Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

A curious herbal :containing five hundred cuts, of the most useful plants, which are now used in the practice of physick engraved on folio copper plates, after drawings taken from the life /by Elizabeth Blackwell. To which is added a short description of ye plants and their common uses in physick.

1737 v. 1 #1010

A curious herbal :containing five hundred cuts, of the most useful plants, which are now used in the practice of physick engraved on folio copper plates, after drawings taken from the life /by Elizabeth Blackwell. To which is added a short description of ye plants and their common uses in physick.

1739 v. 2 #1011

Functional Vascular Study in Hypertensive Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes Using Losartan or Amlodipine

Background: Antihypertensive drugs are used to control blood pressure (BP) and reduce macro- and microvascular complications in hypertensive patients with diabetes. Objectives: The present study aimed to compare the functional vascular changes in hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus after 6 weeks of treatment with amlodipine or losartan. Methods: Patients with a previous diagnosis of hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus were randomly divided into 2 groups and evaluated after 6 weeks of treatment with amlodipine (5 mg/day) or losartan (100 mg/day). Patient evaluation included BP measurement, ambulatory BP monitoring, and assessment of vascular parameters using applanation tonometry, pulse wave velocity (PWV), and flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery. Results: A total of 42 patients were evaluated (21 in each group), with a predominance of women (71%) in both groups. The mean age of the patients in both groups was similar (amlodipine group: 54.9 ± 4.5 years; losartan group: 54.0 ± 6.9 years), with no significant difference in the mean BP [amlodipine group: 145 ± 14 mmHg (systolic) and 84 ± 8 mmHg (diastolic); losartan group: 153 ± 19 mmHg (systolic) and 90 ± 9 mmHg (diastolic)]. The augmentation index (30% ± 9% and 36% ± 8%, p = 0.025) and augmentation pressure (16 ± 6 mmHg and 20 ± 8 mmHg, p = 0.045) were lower in the amlodipine group when compared with the losartan group. PWV and FMD were similar in both groups. Conclusions: Hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with amlodipine exhibited an improved pattern of pulse wave reflection in comparison with those treated with losartan. However, the use of losartan may be associated with independent vascular reactivity to the pressor effect.

Ivabradine Improves Heart Rate Variability in Patients with Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Background: Ivabradine is a novel specific heart rate (HR)-lowering agent that improves event-free survival in patients with heart failure (HF). Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the effect of ivabradine on time domain indices of heart rate variability (HRV) in patients with HF. Methods: Forty-eight patients with compensated HF of nonischemic origin were included. Ivabradine treatment was initiated according to the latest HF guidelines. For HRV analysis, 24-h Holter recording was obtained from each patient before and after 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine. Results: The mean RR interval, standard deviation of all normal to normal RR intervals (SDNN), the standard deviation of 5-min mean RR intervals (SDANN), the mean of the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals for all 5-min segments (SDNN index), the percentage of successive normal RR intervals exceeding 50 ms (pNN50), and the square root of the mean of the squares of the differences between successive normal to normal RR intervals (RMSSD) were low at baseline before treatment with ivabradine. After 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine, the mean HR (83.6 ± 8.0 and 64.6 ± 5.8, p < 0.0001), mean RR interval (713 ± 74 and 943 ± 101 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN (56.2 ± 15.7 and 87.9 ± 19.4 ms, p < 0.0001), SDANN (49.5 ± 14.7 and 76.4 ± 19.5 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN index (24.7 ± 8.8 and 38.3 ± 13.1 ms, p < 0.0001), pNN50 (2.4 ± 1.6 and 3.2 ± 2.2 %, p < 0.0001), and RMSSD (13.5 ± 4.6 and 17.8 ± 5.4 ms, p < 0.0001) substantially improved, which sustained during both when awake and while asleep. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that treatment with ivabradine improves HRV in nonischemic patients with HF.

Effects of PDE type 5 inhibitors on Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction in Resistant Hypertension

Resistant hypertension (RHTN) is a multifactorial disease characterized by blood pressure (BP) levels above goal (140/90 mmHg) in spite of the concurrent use of three or more antihypertensive drugs of different classes. Moreover, it is well known that RHTN subjects have high prevalence of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD), which leads to increased risk of heart failure progression. This review gathers data from studies evaluating the effects of phosphodiesterase-5 (PDE-5) inhibitors (administration of acute sildenafil and short-term tadalafil) on diastolic function, biochemical and hemodynamic parameters in patients with RHTN. Acute study with sildenafil treatment found that inhibition of PDE-5 improved hemodynamic parameters and diastolic relaxation. In addition, short-term study with the use of tadalafil demonstrated improvement of LVDD, cGMP and BNP-32 levels, regardless of BP reduction. No endothelial function changes were observed in the studies. The findings of acute and short-term studies revealed potential therapeutic effects of IPDE-5 drugs on LVDD in RHTN patients.

Influence of Spironolactone on Matrix Metalloproteinase-2 in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Background: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are a family of enzymes important for the resorption of extracellular matrices, control of vascular remodeling and repair. Increased activity of MMP2 has been demonstrated in heart failure, and in acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF) a decrease in circulating MMPs has been demonstrated along with successful treatment. Objective: Our aim was to test the influence of spironolactone in MMP2 levels. Methods: Secondary analysis of a prospective, interventional study including 100 patients with ADHF. Fifty patients were non-randomly assigned to spironolactone (100 mg/day) plus standard ADHF therapy (spironolactone group) or standard ADHF therapy alone (control group). Results: Spironolactone group patients were younger and had lower creatinine and urea levels (all p < 0.05). Baseline MMP2, NT-pro BNP and weight did not differ between spironolactone and control groups. A trend towards a more pronounced decrease in MMP2 from baseline to day 3 was observed in the spironolactone group (-21 [-50 to 19] vs 1.5 [-26 to 38] ng/mL, p = 0.06). NT-pro BNP and weight also had a greater decrease in the spironolactone group. The proportion of patients with a decrease in MMP2 levels from baseline to day 3 was also likely to be greater in the spironolactone group (50% vs 66.7%), but without statistical significance. Correlations between MMP2, NT-pro BNP and weight variation were not statistically significant. Conclusion: MMP2 levels are increased in ADHF. Patients treated with spironolactone may have a greater reduction in MMP2 levels.

Association between LDL-C, Non HDL-C, and Apolipoprotein B Levels with Coronary Plaque Regression

Background:Previous reports have inferred a linear relationship between LDL-C and changes in coronary plaque volume (CPV) measured by intravascular ultrasound. However, these publications included a small number of studies and did not explore other lipid markers.Objective:To assess the association between changes in lipid markers and regression of CPV using published data.Methods:We collected data from the control, placebo and intervention arms in studies that compared the effect of lipidlowering treatments on CPV, and from the placebo and control arms in studies that tested drugs that did not affect lipids. Baseline and final measurements of plaque volume, expressed in mm3, were extracted and the percentage changes after the interventions were calculated. Performing three linear regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between percentage and absolute changes in lipid markers and percentage variations in CPV.Results:Twenty-seven studies were selected. Correlations between percentage changes in LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and percentage changes in CPV were moderate (r = 0.48, r = 0.47, and r = 0.44, respectively). Correlations between absolute differences in LDL-C, non‑HDL-C, and ApoB with percentage differences in CPV were stronger (r = 0.57, r = 0.52, and r = 0.79). The linear regression model showed a statistically significant association between a reduction in lipid markers and regression of plaque volume.Conclusion:A significant association between changes in different atherogenic particles and regression of CPV was observed. The absolute reduction in ApoB showed the strongest correlation with coronary plaque regression.

Tramadol Alleviates Myocardial Injury Induced by Acute Hindlimb Ischemia Reperfusion in Rats

AbstractBackground:Organ injury occurs not only during periods of ischemia but also during reperfusion. It is known that ischemia reperfusion (IR) causes both remote organ and local injuries.Objective:This study evaluated the effects of tramadol on the heart as a remote organ after acute hindlimb IR.Methods:Thirty healthy mature male Wistar rats were allocated randomly into three groups: Group I (sham), Group II (IR), and Group III (IR + tramadol). Ischemia was induced in anesthetized rats by left femoral artery clamping for 3 h, followed by 3 h of reperfusion. Tramadol (20 mg/kg, intravenous) was administered immediately prior to reperfusion. At the end of the reperfusion, animals were euthanized, and hearts were harvested for histological and biochemical examination.Results:The levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) were higher in Groups I and III than those in Group II (p < 0.05). In comparison with other groups, tissue malondialdehyde (MDA) levels in Group II were significantly increased (p < 0.05), and this increase was prevented by tramadol. Histopathological changes, including microscopic bleeding, edema, neutrophil infiltration, and necrosis, were scored. The total injuryscore in Group III was significantly decreased (p < 0.05) compared with Group II.Conclusion:From the histological and biochemical perspectives, treatment with tramadol alleviated the myocardial injuries induced by skeletal muscle IR in this experimental model.