Cold and heat waves in the United States

Extreme cold and heat waves, characterised by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people’s cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987–2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave’s timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the ninety-fifth to ninety-ninth percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for cold or hot temperatures.

Tactically-driven nonmonotone travelling waves

Models of cell invasion incorporating directed cell movement up a gradient of an external substance and carrying capacity-limited proliferation give rise to travelling wave solutions. Travelling wave profiles with various shapes, including smooth monotonically decreasing, shock-fronted monotonically decreasing and shock-fronted nonmonotone shapes, have been reported previously in the literature. The existence of tacticallydriven shock-fronted nonmonotone travelling wave solutions is analysed for the first time. We develop a necessary condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions. This condition shows that some of the previously reported shock-fronted nonmonotone solutions are genuine while others are a consequence of numerical error. Our results demonstrate that, for certain conditions, travelling wave solutions can be either smooth and monotone, smooth and nonmonotone or discontinuous and nonmonotone. These different shapes correspond to different invasion speeds. A necessary and sufficient condition for the travelling wave with minimum wave speed to be nonmonotone is presented. Several common forms of the tactic sensitivity function have the potential to satisfy the newly developed condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions developed in this work.

Sediment-transport (wind) experiments in zero gravity

The carousel wind tunnel (CWT) can be a significant tool for the determination of the nature and magnitude of interparticlar forces at threshold of motion. By altering particle and drum surface electrical properties and/or by applying electric potential difference across the inner and outer drums, it should be possible to separate electrostatic effects from other forces of cohesion. Besides particle trajectory and bedform analyses, suggestions for research include particle aggregation in zero and sub-gravity environments, effect of suspension-saltation ratio on soil abrasion, and the effects of shear and shear free turbulence on particle aggregation as applied to evolution of solar nebula.

Travelling waves for a velocity–jump model of cell migration and proliferation

Cell invasion, characterised by moving fronts of cells, is an essential aspect of development, repair and disease. Typically, mathematical models of cell invasion are based on the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. These traditional parabolic models can not be used to represent experimental measurements of individual cell velocities within the invading population since they imply that information propagates with infinite speed. To overcome this limitation we study combined cell motility and proliferation based on a velocity–jump process where information propagates with finite speed. The model treats the total population of cells as two interacting subpopulations: a subpopulation of left–moving cells, $L(x,t)$, and a subpopulation of right–moving cells, $R(x,t)$. This leads to a system of hyperbolic partial differential equations that includes a turning rate, $\Lambda \ge 0$, describing the rate at which individuals in the population change direction of movement. We present exact travelling wave solutions of the system of partial differential equations for the special case where $\Lambda = 0$ and in the limit that $\Lambda \to \infty$. For intermediate turning rates, $0 < \Lambda < \infty$, we analyse the travelling waves using the phase plane and we demonstrate a transition from smooth monotone travelling waves to smooth nonmonotone travelling waves as $\Lambda$ decreases through a critical value $\Lambda_{crit}$. We conclude by providing a qualitative comparison between the travelling wave solutions of our model and experimental observations of cell invasion. This comparison indicates that the small $\Lambda$ limit produces results that are consistent with experimental observations.

Gravity-driven fingering simulations for a thin liquid film flowing down the outside of a vertical cylinder

A numerical study is presented to examine the fingering instability of a gravity-driven thin liquid film flowing down the outer wall of a vertical cylinder. The lubrication approximation is employed to derive an evolution equation for the height of the film, which is dependent on a single parameter, the dimensionless cylinder radius. This equation is identified as a special case of that which describes thin film flow down an inclined plane. Fully three-dimensional simulations of the film depict a fingering pattern at the advancing contact line. We find the number of fingers observed in our simulations to be in excellent agreement with experimental observations and a linear stability analysis reported recently by Smolka & SeGall (Phys Fluids 23, 092103 (2011)). As the radius of the cylinder decreases, the modes of perturbation have an increased growth rate, thus increasing cylinder curvature partially acts to encourage the contact line instability. In direct competition with this behaviour, a decrease in cylinder radius means that fewer fingers are able to form around the circumference of the cylinder. Indeed, for a sufficiently small radius, a transition is observed, at which point the contact line is stable to transverse perturbations of all wavenumbers. In this regime, free surface instabilities lead to the development of wave patterns in the axial direction, and the flow features become perfectly analogous to the two-dimensional flow of a thin film down an inverted plane as studied by Lin & Kondic (Phys Fluids 22, 052105 (2010)). Finally, we simulate the flow of a single drop down the outside of the cylinder. Our results show that for drops with low volume, the cylinder curvature has the effect of increasing drop speed and hence promoting the phenomenon of pearling. On the other hand, drops with much larger volume evolve to form single long rivulets with a similar shape to a finger formed in the aforementioned simulations.

Numerical solutions for thin film flow down the outside and inside of a vertical cylinder

We consider a model for thin film flow down the outside and inside of a vertical cylinder. Our focus is to study the effect that the curvature of the cylinder has on the gravity-driven instability of the advancing contact line and to simulate the resulting fingering patterns that form due to this instability. The governing partial differential equation is fourth order with a nonlinear degenerate diffusion term that represents the stabilising effect of surface tension. We present numerical solutions obtained by implementing an efficient alternating direction implicit scheme. When compared to the problem of flow down a vertical plane, we find that increasing substrate curvature tends to increase the fingering instability for flow down the outside of the cylinder, whereas flow down the inside of the cylinder substrate curvature has the opposite effect. Further, we demonstrate the existence of nontrivial travelling wave solutions which describe fingering patterns that propagate down the inside of a cylinder at constant speed without changing form. These solutions are perfectly analogous to those found previously for thin film flow down an inclined plane.

Lattice-free models of cell invasion : discrete simulations and travelling waves

Invasion waves of cells play an important role in development, disease and repair. Standard discrete models of such processes typically involve simulating cell motility, cell proliferation and cell-to-cell crowding effects in a lattice-based framework. The continuum-limit description is often given by a reaction–diffusion equation that is related to the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. One of the limitations of a standard lattice-based approach is that real cells move and proliferate in continuous space and are not restricted to a predefined lattice structure. We present a lattice-free model of cell motility and proliferation, with cell-to-cell crowding effects, and we use the model to replicate invasion wave-type behaviour. The continuum-limit description of the discrete model is a reaction–diffusion equation with a proliferation term that is different from lattice-based models. Comparing lattice based and lattice-free simulations indicates that both models lead to invasion fronts that are similar at the leading edge, where the cell density is low. Conversely, the two models make different predictions in the high density region of the domain, well behind the leading edge. We analyse the continuum-limit description of the lattice based and lattice-free models to show that both give rise to invasion wave type solutions that move with the same speed but have very different shapes. We explore the significance of these differences by calibrating the parameters in the standard Fisher–Kolmogorov equation using data from the lattice-free model. We conclude that estimating parameters using this kind of standard procedure can produce misleading results.

Synthesis and characterisation of titanium sol-gels in varied gravity environments

Sol-gel synthesis in varied gravity is only a relatively new topic in the literature and further investigation is required to explore its full potential as a method to synthesise novel materials. Although trialled for systems such as silica, the specific application of varied gravity synthesis to other sol-gel systems such as titanium has not previously been undertaken. Current literature methods for the synthesis of sol-gel material in reduced gravity could not be applied to titanium sol-gel processing, thus a new strategy had to be developed in this study. To successfully conduct experiments in varied gravity a refined titanium sol-gel chemical precursor had to be developed which allowed the single solution precursor to remain un-reactive at temperatures up to 50oC and only begin to react when exposed to a pressure decrease from a vacuum. Due to the new nature of this precursor, a thorough characterisation of the reaction precursors was subsequently undertaken with the use of techniques such as Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, Infra-red and UV-Vis spectroscopy in order to achieve sufficient understanding of precursor chemistry and kinetic stability. This understanding was then used to propose gelation reaction mechanisms under varied gravity conditions. Two unique reactor systems were designed and built with the specific purpose to allow the effects of varied gravity (high, normal, reduced) during synthesis of titanium sol-gels to be studied. The first system was a centrifuge capable of providing high gravity environments of up to 70 g’s for extended periods, whilst applying a 100 mbar vacuum and a temperature of 40-50oC to the reaction chambers. The second system to be used in the QUT Microgravity Drop Tower Facility was also required to provide the same thermal and vacuum conditions used in the centrifuge, but had to operate autonomously during free fall. Through the use of post synthesis characterisation techniques such as Raman Spectroscopy, X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and N2 adsorption, it was found that increased gravity levels during synthesis, had the greatest effect on the final products. Samples produced in reduced and normal gravity appeared to form amorphous gels containing very small particles with moderate surface areas. Whereas crystalline anatase (TiO2), was found to form in samples synthesised above 5 g with significant increases in crystallinity, particle size and surface area observed when samples were produced at gravity levels up to 70 g. It is proposed that for samples produced in higher gravity, an increased concentration gradient of water is forms at the bottom of the reacting film due to forced convection. The particles formed in higher gravity diffuse downward towards this excess of water, which favours the condensation reaction of remaining sol gel precursors with the particles promoting increased particle growth. Due to the removal of downward convection in reduced gravity, particle growth due to condensation reaction processes are physically hindered hydrolysis reactions favoured instead. Another significant finding from this work was that anatase could be produced at relatively low temperatures of 40-50oC instead of the conventional method of calcination above 450oC solely through sol-gel synthesis at higher gravity levels. It is hoped that the outcomes of this research will lead to an increased understanding of the effects of gravity on chemical synthesis of titanium sol-gel, potentially leading to the development of improved products suitable for diverse applications such as semiconductor or catalyst materials as well as significantly reducing production and energy costs through manufacturing these materials at significantly lower temperatures.

Segmental torso masses and gravity-induced coronal plane joint moments in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Introduction: Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. This study used supine CT scans of AIS patients to measure segmental torso masses and explored the joint moments in the coronal plane, particularly at the apex of a scoliotic major curve. Methods: Existing low dose CT data from the Paediatric Spine Research Group was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint moments occurring in the spine for a group of 20 female AIS patients with right sided thoracic curves. The mean age was 15.0 ± 2.7 years and all curves were classified Lenke Type 1 with a mean Cobb angle 52 ± 5.9°. Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to create reformatted coronal plane images, reconstruct vertebral level-by-level torso segments and subsequently measure the torso volume corresponding to each vertebral level. Segment mass was then determined by assuming a tissue density of 1.04x103 kg/m3. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data (Winter 2009). Intervertebral joint moments in the coronal plane at each vertebral level were found from the position of the centroid of the segment masses relative to the joint centres with the segmental body mass data. Results and Discussion: The magnitude of the torso masses from T1-L5 increased inferiorly, with a 150% increase in mean segmental torso mass from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The magnitudes of the calculated coronal plane joint moments during relaxed standing were typically 5-7 Nm at the apex of the curve, with the highest apex joint torque of 7Nm. The CT scans were performed in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be 7-10° smaller than those measured in standing, due to the absence of gravity acting on the spine. Hence, it can be expected that the moments produced by gravity in the standing individual will be greater than those calculated here.

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.

Morphology of osteocyte cells in normal and hyper-gravity

Osteocyte cells are the most abundant cells in human bone tissue. Due to their unique morphology and location, osteocyte cells are thought to act as regulators in the bone remodelling process, and are believed to play an important role in astronauts’ bone mass loss after long-term space missions. There is increasing evidence showing that an osteocyte’s functions are highly affected by its morphology. However, changes in an osteocyte’s morphology under an altered gravity environment are still not well documented. Several in vitro studies have been recently conducted to investigate the morphological response of osteocyte cells to the microgravity environment, where osteocyte cells were cultured on a two-dimensional flat surface for at least 24 hours before microgravity experiments. Morphology changes of osteocyte cells in microgravity were then studied by comparing the cell area to 1g control cells. However, osteocyte cells found in vivo are with a more 3D morphology, and both cell body and dendritic processes are found sensitive to mechanical loadings. A round shape osteocyte’s cells support a less stiff cytoskeleton and are more sensitive to mechanical stimulations compared with flat cellular morphology. Thus, the relative flat and spread shape of isolated osteocytes in 2D culture may greatly hamper their sensitivity to a mechanical stimulus, and the lack of knowledge on the osteocyte’s morphological characteristics in culture may lead to subjective and noncomprehensive conclusions of how altered gravity impacts on an osteocyte’s morphology. Through this work empirical models were developed to quantitatively predicate the changes of morphology in osteocyte cell lines (MLO-Y4) in culture, and the response of osteocyte cells, which are relatively round in shape, to hyper-gravity stimulation has also been investigated. The morphology changes of MLO-Y4 cells in culture were quantified by measuring cell area and three dimensionless shape features including aspect ratio, circularity and solidity by using widely accepted image analysis software (ImageJTM). MLO-Y4 cells were cultured at low density (5×103 per well) and the changes in morphology were recorded over 10 hours. Based on the data obtained from the imaging analysis, empirical models were developed using the non-linear regression method. The developed empirical models accurately predict the morphology of MLO-Y4 cells for different culture times and can, therefore, be used as a reference model for analysing MLO-Y4 cell morphology changes within various biological/mechanical studies, as necessary. The morphological response of MLO-Y4 cells with a relatively round morphology to hyper-gravity environment has been investigated using a centrifuge. After 2 hours culture, MLO-Y4 cells were exposed to 20g for 30mins. Changes in the morphology of MLO-Y4 cells are quantitatively analysed by measuring the average value of cell area and dimensionless shape factors such as aspect ratio, solidity and circularity. In this study, no significant morphology changes were detected in MLO-Y4 cells under a hyper-gravity environment (20g for 30 mins) compared with 1g control cells.

Segmental torso masses and joint torques produced by gravity in the adolescent scoliotic spine

Introduction Calculating segmental torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. Methods Low dose CT data was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and spinal joint torques for 20 female AIS patients (mean age 15.0 ± 2.7 years, mean Cobb angle 53 ± 7.1°). ImageJ software (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to threshold the T1 to L5 CT images and calculate the segmental torso volume and mass for each vertebral level. Masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published data.1 Intervertebral joint torques in the coronal and sagittal planes at each vertebral level were found from the position of the centroid of the segment masses relative to the joint centres (assumed to be at the centre of the intervertebral disc). The joint torque at each level was found by summing torque contributions for all segments above that joint. Results Segmental torso mass increased from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The coronal plane joint torques due to gravity were 5-7Nm at the apex of the curve; sagittal torques were 3-5.4Nm. Conclusion CT scans were in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be smaller than those in standing.2 Hence, this study has shown that gravity produces joint torques potentially of higher than 7Nm in the coronal plane and 5Nm in the sagittal plane during relaxed standing in scoliosis patients. The magnitude of these torques may help to explain the mechanics of AIS progression and the mechanics of bracing. This new data on torso segmental mass in AIS patients will assist biomechanical models of scoliosis.

Liquid-vapour phase change : nucleate boiling of pure fluid and nanofluid under different gravity levels

This research was a step towards the comprehension of the nano-particles interaction with bubbles created during boiling. It was aimed at solving the controversies of whether the heat transfer is enhanced or deteriorated during the boiling of the nanofluid. Experiments were conducted in normal gravity and reduced gravity environments on-board the European Space Agency Parabolic Flight Program. The local modification of the thermo-physical properties of the fluid and moreover the modification experienced in the liquid microlayer under the growing vapour bubble were the dominant factors in explaining the mechanisms of the boiling behaviour of the nanofluid.

Waves for change : the role of the South Tarawa-based women's interests program in the decolonisation process of the Gilbert Islands

This thesis has created a space for women in the history of the decolonisation of the Gilbert Islands. It traces the historical development of the national women's interests program in the Republic of Kiribati (formerly of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands Colony (GEIC)) as it was implemented through a network of women's clubs during the 1960s and 1970s. This thesis has provided the first history and interpretation of the Indigenous women's interests movement as it impacted the Gilbert Islands. It offers a narrative of the movement in terms of three overlapping waves of women leaders, based on an analysis of fieldwork, archival research and interviews conducted on South Tarawa, Kiribati.