SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS OF MOUNT MEAGER, SOUTH-WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

The Mount Meager Volcanic Complex (MMVC) in south-western British Columbia is a potentially active, hydrothermally altered massif comprising a series of steep, glaciated peaks. Climatic conditions and glacial retreat has led to the further weathering, exposure and de-buttressing of steep slopes composed of weak, unconsolidated material. This has resulted in an increased frequency of landslide events over the past few decades, many of which have dammed the rivers bordering the Complex. The breach of these debris dams presents a risk of flooding to the downstream communities. Preliminary mapping showed there are numerous sites around the Complex where future failure could occur. Some of these areas are currently undergoing progressive slope movement and display features to support this such as anti-scarps and tension cracks. The effect of water infiltration on stability was modelled using the Rocscience program Slide 6.0. The main site of focus was Mount Meager in the south- east of the Complex where the most recent landslide took place. Two profiles through Mount Meager were analysed along with one other location in the northern section of the MMVC, where instability had been detected. The lowest Factor of Safety (FOS) for each profile was displayed and an estimate of the volume which could be generated was deduced. A hazard map showing the inundation zones for various volumes of debris flows was created from simulations using LAHARZ. Results showed the massif is unstable, even before infiltration. Varying the amount of infiltration appears to have no significant impact on the FOS annually implying that small changes of any kind could also trigger failure. Further modelling could be done to assess the impact of infiltration over shorter time scales. The Slide models show the volume of material that could be delivered to the Lillooet River Valley to be of the order of 109 m3 which, based on the LAHARZ simulations, would completely inundate the valley and communities downstream. A major hazard of this is that the removal of such a large amount of material has the potential to trigger an explosive eruption of the geothermal system and renew volcanic activity. Although events of this size are infrequent, there is a significant risk to the communities downstream of the complex.

STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE SLOPE ALONG US-2 BETWEEN EPOUFETTE BAY AND THE CUT RIVER BRIDGE

Recently, water was observed flowing from a section of steep slope along US-2 near St. Ignace, Michigan in addition to soil sloughing in the area where the water is flowing from the slope. An inspection of the area also showed the presence of sinkholes. The original construction drawing for US-2 also indicated that sinkholes were present in this area prior to road construction in 1948. An investigation was conducted to determine the overall stability of the slope. The slope consists primarily of aeolian sand deposits. Laboratory testing determined the shear strength of the slope material to have a friction angle around 30°, which is also the slope angle. Thus, the slope is at its maximum angle for stability—however, the slope is also heavily wooded which provides additional support to the slope. Although the area surrounding the water flow has been sloughing, the remaining slope remains intact.

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.

Global transcriptome analysis of Lactococcus garvieae strains in response to temperature

Lactococcus garvieae is an important fish and an opportunistic human pathogen. The genomic sequences of several L. garvieae strains have been recently published, opening the possibility of global studies on the biology of this pathogen. In this study, a whole genome DNA microarray of two strains of L. garvieae was designed and validated. This DNA microarray was used to investigate the effects of growth temperature (18°C and 37°C) on the transcriptome of two clinical strains of L. garvieae that were isolated from fish (Lg8831) and from a human case of septicemia (Lg21881). The transcriptome profiles evidenced a strain-specific response to temperature, which was more evident at 18°C. Among the most significant findings, Lg8831 was found to up-regulate at 18°C several genes encoding different cold-shock and cold-induced proteins involved in an efficient adaptive response of this strain to low-temperature conditions. Another relevant result was the description, for the first time, of respiratory metabolism in L. garvieae, whose gene expression regulation was temperature-dependent in Lg21881. This study provides new insights about how environmental factors such as temperature can affect L. garvieae gene expression. These data could improve our understanding of the regulatory networks and adaptive biology of this important pathogen.

Slope stability analysis using Phase 2

Analysing the rock slope stability is a classical problem for geotechnicalengineers. Recently, Hoek-Brown failure criterion has drawn more and more attentionfor rock slope stability assessments. It would be due to the fact that the nonlinearity ismore pronounced at the low confining stresses that are operational in slope stabilityproblems. However, it is still not popular yet. Therefore, in this study, slope stabilityanalyses will be performed based on the generalised Hoek-Brown failure criterionusing a commercial software, Phase 2. The Hoek-Brown strength parameters will beused as direct inputs in numerical simulations. In addition, two rock slope cases willbe investigated. It is expected that better understandings of rock slope mechanisms canbe obtained.

Structural sensitivity of spiral vortex breakdown

Previous numerical simulations have shown that vortex breakdown starts with the formation of a steady axisymmetric bubble and that an unsteady spiralling mode then develops on top of this. We investigate this spiral mode with a linear global stability analysis around the steady bubble and its wake. We obtain the linear direct and adjoint global modes of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations and overlap these to obtain the structural sensitivity of the spiral mode, which identifies the wavemaker region. We also identify regions of absolute instability with a local stability analysis. At moderate swirls, we find that the m=-1 azimuthal mode is the most unstable and that the wavemaker regions of the m=-1 mode lie around the bubble, which is absolutely unstable. The mode is most sensitive to feedback involving the radial and azimuthal components of momentum in the region just upstream of the bubble. To a lesser extent, the mode is also sensitive to feedback involving the axial component of momentum in regions of high shear around the bubble. At an intermediate swirl, in which the bubble and wake have similar absolute growth rates, other researchers have found that the wavemaker of the nonlinear global mode lies in the wake. We agree with their analysis but find that the regions around the bubble are more influential than the wake in determining the growth rate and frequency of the linear global mode. The results from this paper provide the first steps towards passive control strategies for spiral vortex breakdown. © 2013 Cambridge University Press.

A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium.

A mathematical model for the spread of streptococcus pneumoniae with transmission due to sequence type

This paper discusses a simple mathematical model to describe the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae. We suppose that the transmission of the bacterium is determined by multi-locus sequence type. The model includes vaccination and is designed to examine what happens in a vaccinated population if MLSTs can exist as both vaccine and non vaccine serotypes with capsular switching possible from the former to the latter. We start off with a discussion of Streptococcus pneumoniae and a review of previous work. We propose a simple mathematical model with two sequence types and then perform an equilibrium and (global) stability analysis on the model. We show that in general there are only three equilibria, the carriage-free equilibrium and two carriage equilibria. If the effective reproduction number Re is less than or equal to one, then the carriage will die out. If Re > 1, then the carriage will tend to the carriage equilibrium corresponding to the multi-locus sequence type with the largest transmission parameter. In the case where both multi-locus sequence types have the same transmission parameter then there is a line of carriage equilibria. Provided that carriage is initially present then as time progresses the carriage will approach a point on this line. The results generalize to many competing sequence types. Simulations with realistic parameter values confirm the analytical results.

Global linear and nonlinear stability of viscous confined plane wakes with co-flow

The global stability of confined uniform density wakes is studied numerically, using two-dimensional linear global modes and nonlinear direct numerical simulations. The wake inflow velocity is varied between different amounts of co-flow (base bleed). In accordance with previous studies, we find that the frequencies of both the most unstable linear and the saturated nonlinear global mode increase with confinement. For wake Reynolds number Re = 100 we find the confinement to be stabilising, decreasing the growth rate of the linear and the saturation amplitude of the nonlinear modes. The dampening effect is connected to the streamwise development of the base flow, and decreases for more parallel flows at higher Re. The linear analysis reveals that the critical wake velocities are almost identical for unconfined and confined wakes at Re ≈ 400. Further, the results are compared with literature data for an inviscid parallel wake. The confined wake is found to be more stable than its inviscid counterpart, whereas the unconfined wake is more unstable than the inviscid wake. The main reason for both is the base flow development. A detailed comparison of the linear and nonlinear results reveals that the most unstable linear global mode gives in all cases an excellent prediction of the initial nonlinear behaviour and therefore the stability boundary. However, the nonlinear saturated state is different, mainly for higher Re. For Re = 100, the saturated frequency differs less than 5% from the linear frequency, and trends regarding confinement observed in the linear analysis are confirmed.

Sensitivity analysis by neural networks applied to power systems transient stability

This work presents a procedure for transient stability analysis and preventive control of electric power systems, which is formulated by a multilayer feedforward neural network. The neural network training is realized by using the back-propagation algorithm with fuzzy controller and adaptation of the inclination and translation parameters of the nonlinear function. These procedures provide a faster convergence and more precise results, if compared to the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The adaptation of the training rate is effectuated by using the information of the global error and global error variation. After finishing the training, the neural network is capable of estimating the security margin and the sensitivity analysis. Considering this information, it is possible to develop a method for the realization of the security correction (preventive control) for levels considered appropriate to the system, based on generation reallocation and load shedding. An application for a multimachine power system is presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient numerical methods for global linear instability. Analysis and modeling of non-orthogonal swept attachment-line boundary layer flow

The aim of this thesis is to study the mechanisms of instability that occur in swept wings when the angle of attack increases. For this, a simplified model for the a simplified model for the non-orthogonal swept leading edge boundary layer has been used as well as different numerical techniques in order to solve the linear stability problem that describes the behavior of perturbations superposed upon this base flow. Two different approaches, matrix-free and matrix forming methods, have been validated using direct numerical simulations with spectral resolution. In this way, flow instability in the non-orthogonal swept attachment-line boundary layer is addressed in a linear analysis framework via the solution of the pertinent global (Bi-Global) PDE-based eigenvalue problem. Subsequently, a simple extension of the extended G¨ortler-H¨ammerlin ODEbased polynomial model proposed by Theofilis, Fedorov, Obrist & Dallmann (2003) for orthogonal flow, which includes previous models as particular cases and recovers global instability analysis results, is presented for non-orthogonal flow. Direct numerical simulations have been used to verify the stability results and unravel the limits of validity of the basic flow model analyzed. The effect of the angle of attack, AoA, on the critical conditions of the non-orthogonal problem has been documented; an increase of the angle of attack, from AoA = 0 (orthogonal flow) up to values close to _/2 which make the assumptions under which the basic flow is derived questionable, is found to systematically destabilize the flow. The critical conditions of non-orthogonal flows at 0 _ AoA _ _/2 are shown to be recoverable from those of orthogonal flow, via a simple analytical transformation involving AoA. These results can help to understand the mechanisms of destabilization that occurs in the attachment line of wings at finite angles of attack. Studies taking into account variations of the pressure field in the basic flow or the extension to compressible flows are issues that remain open. El objetivo de esta tesis es estudiar los mecanismos de la inestabilidad que se producen en ciertos dispositivos aerodinámicos cuando se aumenta el ángulo de ataque. Para ello se ha utilizado un modelo simplificado del flujo de base, así como diferentes técnicas numéricas, con el fin de resolver el problema de estabilidad lineal asociado que describe el comportamiento de las perturbaciones. Estos métodos; sin y con formación de matriz, se han validado utilizando simulaciones numéricas directas con resolución espectral. De esta manera, la inestabilidad del flujo de capa límite laminar oblicuo entorno a la línea de estancamiento se aborda en un marco de análisis lineal por medio del método Bi-Global de resolución del problema de valores propios en derivadas parciales. Posteriormente se propone una extensión simple para el flujo no-ortogonal del modelo polinomial de ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias, G¨ortler-H¨ammerlin extendido, propuesto por Theofilis et al. (2003) para el flujo ortogonal, que incluye los modelos previos como casos particulares y recupera los resultados del analisis global de estabilidad lineal. Se han realizado simulaciones directas con el fin de verificar los resultados del análisis de estabilidad así como para investigar los límites de validez del modelo de flujo base utilizado. En este trabajo se ha documentado el efecto del ángulo de ataque AoA en las condiciones críticas del problema no ortogonal obteniendo que el incremento del ángulo de ataque, de AoA = 0 (flujo ortogonal) hasta valores próximos a _/2, en el cual las hipótesis sobre las que se basa el flujo base dejan de ser válidas, tiende sistemáticamente a desestabilizar el flujo. Las condiciones críticas del caso no ortogonal 0 _ AoA _ _/2 pueden recuperarse a partir del caso ortogonal mediante el uso de una transformación analítica simple que implica el ángulo de ataque AoA. Estos resultados pueden ayudar a comprender los mecanismos de desestabilización que se producen en el borde de ataque de las alas de los aviones a ángulos de ataque finitos. Como tareas pendientes quedaría realizar estudios que tengan en cuenta variaciones del campo de presión en el flujo base así como la extensión de éste al caso de flujos compresibles.

On the Use of Matrix-Free Shift-Invert Strategies For Global Flow Instability Analysis

A novel time-stepping shift-invert algorithm for linear stability analysis of laminar flows in complex geometries is presented. This method, based on a Krylov subspace iteration, enables the solution of complex non-symmetric eigenvalue problems in a matrix-free framework. Validations and comparisons to the classical exponential method have been performed in three different cases: (i) stenotic flow, (ii) backward-facing step and (iii) lid-driven swirling flow. Results show that this new approach speeds up the required Krylov subspace iterations and has the capability of converging to specific parts of the global spectrum. It is shown that, although the exponential method remains the method of choice if leading eigenvalues are sought, the performance of the present method could be dramatically improved with the use of a preconditioner. In addition, as opposed to other methods, this strategy can be directly applied to any time-stepper, regardless of the temporal or spatial discretization of the latter.

Discrete linear stability and sensitivity analysis of fluid flows

Este trabajo presenta un método discreto para el cálculo de estabilidad hidrodinámica y análisis de sensibilidad a perturbaciones externas para ecuaciones diferenciales y en particular para las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compressible. Se utiliza una aproximación con variable compleja para obtener una precisión analítica en la evaluación de la matriz Jacobiana. Además, mapas de sensibilidad para la sensibilidad a las modificaciones del flujo de base y a una fuerza constante permiten identificar las regiones del campo fluido donde una modificacin (ej. fuerza puntual) tiene un efecto estabilizador del flujo. Se presentan cuatro casos de prueba: (1) un caso analítico para comprobar la derivación discreta, (2) una cavidad cerrada a bajo Reynolds para mostrar la mayor precisión en el cálculo de los valores propios con la aproximación de paso complejo, (3) flujo 2D en un cilindro circular para validar la metodología, y (4) flujo en un cavidad abierta, presentado para validar el método en casos de inestabilidades convectivamente inestables. Los tres últimos casos mencionados (2-4) se resolvieron con las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compresibles, utilizando un método Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Se obtuvo una buena concordancia para el caso de validación (3), cuando se comparó el nuevo método con resultados de la literatura. Además, este trabajo muestra que para el cálculo de los modos propios directos y adjuntos, así como para los mapas de sensibilidad, el uso de variables complejas es de suprema importancia para obtener una predicción precisa. El método descrito es aplicado al análisis para la estabilización de la estela generada por un disco actuador, que representa un modelo sencillo para hélices, rotores de helicópteros o turbinas eólicas. Se explora la primera bifurcación del flujo para un disco actuador, y se sugiere que está asociada a una inestabilidad de tipo Kelvin-Helmholtz, cuya estabilidad se controla con en el número de Reynolds y en la resistencia del disco actuador (o fuerza resistente). En primer lugar, se verifica que la disminución de la resistencia del disco tiene un efecto estabilizador parecido a una disminución del Reynolds. En segundo lugar, el análisis hidrodinmico discreto identifica dos regiones para la colocación de una fuerza puntual que controle las inestabilidades, una cerca del disco y otra en una zona aguas abajo. En tercer lugar, se muestra que la inclusión de un forzamiento localizado cerca del actuador produce una estabilización más eficiente que al forzar aguas abajo. El análisis de los campos de flujo controlados confirma que modificando el gradiente de velocidad cerca del actuador es más eficiente para estabilizar la estela. Estos resultados podrían proporcionar nuevas directrices para la estabilización de la estela de turbinas de viento o de marea cuando estén instaladas en un parque eólico y minimizar las interacciones no estacionarias entre turbinas. ABSTRACT A discrete framework for computing the global stability and sensitivity analysis to external perturbations for any set of partial differential equations is presented. In particular, a complex-step approximation is used to achieve near analytical accuracy for the evaluation of the Jacobian matrix. Sensitivity maps for the sensitivity to base flow modifications and to a steady force are computed to identify regions of the flow field where an input could have a stabilising effect. Four test cases are presented: (1) an analytical test case to prove the theory of the discrete framework, (2) a lid-driven cavity at low Reynolds case to show the improved accuracy in the calculation of the eigenvalues when using the complex-step approximation, (3) the 2D flow past a circular cylinder at just below the critical Reynolds number is used to validate the methodology, and finally, (4) the flow past an open cavity is presented to give an example of the discrete method applied to a convectively unstable case. The latter three (2–4) of the aforementioned cases were solved with the 2D compressible Navier–Stokes equations using a Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Good agreement was obtained for the validation test case, (3), with appropriate results in the literature. Furthermore, it is shown that for the calculation of the direct and adjoint eigenmodes and their sensitivity maps to external perturbations, the use of complex variables is paramount for obtaining an accurate prediction. An analysis for stabilising the wake past an actuator disc, which represents a simple model for propellers, helicopter rotors or wind turbines is also presented. We explore the first flow bifurcation for an actuator disc and it suggests that it is associated to a Kelvin- Helmholtz type instability whose stability relies on the Reynolds number and the flow resistance applied through the disc (or actuator forcing). First, we report that decreasing the disc resistance has a similar stabilising effect to an decrease in the Reynolds number. Second, a discrete sensitivity analysis identifies two regions for suitable placement of flow control forcing, one close to the disc and one far downstream where the instability originates. Third, we show that adding a localised forcing close to the actuator provides more stabilisation that forcing far downstream. The analysis of the controlled flow fields, confirms that modifying the velocity gradient close to the actuator is more efficient to stabilise the wake than controlling the sheared flow far downstream. An interesting application of these results is to provide guidelines for stabilising the wake of wind or tidal turbines when placed in an energy farm to minimise unsteady interactions.

Stability boundary analysis of the dynamic voltage restorer in weak systems with dynamic loads

In this contribution, a stability analysis for a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) connected to a weak ac system containing a dynamic load is presented using continuation techniques and bifurcation theory. The system dynamics are explored through the continuation of periodic solutions of the associated dynamic equations. The switching process in the DVR converter is taken into account to trace the stability regions through a suitable mathematical representation of the DVR converter. The stability regions in the Thevenin equivalent plane are computed. In addition, the stability regions in the control gains space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers, are computed. Besides, the DVR converter model employed in this contribution avoids the necessity of developing very complicated iterative map approaches as in the conventional bifurcation analysis of converters. The continuation method and the DVR model can take into account dynamics and nonlinear loads and any network topology since the analysis is carried out directly from the state space equations. The bifurcation approach is shown to be both computationally efficient and robust, since it eliminates the need for numerically critical and long-lasting transient simulations.

Vulnerability and damage analysis of reinforced concrete framed buildings subjected to near field blast events

Terrorists usually target high occupancy iconic and public buildings using vehicle borne incendiary devices in order to claim a maximum number of lives and cause extensive damage to public property. While initial casualties are due to direct shock by the explosion, collapse of structural elements may extensively increase the total figure. Most of these buildings have been or are built without consideration of their vulnerability to such events. Therefore, the vulnerability and residual capacity assessment of buildings to deliberately exploded bombs is important to provide mitigation strategies to protect the buildings' occupants and the property. Explosive loads and their effects on a building have therefore attracted significant attention in the recent past. Comprehensive and economical design strategies must be developed for future construction. This research investigates the response and damage of reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings together with their load bearing key structural components to a near field blast event. Finite element method (FEM) based analysis was used to investigate the structural framing system and components for global stability, followed by a rigorous analysis of key structural components for damage evaluation using the codes SAP2000 and LS DYNA respectively. The research involved four important areas in structural engineering. They are blast load determination, numerical modelling with FEM techniques, material performance under high strain rate and non-linear dynamic structural analysis. The response and damage of a RC framed building for different blast load scenarios were investigated. The blast influence region for a two dimensional RC frame was investigated for different load conditions and identified the critical region for each loading case. Two types of design methods are recommended for RC columns to provide superior residual capacities. They are RC columns detailing with multi-layer steel reinforcement cages and a composite columns including a central structural steel core. These are to provide post blast gravity load resisting capacity compared to typical RC column against a catastrophic collapse. Overall, this research broadens the current knowledge of blast and residual capacity analysis of RC framed structures and recommends methods to evaluate and mitigate blast impact on key elements of multi-storey buildings.