ESAPP Quarterly Report (January 01 - March 31, 2005)

Description and budget of secretariat and project activities Horn of Africa.

ESAPP Quarterly Report (January 01 - December 31, 2004)

Description and budget of secretariat and project activities Horn of Africa.

The New Silk Road: a versatile instrument in China’s policy. OSW Commentary No. 161, February 10 2015

Introduction. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping presented the concept of the New Silk Road – a collection of land and maritime routes – in autumn 2013. Initially, it envisaged the creation of a network of infrastructural connections, mainly transport corridors, between China and its most important economic partner – Europe. The concept grew in importance throughout 2014 to become the key instrument of China’s foreign policy, especially in the areas of public diplomacy and soft power. Towards the end of 2014, the Chinese government announced it would establish a Silk Road Fund worth US$40 billion. The New Silk Road idea is a flexible formula used by China in its dialogue with many other countries. Its inclusive nature helps contribute to diluting the negative impression caused by China’s rapid economic expansion and assertiveness in foreign policy, especially with regard to its neighbours. The process of implementing the New Silk Road concept will allow China to expand its influence within its neighbourhood: in Central and South-Eastern Asia. The New Silk Road will be an alternative point of reference to the US dominance and Russian integration projects in these regions. The concept will legitimise and facilitate the growth of China’s influence in the transit countries on the route to Western Europe, i.e. in the Middle East (Arab countries, Israel and Turkey, the Horn of Africa and Central Europe (the Balkans and the Visegrad Group countries). This concept is also essential for China’s domestic policy. It has become one of Xi Jinping’s main political projects. It will boost the development of China’s central and western provinces. The fact that the concept is open and not fully defined means that it will be a success regardless of the extent to which it will be implemented in practice. Its flexible nature allows China to continue investments already initiated bilaterally and to present them as components of the New Silk Road concept.

El fortalecimiento de organizacones terroristas en África a partir de la descentralización de Al Qaeda (2006-2013) a la luz de la teoría de guerra en red

El objetivo de esta monografía es analizar el proceso de descentralización de Al Qaeda a causa del debilitamiento de su centro en Afganistán por la intervención militar de la coalición occidental. Se estudia como Al Qaeda deja de ser una organización jerárquica, comenzando a organizarse en red. Estas trasformaciones se pueden explicar a la luz de los principales postulados de la teoría de Guerra en Red, que incluyen la falta de un liderazgo central, y la distribución en enjambre para atacar. Siguiendo la línea argumentativa, finalmente se demuestra que mediante la expansión de la red, Al Qaeda aún bajo su situación de debilidad ha mantenido vigente la yihad trasnacional a través de las organizaciones filiales en África.

El rol de la Unión Africana (UA) en el Cuerno de África a partir del caso de Somalia - AMISOM (2007-2013)

El propósito de esta monografía es comprender cuál ha sido el rol de la Unión Africana (UA), dentro de la misión de paz AMISOM en el periodo de 2007- 2013. Por ello, el trabajo abarca aspectos geopolíticos e históricos, que han influido en la configuración del conflicto armado de Somalía y que han llevado progresivamente a la creación, evolución e implementación de mecanismos como las misiones de paz. Además, se abarcan los planteamientos del neo-funcionalismo y el neo-regionalismo para comprender las estructuras y las dinámicas propias de la UA y así, comprender la naturaleza tanto de sus acciones, como de sus propósitos; propósitos que aclaman el fomento del panafricanismo. Desde aquí se puede entender como su rol ha contribuido con el crecimiento del mercado de la industria militar en la región, a costa de la responsabilidad de proteger. Por último, se concluye que dichas dinámicas han llevado a la creación de comunidades de inseguridad.

Campo de Refugiados de Dadaab: un escenario de desafíos frente al Enfoque de Género del Alto Comisionado de Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados (ACNUR): 1998-2010

El presente Estudio de Caso tiene por objetivo determinar el alcance que tiene el Enfoque de Género de ACNUR, en la garantía de los derechos fundamentales de las mujeres y las niñas en el Campamento de Refugiados de Dadaab entre 1998 y 2010. La implementación del Enfoque resulta insuficiente en el proceso de defensa de los derechos de la población femenina, pues los problemas que enfrentan han aumentado a pesar de la ayuda humanitaria brindada por organizaciones internacionales. La iniciativa de ACNUR de mejorar las condiciones de las mujeres refugiadas, se materializa en el Enfoque de Género, no obstante los resultados de su aplicación no son los esperados. El carácter correlacional y analítico de la investigación responde al enfoque cualitativo utilizado, con el propósito de entender los retos que representa Dadaab en la aplicación de un proyecto internacional.

Essays on the Empirical Analysis of Economic and Political Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, non-democratic events, like civil wars and coup d'etat, destroy economic development. This study investigates both domestic and spatial effects on the likelihood of civil wars and coup d'etat. To civil wars, an increase of income growth is one of common research conclusions to stop wars. This study adds a concern on ethnic fractionalization. IV-2SLS is applied to overcome causality problem. The findings document that income growth is significant to reduce number and degree of violence in high ethnic fractionalized countries, otherwise they are trade-off. Income growth reduces amount of wars, but increases its violent level, in the countries with few large ethnic groups. Promoting growth should consider ethnic composition. This study also investigates the clustering and contagion of civil wars using spatial panel data models. Onset, incidence and end of civil conflicts spread across the network of neighboring countries while peace, the end of conflicts, diffuse only with the nearest neighbor. There is an evidence of indirect links from neighboring income growth, without too much inequality, to reduce the likelihood of civil wars. To coup d'etat, this study revisits its diffusion for both all types of coups and only successful ones. The results find an existence of both domestic and spatial determinants in different periods. Domestic income growth plays major role to reduce the likelihood of coup before cold war ends, while spatial effects do negative afterward. Results on probability to succeed coup are similar. After cold war ends, international organisations seriously promote democracy with pressure against coup d'etat, and it seems to be effective. In sum, this study indicates the role of domestic ethnic fractionalization and the spread of neighboring effects to the likelihood of non-democratic events in a country. Policy implementation should concern these factors.

The economic tragedy of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa

The dismal growth performance of Africa is the worst economic tragedy ofthe XXth century. We document the evolution of per capita GDP for thecontinent as a whole and for subset of countries south of the Saharadesert. We document the worsening of various income inequality indexesand we estimate poverty rates and headcounts. We then analyze some ofthe central robust determinants of economic growth reported bySala-i-Martin, Doppelhofer and Miller (2003) and project the annual growthrates Africa would have enjoyed if these key determinants had taken OECDrather than African values. Expensive investment goods, low levels ofeducation, poor health, adverse geography, closed economies, too muchpublic expenditure and too many military conflicts are seen as keyexplanations of the economic tragedy.

Investigations on the radiation characteristics of new hollow dielectric horn antennas

Investigations on the design and development of certain new hollow dielectric hom antennas of rectangular cross section have been carried out. The main shortcoming of the existing ordinary hollow dielectric hom antenna (HDH) is the abrupt discontinuity at the feed-end. A new launching technique using a dielectric rod is introduced to overcome this limitation. Also a strip loading technique is employed for further modification of the antenna. Radiation parameters of new I-IDH antennas of Eplane sectoral, H-plane sectoral and pyramidal types were studied and are found to be very attractive. Theoretical approach based on Marcatili’s principle and two aperture theory along with diffraction theory and image theory is used to support the experimental findings. The HDH is considered as solid horn of effective dielectric constant and the aperture field is evaluated. The antenna is excited by the open waveguide in the dominant TE1o mode and so the existence of any hybrid mode is mled-out. The theoretical results are observed to be in good agreement with the experimental results.

Observations of the inter-ocean exchange around South Africa

There is growing evidence that the interocean exchange south of Africa is an important link in the global overturning circulation of the ocean, the so‐called ocean conveyer belt. At this location, warm and salty Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic and are pulled by currents that eventually reach the North Atlantic, where water cools and sinks. A major contributor to the exchange is the frequent shedding of ring eddies from the termination of the Agulhas Current south of the tip of Africa. This shedding is controlled by developments far upstream in the Indian Ocean, and variations in this ‘Agulhas Leakage’ can lead to changes in the rate and stability of the Atlantic overturning, with possible associated global climate variations [Weijer et al., 1999]. Regional climate variations in the tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean are known to affect the whole system of the Agulhas Current, including the interocean exchanges. This article reports on some of the seminal results of ongoing multinational, multidisciplinary projects that explore these issues.

Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change

Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience to climate change at local, national and transnational level.

Consequences of Early Late-Pleistocene Megadroughts in Tropical Africa

Extremely arid conditions in tropical Africa occurred in several discrete episodes between 135 and 90 ka, as demonstrated by lake core and seismic records from multiple basins [Scholz CA, Johnson TC, Cohen AS, King JW, Peck J, Overpeck JT, Talbot MR, Brown ET, Kalindekafe L,Amoako PYO, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad SciUSA104:16416–16421]. This resulted in extraordinarily low lake levels, even in Africa’s deepest lakes.On the basis of well dated paleoecological records from Lake Malawi, which reflect both local and regional conditions, we show that this aridity had severe consequences for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. During the most arid phase, there was extremely low pollen production and limited charred-particle deposition, indicating insufficient vegetation to maintain substantial fires, and the Lake Malawi watershed experienced cool, semidesert conditions (<400 mm>/yr precipitation). Fossil and sedimentological data show that Lake Malawi itself, currently 706mdeep, was reduced to an ~125 m deep saline, alkaline, well mixed lake. This episode of aridity was far more extreme than any experienced in the Afrotropics during the Last Glacial Maximum (~35–15 ka). Aridity diminished after 95 ka, lake levels rose erratically, and salinity/alkalinity declined, reaching near-modern conditions after 60 ka. This record of lake levels and changing limnological conditions provides a framework for interpreting the evolution of the Lake Malawi fish and invertebrate species flocks. Moreover, this record, coupled with other regional records of early Late Pleistocene aridity, places new constraints on models of Afrotropical biogeographic refugia and early modern human population expansion into and out of tropical Africa.

The Benefits of Sugarcane Chain Development in Africa

As consumers continue to be concerned about the future of sustainable agriculture and the scarcity of natural resources, biofuels can be an important component of the "people" solution through job creation, development and interiorizing economic activities of a country through moving money from cities into rural areas. The Brazilian sugarcane industry is well developed in terms of corporate social responsibility and can serve as an example for other countries such as Africa. The objective of this article is to show how sugar cane can contribute to the development of Africa by producing renewable fuel for use in booming African cities. A supply of sugar can be developed for use in local markets and exports. Other opportunities exist to produce bioelectricity from the process of burning the bagasse and other new products such as plastic and diesel. In the case of Ethanol, this fuel has proven to be the most efficient in competing with gasoline in the last 40 years, and Africa may gain with a strategic plan on ethanol.

Phylogeography of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Africa Reveals Multiple Introductions in Senegal and Mauritania

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) virus (Family Bunyaviridae) is an arthropod-borne RNA virus that infects primarily domestic ruminants and occasionally humans. RVF epizootics are characterized by numerous abortions and mortality among young animals. In humans, the illness is usually characterized by a mild self-limited febrile illness, which could progress to more serious complications. RVF virus is widespread and endemic in many regions of Africa. In Western Africa, several outbreaks have been reported since 1987 when the first major one occurred at the frontier of Senegal and Mauritania. Aiming to evaluate the spreading and molecular epidemiology in these countries, RVFV isolates from 1944 to 2008 obtained from 18 localities in Senegal and Mauritania and 15 other countries were investigated. Our results suggest that a more intense viral activity possibly took place during the last century compared to the recent past and that at least 5 introductions of RVFV took place in Senegal and Mauritania from distant African regions. Moreover, Barkedji in Senegal was possibly a hub associated with the three distinct entries of RVFV in West Africa.