Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr−1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.

Efficacy of mechanical postconditioning following warm, global ischaemia depends on circulating fatty acid levels in an isolated, working rat heart model†

OBJECTIVES The number of heart transplantations is limited by donor organ availability. Donation after circulatory determination of death (DCDD) could significantly improve graft availability; however, organs undergo warm ischaemia followed by reperfusion, leading to tissue damage. Laboratory studies suggest that mechanical postconditioning [(MPC); brief, intermittent periods of ischaemia at the onset of reperfusion] can limit reperfusion injury; however, clinical translation has been disappointing. We hypothesized that MPC-induced cardioprotection depends on fatty acid levels at reperfusion. METHODS Experiments were performed with an isolated rat heart model of DCDD. Hearts of male Wistar rats (n = 42) underwent working-mode perfusion for 20 min (baseline), 27 min of global ischaemia and 60 min reperfusion with or without MPC (two cycles of 30 s reperfusion/30 s ischaemia) in the presence or absence of high fat [(HF); 1.2 mM palmitate]. Haemodynamic parameters, necrosis factors and oxygen consumption (O2C) were assessed. Recovery rate was calculated as the value at 60 min reperfusion expressed as a percentage of the mean baseline value. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to provide an overview of differences between experimental groups, and pairwise comparisons were performed to compare specific time points of interest for parameters with significant overall results. RESULTS Percent recovery of left ventricular (LV) work [developed pressure (DP)-heart rate product] at 60 min reperfusion was higher in hearts reperfused without fat versus with fat (58 ± 8 vs 23 ± 26%, P < 0.01) in the absence of MPC. In the absence of fat, MPC did not affect post-ischaemic haemodynamic recovery. Among the hearts reperfused with HF, two significantly different subgroups emerged according to recovery of LV work: low recovery (LoR) and high recovery (HiR) subgroups. At 60 min reperfusion, recovery was increased with MPC versus no MPC for LV work (79 ± 6 vs 55 ± 7, respectively; P < 0.05) in HiR subgroups and for DP (40 ± 27 vs 4 ± 2%), dP/dtmax (37 ± 24 vs 5 ± 3%) and dP/dtmin (33 ± 21 vs 5 ± 4%; P < 0.01 for all) in LoR subgroups. CONCLUSIONS Effects of MPC depend on energy substrate availability; MPC increased recovery of LV work in the presence, but not in the absence, of HF. Controlled reperfusion may be useful for therapeutic strategies aimed at improving post-ischaemic recovery of cardiac DCDD grafts, and ultimately in increasing donor heart availability.

An improved simple rat model for global cerebral ischaemia by induced cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVES Cerebral hypoxic-ischaemic injury following cardiac arrest is a devastating disease affecting thousands of patients each year. There is a complex interaction between post-resuscitation injury after whole-body ischaemia-reperfusion and cerebral damage which cannot be explored in in vitro systems only; there is a need for animal models. In this study, we describe and evaluate the feasibility and efficiency of our simple rodent cardiac arrest model. METHODS Ten wistar rats were subjected to 9 and 10 minutes of cardiac arrest. Cardiac arrest was introduced with a mixture of the short-acting beta-blocking drug esmolol and potassium chloride. RESULTS All animals could be resuscitated within 1 minute, and survived until day 5.General health score and neurobehavioural testing indicated substantial impairment after cardiac arrest, without differences between groups. Histological examination of the hippocampus CA1 segment, the most vulnerable segment of the cerebrum, demonstrated extensive damage in the cresyl violet staining, as well as in the Fluoro-Jade B staining and in the Iba-1 staining, indicating recruitment of microglia after the hypoxic-ischaemic event. Again, there were no differences between the 9- and 10-minute cardiac arrest groups. DISCUSSION We were able to establish a simple and reproducible 9- and 10-minute rodent cardiac arrest models with a well-defined no-flow-time. Extensive damage can be found in the hippocampus CA1 segment. The lack of difference between 9- and 10-minute cardiac arrest time in the neuropsychological, the open field test and the histological evaluations is mainly due to the small sample size.

Efficacy of mechanical postconditioning following warm, global ischaemia depends on circulating fatty acid levels in an isolated, working rat heart model

Gebiet: Chirurgie Abstract: OBJECTIVES: – The number of heart transplantations is limited by donor organ availability. Donation after circulatory determination of death (DCDD) could significantly improve graft availability, however, organs undergo warm ischaemia followed by reperfusion, leading to tissue damage. Laboratory studies suggest that mechanical postconditioning [(MPC), brief, intermittent periods of ischaemia at the onset of reperfusion] can limit reperfusion injury, however, clinical translation has been disappointing. We hypothesized that MPC-induced cardioprotection depends on fatty acid levels at reperfusion. – – METHODS: – Experiments were performed with an isolated rat heart model of DCDD. Hearts of male Wistar rats (n = 42) underwent working-mode perfusion for 20 min (baseline), 27 min of global ischaemia and 60 min reperfusion with or without MPC (two cycles of 30 s reperfusion/30 s ischaemia) in the presence or absence of high fat [(HF), 1.2 mM palmitate]. Haemodynamic parameters, necrosis factors and oxygen consumption (O2C) were assessed. Recovery rate was calculated as the value at 60 min reperfusion expressed as a percentage of the mean baseline value. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to provide an overview of differences between experimental groups, and pairwise comparisons were performed to compare specific time points of interest for parameters with significant overall results. – – RESULTS: – Percent recovery of left ventricular (LV) work [developed pressure (DP)-heart rate product] at 60 min reperfusion was higher in hearts reperfused without fat versus with fat (58 ± 8 vs 23 ± 26%, P < 0.01) in the absence of MPC. In the absence of fat, MPC did not affect post-ischaemic haemodynamic recovery. Among the hearts reperfused with HF, two significantly different subgroups emerged according to recovery of LV work: low recovery (LoR) and high recovery (HiR) subgroups. At 60 min reperfusion, recovery was increased with MPC versus no MPC for LV work (79 ± 6 vs 55 ± 7, respectively, P < 0.05) in HiR subgroups and for DP (40 ± 27 vs 4 ± 2%), dP/dtmax (37 ± 24 vs 5 ± 3%) and dP/dtmin (33 ± 21 vs 5 ± 4%, P < 0.01 for all) in LoR subgroups. – – CONCLUSIONS: – Effects of MPC depend on energy substrate availability, MPC increased recovery of LV work in the presence, but not in the absence, of HF. Controlled reperfusion may be useful for therapeutic strategies aimed at improving post-ischaemic recovery of cardiac DCDD grafts, and ultimately in increasing donor heart availability.

Concomitant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and type 2 diabetes: A descriptive model with global health implications

The type 2 diabetes (diabetes) pandemic is recognized as a threat to tuberculosis (TB) control worldwide. This secondary data analysis project estimated the contribution of diabetes to TB in a binational community on the Texas-Mexico border where both diseases occur. Newly-diagnosed TB patients > 20 years of age were prospectively enrolled at Texas-Mexico border clinics between January 2006 and November 2008. Upon enrollment, information regarding social, demographic, and medical risks for TB was collected at interview, including self-reported diabetes. In addition, self-reported diabetes was supported by blood-confirmation according to guidelines published by the American Diabetes Association (ADA). For this project, data was compared to existing statistics for TB incidence and diabetes prevalence from the corresponding general populations of each study site to estimate the relative and attributable risks of diabetes to TB. In concordance with historical sociodemographic data provided for TB patients with self-reported diabetes, our TB patients with diabetes also lacked the risk factors traditionally associated with TB (alcohol abuse, drug abuse, history of incarceration, and HIV infection); instead, the majority of our TB patients with diabetes were characterized by overweight/obesity, chronic hyperglycemia, and older median age. In addition, diabetes prevalence among our TB patients was significantly higher than in the corresponding general populations. Findings of this study will help accurately characterize TB patients with diabetes, thus aiding in the timely recognition and diagnosis of TB in a population not traditionally viewed as at-risk. We provide epidemiological and biological evidence that diabetes continues to be an increasingly important risk factor for TB.^

EOT11a - Global Empirical Ocean Tide model from multi-mission satellite altimetry, with links to model results

EOT11a is a global (E)mpirical (O)cean (T)ide model derived in 2011 by residual analysis of multi-mission satellite (a)ltimeter data. EOT11a includes amplitudes and phases of the main astronomical tides M2, S2, N2, K2, 2N2, O1, K1, P2, and Q1, the non-linear constituent M4, the long period tides Mm and Mf, and the radiational tide S1. Ocean tides as well as loading tides are provided. EOT11a was computed by means of residual tidal analysis of multi-mission altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2, ENVISAT, and Jason-1/2, as far as acquired between September 1992 and April 2010. The resolution of 7.5'x7.5' is identical with FES2004 which was used as reference model for the residual tide analysis. The development of EOT11a was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) under grant BO1228/6-2.

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 results of model data with Community Climate System Model version 3 including the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CCSM3-DGVM) in NetCDF format at global and regional scale

The climate of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, the interglacial roughly 400,000 years ago, is investigated for four time slices, 416, 410, 400, and 394 ka. The overall picture is that MIS 11 was a relatively warm interglacial in comparison to preindustrial, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures early in MIS 11 (416-410 ka) warmer than preindustrial, though winters were cooler. Later in MIS 11, especially around 400 ka, conditions were cooler in the NH summer, mainly in the high latitudes. Climate changes simulated by the models were mainly driven by insolation changes, with the exception of two local feedbacks that amplify climate changes. Here, the NH high latitudes, where reductions in sea ice cover lead to a winter warming early in MIS 11, as well as the tropics, where monsoon changes lead to stronger climate variations than one would expect on the basis of latitudinal mean insolation change alone, are especially prominent. The results support a northward expansion of trees at the expense of grasses in the high northern latitudes early during MIS 11, especially in northern Asia and North America.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

ETOPO1 Global Relief Model converted to PanMap layer format

ETOPO1 is a 1 arc-minute global relief model of Earth's surface that integrates land topography and ocean bathymetry. It was built from numerous global and regional data sets. Data were converted to the PanMap layer format in 14 contour lines from 500 to 7000 meter in steps of 500 m. The link provides a zip-archive (1.1 MB) with *.lay files. The PanMap Mini-GIS software is published at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.104840.