Rapid genotypic change and plasticity in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi is caused by a host shift and enhanced by segregation.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are among the most abundant symbionts of plants, improving plant productivity and diversity. They are thought to mostly grow vegetatively, a trait assumed to limit adaptability. However, AMF can also harbor genetically different nuclei (nucleotypes). It has been shown that one AMF can produce genotypically novel offspring with proportions of different nucleotypes. We hypothesized that (1) AMF respond rapidly to a change of environment (plant host) through changes in the frequency of nucleotypes; (2) genotypically novel offspring exhibit different genetic responses to environmental change than the parent; and (3) genotypically novel offspring exhibit a wide range of phenotypic plasticity to a change of environment. We subjected AMF parents and offspring to a host shift. We observed rapid and large genotypic changes in all AMF lines that were not random. Genotypic and phenotypic responses were different among offspring and their parents. Even though growing vegetatively, AMF offspring display a broad range of genotypic and phenotypic changes in response to host shift. We conclude that AMF have the ability to rapidly produce variable progeny, increasing their probability to produce offspring with different fitness than their parents and, consequently, their potential adaptability to new environmental conditions. Such genotypic and phenotypic flexibility could be a fast alternative to sexual reproduction and is likely to be a key to the ecological success of AMF.

Family history of cancer and the risk of cancer: a network of case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: The risk of many cancers is higher in subjects with a family history (FH) of cancer at a concordant site. However, few studies investigated FH of cancer at discordant sites. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study is based on a network of Italian and Swiss case-control studies on 13 cancer sites conducted between 1991 and 2009, and including more than 12 000 cases and 11 000 controls. We collected information on history of any cancer in first degree relatives, and age at diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) for FH were calculated by multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major confounding factors. RESULTS: All sites showed an excess risk in relation to FH of cancer at the same site. Increased risks were also found for oral and pharyngeal cancer and FH of laryngeal cancer (OR = 3.3), esophageal cancer and FH of oral and pharyngeal cancer (OR = 4.1), breast cancer and FH of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.5) and of hemolymphopoietic cancers (OR = 1.7), ovarian cancer and FH of breast cancer (OR = 2.3), and prostate cancer and FH of bladder cancer (OR = 3.4). For most cancer sites, the association with FH was stronger when the proband was affected at age <60 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to several potential cancer syndromes that appear among close relatives and may indicate the presence of genetic factors influencing multiple cancer sites.

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Birth weight, weight change, and blood pressure during childhood and adolescence: a school-based multiple cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association between birth weight, weight change, and current blood pressure (BP) across the entire age-span of childhood and adolescence in large school-based cohorts in the Seychelles, an island state in the African region. METHODS: Three cohorts were analyzed: 1004 children examined at age 5.5 and 9.1 years, 1886 children at 9.1 and 12.5, and 1575 children at 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Birth and 1-year anthropometric data were gathered from medical files. The outcome was BP at age 5.5, 9.1, 12.5 or 15.5 years, respectively. Conditional linear regression analysis was used to estimate the relative contribution of changes in weight (expressed in z-score) during different age periods on BP. All analyses were adjusted for height. RESULTS: At all ages, current BP was strongly associated with current weight. Birth weight was not significantly associated with current BP. Upon adjustment for current weight, the association between birth weight and current BP tended to become negative. Conditional linear regression analyses indicated that changes in weight during successive age periods since birth contributed substantially to current BP at all ages. The strength of the association between weight change and current BP increased throughout successive age periods. CONCLUSION: Weight changes during any age period since birth have substantial impact on BP during childhood and adolescence, with BP being more responsive to recent than earlier weight changes.

Institutional change and the evolution of the regulatory state: evidence from the Swiss case

This article examines institutional change in a case that was expected to be particularly resilient but showed considerable structural transformation: the institutionalization of the regulatory state in Switzerland. This process is illustrated through the establishment of independent regulatory agencies (IRAs) in four areas: banking and finance; telecommunications; electricity; and competition. The theoretical framework developed by Streeck, Thelen and Mahoney is used to explore hypotheses about the modes of institutional change, with the methodology of diachronic within-case study. Results confirm only partially the expectations, pointing to layering and displacement as the prevalent modes of change. The concluding part discusses the type and the direction of change as additional explanatory factors.

History of cholelithiasis and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies.

Background We analyzed the relationship between cholelithiasis and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland in 1982-2009. Methods The analyses included 1997 oropharyngeal, 917 esophageal, 999 gastric, 23 small intestinal, 3726 colorectal, 684 liver, 688 pancreatic, 1240 laryngeal, 6447 breast, 1458 endometrial, 2002 ovarian, 1582 prostate, 1125 renal cell, 741 bladder cancers, and 21 284 controls. The odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by multiple logistic regression models. Results The ORs for subjects with history of cholelithiasis compared with those without were significantly elevated for small intestinal (OR = 3.96), prostate (OR = 1.36), and kidney cancers (OR = 1.57). These positive associations were observed ≥10 years after diagnosis of cholelithiasis and were consistent across strata of age, sex, and body mass index. No relation was found with the other selected cancers. A meta-analysis including this and three other studies on the relation of cholelithiasis with small intestinal cancer gave a pooled relative risk of 2.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.82-3.03]. Conclusion In subjects with cholelithiasis, we showed an appreciably increased risk of small intestinal cancer and suggested a moderate increased risk of prostate and kidney cancers. We found no material association with the other cancers considered.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Ownership change and banking efficiency in the new EU members

The aim of this study is to analyze how European integration and, especially, changes in ownership, has affected banking efficiency in Central and Eastern European countries which have recently experimented this process more intensely. Using a stochastic frontier approach (SFA) applied to panel data, we have estimated bank efficiency levels in a sample of 189 banks from 12 countries during the period 2000 to 2008 and we have analyzed the influence of some bank characteristics on these efficiency levels. The results show that European integration has significantly improved the cost efficiency of banks in these countries but profit efficiency has significantly decreased. We have found very small differences between different ownership types and only a very small impact of foreign ownership on cost efficiency, showing that the entry of foreign ownership is not enough to explain the significant variations in banking efficiency after the accession.

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.