How to withdraw from the European Union? Confronting hard reality. CEPS Commentary, 16 January 2013

As David Cameron prepares to deliver his momentous “Europe” speech, Adam Łazowski warns the British Prime Minister that a divorce from the EU will not be easy and that the decision should be based on a very thorough political, economic and legal analysis, as the consequences in all possible respects will be profound.

How to save a bad element with weak boundary conditions

The P-1-P-1 finite element pair is known to allow the existence of spurious pressure (surface elevation) modes for the shallow water equations and to be unstable for mixed formulations. We show that this behavior is strongly influenced by the strong or the weak enforcement of the impermeability boundary conditions. A numerical analysis of the Stommel model is performed for both P-1-P-1 and P-1(NC)-P-1 mixed formulations. Steady and transient test cases are considered. We observe that the P-1-P-1 element exhibits stable discrete solutions with weak boundary conditions or with fully unstructured meshes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Who owned Earls Colne in 1798....or how to squeeze more from the Land Tax

In this important article Richard Hoyle, one of the country’s leading historians of the early modern period, introduces new perspectives on the Land Tax and its use in the analysis of local communities in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. He uses as his case study the parish of Earls Colne in Essex, on which he has already written extensively with Professor Henry French. The article begins with an overview of the tax itself, explaining its history and the procedures for the collection of revenues – including the numerous changes which took place. The sizeable problems confronting any would-be analyst of the data are clearly identified, and Hoyle observes that because of these apparently insoluble difficulties the potential of the tax returns has never been fully realised. He then considers the surviving documentation in The National Archives, providing an accessible introduction to the sources and their arrangement, and describing the particularly important question o f the redemption of the tax by payment of a lump sum. The extent of redemption (in the years around 1800-1804) is discussed. Hoyle draws attention to the potential for linking the tax returns themselves with the redemption certificates (which have never been subjected to historical analysis and thereby proposes new ways of exploiting the evidence of the taxation as a whole. The article then discusses in detail the specific case of Earls Colne, with tabulated data showing the research potential. Topics analysed include the ownership of property ranked by size of payment, and calculations whereby the amount paid may be used to determine the worth of land and the structure of individual estates. The important question of absentee owners is investigated, and there is a very valuable consideration of the potential for looking at portfolio estate ownership, whereby owners held land in varying proportions in a number of parishes. It is suggested that such studies will allow us to be more aware of the entirety of property ownership, which a focus on a single community does not permit. In the concluding paragraph it is argued that using these sources we may see the rise and fall of estates, gain new information on landownership, landholding and farm size, and even approach the challenging topic of the distribution of wealth.

How to quantify the resolution of surface climate by circulation types: an example for Alpine precipitation

A novel approach is presented for the evaluation of circulation type classifications (CTCs) in terms of their capability to predict surface climate variations. The approach is analogous to that for probabilistic meteorological forecasts and is based on the Brier skill score. This score is shown to take a particularly simple form in the context of CTCs and to quantify the resolution of a climate variable by the classifications. The sampling uncertainty of the skill can be estimated by means of nonparametric bootstrap resampling. The evaluation approach is applied for a systematic intercomparison of 71 CTCs (objective and manual, from COST Action 733) with respect to their ability to resolve daily precipitation in the Alpine region. For essentially all CTCs, the Brier skill score is found to be higher for weak and moderate compared to intense precipitation, for winter compared to summer, and over the north and west of the Alps compared to the south and east. Moreover, CTCs with a higher number of types exhibit better skill than CTCs with few types. Among CTCs with comparable type number, the best automatic classifications are found to outperform the best manual classifications. It is not possible to single out one ‘best’ classification for Alpine precipitation, but there is a small group showing particularly high skill.

Case study part 1: how to calculate appropriate deterministic long-term toxicity to exposure rates (TERs) for birds and mammals

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio(TERlt). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs)to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TERlt assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

Analyzing lateral root development: how to move forward

Roots are important to plants for a wide variety of processes, including nutrient and water uptake, anchoring and mechanical support, storage functions, and as the major interface between the plant and various biotic and abiotic factors in the soil environment. Therefore, understanding the development and architecture of roots holds potential for the manipulation of root traits to improve the productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems and to better understand and manage natural ecosystems. While lateral root development is a traceable process along the primary root and different stages can be found along this longitudinal axis of time and development, root system architecture is complex and difficult to quantify. Here, we comment on assays to describe lateral root phenotypes and propose ways to move forward regarding the description of root system architecture, also considering crops and the environment.

PCA Tomography: how to extract information from data cubes

Astronomy has evolved almost exclusively by the use of spectroscopic and imaging techniques, operated separately. With the development of modern technologies, it is possible to obtain data cubes in which one combines both techniques simultaneously, producing images with spectral resolution. To extract information from them can be quite complex, and hence the development of new methods of data analysis is desirable. We present a method of analysis of data cube (data from single field observations, containing two spatial and one spectral dimension) that uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to express the data in the form of reduced dimensionality, facilitating efficient information extraction from very large data sets. PCA transforms the system of correlated coordinates into a system of uncorrelated coordinates ordered by principal components of decreasing variance. The new coordinates are referred to as eigenvectors, and the projections of the data on to these coordinates produce images we will call tomograms. The association of the tomograms (images) to eigenvectors (spectra) is important for the interpretation of both. The eigenvectors are mutually orthogonal, and this information is fundamental for their handling and interpretation. When the data cube shows objects that present uncorrelated physical phenomena, the eigenvector`s orthogonality may be instrumental in separating and identifying them. By handling eigenvectors and tomograms, one can enhance features, extract noise, compress data, extract spectra, etc. We applied the method, for illustration purpose only, to the central region of the low ionization nuclear emission region (LINER) galaxy NGC 4736, and demonstrate that it has a type 1 active nucleus, not known before. Furthermore, we show that it is displaced from the centre of its stellar bulge.

How to avoid Copenhagen : An experimental economic approach to climate negotiations

This study got its origin in the failed climate negotiations in the Copenhagen 2009 summit. By conducting a public good game, with participants from China and Sweden, my study indicates that previous studies on public good games can predict the outcome of the game to a quit large extent even though most of my statistical tests came out statistically insignificant. My study also indicates that by framing the game as climate negotiations there were no statistical significant difference on the level of contributions in comparison to the unframed versions of the game. The awareness of the issues with emissions, global warming and other environmental problems are pretty high but even so when push comes to shove gains in the short run are prioritized to gains in the long run. There are however hypothetical willingness to come to term with the environmental issues. The results of the study indicate that the outcome of the Copenhagen summit can be avoidable but would need additional experiments made on cultural differences and behavior.

Combined solar and pellet heating systems for single-family houses : How to achieve decreased electricity usage, increased system efficiency and increased solar gains

In Sweden, there are about 0.5 million single-family houses that are heated by electricity alone, and rising electricity costs force the conversion to other heating sources such as heat pumps and wood pellet heating systems. Pellet heating systems for single-family houses are currently a strongly growing market. Future lack of wood fuels is possible even in Sweden, and combining wood pellet heating with solar heating will help to save the bio-fuel resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate how the electrically heated single-family houses can be converted to pellet and solar heating systems, and how the annual efficiency and solar gains can be increased in such systems. The possible reduction of CO-emissions by combining pellet heating with solar heating has also been investigated. Systems with pellet stoves (both with and without a water jacket), pellet boilers and solar heating have been simulated. Different system concepts have been compared in order to investigate the most promising solutions. Modifications in system design and control strategies have been carried out in order to increase the system efficiency and the solar gains. Possibilities for increasing the solar gains have been limited to investigation of DHW-units for hot water production and the use of hot water for heating of dishwashers and washing machines via a heat exchanger instead of electricity (heat-fed appliances). Computer models of pellet stoves, boilers, DHW-units and heat-fed appliances have been developed and the parameters for the models have been identified from measurements on real components. The conformity between the models and the measurements has been checked. The systems with wood pellet stoves have been simulated in three different multi-zone buildings, simulated in detail with heat distribution through door openings between the zones. For the other simulations, either a single-zone house model or a load file has been used. Simulations were carried out for Stockholm, Sweden, but for the simulations with heat-fed machines also for Miami, USA. The foremost result of this thesis is the increased understanding of the dynamic operation of combined pellet and solar heating systems for single-family houses. The results show that electricity savings and annual system efficiency is strongly affected by the system design and the control strategy. Large reductions in pellet consumption are possible by combining pellet boilers with solar heating (a reduction larger than the solar gains if the system is properly designed). In addition, large reductions in carbon monoxide emissions are possible. To achieve these reductions it is required that the hot water production and the connection of the radiator circuit is moved to a well insulated, solar heated buffer store so that the boiler can be turned off during the periods when the solar collectors cover the heating demand. The amount of electricity replaced using systems with pellet stoves is very dependant on the house plan, the system design, if internal doors are open or closed and the comfort requirements. Proper system design and control strategies are crucial to obtain high electricity savings and high comfort with pellet stove systems. The investigated technologies for increasing the solar gains (DHW-units and heat-fed appliances) significantly increase the solar gains, but for the heat-fed appliances the market introduction is difficult due to the limited financial savings and the need for a new heat distribution system. The applications closest to market introduction could be for communal laundries and for use in sunny climates where the dominating part of the heat can be covered by solar heating. The DHW-unit is economical but competes with the internal finned-tube heat exchanger which is the totally dominating technology for hot water preparation in solar combisystems for single-family houses.

How to make active interactions in Japanese as a second language.

This paper analyzes Japanese language classes at Dalarna University in Sweden that are held through a web conferencing system. It discusses how students’ learning and language acquisition can be supported by making better use of the available features of using a web conferencing system for language lessons. Of particular interest is the existence of an “information gap” among students, created because of the limits posed by distance communication. Students who take Japanese courses at Dalarna University usually access classes from their home, which are located all over Sweden or even abroad. This fact can be utilized in language classes because the “information gap” can lead to interactions that are essential for language learning. In order to make use of this natural “information gap” and turn it into an opportunity for communication, our classes used a teaching method called “personalization” [Kawaguchi, 2004].  “Personalization” aims to persuade students to express their own ideas, opinions, feelings and preferences. The present analysis suggests that “personalization” in web-based language classes is a surprisingly effective teaching method. By making students explain about things at home (why they have them, what they use them for, or why they are important), students become motivated to express themselves in Japanese. This makes communication meaningful and enhances students’ interest in improving their vocabulary. Furthermore, by knowing each other, it becomes easier to create a ”supportive classroom environment” [Nuibe, 2001] in which students feel able to express themselves. The analysis suggests that that web-based education can be seen not simply as a supplement to traditional face-to face classroom education, but as a unique and effective educational platform in itself.

An exploratory study on how to improve the economy of American Samoa

Deep in the South Pacific region about 2,300 miles southwest of the Hawaiian islands1 lies a United States territory that many Americans have never heard of nor known anything about. However, some famous Americans such as Troy Polamalu of the Pittsburgh Steelers, semi retired professional wrestler Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, and Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard have genealogical roots there. More importantly, many of the Territory’s sons and daughters have served and lost their lives for the United States flag and the cause of freedom around the world. This place is called American Samoa, a collection of seven islands that if glued together would have a total landmass of approximately 76 square miles, just a tad bigger than the capital city of the United States. According to the United States Census Bureau, there were 55,519 residents of American Samoa in 2010.1 The majority of them are ethnic Samoans, a Polynesian sect that traces its history back to early migrants from Southeast Asia who settled the islands around 1500 B.C.2 3 The climate is warm all year long and the forests along the mountains are ripe with vegetation. The main island is Tutuila with its beautiful and coveted landlocked harbor that was used as a coaling station by the United States naval ships during World War II. In fact, it was the Pago Pago Harbor that diminished the impact of the 2009 Tsunami that devastated the Samoan islands by channeling the waters of the Pacific Ocean towards the end of the harbor instead of flooding many other villages surrounding the Pago Pago Bay area. Lives and property were destroyed near the end of the Harbor but it could have been worse for the entire Bay area. Locally grown foods include coconut, taro, banana, guava, sugar cane, papaya, yam, pineapple, and breadfruit. It is completely surrounded by the Pacific Ocean from which the locals obtain a variety of seafood. There is a popular saying in Samoa that goes, “In Samoa, it is impossible to starve 1 American Samoa Department of Commerce, 2012 Statistical Yearbook, http://www.doc.as/wpcontent/uploads/2011/06/2012-Statistical-Yearbook-1.pdf 2 U.S. Census Bureau News, U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2010 Census Population Counts for American Samoa, http://www.census.gov/2010census/news/releases/operations/cb11-cn177.html (Aug. 24, 2011). 3 3 J. Robert Shaffer, American Samoa: 100 Years Under the United States Flag (Honolulu, Hawaii: Island Heritage Publishing, 2000), 34. 4 because people live off of the land’s and the ocean’s abundant resources.” To the west of American Samoa lies a larger group of four islands that make up the Sovereign State of Samoa, which became independent from New Zealand in 1962. Samoa and American Samoa share the same language, culture, and religion but are divided by government and political systems. The focus of this study will be on American Samoa, which became a United States territory in 1900 when the principal chiefs of Tutuila (the largest island in American Samoa) ceded the islands to the United States.

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Why banks want to be complex

We investigate whether and how bank complexity affects performance and systemic risk. We base the analysis on a complexity measure that captures diversification and diversity, controlling for size and other bank characteristics. We find that more complex banks exhibit a higher profitability, lower risk, and higher market share. Moreover, we show an inversely U-shaped relation between bank complexity and banks’ sensitivity to systemic shocks. The evidence challenges the view that higher bank complexity is per se bad and is consistent with theoretical models that show that diversity in the banking system is critical for financial stability.

How to evaluate financial regulation of Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the current financial regulation of Brazil, with emphasis on the changes that have occurred after the 2008 global crisis. Before that, this introduction presents the analytical perspective that will be used to think over the financial regulation of an emerging country, such as Brazil.

HOW TO EFFICIEN TLY INCORPORATE FACTS DEVICES IN OPTIMAL ACTIVE POWER FLOW MODEL

This paper presents for the first time how to easily incorporate facts devices in an optimal active power flow model such that an efficient interior-point method may be applied. The optimal active power flow model is based on a network flow approach instead of the traditional nodal formulation that allows the use of an efficiently predictor-corrector interior point method speed up by sparsity exploitation. The mathematical equivalence between the network flow and the nodal models is addressed, as well as the computational advantages of the former considering the solution by interior point methods. The adequacy of the network flow model for representing facts devices is presented and illustrated on a small 5-bus system. The model was implemented using Matlab and its performance was evaluated with the 3,397-bus and 4,075-branch Brazilian power system which show the robustness and efficiency of the formulation proposed. The numerical results also indicate an efficient tool for optimal active power flow that is suitable for incorporating facts devices.