Effects of reducing nutrient loads to surface waters within the Mississippi River Basin and the Gulf of Mexico: Topic 4 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

The overall goal of this assessment was to evaluate the effects of nutrient-source reductions that may be implemented in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) to reduce the problem of low oxygen conditions (hypoxia) in the nearshore Gulf of Mexico. Such source reductions would affect the quality of surface waters—streams, rivers, and reservoirs—in the drainage basin itself, as well as nearshore Gulf waters. The task group’s work was divided into addressing the effects of nutrient-source reductions on: (1) surface waters in the MRB and (2) hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

Flux and sources of nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin: Topic 3 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ths report addresses the following two questions: 1) What are the loads (flux) of nutrients transported from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico, and where do they come from within the basin? 2) What is the relative importance of specific human activities, such as agriculture, point-source discharges, and atmospheric deposition in contributing to these loads? These questions were addressed by first estimating the flux of nutrients from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin and about 50 interior basins in the Mississippi River system using measured historical streamflow and water quality data. Annual nutrient inputs and outputs to each basin were estimated using data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, National Atmospheric Deposition Program, and point-source data provided by the USEPA. Next, a nitrogen mass balance was developed using agricultural statistics, estimates of nutrient cycling in agricultural systems, and a geographic information system. Finally, multiple regression models were developed to estimate the relative contributions of the major input sources to the flux of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Gulf of Mexico.

Ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia: Topic 2 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

In this report we have attempted to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although our initial approach was to rely on published accounts, we quickly realized that the body of published literature deahng with hypoxia was limited, and we would have to conduct our own exploratory analysis of existing Gulf data, or rely on published accounts from other systems to infer possible or potential effects of hypoxia. For the economic analysis, we developed a conceptual model of how hypoxia-related impacts could affect fisheries. Our model included both supply and demand components. The supply model had two components: (1) a physical production function for fish or shrimp, and (2) the cost of fishing. If hypoxia causes the cost of a unit of fishing effort to change, then this will result in a shift in supply. The demand model considered how hypoxia might affect the quality of landed fish or shrimp. In particular, the market value per pound is lower for small shrimp than for large shrimp. Given the limitations of the ecological assessment, the shallow continental shelf area affected by hypoxia does show signs of hypoxia-related stress. While current ecological conditions are a response to a variety of stressors, the effects of hypoxia are most obvious in the benthos that experience mortality, elimination of larger long-lived species, and a shifting of productivity to nonhypoxic periods (energy pulsing). What is not known is whether hypoxia leads to higher productivity during productive periods, or simply to a reduction of productivity during oxygen-stressed periods. The economic assessment based on fisheries data, however, failed to detect effects attributable to hypoxia. Overall, fisheries landings statistics for at least the last few decades have been relatively constant. The failure to identify clear hypoxic effects in the fisheries statistics does not necessarily mean that they are absent. There are several possibilities: (1) hypoxic effects are small relative to the overall variability in the data sets evaluated; (2) the data and the power of the analyses are not adequate; and (3) currently there are no hypoxic effects on fisheries. Lack of identified hypoxic effects in available fisheries data does not imply that effects would not occur should conditions worsen. Experience with other hypoxic zones around the globe shows that both ecological and fisheries effects become progressively more severe as hypoxia increases. Several large systems around the globe have suffered serious ecological and economic consequences from seasonal summertime hypoxia; most notable are the Kattegat and Black Sea. The consequences range from localized loss of catch and recruitment failure to complete system-wide loss of fishery species. If experiences in other systems are applicable to the Gulf of Mexico, then in the face of worsening hypoxic conditions, at some point fisheries and other species will decline, perhaps precipitously.

Characterization of Hypoxia: Topic I Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

Nutrient overenrichment from human activities is one of the major stresses affecting coastal ecosystems. There is increasing concern in many areas around the world that an oversupply of nutrients from multiple sources is having pervasive ecological effects on shallow coastal and estuarine areas. These effects include reduced light penetration, loss of aquatic habitat, harmfid algal blooms, a decrease in dissolved oxygen (or hypoxia), and impacts on living resources. The largest zone of oxygen-depleted coastal waters in the United States, and the entire western Atlantic Ocean, is found in the northern Gulf of Mexico on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf. This zone is influenced by the freshwater discharge and nutrient flux of the Mississippi River system. This report describes the seasonal, interannual, and long-term variability in hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to nutrient loading. It also documents the relative roles of natural and human-induced factors in determining the size and duration of the hypoxic zone.

Nutrient enhanced coastal ocean productivity in the north Gulf of Mexico: understanding the effects of nutrients on a coastal ecosystem

The continental shelf adjacent to the Mississippi River is a highly productive system, often referred to as the fertile fisheries crescent. This productivity is attributed to the effects of the river, especially nutrient delivery. In the later decades of the 2oth century, though, changes in the system were becoming evident. Nutrient loads were seen to be increasing and reports of hypoxia were becoming more frequent. During most recent summers, a broad area (up to 20,000 krn2) of near bottom, inner shelf waters immediately west of the Mississippi River delta becomes hypoxic (dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 2 mgll). In 1990, the Coastal Ocean Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration initiated the Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) study of this area to test the hypothesis that anthropogenic nutrient addition to the coastal ocean has contributed to coastal eutrophication with a significant impact on water quality. Three major goals of the study were to determine the degree to which coastal productivity in the region is enhanced by terrestrial nutrient input, to determine the impact of enhanced productivity on water quality, and to determine the fate of fixed carbon and its impact on living marine resources. The study involved 49 federal and academic scientists from 14 institutions and cost $9.7 million. Field work proceeded from 1990 through 1993 and analysis through 1996, although some analyses continue to this day. The Mississippi River system delivers, on average, 19,000 m3/s of water to the northern Gulf of Mexico. The major flood of the river system occurs in spring following snow melt in the upper drainage basin. This water reaches the Gulf of Mexico through the Mississippi River birdfoot delta and through the delta of the Atchafalaya River. Much of this water flows westward along the coast as a highly stratified coastal current, the Louisiana Coastal Current, isolated from the bottom by a strong halocline and from mid-shelf waters by a strong salinity front. This stratification maintains dissolved and particulate matter from the rivers, as well as recycled material, in a well-defined flow over the inner shelf. It also inhibits the downward mixing of oxygenated surface waters from the surface layer to the near bottom waters. This highly stratified flow is readily identifiable by its surface turbidity, as it carries much of the fine material delivered with the river discharge and resuspended by nearshore wave activity. A second significant contribution to the turbidity of the surface waters is due to phytoplankton in these waters. This turbidity reduces the solar radiation penetrating to depth through the water column. These two aspects of the coastal current, isolation of the inner shelf surface waters and maintenance of a turbid surface layer, precondition the waters for the development of near bottom summer hypoxia.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico: 2011

In August 2011, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters of the continental shelf in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The original sampling design included 50 randomly selected sites from the Mississippi River delta to the U.S./Mexican border, representing a total area of 111,162 square kilometers; however, vessel failures and inclement weather precluded sampling at 16 sites in the western-most part of the study region. Sampling was completed at the remaining 34 sites in offshore waters between the Mississippi River delta and Freeport, Texas, representing an estimated 75,591 square kilometers. Field sampling followed standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels). Water depths ranged from 13 – 83 m throughout the study area. About 9 % of the area had sediments composed of sands (< 20 % silt+clay), 47 % of the area was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20 – 80 % silt+clay), and 44 % of the sampled area consisted of mud (> 80 % silt+clay). About 50 % of the area (represented by 17 sites) had sediment total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations < 5 mg/g and all of the sites sampled had levels of TOC < 20 mg/g, well below the range associated with potentially harmful effects to benthic fauna (> 50 mg/g). Surface salinities ranged from 23.4 – 36.5 psu, with salinity generally increasing with distance west of the Mississippi River delta. Bottom salinities varied between 31.1 and 36.5 psu, with lowest values occurring at shallow, inner-shelf stations. Surface-water temperatures varied between 29.8 and 31.5 ºC, while near-bottom waters ranged in temperature from 19.4 – 31 ºC. An index of density stratification (Δσt) indicated that portions of coastal shelf waters in the northwestern GOM at the time of this sampling were strongly stratified. Values of Δσt at 19 of the 34 sites sampled in this study (56 % of the study area) ranged from 2.2 to 12.4, which is within the range considered to be indicative of strong vertical stratification (Δσt > 2). Stratification was strongest close to the Mississippi River delta, and decreased with distance west of the delta.

Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks serve as sentinel habitats for assessing the impact of coastal development on ecosystem health

A study was conducted, in association with the Alabama and Mississippi National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as well as the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina NERRs in the Southeast (SE), to evaluate the impacts of coastal development on tidal creek sentinel habitats, including potential impacts to human health and well-being. Uplands associated with Southeast and Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks, and the salt marshes they drain, are popular locations for building homes, resorts, and recreational facilities because of the high quality of life and mild climate associated with these environments. Tidal creeks form part of the estuarine ecosystem characterized by high biological productivity, great ecological value, complex environmental gradients, and numerous interconnected processes. This research combined a watershed-level study integrating ecological, public health and human dimension attributes with watershed-level land cover data. The approach used for this research was based upon a comparative watershed and ecosystem approach that sampled tidal creek networks draining developed watersheds (e.g., suburban, urban, and industrial) as well as undeveloped sites (Holland et al. 2004, Sanger et al. 2008). The primary objective of this work was to define the relationships between coastal development with its concomitant land cover changes, and non-point source pollution loading and the ecological and human health and wellbeing status of tidal creek ecosystems. Nineteen tidal creek systems, located along the Southeastern United States coast from southern North Carolina to southern Georgia, and five Gulf of Mexico systems from Alabama and Mississippi were sampled during summer (June-August) 2005, 2006 (SE) and 2008 (GoM). Within each system, creeks were divided into two primary segments based upon tidal zoning: intertidal (i.e., shallow, narrow headwater sections) and subtidal (i.e., deeper and wider sections), and watersheds were delineated for each segment. In total, we report findings on 29 intertidal and 24 subtidal creeks. Indicators sampled throughout each creek included water quality (e.g., dissolved oxygen, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll-a levels), sediment quality (e.g., characteristics, contaminant levels including emerging contaminants), pathogen and viral indicators (e.g., fecal coliform, enterococci, F+ coliphages, F- coliphages), and abundance and tissue contamination of biological resources (e.g., macrobenthic and nektonic communities, shellfish tissue contaminants). Tidal creeks have been identified as a sentinel habitat to assess the impacts of coastal development on estuarine areas in the southeastern US. A conceptual model for tidal creeks in the southeastern US identifies that human alterations (stressors) of upland in a watershed such as increased impervious cover will lead to changes in the physical and chemical environment such as microbial and nutrient pollution (exposures), of a receiving water body which then lead to changes in the living resources (responses). The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the current tidal creek classification framework and conceptual model linking tidal creek ecological condition to potential impacts of development and urban growth on ecosystem value and function in the Gulf of Mexico US in collaboration with Gulf of Mexico NERR sites. The conceptual model was validated for the Gulf of Mexico US tidal creeks. The tidal creek classification system developed for the southeastern US could be applied to the Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks; however, some differences were found that warrant further examination. In particular, pollutants appeared to translate further downstream in the Gulf of Mexico US compared to the southeastern US. These differences are likely the result of the morphological and oceanographic differences between the two regions. Tidal creeks appear to serve as sentinel habitats to provide an early warning of the ensuing harm to the larger ecosystem in both the Southeastern and Gulf of Mexico US tidal creeks.

Cruise report: regional assessment of ecosystem condition and stressor impacts along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Shelf. NOAA Ship 'Nancy Foster' NF-11-07-RACOW (August 8-16, 2011)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted along a portion of the U.S. continental shelf in northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), at navigable depths along the coastline seaward to the shelf break (~100m) from about 89°30' W to 95°28' W longitude, August 8 – 16, 2011 on NOAA Ship Nancy Foster Cruise NF-11-07-RACOW. Synoptic sampling of multiple ecological indicators was conducted at each of 34 stations throughout these waters using a random probabilistic sampling design. The original study design consisted of 50 stations extending from the Mississippi delta all the way to the U.S./Mexican border, but vessel failures precluded sampling at 16 stations within the western-most portion of the study area. At each station samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants in sediments and target demersal biota; sediment toxicity; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. Other indicators, from a human-dimension perspective, were also recorded, including presence of vessels, oil rigs, surface trash, visual oil sheens in sediments or water, marine mammals, or noxious/oily sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout the region, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. While sample analysis is still ongoing, some preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed.

Cruise report: regional assessment of ecosystem condition and stressor impacts along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico shelf; NOAA Ship Nancy Foster NF-10-09-RACOW (August 13-21, 2010)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted along the continental shelf of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), encompassing 70,062 square kilometers of productive marine habitats located between the Mississippi Delta and Tampa Bay, August 13–21, 2010 on NOAA Ship Nancy Foster Cruise NF-10-09-RACOW. Synoptic sampling of multiple ecological indicators was conducted at each of 50 stations throughout these waters using a random probabilistic sampling design. At each station samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, TPHs, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; sediment toxicity; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, CDOM fluorescence, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. Discrete water samples were collected just below the sea surface, in addition to any deeper subsurface depths where there was an occurrence of suspicious CDOM fluorescence signals, and analyzed for total BTEX/TPH and carcinogenic PAHs using immunoassay test kits. Other indicators of potential value from a human-dimension perspective were also recorded, including presence of any vessels, oil rigs, surface trash, visual oil sheens in sediments or water, marine mammals, or noxious/oily sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout the region, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. In addition to the original project goals, both the scientific scope and general location of this project are relevant to addressing potential ecological impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. While sample analysis is still ongoing, a few preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed.

Status of the coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: Florida, Flower Garden Banks, Puerto Rico, Navassa and USVI

This chapter covers coral reef areas under the jurisdiction of the USA in the Wider Caribbean: Florida; Flower Garden Banks; Puerto Rico; U.S. Virgin Islands; and Navassa. The following information is condensed from six chapters of The State of Coral Reef Ecosystems of the United States and Pacific Freely Associated States: 2008. Access to the full text of this comprehensive report is available at: http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/stateofthereefs.

Historical nitrogen and phosphorus loadings to the northern Gulf of Mexico

Primary productivity in many coastal systems is nitrogen (N) limited; although, phytoplankton productivity may be limited by phosphorus (P) seasonally or in portions of an estuary. Increases in loading of limiting nutrients to coastal ecosystems may lead to eutrophication (Nixon 1996). Anthropogenically enhanced eutrophication includes symptoms such as loss of seagrass beds, changes in algal community composition, increased algal (phytoplankton) blooms (Richardson et al. 2001), hypoxic or anoxic events, and fish kills (Bricker et al. 2003).

Abundance of cetaceans in the oceanic northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003 and 2004 ship surveys

The Gulf of Mexico (GMx) is a subtropical marginal sea of the western North Atlantic Ocean with a diverse cetacean community. Ship-based, line-transect abundance surveys were conducted in oceanic waters (>200 m deep) of the northern GMx within U.S. waters (380,432 square km) during summer 2003 and spring 2004. Data from these surveys were pooled and minimum abundance estimates were based on 10,933 km of effort and 433 sightings of at least 17 species.The most commonly sighted species (number of groups) were pantropical spotted dolphin, Stenella attenuata (115); sperm whale, Physeter macrocephalus (85); dwarf/pygmy sperm whale, Kogia sima/breviceps (27); Risso’s dolphin, Grampus griseus (26); and bottlenose dolphin, Tursiops truncatus (26). The most abundant species (number of individuals; coefficient of variation) were S. attenuata (34,067; 0.18); Clymene dolphin, S. clymene (6,575; 0.36); T. truncatus (3,708; 0.42); and striped dolphin, S. coeruleoalba (3,325; 0.48). The only large whales sighted were P. macrocephalus (1,665; 0.20) and Bryde’s whale, Balaenoptera edeni (15; 1.98). Abundances for other species or genera ranged from 57 to 2,283 animals. Cetaceanswere sighted throughout the oceanic northern GMx, and whereas many species were widely distributed, some had more regional distributions. Compared to abundance estimates for this area based on 1996-2001 surveys, the estimate for S. attenuata was significantly smaller (P <0.05) and that for the spinner dolphin, S. longirostris, appeared much smaller. Also, P. macrocephalus estimates were based on less negatively biased estimates of group-size using 90-minute counts during 2003 and 2004.

Red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) demographic structure in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on spatial patterns in growth rates and morphometrics

Red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) in the United States waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been considered a single unit stock since management of the species began in 1991. The validity of this assumption is essential to management decisions because measures of growth can differ for nonmixing populations. We examined growth rates, size-at-age, and length and weight information of red snapper collected from the recreational harvests of Alabama (n=2010), Louisiana (n=1905), and Texas (n =1277) from 1999 to 2001. Ages were obtained from 5035 otolith sections and ranged from one to 45 years. Fork length, total weight, and age-frequency distributions differed significantly among all states; Texas, however, had a much higher proportion of smaller, younger fish. All red snapper showed rapid growth until about age 10 years, after which growth slowed considerably. Von Bertalanffy growth models of both mean fork length and mean total weight-at-age predicted significantly smaller fish at age from Texas, whereas no differences were found between Alabama and Louisiana models. Texas red snapper were also shown to differ significantly from both Alabama and Louisiana red snapper in regressions of mean weight at age. Demographic variation in growth rates may indicate the existence of separate management units of red snapper in the GOM. Our data indicate that the red snapper inhabiting the waters off Texas are reaching smaller maximum sizes at a faster rate and have a consistently smaller total weight at age than those collected from Louisiana and Alabama waters. Whether these differences are environmentally induced or are the result of genetic divergence remains to be determined, but they should be considered for future management regulations.

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality of fish larvae in the subtropical northcentral Gulf of Mexico: implications for assessing recruitment success

Extensive plankton collections were taken during seven September cruises (1990–93) along the inner continental shelf of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Despite the high productivity and availability of food during these cruises, significant small-scale spatial variability was found in larval growth rates for both Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Carangidae) and vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens, Lutjanidae). The observed variability in larval growth rates was not correlated with changes in water temperature or associated with conspicuous hydrographic features and suggested the existence of less-recognizable regions where conditions for growth vary. Cruise estimates of mortality coefficients (Z) for larval Atlantic bumper (n=32,241 larvae from six cruises) and vermilion snapper (n= 2581 larvae from four cruises) ranged from 0.20 to 0.37 and 0.19 to 0.29, respectively. Even in a subtropical climate like the GOM, where larval-stage durations may be as short as two weeks, observed variability in growth rates, particularly when combined with small changes in mortality rates, can cause order-of-magnitude differences in cumulative larval survival. To what extent the observed differences in growth rates at small spatial scales are fine-scale “noise” that ultimately is smoothed by larger-scale processes is not known. Future research is needed to further characterize the small-scale variability in growth rates of larvae, particularly with regard to microzooplankton patchiness and the temporal and spatial pattern of potential predators. Small-scale spatial variability in larval growth rates may in fact be the norm, and understanding the implications of this subtle mosaic may help us to better evaluate our ability to partition the causes of recruitment variability.

Life history and population dynamics of the finetooth shark (Carcharhinus isodon) in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

The life history and population dynamics of the finetooth shark (Carcharhinus isodon) in the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico were studied by determining age, growth, size-at-maturity, natural mortality, productivity, and elasticity of vital rates of the population. The von Bertalanffy growth model was estimated as Lt=1559 mm TL (1–e–0.24 (t+2.07)) for females and Lt = 1337 mm TL (1–e–0.41 (t+1.39)) for males. For comparison, the Fabens growth equation was also fitted separately to observed size-at-age data, and the fits to the data were found to be similar. The oldest aged specimens were 8.0 and 8.1 yr, and theoretical longevity estimates were 14.4 and 8.5 yr for females and males, respectively. Median length at maturity was 1187 and 1230 mm TL, equivalent to 3.9 and 4.3 yr for males and females, respectively. Two scenarios, based on the results of the two equations used to describe growth, were considered for population modeling and the results were similar. Annual rates of survivorship estimated through five methods ranged from 0.850/yr to 0.607/yr for scenario 1 and from 0.840/yr to 0.590/yr for scenario 2. Productivities were 0.041/yr for scenario 1 and 0.038/yr for scenario 2 when the population level that produces maximum sustain-able yield is assumed to occur at an instantaneous total mortality rate (Z) equaling 1.5 M, and were 0.071/yr and 0.067/yr, when Z=2 M for scenario 1 and 2, respectively. Mean generation time was 6.96 yr and 6.34 yr for scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Elasticities calculated through simulation of Leslie matrices averaged 12.6% (12.1% for scenario 2) for fertility, 47.7% (46.2% for scenario 2) for juvenile survival, and 39.7% (41.6% for scenario 2) for adult survival. In all, the finetooth shark exhibits life-history and population characteristics intermediate to those of sharks in the small coastal complex and those from some large coastal species, such as the blacktip shark (Carcharhinus limbatus).