Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Mobility and Housing Satisfaction: An Empirical Analysis for Twelve EU Countries

Using panel data for twelve EU countries, we analyze the relationship between selfreported housing satisfaction and residential mobility. Our results indicate the existence of a positive link between the two variables and that housing satisfaction exerts a mediating effect between residential characteristics and dwellers' mobility propensities. Some interesting cross-country differences regarding the effect of other variables on mobility are also observed. Our results can be used in defining, implementing and evaluating housing and neighbourhood policies. Residential satisfaction is put forward as one of the most appropriate indicators of the success or failure of such policies. Keywords: Housing satisfaction, residential mobility JEL classification: R21, D19

Disentangling the Housing Satisfaction Puzzle: Does Homeownership Really Matter?

There is a general consensus that homeownership has beneficial effects for both individuals and society in many outcomes. However, research regarding the effect of homeownership on individuals' subjective well-being remains inconclusive. In this paper, for the first time, we provide empirical evidence for the link between homeownership and housing satisfaction using panel data. We use the eight waves of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) covering the period 1994-2001. We observe that renters who become homeowners not only experience a significant increase in housing satisfaction, but also after changing their tenure status, they obtain a different utility from the same housing context. This evidence might provide support to the hypothesis that a share of the differences in the perceived utility derived from housing can be attributed to (un)fulfilled expectations or aspirations regarding homeownership. Keywords: Housing satisfaction, subjective well-being, homeownership, fixed-effects, housing aspirations JEL classification: D1, R2.

Knowledge of Catalan, public/private sector choice and earnings: Evidence from a double sample selection model

This paper explores the earnings return to Catalan knowledge for public and private workers in Catalonia. In doing so, we allow for a double simultaneous selection process. We consider, on the one hand, the non-random allocation of workers into one sector or another, and on the other, the potential self-selection into Catalan proficiency. In addition, when correcting the earnings equations, we take into account the correlation between the two selectivity rules. Our findings suggest that the apparent higher language return for public sector workers is entirely accounted for by selection effects, whereas knowledge of Catalan has a significant positive return in the private sector, which is somewhat higher when the selection processes are taken into account.

Preference intensities and risk aversion in school choice: a laboratory experiment

We experimentally investigate in the laboratory two prominent mechanisms that are employed in school choice programs to assign students to public schools. We study how individual behavior is influenced by preference intensities and risk aversion. Our main results show that (a) the Gale-Shapley mechanism is more robust to changes in cardinal preferences than the Boston mechanism independently of whether individuals can submit a complete or only a restricted ranking of the schools and (b) subjects with a higher degree of risk aversion are more likely to play "safer" strategies under the Gale-Shapley but not under the Boston mechanism. Both results have important implications for the efficiency and the stability of the mechanisms.

Strategy-proof social choice

This paper surveys the literature on strategy-proofness from a historical perspective. While I discuss the connections with other works on incentives in mechanism design, the main emphasis is on social choice models. This article has been prepared for the Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare, Volume 2, Edited by K. Arrow, A. Sen and K. Suzumura

NovoTTF-100A versus physician's choice chemotherapy in recurrent glioblastoma: A randomised phase III trial of a novel treatment modality.

PURPOSE: NovoTTF-100A is a portable device delivering low-intensity, intermediate frequency electric fields via non-invasive, transducer arrays. Tumour Treatment Fields (TTF), a completely new therapeutic modality in cancer treatment, physically interfere with cell division. METHODS: Phase III trial of chemotherapy-free treatment of NovoTTF (20-24h/day) versus active chemotherapy in the treatment of patients with recurrent glioblastoma. Primary end-point was improvement of overall survival. RESULTS: Patients (median age 54years (range 23-80), Karnofsky performance status 80% (range 50-100) were randomised to TTF alone (n=120) or active chemotherapy control (n=117). Number of prior treatments was two (range 1-6). Median survival was 6.6 versus 6.0months (hazard ratio 0.86 [95% CI 0.66-1.12]; p=0.27), 1-year survival rate was 20% and 20%, progression-free survival rate at 6months was 21.4% and 15.1% (p=0.13), respectively in TTF and active control patients. Responses were more common in the TTF arm (14% versus 9.6%, p=0.19). The TTF-related adverse events were mild (14%) to moderate (2%) skin rash beneath the transducer arrays. Severe adverse events occurred in 6% and 16% (p=0.022) of patients treated with TTF and chemotherapy, respectively. Quality of life analyses favoured TTF therapy in most domains. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first controlled trial evaluating an entirely novel cancer treatment modality delivering electric fields rather than chemotherapy. No improvement in overall survival was demonstrated, however efficacy and activity with this chemotherapy-free treatment device appears comparable to chemotherapy regimens that are commonly used for recurrent glioblastoma. Toxicity and quality of life clearly favoured TTF.

Group strategy-proof social choice functions with binary ranges and arbitrary domains: characterization results

We define different concepts of group strategy-proofness for social choice functions. We discuss the connections between the defined concepts under different assumptions on their domains of definition. We characterize the social choice functions that satisfy each one of them and whose ranges consist of two alternatives, in terms of two types of basic properties.

IPH response to the Department for Social Development Draft Regeneration and Housing Bill

IPH recognise that housing and regeneration initiatives are key determinants of health and have responded to the Department for Social Development (DSD), Draft Regeneration and Housing Bill.

Response to Northern Ireland Housing Executive Review of Housing and Health

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland welcomes the opportunity to comment on the Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE), Review of Housing and Health – Towards a Shared Agenda policy.   The Institute aims to improve health in Ireland, North and South by working to combat health inequalities and influence public policies in favour of health. The Institute recognises the potential health impacts linked with housing and welcome the proactive approach NIHE is adopting. By identifying the wider determinants of health, the NIHE acknowledges that as a statutory organization they have a major role to play in contributing to improved health for Northern Ireland.   There are many causal pathways linking housing to health and due to the nature of social housing, a number of vulnerable groups, for example those on a low income or the Travelling Community are subject to NIHE policies.  Overall the policy outlines a number of key recommendations.  The Institute advise that the Implementation Plan which will incorporate the recommendations should outline targets which can be measurable, for example, under Objective 1 which identifies the reduction of fuel poverty.  We recommend that key targets are outlined to show what action the NIHE has set in accordance to measure a reduction in fuel poverty.