Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

Using the RBFN model and GIS technique to assess wind erosion hazard of inner Mongolia, China

Soil wind erosion is the primary process and the main driving force for land desertification and sand-dust storms in and and semi-arid areas of Northern China. While many researchers have studied this issue, this study quantified the various indicators of soil wind erosion, using the GIS technology to extract the spatial data and to construct a RBFN (Radial Basis Function Network) model for Inner Mongolia. By calibrating sample data of the different levels of wind erosion hazard, the model parameters were established, and then the assessment of wind erosion hazard. Results show that in the southern parts of Inner Mongolia wind erosion hazards are very severe, counties in the middle regions of Inner Mongolia vary from moderate to severe, and in eastern are slight. Comparison of the results with other research shows conformity with actual conditions, proving the reasonability and applicability of the RBFN model. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

滚石机理及滚石灾害评价研究

Rockfall is a geological evolution process involving detachment of blocks or boulders from a slope face, then their free falls, bouncing, rolling or sliding, and finally deposition near the toe of the slope. Many facts indicate that the rockfall can cause hazards to peoples, and it can be regarded as a geological hazard. A rockfall event may only involve a boulder or rock, and also several ones. When there are peoples, buildings, or other man-made establishments within the scope of rockfall trajectory, losses will be possibly induced in tenns of human lives or damages to these facilities. Researches into mechanism, kinematics, dynamics, hazard assessment, risk analysis, and mitigation measures of rockfalls are extremely necessary and important. Occurrence of rockfall is controlled by a lot of conditions, mainly including topographical, geomorphic, geological ones and triggering factors. The rockfall especially in mountainous areas, has different origins, and occurs to be frequent, unexpected, uncertain, in groups, periodic and sectional. The characterization and classification of the rockfalls not only increase knowledge about rockfall mechanism, but also can instruct mitigation of the hazards. In addition, stability of potential rockfalls have various sensitivity to different triggering factors and changes of geometrical conditions. Through theoretical analyses, laboratory experiments and field tests, the author presents some back-analysis methods for friction coefficients of sliding and rolling, and restitution coefficients. The used input data can be obtained economically and accurately in the field. Through deep studies on hazard assessment methods and analysis of factors influencing rockfall hazard, this paper presents a new assessment methodology consisting of preliminary assessment and detailed one. From the application in a 430 km long stretch of the Highway, which is located between Paksho and Nyingtri in Tibet, the methodology can be applicable for the rockfall hazard assessment in complex and difficult terrains. In addition, risk analyses along the stretch are conducted by computing the probability of encountering rockfalls and life losses resulting from rockfall impacts. Rockfall hazards may be mitigated by avoiding hazardous areas, clearness of dangerous rocks, reinforcement, obstructing the rockfalls, leading the rockfalls, warning and monitoring for rockfalls, etc. Seen from present remedial level of rockfall hazards, different mitigation measures, economical and effective buffering units, monitoring tecliniques and consciousness of environmental protection for rockfall mitigations should be further developed.

The politics of hazard: imminent critique and deconstruction of ecological modernisation in Ireland

This dissertation sets out to provide immanent critique and deconstruction of ecological modernisation or ecomodernism.It does so, from a critical social theory approach, in order to correctly address the essential issues at the heart of the environmental crisis that ecomodernism purports to address. This critical approach argues that the solution to the environmental crisis can only be concretely achieved by recognising its root cause as being foremost the issue of material interaction between classes in society, and not simply between society and nature in any structurally meaningful way. Based on a metaphysic of false dualism, ecological modernisation attributes a materiality of exchange value relations to issues of society, while simultaneously offering a non- material ontology to issues of nature. Thus ecomodernism serves asymmetrical relations of power whereby, as a polysemic policy discourse, it serves the material interests of those who have the power to impose abstract interpretations on the materiality of actual phenomena. The research of this dissertation is conducted by the critical evaluation of the empirical data from two exemplary Irish case studies. Discovery of the causal processes of the various public issues in the case studies and thereafter the revelation of the meaning structures under- pinning such causal processes, is a theoretically- driven task requiring analysis of those social practices found in the cognitive, cultural and structural constitutions respectively of actors, mediations and systems.Therefore, the imminent critique of the case study paradigms serves as a research strategy for comprehending Ireland’s nature- society relations as influenced essentially by a systems (techno- corporatist) ecomodernist discourse. Moreover, the deconstruction of this systems ideological discourse serves not only to demonstrate how weak ecomodernism practically undermines its declared ecological objectives, but also indicates how such objectives intervene as systemic contradictions at the cultural heart of Ireland’s late modernisation.

Learning to drive: from hazard detection to hazard handling

Hazard perception has been found to correlate with crash involvement, and has thus been suggested as the most likely source of any skill gap between novice and experienced drivers. The most commonly used method for measuring hazard perception is to evaluate the perception-reaction time to filmed traffic events. It can be argued that this method lacks ecological validity and may be of limited value in predicting the actions drivers’ will take to hazards encountered. The first two studies of this thesis compare novice and experienced drivers’ performance on a hazard detection test, requiring discrete button press responses, with their behaviour in a more dynamic driving environment, requiring hazard handling ability. Results indicate that the hazard handling test is more successful at identifying experience-related differences in response time to hazards. Hazard detection test scores were strongly related to performance on a driver theory test, implying that traditional hazard perception tests may be focusing more on declarative knowledge of driving than on the procedural knowledge required to successfully avoid hazards while driving. One in five Irish drivers crash within a year of passing their driving test. This suggests that the current driver training system does not fully prepare drivers for the dangers they will encounter. Thus, the third and fourth studies in this thesis focus on the development of two simulator-based training regimes. In the third study participants receive intensive training on the molar elements of driving i.e. speed and distance evaluation. The fourth study focuses on training higher order situation awareness skills, including perception, comprehension and projection. Results indicate significant improvement in aspects of speed, distance and situation awareness across training days. However, neither training programme leads to significant improvements in hazard handling performance, highlighting the difficulties of applying learning to situations not previously encountered.

Early warning sign attributes for the safety of drinking water treatment works

A proactive risk management strategy seeks to prevent accidents from taking place and maintain the safety of a system. In this context, the task of identifying and disseminating early warning signs and signals is among the most important. The problem is that warning signs that are present before an accident takes place are often being overlooked and not picked up or identified as warning signs. If these warning signs were responded to, then an accident may be averted. Accidents occuring in the critical domain of a drinking water treatments works can have serious implications for the public health of consumers of the water supplied. Realising and comprehending early warning signs is a major challenge for the domain of systems safety and especially in the domain of a water treatment works. The approaches that are typically used to enhance the realisation, comprehension and dissemination of early warning signs in the water treatment domain in Ireland mainly involves the creation of accident scenarios, the use of monitoring data and procedures for the dissemination of warnings. While all of these approaches are all useful to inform the mental or process models of possible accident scenarios, nevertheless, accidents are still occurring in this domain. Therefore, a new approach to enhance the comprehension of and effective dissemination of early warning signs is required in order to improve safety and proactive risk management strategies. The contributions of this thesis is the provision of a set of attributes associated with the early warning sign concept that provides meaningful data on the early warning signs and allows recipients to better comprehend them. The values of these attributes were customised for application in the water treatment domain. This research proves that early warning signs at a water treatment works received with information on their attributes are comprehended and communicated more effectively and efficiently than the usual pragmatic approach and thereby improves the safety and proactive risk management strategies.

Atmospheric dispersion, environmental effects and potential health hazard associated with the low-altitude gas plume of Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Hazard and risk assessment from Hurricane Ivan (2004) in Grenada using Geographical Information Systems and remote sensing

Hurricanes are destructive storms with strong winds, intense storm surges, and heavy rainfall. The resulting impact from a hurricane can include structural damage to buildings and infrastructure, flooding, and ultimately loss of human life. This paper seeks to identify the impact of Hurricane Ivan on the aected population of Grenada, one of the Caribbean islands. Hurricane Ivan made landfall on 7th September 2004 and resulted in 80% of the population being adversely aected. The methods that were used to model these impacts involved performing hazard and risk assessments using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Spatial analyses were used to create a hazard and a risk map. Hazards were identied initially as those caused by storm surges, severe winds speeds, and flooding events related to Hurricane Ivan. These estimated hazards were then used to create a risk map. An innovative approach was adopted, including the use of hillshading to assess the damage caused by high wind speeds. This paper explains in detail the methodology used and the results produced.

Suitability of Crangonyx pseudogracilis (Crustacea : Amphipoda) as an early warning indicator in the multispecies freshwater biomonitor

Background. Biological monitors are increasingly important in 'Biological Early Warning Systems' (BEWS) for monitoring water quality. This study examines the freshwater amphipod Crangonyx pseudogracilis as a potential new indicator species when used in the Multispecies Freshwater Biomonitor (MFB). The MFB is an online continuous biomonitor which uses impedance conversion to record behavioural responses of vertebrates and invertebrates.