Uncertainty, electoral Incentives and political myopia

In this paper, we study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build a framework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectly observable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies with future returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised facts and with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better ...scal discipline in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

The efficiency of direct payments versus tax reductions under uncertainty

This paper analyzes the optimal behavior of farmers in the presence of direct payments and uncertainty. In an empirical analysis for Switzerland, it confirms previously obtained theoretical results and determines the magnitude of the theoretical predicted effects. The results show that direct payments increase agricultural production between 3.7% to 4.8%. Alternatively to direct payments, the production effect of tax reductions is evaluated in order to determine its magnitude. The empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical results of the literature and demonstrates that tax reductions are also distorting, but to a substantially lesser degree if losses are not offset. However, tax reductions, independently whether losses are offset or not, lead to higher government spending than pure direct payments

Quality uncertainty and allocation of decision rights in the European protected designation of origin

The paper considers some issue in the governance of the European Protected Designation of Origin (PDO). The PDO systems are the outcomes of both farmers and consumers expectations and connect the valorisation of the agricultural and rural resources of given territories to the quality of typical products. A critical point in the governance of the PDO systems is represented by the connection between the quality strategies and the uncertainty. The paper argues that the PDO systems can be thought of as strictly coordinated subsystems in which the ex post governance play a critical role in coping with quality uncertainty. The study suggests that the society's inducements given raise to complex organizational systems in which the allocation of decision rights to PDO collective organizations play a major role. The empirical analysis is carried out by examining ten Italian PDO systems in order to identify the decision rights allocated.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

A Tool for optimum design of Waste Water Treatment Plants under uncertainty

L’objectiu principal és presentar un nou prototipus d’eina per al disseny de les plantes de tractament d’aigües residuals utilitzant models mecànics dinàmics quantificant la incertesa

Traiter l'hypertension artérielle: l'incertitude des définitions et des cibles [Managing hypertension: the uncertainty of definitions and targets].

In clinical practice, physicians are confronted with a multitude of definitions and treatment goals for arterial hypertension, depending of the diagnostic method used (e.g. office, home and ambulatory blood pressure measurement) and the underlying disease. The historical background and evidence of these different blood pressure thresholds are discussed in this article, as well as some recent treatment guidelines. Besides, the debate of the "J curve", namely the possible risks associated with an excessive blood pressure reduction, is discussed.

Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented

Robust fault detection using consistency techniques for uncertainty handling

Often practical performance of analytical redundancy for fault detection and diagnosis is decreased by uncertainties prevailing not only in the system model, but also in the measurements. In this paper, the problem of fault detection is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem over continuous domains with a big number of variables and constraints. This problem can be solved using modal interval analysis and consistency techniques. Consistency techniques are then shown to be particularly efficient to check the consistency of the analytical redundancy relations (ARRs), dealing with uncertain measurements and parameters. Through the work presented in this paper, it can be observed that consistency techniques can be used to increase the performance of a robust fault detection tool, which is based on interval arithmetic. The proposed method is illustrated using a nonlinear dynamic model of a hydraulic system

Genotyping faeces reveals facultative kin association on capercaillie's leks

The role that kin selection might play in the evolution of lekking in birds remains controversial. Recent molecular data suggest that males displaying on leks are related. Here we investigated the genetic structure and pattern of relatedness on leks of a declining population of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) using microsatellite genetic markers. Since the species is highly sensitive to disturbance, we adopted a non-invasive method by using faecal samples collected in the field. Based on a dataset of 50 males distributed in 6 sub-populations, we found significant genetic structuring among sub-populations, and a significant pattern of isolation by distance among leks. Estimates of relatedness showed that males displaying on the same lek were related, even when controlling for the effects of genetical differentiation among sub-populations. In addition, the frequency distribution of relatedness values indicated that leks contain a mixture of close kin and unrelated individuals (34 and 66%, respectively). This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that leks often contain kin associations, which might be due to very restricted dispersal of some of the males or to joint dispersal of kin. The results are discussed with respect to their implication for the conservation of endangered populations.

Comparison of Seegene Anyplex II HPV28 with the PGMY-CHUV Assay for Human Papillomavirus Genotyping.

The Anyplex II HPV28 (H28; Seegene) is a new semiquantitative real-time multiplex PCR assay for screening and genotyping 28 human papillomaviruses (HPV) in only 2 reaction wells. H28 was compared to the PGMY-CHUV assay (PG) with 309 archival DNA samples from cervical smears collected over 8 years in our laboratory. H28 and PG were fully concordant at the genotypic level on 228 (73.8%) out of 309 samples: 27 HPV negative and 201 HPV positive. The 201 fully concordant positive samples corresponded to single infections (n = 145) and to multiple infections (2 genotypes, n = 38; 3 to 5 genotypes, n = 18). The remaining 81 samples (26.2%) were either partially concordant (n = 64, 20.7%) or fully discordant (n = 17, 5.5%). While genotype-specific agreement was nearly perfect (κ = 0.877), HPV51 was significantly less well detected by H28 and the converse was observed for HPV40, -42, -54, and -68. Sequencing of PG amplicons confirmed HPV51 discordants and suggested the involvement of a possibly local HPV51 subtype. Mismatches in the PGMY09 primers to HPV68a explained most of the HPV68 discordants, confirming the specificity of H28 toward HPV68. With PG as a reference, the sensitivity and specificity of H28 were 93.4% and 99.0%, respectively. Considering H28 as a reference, the sensitivity and specificity of PG were 83.8% and 99.6%, respectively. H28 is a very sensitive and specific HPV genotyping assay suitable for research and clinical use as an adjunct to a clinically validated test. H28 semiquantitative readout ought to be evaluated for primary cervical cancer screening.

Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.