Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Modelling complex systems for project planning - A semiotics motivated method

A large and complex IT project may involve multiple organizations and be constrained within a temporal period. An organization is a system comprising of people, activities, processes, information, resources and goals. Understanding and modelling such a project and its interrelationship with relevant organizations are essential for organizational project planning. This paper introduces the problem articulation method (PAM) as a semiotic method for organizational infrastructure modelling. PAM offers a suite of techniques, which enables the articulation of the business, technical and organizational requirements, delivering an infrastructural framework to support the organization. It works by eliciting and formalizing (e. g. processes, activities, relationships, responsibilities, communications, resources, agents, dependencies and constraints) and mapping these abstractions to represent the manifestation of the "actual" organization. Many analysts forgo organizational modelling methods and use localized ad hoc and point solutions, but this is not amenable for organizational infrastructures modelling. A case study of the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) will be used to demonstrate the applicability of PAM, and to examine its relevancy and significance in dealing with the innovation and changes in the organizations.

Climate change justice: getting motivated in the last chance saloon

A key reason for pessimism with respect to greenhouse gas emissions reduction relates to the ‘motivation problem’, whereby those who could make the biggest difference prima facie have the least incentive to act because they are most able to adapt: how can we motivate such people (and thereby everyone else) to accept, indeed to initiate, the changes to their lifestyles that are required for effective emissions reductions? This paper offers an account inspired by Rawls of the good of membership of ‘intergenerational cooperative union’ to achieve justice that provides a solution to the motivation problem.

Between the lines: Konrad Wolf's 'Mama, ich lebe' and the dilemmas of betrayal

The article offers a close reading of Konrad Wolf’s anti-fascist Second World War film 'Mama, ich lebe' (DEFA, 1977). 'Mama, ich lebe', like all East German films about the Nazi past, deals with the re-founding of post-war Germany. Unlike the usual approach which focused on political redemption of the past crimes, Wolf’s approach explores rupture and failure of political agency as the pre-condition for a new beginning. The rupture is effected by the defection of four Wehrmacht soldiers who decide to cooperate with the Soviet enemy. Their betrayal of the national collective is ethically motivated and arises from their responsibility for the Soviet ‘other’. Its radicalness opens up a moment of utopian freedom and conciliation for the traitors. Yet the back side of betrayal is insecurity and confliction with regard to their role and roots. While the four meet their role as traitors with self-deception about their ambivalent position, they are eventually forced to acknowledge their position as one of self-defeat. Their ‘ethical betrayal’ (Parikh 2009) does therefore not lead to utopian fulfilment but to the traitors’ expiatory sacrifice as the only form of accountability and self-justification. In Wolf’s film antifascism as a tale of political redemption is thus revised and becomes a tale of necessary individual atonement.

Enriching enterprise resource planning systems for strategic advantage: a semiotic motivated approach

Enterprise Resource Planning is often endorsed as a means to facilitate strategic advantage for businesses. The scarcity of resources is the method by which some businesses maintain their position. However, the ubiquitous trend towards the adoption of Enterprise Resourcing Planning systems coupled with market saturation makes the promise of advantage less compelling. Reported in this paper is a proposed solution based upon semiotic theory that takes a typical Enterprise Resource Planning deployment scenario and shapes it according to the needs of people in post-implementation contexts to leverage strategic advantage in different ways.

The Vietnam Draft: In Their Own Words : Draft Motivated Enlistees-Why did they enlist and serve?

This essay examines why Vietnam veterans, who were draft motivated enlistees, enlisted when drafted or threatened with the draft. Data is taken from 63 oral history interviews conducted by The Vietnam Archive Oral History Project at Texas Tech University and is analyzed using the phenomenological research approach. The background of this paper briefly explains the Vietnam Draft and the draft avoidance options available to those men who were drafted. The results section utilizes quotes from the oral history interviews to show the main themes of why men chose to enlist when faced with the draft. The discussion section discusses these themes in a wider context and brings up areas for further research.

Expanding criminal sanctions for corporate crimes-deprivation of right to work and cancellation of education qualifications

Fines are the standard sanctions employed by most Western countries when a corporation has been convicted of a crime. However, some offences committed by corporations are too serious to be dealt with by way of a fine. There is a need to consider other sanctions that can be invoked in order to deter corporate crime. In this article, it is suggested that the focus should be on criminal sanctions against the natural persons who can potentially commit crimes on behalf of a corporation. New sentencing options against those who can potentially commit crimes on behalf of a corporation should include the annulment or suspension of an offender's academic  qualifications and the making of orders preventing an offender from working or being enrolled in an educational or vocational pursuit.