globale de la situation post-Katrina à travers le regroupement de recensions statistiques, d’observations de terrain et d’articles de journaux. Parallèlement, des entretiens ont été réalisés avec des résidents du quartier ainsi qu’avec des professionnels pour mieux comprendre les différents points de vue. Cette méthodologie a permis de produire des résultats au niveau du cas d’étude autant qu’au niveau théorique. La recherche valide l’importance de prendre en compte le paysage culturel dans les situations post-catastrophes, (en particulier) dans la mesure où il s’agit d’un élément souvent négligé par les urbanistes et les acteurs locaux. En effet, les éléments constitutifs du paysage culturel tels que l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, participent d’un sentiment d'appartenance (« home ») et d’une volonté, pour les résidents, de reconstruire leurs habitations, leur communauté ainsi que leur quartier. Toutefois, il faut reconnaître que ces éléments ne suffisent pas à retrouver ce qu’ils ont perdu. Ainsi, l’étude du paysage culturel permet non seulement de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience, mais démontre également que cette dernière est une construction sociale.

"Natural" disasters as (neo-liberal) opportunity? Discussing post-hurricane Katrina urban regeneration in New Orleans

By providing a wide literature review, post-hurricane Katrina uneven urban regeneration in New Orleans is presented here by framing it within a historical perspective in order to underline how environmental threats too often seem to be not so much “natural” but rather man-made as well as to highlight both the reasons and the ways in which, in post-disaster reconstruction, competitive growth has been valued over equity, by directly benefiting those who were already the most advantaged. The aim is to highlight how environmental disasters can be considered as socially constructed phenomena, as they cannot be seen as a single event but rather as a process made by a series of progressive steps occurring within different spheres, which do not necessarily concern the environment only.

Resilience and the cultural landscape : the case of the Lower Ninth Ward after Hurricane Katrina

Le but de cette recherche est d’évaluer l’importance du paysage culturel dans la résilience des communautés urbaines post-catastrophes. Ce travail se concentre sur le quartier du Lower Ninth Ward dans la ville de La Nouvelle-Orléans (États-Unis) après le passage de l’ouragan Katrina en 2005. Les catastrophes naturelles prennent une envergure et causent des dommages considérables lorsqu’elles touchent des villes. La reconstruction post -désastre est donc très dispendieuse pour les villes et les gouvernements, d’autant que certaines régions sont dévastées au point qu’elles doivent être reconstruites au complet. Cependant, le coût le plus lourd à assumer reste celui en vies humaines et si rebâtir les éléments concrets d’une ville est une tâche difficile à entreprendre, reconstruire une communauté est considérablement plus complexe. Dans le but de comprendre une telle démarche, cette recherche se concentre sur les éléments intangibles, comme l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, dont une communauté a besoin pour se reconstituer de façon durable et résiliente. Le concept de résilience est très contesté dans la littérature et plusieurs chercheurs se sont essayés à le mesurer. Cette recherche adopte une perspective critique sur le concept et le revisite d’un point de vue holistique pour mettre en lumière sa complexité. Cette démarche permet de remettre en question l’importance de mesurer un concept finalement en perpétuelle redéfinition dans le temps et selon les échelles géographiques. De plus, en établissant une relation entre résilience et paysage culturel, il a été possible de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience. Touchant à plusieurs disciplines (architecture de paysage, urbanisme et sociologie), cette recherche utilise une méthodologie qui reflète son aspect multidisciplinaire : les méthodes mixtes. Ces dernières permettent la collecte de données quantitatives et qualitatives qui produisent une vue globale de la situation post-Katrina à travers le regroupement de recensions statistiques, d’observations de terrain et d’articles de journaux. Parallèlement, des entretiens ont été réalisés avec des résidents du quartier ainsi qu’avec des professionnels pour mieux comprendre les différents points de vue. Cette méthodologie a permis de produire des résultats au niveau du cas d’étude autant qu’au niveau théorique. La recherche valide l’importance de prendre en compte le paysage culturel dans les situations post-catastrophes, (en particulier) dans la mesure où il s’agit d’un élément souvent négligé par les urbanistes et les acteurs locaux. En effet, les éléments constitutifs du paysage culturel tels que l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, participent d’un sentiment d'appartenance (« home ») et d’une volonté, pour les résidents, de reconstruire leurs habitations, leur communauté ainsi que leur quartier. Toutefois, il faut reconnaître que ces éléments ne suffisent pas à retrouver ce qu’ils ont perdu. Ainsi, l’étude du paysage culturel permet non seulement de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience, mais démontre également que cette dernière est une construction sociale.

THE IMPACT OF UPPER-LEVEL PROCESSES ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF HURRICANE SANDY (2012)

The first part of this study examines the relative roles of frontogenesis and tropopause undulation in determining the intensity and structural changes of Hurricane Sandy (2012) using a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. A 138-h simulation reproduces Sandy’s four distinct development stages: (i) rapid intensification, (ii) weakening, (iii) steady maximum surface wind but with large continued sea-level pressure (SLP) falls, and (iv) re-intensification. Results show typical correlations between intensity changes, sea-surface temperature and vertical wind shear during the first two stages. The large SLP falls during the last two stages are mostly caused by Sandy’s moving northward into lower-tropopause regions associated with an eastward-propagating midlatitude trough, where the associated lower-stratospheric warm air wraps into the storm and its surrounding areas. The steady maximum surface wind occurs because of the widespread SLP falls with weak pressure gradients lacking significant inward advection of absolute angular momentum (AAM). Meanwhile, there is a continuous frontogenesis in the outer region during the last three stages. Cyclonic inward advection of AAM along each frontal rainband accounts for the continued expansion of the tropical-storm-force wind and structural changes, while deep convection in the eyewall and merging of the final two survived frontal rainbands generate a spiraling jet in Sandy’s northwestern quadrant, leading to its re-intensification prior to landfall. The physical, kinematic and dynamic aspects of an upper-level outflow layer and its possible impact on the re-intensification of Sandy are examined in the second part of this study. Above the outflow layer isentropes are tilted downward with radius as a result of the development of deep convection and an approaching upper-level trough, causing weak subsidence. Its maximum outward radial velocity is located above the cloud top, so the outflow channel experiences cloud-induced long-wave cooling. Because Sandy has two distinct convective regions (an eyewall and a frontal rainband), it has multiple outflow layers, with the eyewall’s outflow layer located above that of the frontal rainband. During the re-intensification stage, the eyewall’s outflow layer interacts with a jet stream ahead of the upper-level trough axis. Because of the presence of inertial instability on the anticyclonic side of the jet stream and symmetric instability in the inner region of the outflow layer, Sandy’s secondary circulation intensifies. Its re-intensification ceases when these instabilities disappear. The relationship between the intensity of the secondary circulation and dynamic instabilities of the outflow layer suggests that the re-intensification occurs in response to these instabilities. Additionally, it is verified that the long-wave cooling in the outflow layer helps induce symmetric instability by reducing static stability.

Application of a Bivariate Probit Model to Investigate the Intended Evacuation from Hurricane

With evidence of increasing hurricane risks in Georgia Coastal Area (GCA) and Virginia in the U.S. Southeast and elsewhere, understanding intended evacuation behavior is becoming more and more important for community planners. My research investigates intended evacuation behavior due to hurricane risks, a behavioral survey of the six counties in GCA under the direction of two social scientists with extensive experience in survey research related to citizen and household response to emergencies and disasters. Respondents gave answers whether they would evacuate under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. Bivariate probit models are used to investigate the subjective belief structure of whether or not the respondents are concerned about the hurricane, and the intended probability of evacuating as a function of risk perception, and a lot of demographic and socioeconomic variables (e.g., gender, military, age, length of residence, owning vehicles).