Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Injection laryngoplasty with autologous fascia for treatment of unilateral vocal fold paralysis

The purpose of this dissertation was to study the applicability of minced autologous fascia graft for injection laryngoplasty of unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP). Permanence of augmentation and host versus graft tissue reactions were of special interest. The topic deals with phonosurgery, which is a subdivision of the Ear, Nose and Throat-speciality of medicine. UVFP results from an injury to the recurrent or the vagal nerve. The main symptom is a hoarse and weak voice. Surgery is warranted for patients in whom spontaneous reinnervation and a course of voice therapy fails to improve the voice. Injection laryngoplasty is a widespread surgical technique which aims to restore glottic closure by augmenting the atrophied vocal muscle, and also by turning the paralyzed vocal fold towards midline. Currently, there exists a great diversity of synthetic, xenologous, homologous, and autologous substances available for injection. An autologous graft is perfect in terms of biocompatibility. Free fascia grafts have been successfully used in the head and neck surgery for decades, but fascia had not been previously applied into the vocal fold. The fascia is harvested from the lateral thigh under local anesthesia and minced into paste by scissors. Injection of the vocal fold is performed in laryngomicroscopy under general anesthesia. Three series of clinical trials of injection laryngoplasty with autologous fascia (ILAF) for patients with UVFP were conducted at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology of the Helsinki University Central Hospital. The follow-up ranged from a few months to ten years. The aim was to document the vocal results and possible morbidity related to graft harvesting and vocal fold injection. To address the tissue reactions and the degree of reabsoprtion of the graft, an animal study with a follow-up ranging from 3 days to 12 months was performed at the National Laboratory Animal Center, University of Kuopio. Harvesting of the graft and injection was met with minor morbidity. Histological analysis of the vocal fold tissue showed that fascia was well tolerated. Although some resorption or compaction of the graft during the first months is evident, graft volume is maintained well. When injected deep and laterally into the vocalis muscle, the fascia graft allows normal vibration of the vocal fold mucosa to occur during phonation. Improvement of voice quality was seen in all series by multiple objective parameters of voice evaluation. However, the vocal results were poor in cases where the nerve trauma was severe, such as UVFP after chest surgery. ILAF is most suitable for correction of mild to moderate glottic gaps related to less severe nerve damage. Our results indicate that autologous fascia is a feasible and safe new injection material with good and stable vocal results. It offers a practical solution for surgeons who treat this complex issue.

Very Low Birth Weight Infants as Young Adults : Focus on aspects of cognition, behavior and sleep

Major advances in the treatment of preterm infants have occurred during the last three decades. Survival rates have increased, and the first generations of preterm infants born at very low birth weight (VLBW; less than 1500 g) who profited from modern neonatal intensive care are now in young adulthood. The literature shows that VLBW children achieve on average lower scores on cognitive tests, even after exclusion of individuals with obvious neurosensory deficits. Evidence also exists for an increased risk in VLBW children for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and related behavioral symptoms. Up till now, studies extending into adulthood are sparse, and it remains to be seen whether these problems persist into adulthood. The aim of this thesis was to study ADHD-related symptoms and cognitive and executive functioning in young adults born at VLBW. In addition, we aimed to study sleep disturbances, known to adversely affect both cognition and attention. We hypothesized that preterm birth at VLBW interferes with early brain development in a way that alters the neuropsychological phenotype; this may manifest itself as ADHD symptoms and impaired cognitive abilities in young adulthood. In this cohort study from a geographically defined region, we studied 166 VLBW adults and 172 term-born controls born from 1978 through 1985. At ages 18 to 27 years, the study participants took part in a clinic study during which their physical and psychological health was assessed in detail. Three years later, 213 of these individuals participated in a follow-up. The current study is part of a larger research project (The Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults), and the measurements of interest for this particular study include the following: 1) The Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), a self-rating scale of ADHD-related symptoms in adults; 2) A computerized cognitive test battery designed for population studies (CogState®) which measures core cognitive abilities such as reaction time, working memory, and visual learning; 3) Sleep assessment by actigraphy, the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire, and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Actigraphs are wrist-worn accelerometers that separate sleep from wakefulness by registering body movements. Contrary to expectations, VLBW adults as a group reported no more ADHD-related behavioral symptoms than did controls. Further subdivision of the VLBW group into SGA (small for gestational age) and AGA (appropriate for gestational age) subgroups, however, revealed more symptoms on ADHD subscales pertaining to executive dysfunction and emotional instability among those born SGA. Thus, it seems that intrauterine growth retardation (for which SGA served as a proxy) is a more essential predictor for self-perceived ADHD symptoms in adulthood than is VLBW birth as such. In line with observations from other cohorts, the VLBW adults reported less risk-taking behavior in terms of substance use (alcohol, smoking, and recreational drugs), a finding reassuring for the VLBW individuals and their families. On the cognitive test, VLBW adults free from neurosensory deficits had longer reaction times than did term-born peers on all tasks included in the test battery, and lower accuracy on the learning task, with no discernible effect of SGA status over and above the effect of VLBW. Altogether, on a group level, even high-functioning VLBW adults show subtle deficits in psychomotor processing speed, visual working memory, and learning abilities. The sleep studies provided no evidence for differences in sleep quality or duration between the two groups. The VLBW adults were, however, at more than two-fold higher risk for sleep-disordered breathing (in terms of chronic snoring). Given the link between sleep-disordered breathing and health sequelae, these results suggest that VLBW individuals may benefit from an increased awareness among clinicians of this potential problem area. An unexpected finding from the sleep studies was the suggestion of an advanced sleep phase: The VLBW adults went to bed earlier according to the actigraphy registrations and also reported earlier wake-up times on the questionnaire. In further study of this issue in conjunction with the follow-up three years later, the VLBW group reported higher levels of morningness propensity, further corroborating the preliminary findings of an advanced sleep phase. Although the clinical implications are not entirely clear, the issue may be worth further study, since circadian rhythms are closely related to health and well-being. In sum, we believe that increased understanding of long-term outcomes after VLBW, and identification of areas and subgroups that are particularly vulnerable, will allow earlier recognition of potential problems and ultimately lead to improved prevention strategies.

Integrating strong and weak discontinuities without integration subcells and example applications in an XFEM/GFEM framework

Partition of unity methods, such as the extended finite element method, allows discontinuities to be simulated independently of the mesh (Int. J. Numer. Meth. Engng. 1999; 45:601-620). This eliminates the need for the mesh to be aligned with the discontinuity or cumbersome re-meshing, as the discontinuity evolves. However, to compute the stiffness matrix of the elements intersected by the discontinuity, a subdivision of the elements into quadrature subcells aligned with the discontinuity is commonly adopted. In this paper, we use a simple integration technique, proposed for polygonal domains (Int. J. Nuttier Meth. Engng 2009; 80(1):103-134. DOI: 10.1002/nme.2589) to suppress the need for element subdivision. Numerical results presented for a few benchmark problems in the context of linear elastic fracture mechanics and a multi-material problem show that the proposed method yields accurate results. Owing to its simplicity, the proposed integration technique can be easily integrated in any existing code. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

From the Icosahedron to Natural Triangulations of CP(2) and S(2) x S(2)

We present two constructions in this paper: (a) a 10-vertex triangulation CP(10)(2) of the complex projective plane CP(2) as a subcomplex of the join of the standard sphere (S(4)(2)) and the standard real projective plane (RP(6)(2), the decahedron), its automorphism group is A(4); (b) a 12-vertex triangulation (S(2) x S(2))(12) of S(2) x S(2) with automorphism group 2S(5), the Schur double cover of the symmetric group S(5). It is obtained by generalized bistellar moves from a simplicial subdivision of the standard cell structure of S(2) x S(2). Both constructions have surprising and intimate relationships with the icosahedron. It is well known that CP(2) has S(2) x S(2) as a two-fold branched cover; we construct the triangulation CP(10)(2) of CP(2) by presenting a simplicial realization of this covering map S(2) x S(2) -> CP(2). The domain of this simplicial map is a simplicial subdivision of the standard cell structure of S(2) x S(2), different from the triangulation alluded to in (b). This gives a new proof that Kuhnel's CP(9)(2) triangulates CP(2). It is also shown that CP(10)(2) and (S(2) x S(2))(12) induce the standard piecewise linear structure on CP(2) and S(2) x S(2) respectively.

A Triangulation of CP3 as Symmetric Cube of S-2

The symmetric group acts on the Cartesian product (S (2)) (d) by coordinate permutation, and the quotient space is homeomorphic to the complex projective space a'',P (d) . We used the case d=2 of this fact to construct a 10-vertex triangulation of a'',P (2) earlier. In this paper, we have constructed a 124-vertex simplicial subdivision of the 64-vertex standard cellulation of (S (2))(3), such that the -action on this cellulation naturally extends to an action on . Further, the -action on is ``good'', so that the quotient simplicial complex is a 30-vertex triangulation of a'',P (3). In other words, we have constructed a simplicial realization of the branched covering (S (2))(3)-> a'',P (3).

Spatial memory deficits in maternal iron deficiency paradigms are associated with altered glucocorticoid levels

``The goal of this study was to examine the effect of maternal iron deficiency on the developing hippocampus in order to define a developmental window for this effect, and to see whether iron deficiency causes changes in glucocorticoid levels. The study was carried out using pre-natal, post-natal, and pre + post-natal iron deficiency paradigm. Iron deficient pregnant dams and their pups displayed elevated corticosterone which, in turn, differentially affected glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression in the CA1 and the dentate gyrus. Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) was reduced in the hippocampi of pups following elevated corticosterone levels. Reduced neurogenesis at P7 was seen in pups born to iron deficient mothers, and these pups had reduced numbers of hippocampal pyramidal and granule cells as adults. Hippocampal subdivision volumes also were altered. The structural and molecular defects in the pups were correlated with radial arm maze performance; reference memory function was especially affected. Pups from dams that were iron deficient throughout pregnancy and lactation displayed the complete spectrum of defects, while pups from dams that were iron deficient only during pregnancy or during lactation displayed subsets of defects. These findings show that maternal iron deficiency is associated with altered levels of corticosterone and GR expression, and with spatial memory deficits in their pups.'' (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of dynamic behaviour of recession curves

Since Brutsaert and Neiber (1977), recession curves are widely used to analyse subsurface systems of river basins by expressing -dQ/dt as a function of Q, which typically take a power law form: -dQ/dt=kQ, where Q is the discharge at a basin outlet at time t. Traditionally recession flows are modelled by single reservoir models that assume a unique relationship between -dQ/dt and Q for a basin. However, recent observations indicate that -dQ/dt-Q relationship of a basin varies greatly across recession events, indicating the limitation of such models. In this study, the dynamic relationship between -dQ/dt and Q of a basin is investigated through the geomorphological recession flow model which models recession flows by considering the temporal evolution of its active drainage network (the part of the stream network of the basin draining water at time t). Two primary factors responsible for the dynamic relationship are identified: (i) degree of aquifer recharge (ii) spatial variation of rainfall. Degree of aquifer recharge, which is likely to be controlled by (effective) rainfall patterns, influences the power law coefficient, k. It is found that k has correlation with past average streamflow, which confirms the notion that dynamic -dQ/dt-Q relationship is caused by the degree of aquifer recharge. Spatial variation of rainfall is found to have control on both the exponent, , and the power law coefficient, k. It is noticed that that even with same and k, recession curves can be different, possibly due to their different (recession) peak values. This may also happen due to spatial variation of rainfall. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

What mainly controls recession flows in river basins?

The ubiquity of the power law relationship between dQ/dt and Q for recession periods (-dQ/dt kQ(alpha); Q being discharge at the basin outlet at time t) clearly hints at the existence of a dominant recession flow process that is common to all real basins. It is commonly assumed that a basin, during recession events, functions as a single phreatic aquifer resting on a impermeable horizontal bed or the Dupuit-Boussinesq (DB) aquifer, and with time different aquifer geometric conditions arise that give different values of alpha and k. The recently proposed alternative model, geomorphological recession flow model, however, suggests that recession flows are controlled primarily by the dynamics of the active drainage network (ADN). In this study we use data for several basins and compare the above two contrasting recession flow models in order to understand which of the above two factors dominates during recession periods in steep basins. Particularly, we do the comparison by selecting three key recession flow properties: (1) power law exponent alpha, (2) dynamic dQ/dt-Q relationship (characterized by k) and (3) recession timescale (time period for which a recession event lasts). Our observations suggest that neither drainage from phreatic aquifers nor evapotranspiration significantly controls recession flows. Results show that the value of a and recession timescale are not modeled well by DB aquifer model. However, the above mentioned three recession curve properties can be captured satisfactorily by considering the dynamics of the ADN as described by geomorphological recession flow model, possibly indicating that the ADN represents not just phreatic aquifers but the organization of various sub-surface storage systems within the basin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupling geomorphology parameters with lithology for micro-level groundwater resource assessment: a case study from semi-arid hard rock terrain in Tamil Nadu, India

The standard procedure of groundwater resource estimation in India till date is based on the specific yield parameters of each rock type (lithology) derived through pumping test analysis. Using the change in groundwater level, specific yield, and area of influence, groundwater storage change could be estimated. However, terrain conditions in the form of geomorphological variations have an important bearing on the net groundwater recharge. In this study, an attempt was made to use both lithology and geomorphology as input variables to estimate the recharge from different sources in each lithology unit influenced by the geomorphic conditions (lith-geom), season wise separately. The study provided a methodological approach for an evaluation of groundwater in a semi-arid hard rock terrain in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India. While characterizing the gneissic rock, it was found that the geomorphologic variations in the gneissic rock due to weathering and deposition behaved differently with respect to aquifer recharge. The three different geomorphic units identified in gneissic rock (pediplain shallow weathered (PPS), pediplain moderate weathered (PPM), and buried pediplain moderate (BPM)) showed a significant variation in recharge conditions among themselves. It was found from the study that Peninsular gneiss gives a net recharge value of 0.13 m/year/unit area when considered as a single unit w.r.t. lithology, whereas the same area considered with lith-geom classes gives recharge values between 0.1 and 0.41 m/year presenting a different assessment. It is also found from this study that the stage of development (SOD) for each lith-geom unit in Peninsular gneiss varies from 168 to 230 %, whereas the SOD is 223 % for the lithology as a single unit.

Efficient simulation and rendering of realistic motion of one-dimensional flexible objects

In gross motion of flexible one-dimensional (1D) objects such as cables, ropes, chains, ribbons and hair, the assumption of constant length is realistic and reasonable. The motion of the object also appears more natural if the motion or disturbance given at one end attenuates along the length of the object. In an earlier work, variational calculus was used to derive natural and length-preserving transformation of planar and spatial curves and implemented for flexible 1D objects discretized with a large number of straight segments. This paper proposes a novel idea to reduce computational effort and enable real-time and realistic simulation of the motion of flexible 1D objects. The key idea is to represent the flexible 1D object as a spline and move the underlying control polygon with much smaller number of segments. To preserve the length of the curve to within a prescribed tolerance as the control polygon is moved, the control polygon is adaptively modified by subdivision and merging. New theoretical results relating the length of the curve and the angle between the adjacent segments of the control polygon are derived for quadratic and cubic splines. Depending on the prescribed tolerance on length error, the theoretical results are used to obtain threshold angles for subdivision and merging. Simulation results for arbitrarily chosen planar and spatial curves whose one end is subjected to generic input motions are provided to illustrate the approach. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microstructure and Evolution of Mechanically-Induced Ultrafine Grain in Surface Layer of Al-Alloy Subjected to USSP

Experiments were conducted to investigate the ultrafine-grained (UFG) microstructures in the surface layer of an aluminum alloy 7075 heavily worked by ultrasonic shot peening. Conventional and high-resolution electron microscopy was performed at various depths of the deformed layer. Results showed that UFG structures were introdued into the surface layer of 62 μm thick. With increasing strain, the various microstructural features, e.g., the dislocation emission source, elongated microbands, dislocation cells, dislocation cell blocks, equiaxed submicro-, and nano-crystal grains etc., were successively produced. The grain subdivision into the subgrains was found to be the main mechanism responsible for grain refinement. The simultaneous evolution of high boundary misorientations was ascribed to the subgrain boundary rotation for accommodating further strains. Formed microstructures were highly nonequilibratory.  2002 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strain-Induced Grain Refinement of Cobalt During Surface Mechanical Attrition Treatment

The microstructural evolution during surface mechanical attrition treatment of cobalt (a mixture of hexagonal close packed (hep) and face-centered cubic (fcc) phases) was investigated. In order to reveal the mechanism of grain refinement and strain accommodation. The microstructure was systematically characterized by both cross-sectional and planar-view transmission electron microscopy. In the hcp phase, the process of grain refinement. Accompanied by an increase in strain imposed in the surface layer. Involved: (1) the onset of 110 111 deformation twinning, (2) the operation of (1 120) 110 1 0} prismatic and (1 120) (000 1) basal slip, leading to the formation of low-angle dislocation boundaries, and (3) the successive subdivision of grains to a finer and finer scale. Ressulting in the formation of highly misoriented nanocrystalline grains. Moreover. The formation of nanocrystalliies at the grain boundary and triple junction was also observed to occur concurrently with straining. By contrast. The fec phase accommodated strain in a sequence as follows: (1) slip of dislocations by forming intersecting planar arrays of dislocations, (2) {1 1 1} deformation twinning, and (3) the gamma(fcc) --> epsilon(hcp) martensitic phase transformation. The mechanism of grain refinement was interpreted in terms of the structural subdivision of grains together with dynamic recrystallization occurring in the hep phase and the gamma --> E: martensitic transformation in the fcc phase as well.

Nanocrystalline Formation During Mechanical Attrition of Cobalt

The nanocrystalline (nc) formation was studied in cobalt (a mixture of c (hexagonal close packed) and gamma (face-centered cubic) phases) subjected to surface mechanical attrition treatment. Electron microscopy revealed the operation of {10(1) over bar 0}< 11(2) over bar 0 > prismatic and {0001}< 11(2) over bar 0 > basal slip in the E phase, leading to the successive subdivision of grains to nanoscale. In particular, the dislocation splitting into the stacking faults was observed to occur in ultrafine and nc grains. By contrast, the planar dislocation arrays, twins and martensites were evidenced in the gamma phase. The strain-induced gamma ->epsilon martensitic transformation was found to progress continuously in ultrafine and nc grains as the strain increased. The nc formation in the gamma phase was interpreted in terms of the martensitic transformation and twinning.

Case Study: Influence Of Morphological Changes On Flooding In Jingjiang River

The middle reach of the Yangtze River, customarily called the Jingjiang River, together with its diversion channels and Dongting Lake, form a large complicated drainage system. In the last five decades, significant geomorphological changes have occurred in the drainage system, including the shrinkage of diversion channels, contraction of Dongting Lake, changes in the rating curve at the Luoshan station, and cutoffs of the lower Jingjiang River. These changes are believed to be the cause of the occurrence of abnormal floods in the Jingjiang River. Qualitative analyses suggest that the first three factors aggravate the flood situation in the lower Jingjiang River, while the last factor seems beneficial for flood prevention. To quantitatively evaluate these conclusions, a finite-volume numerical model was constructed. A series of numerical simulations were carried out to test the individual and combined effects of the aforementioned four factors, and these simulations showed that high flood stages in the Jingjiang River clearly are related to the geomorphological changes.