830 resultados para Global changes and construction of future scenarios
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Since it is very toxic and accumulates in organisms, particularly in fish, mercury is a very important pollutant and one of the most studies. And this concern over the toxicity and human health risks of mercury has prompted efforts to regulate anthropogenic emissions. As mercury pollution problem is getting increasingly serious, we are curious about how serious this problem will be in the future. What is more, how the climate change in the future will affect the mercury concentration in the atmosphere. So we investigate the impact of climate change on mercury concentration in the atmosphere. We focus on the comparison between the mercury data for year 2000 and for year 2050. The GEOS-Chem model shows that the mercury concentrations for all tracers (1 to 3), elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)) and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) have differences between 2000 and 2050 in most regions over the world. From the model results, we can see the climate change from 2000 to 2050 would decrease Hg(0) surface concentration in most of the world. The driving factors of Hg(0) surface concentration changes are natural emissions(ocean and vegetation) and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). The climate change from 2000 to 2050 would increase Hg(II) surface concentration in most of mid-latitude continental parts of the world while decreasing Hg(II) surface concentration in most of high-latitude part of the world. The driving factors of Hg(II) surface concentration changes is deposition amount change (majorly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050 and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). Climate change would increase Hg(P) concentration in most of mid-latitude area of the world and meanwhile decrease Hg(P) concentration in most of high-latitude regions of the world. For the Hg(P) concentration changes, the major driving factor is the deposition amount change (mainly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050.
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The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.
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While most events related to the International Year of Deserts and Desertification 2006 took mainly a problem-oriented perspective and approach, the Bern Symposium held in May 2006 tried to adopt a more positive attitude by attempting to take stock of experience as well as best and worst practices in the past, both in development practice and in research. Through this deliberate focus on potentials, positive experiences, solutions and pathways, predominant passive and reactive attitudes and hopelessness might be better overcome. The Symposium was organized by CDE, NCCR North-South and Forum SLM.
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Software Product Line Engineering (SPLE) has proved to have significant advantages in family-based software development, but also implies the up¬front design of a product-line architecture (PLA) from which individual product applications can be engineered. The big upfront design associated with PLAs is in conflict with the current need of "being open to change". However, the turbulence of the current business climate makes change inevitable in order to stay competitive, and requires PLAs to be open to change even late in the development. The trend of "being open to change" is manifested in the Agile Software Development (ASD) paradigm, but it is spreading to the domain of SPLE. To reduce the big upfront design of PLAs as currently practiced in SPLE, new paradigms are being created, one being Agile Product Line Engineering (APLE). APLE aims to make the development of product-lines more flexible and adaptable to changes as promoted in ASD. To put APLE into practice it is necessary to make mechanisms available to assist and guide the agile construction and evolution of PLAs while complying with the "be open to change" agile principle. This thesis defines a process for "the agile construction and evolution of product-line architectures", which we refer to as Agile Product-Line Archi-tecting (APLA). The APLA process provides agile architects with a set of models for describing, documenting and tracing PLAs, as well as an algorithm to analyze change impact. Both the models and the change impact analysis offer the following capabilities: Flexibility & adaptability at the time of defining software architectures, enabling change during the incremental and iterative design of PLAs (anticipated or planned changes) and their evolution (unanticipated or unforeseen changes). Assistance in checking architectural integrity through change impact analysis in terms of architectural concerns, such as dependencies on earlier design decisions, rationale, constraints, and risks, etc.Guidance in the change decision-making process through change im¬pact analysis in terms of architectural components and connections. Therefore, APLA provides the mechanisms required to construct and evolve PLAs that can easily be refined iteration after iteration during the APLE development process. These mechanisms are provided in a modeling frame¬work called FPLA. The contributions of this thesis have been validated through the conduction of a project regarding a metering management system in electrical power networks. This case study took place in an i-smart software factory and was in collaboration with the Technical University of Madrid and Indra Software Labs. La Ingeniería de Líneas de Producto Software (Software Product Line Engi¬neering, SPLE) ha demostrado tener ventajas significativas en el desarrollo de software basado en familias de productos. SPLE es un paradigma que se basa en la reutilización sistemática de un conjunto de características comunes que comparten los productos de un mismo dominio o familia, y la personalización masiva a través de una variabilidad bien definida que diferencia unos productos de otros. Este tipo de desarrollo requiere el diseño inicial de una arquitectura de línea de productos (Product-Line Architecture, PLA) a partir de la cual los productos individuales de la familia son diseñados e implementados. La inversión inicial que hay que realizar en el diseño de PLAs entra en conflicto con la necesidad actual de estar continuamente "abierto al cam¬bio", siendo este cambio cada vez más frecuente y radical en la industria software. Para ser competitivos es inevitable adaptarse al cambio, incluso en las últimas etapas del desarrollo de productos software. Esta tendencia se manifiesta de forma especial en el paradigma de Desarrollo Ágil de Software (Agile Software Development, ASD) y se está extendiendo también al ámbito de SPLE. Con el objetivo de reducir la inversión inicial en el diseño de PLAs en la manera en que se plantea en SPLE, en los último años han surgido nuevos enfoques como la Ingeniera de Líneas de Producto Software Ágiles (Agile Product Line Engineering, APLE). APLE propone el desarrollo de líneas de producto de forma más flexible y adaptable a los cambios, iterativa e incremental. Para ello, es necesario disponer de mecanismos que ayuden y guíen a los arquitectos de líneas de producto en el diseño y evolución ágil de PLAs, mientras se cumple con el principio ágil de estar abierto al cambio. Esta tesis define un proceso para la "construcción y evolución ágil de las arquitecturas de lineas de producto software". A este proceso se le ha denominado Agile Product-Line Architecting (APLA). El proceso APLA proporciona a los arquitectos software un conjunto de modelos para de¬scribir, documentar y trazar PLAs, así como un algoritmo para analizar vel impacto del cambio. Los modelos y el análisis del impacto del cambio ofrecen: Flexibilidad y adaptabilidad a la hora de definir las arquitecturas software, facilitando el cambio durante el diseño incremental e iterativo de PLAs (cambios esperados o previstos) y su evolución (cambios no previstos). Asistencia en la verificación de la integridad arquitectónica mediante el análisis de impacto de los cambios en términos de dependencias entre decisiones de diseño, justificación de las decisiones de diseño, limitaciones, riesgos, etc. Orientación en la toma de decisiones derivadas del cambio mediante el análisis de impacto de los cambios en términos de componentes y conexiones. De esta manera, APLA se presenta como una solución para la construcción y evolución de PLAs de forma que puedan ser fácilmente refinadas iteración tras iteración de un ciclo de vida de líneas de producto ágiles. Dicha solución se ha implementado en una herramienta llamada FPLA (Flexible Product-Line Architecture) y ha sido validada mediante su aplicación en un proyecto de desarrollo de un sistema de gestión de medición en redes de energía eléctrica. Dicho proyecto ha sido desarrollado en una fábrica de software global en colaboración con la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid e Indra Software Labs.
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We set out to define patterns of gene expression during kidney organogenesis by using high-density DNA array technology. Expression analysis of 8,740 rat genes revealed five discrete patterns or groups of gene expression during nephrogenesis. Group 1 consisted of genes with very high expression in the early embryonic kidney, many with roles in protein translation and DNA replication. Group 2 consisted of genes that peaked in midembryogenesis and contained many transcripts specifying proteins of the extracellular matrix. Many additional transcripts allied with groups 1 and 2 had known or proposed roles in kidney development and included LIM1, POD1, GFRA1, WT1, BCL2, Homeobox protein A11, timeless, pleiotrophin, HGF, HNF3, BMP4, TGF-α, TGF-β2, IGF-II, met, FGF7, BMP4, and ganglioside-GD3. Group 3 consisted of transcripts that peaked in the neonatal period and contained a number of retrotransposon RNAs. Group 4 contained genes that steadily increased in relative expression levels throughout development, including many genes involved in energy metabolism and transport. Group 5 consisted of genes with relatively low levels of expression throughout embryogenesis but with markedly higher levels in the adult kidney; this group included a heterogeneous mix of transporters, detoxification enzymes, and oxidative stress genes. The data suggest that the embryonic kidney is committed to cellular proliferation and morphogenesis early on, followed sequentially by extracellular matrix deposition and acquisition of markers of terminal differentiation. The neonatal burst of retrotransposon mRNA was unexpected and may play a role in a stress response associated with birth. Custom analytical tools were developed including “The Equalizer” and “eBlot,” which contain improved methods for data normalization, significance testing, and data mining.
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Both the current economic situation in the construction sector and the continuous normative changes in the building area imply the use of new methodologies to enhance students’ competences in the degree of Building Engineer. The aim of this paper is to present, analyse and discuss the development of constructive workshops as a new teaching methodology used in the subject of Construction of Structures I at the University of Alicante to complement the constructive and technical knowledge acquired by our students and to enhance their communicative and representation skills essential for their professional practice in the future. The used methodology is based on the development of three-dimensional construction details (in groups of 3 or 4 students) to be shown in two A1-pannels exposed in the corridors of the Polytechnic School. Thus, students’ work approaches constructive problems in a global way by discussing simultaneously with teachers and other groups about the most suitable solution on each case. This contribution has multiperspective results and improves criticism of students in different areas, encouraging new learning strategies and active participation. What is more, on-line information and web applications have been used to prepare and organize this kind of workshops, allowing students to use new technologies as a complementary learning methodology. In conclusion, the use of these new workshops in the Degree of Building Engineer stimulates an interactive class versus a traditional lecture where the participative groups´ attitude and the development of oral presentations dissolve the traditional boundaries regarding public communication skills of the students in the Degree.
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Bert M. Fernald, chairman.