Point Process Methodology for On-line Spatio-temporal Disease Surveillance

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.

T cell-mediated immunoregulation in the gastrointestinal tract

In the intestinal tract, only a single layer of epithelial cells separates innate and adaptive immune effector cells from a vast amount of antigens. Here, the immune system faces a considerable challenge in tolerating commensal flora and dietary antigens while preventing the dissemination of potential pathogens. Failure to tightly control immune reactions may result in detrimental inflammation. In this respect, 'conventional' regulatory CD4(+) T cells, including naturally occurring and adaptive CD4(+) CD25(+) Foxp3(+) T cells, Th3 and Tr1 cells, have recently been the focus of considerable attention. However, regulatory mechanisms in the intestinal mucosa are highly complex, including adaptations of nonhaematopoietic cells and innate immune cells as well as the presence of unconventional T cells with regulatory properties such as resident TCRgammadelta or TCRalphabeta CD8(+) intraepithelial lymphocytes. This review aims to summarize the currently available knowledge on conventional and unconventional regulatory T cell subsets (Tregs), with special emphasis on clinical data and the potential role or malfunctioning of Tregs in four major human gastrointestinal diseases, i.e. inflammatory bowel diseases, coeliac disease, food allergy and colorectal cancer. We conclude that the clinical data confirms some but not all of the findings derived from experimental animal models.

Functional heartburn has more in common with functional dyspepsia than with non-erosive reflux disease

INTRODUCTION: Functional dyspepsia and non-erosive reflux disease (NERD) are prevalent gastrointestinal conditions with accumulating evidence regarding an overlap between the two. Still, patients with NERD represent a very heterogeneous group and limited data on dyspeptic symptoms in various subgroups of NERD are available. AIM: To evaluate the prevalence of dyspeptic symptoms in patients with NERD subclassified by using 24 h impedance-pH monitoring (MII-pH). METHODS: Patients with typical reflux symptoms and normal endoscopy underwent impedance-pH monitoring off proton pump inhibitor treatment. Oesophageal acid exposure time (AET), type of acid and non-acid reflux episodes, and symptom association probability (SAP) were calculated. A validated dyspepsia questionnaire was used to quantify dyspeptic symptoms prior to reflux monitoring. RESULTS: Of 200 patients with NERD (105 female; median age, 48 years), 81 (41%) had an abnormal oesophageal AET (NERD pH-POS), 65 (32%) had normal oesophageal AET and positive SAP for acid and/or non-acid reflux (hypersensitive oesophagus), and 54 (27%) had normal oesophageal AET and negative SAP (functional heartburn). Patients with functional heartburn had more frequent (p<0.01) postprandial fullness, bloating, early satiety and nausea compared to patients with NERD pH-POS and hypersensitive oesophagus. CONCLUSION: The increased prevalence of dyspeptic symptoms in patients with functional heartburn reinforces the concept that functional gastrointestinal disorders extend beyond the boundaries suggested by the anatomical location of symptoms. This should be regarded as a further argument to test patients with symptoms of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in order to separate patients with functional heartburn from patients with NERD in whom symptoms are associated with gastro-oesophageal reflux.

Halitosis and tongue coating in patients with erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease versus nonerosive gastroesophageal reflux disease

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to investigate whether patients with diagnosed erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease (ERD) have an increased probability of halitosis and tongue coating compared to patients with nonerosive gastroesophageal reflux disease (NERD). MATERIALS AND METHODS Sixty-six patients (33 males and 33 females) were recruited for the study and received an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. The presence of ERD (n = 31) and NERD (n = 35) was classified based on the Los Angeles classification for erosive changes in the esophagus. Additionally, the patients filled in a questionnaire regarding their subjective assessment of halitosis, and an organoleptic assessment of halitosis, a measurement of oral volatile sulfur compounds (VSC) with the Halimeter, and a tongue coating index were performed. ERD and NERD subjects were compared with regard to Halitosis-related clinical and anamnestic findings. RESULTS No statistically significant difference could be found between ERD and NERD patients regarding tongue coating index, organoleptic scores, and VSC values as well as self-perceived bad taste, tongue coating, and bad breath. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that halitosis is not typically associated with erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease and the presence of esophageal mucosal damage (ERD patients). CLINICAL RELEVANCE The data of this investigation support the findings of interdisciplinary bad breath clinics that gastroesophageal reflux disease is not a leading cause for halitosis.

High altitude journeys and flights are associated with an increased risk of flares in inflammatory bowel disease patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Hypoxia can induce inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract. However, the impact of hypoxia on the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate whether flights and/or journeys to regions lying at an altitude of >2000m above the sea level are associated with flare-ups within 4weeks of the trip. METHODS IBD patients with at least one flare-up during a 12-month observation period were compared to a group of patients in remission. Both groups completed a questionnaire. RESULTS A total of 103 IBD patients were included (43 with Crohn's disease (CD): mean age 39.3±14.6years; 60 with ulcerative colitis (UC): mean age 40.4±15.1years). Fifty-two patients with flare-ups were matched to 51 patients in remission. IBD patients experiencing flare-ups had more frequently undertaken flights and/or journeys to regions >2000m above sea level within four weeks of the flare-up when compared to patients in remission (21/52 [40.4%] vs. 8/51 [15.7%], p=0.005). CONCLUSIONS Journeys to high altitude regions and/or flights are a risk factor for IBD flare-ups occurring within 4weeks of travel.

What are the implications of changing treatment delivery models for patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a discussion paper.

An integrated model of care has been used effectively to manage chronic diseases; however, there is limited, yet encouraging evidence on its introduction in the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a chronic gastrointestinal condition. Here, the rationale for and implications of introducing an integrated model of care for patients with IBD are discussed, with a particular focus on psychology input, patient-centred care, efficiency as perceived by patients and doctors, financial implications and the possible means of model introduction. This is a discussion paper on the integrated model of care for IBD against a background of what has been learned from an integrated model of care established in other chronic conditions. Although limited, the emerging data on an integrated model of care in IBD are encouraging with respect to patient outcomes and savings in healthcare costs. In other conditions, the model has been well received by both patients and practitioners, although the loss of autonomy by doctors is listed among its drawbacks. The cost-effectiveness data are now sufficiently convincing to recommend the model's acceptance in principle. The model should be promoted at the policy level rather than by individual practitioners to facilitate equal access for patients with IBD on a larger scale than currently.

MODELING SPORADIC TUMOR FORMATION DRIVEN BY TELOMERE DYSFUNCTION IN THE GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT

Colorectal cancer is a complex disease that is thought to arise when cells accumulate mutations that allow for uncontrolled growth. There are several recognized mechanisms for generating such mutations in sporadic colon cancer; one of which is chromosomal instability (CIN). One hypothesized driver of CIN in cancer is the improper repair of dysfunctional telomeres. Telomeres comprise the linear ends of chromosomes and play a dual role in cancer. Its length is maintained by the ribonucleoprotein, telomerase, which is not a normally expressed in somatic cells and as cells divide, telomeres continuously shorten. Critically shortened telomeres are considered dysfunctional as they are recognized as sites of DNA damage and cells respond by entering into replicative senescence or apoptosis, a process that is p53-dependent and the mechanism for telomere-induced tumor suppression. Loss of this checkpoint and improper repair of dysfunctional telomeres can initiate a cycle of fusion, bridge and breakage that can lead to chromosomal changes and genomic instability, a process that can lead to transformation of normal cells to cancer cells. Mouse models of telomere dysfunction are currently based on knocking out the telomerase protein or RNA component; however, the naturally long telomeres of mice require multiple generational crosses of telomerase null mice to achieve critically short telomeres. Shelterin is a complex of six core proteins that bind to telomeres specifically. Pot1a is a highly conserved member of this complex that specifically binds to the telomeric single-stranded 3’ G-rich overhang. Previous work in our lab has shown that Pot1a is essential for chromosomal end protection as deletion of Pot1a in murine embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) leads to open telomere ends that initiate a DNA damage response mediated by ATR, resulting in p53-dependent cellular senescence. Loss of Pot1a in the background of p53 deficiency results in increased aberrant homologous recombination at telomeres and elevated genomic instability, which allows Pot1a-/-, p53-/- MEFs to form tumors when injected into SCID mice. These phenotypes are similar to those seen in cells with critically shortened telomeres. In this work, we created a mouse model of telomere ysfunction in the gastrointestinal tract through the conditional deletion of Pot1a that recapitulates the microscopic features seen in severe telomere attrition. Combined intestinal loss of Pot1a and p53 lead to formation of invasive adenocarcinomas in the small and large intestines. The tumors formed with long latency, low multiplicity and had complex genomes due to chromosomal instability, features similar to those seen in sporadic human colorectal cancers. Taken together, we have developed a novel mouse model of intestinal tumorigenesis based on genomic instability driven by telomere dysfunction.

Patient Characteristics and Outcomes of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor Patients Undergoing Imatinib Plasma Level Testing

Although gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is effectively treated with imatinib, there are a number of clinical challenges in the optimal treatment of these patients. The plasma steady-state trough level of imatinib has been proposed to correlate with clinical outcome. Plasma imatinib level may be affected by a number of patient characteristics. Additionally, the ideal plasma trough concentration of imatinib is likely to vary based on the KIT genotype (genotype determines imatinib binding affinity) of the individual patient. Patients’ genotype or plasma imatinib level may influence the type and duration of response that is appreciable by clinical evaluation. The objectives of this study were to determine effects of genotype on the type of response appreciable by current imaging criteria, to determine the distribution of plasma imatinib levels in patients with GIST, to determine factors that correlate with plasma imatinib level, to determine the incremental effects of imatinib dose escalation; and to explore the median plasma levels and outcomes of patients with various KIT mutations. We therefore obtained KIT mutation information and analyzed CT response for size and density measurement of GISTs at baseline and within the first four moths of imatinib treatment. In 126 patients with metastatic/unresectable disease, the KIT genotype of patients’ tumor was significantly associated with unique response characteristics measurable by CT. Furthermore, hepatic and peritoneal metastases differed in their response characteristics. A subgroup of patients with KIT exon 9 mutation, who received higher doses of imatinib and experienced higher trough imatinib levels, experienced improved progression-free survival similar to that of KIT exon 11 patients. Therefore, we have found that imatinib plasma levels were higher in patients with elevated Aspartate amino transferase, were women, were older, or were being treated concomitantly with CYP450 substrate drugs. As expected, CYP450 inducers correlated with a lower plasma imatinib levels in GIST patients. Renal metabolism of imatinib accounts for <10%, so it was not included in the analysis but may affect covariates. Interestingly, there was a trend for low imatinib levels and inferior progression-free survival in patients who had undergone complete gastrectomy. Patients with KIT exon 9 mutation in our cohort received higher imatinib doses, experienced higher trough imatinib levels, and experienced a PFS similar to that of KIT exon 11 patients. In conclusion, imatinib plasma levels are influenced by a number of patient characteristics. The optimal imatinib plasma level for individual patients is not known but is an area of intense investigation. Our study confirms patients with KIT exon 9 mutations benefit from high-dose imatinib and higher trough imatinib levels.

Genetic and microbial factors modulating the ubiquitin proteasome system in inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVE: Altered microbiota composition, changes in immune responses and impaired intestinal barrier functions are observed in IBD. Most of these features are controlled by proteases and their inhibitors to maintain gut homeostasis. Unrestrained or excessive proteolysis can lead to pathological gastrointestinal conditions. The aim was to validate the identified protease IBD candidates from a previously performed systematic review through a genetic association study and functional follow-up. DESIGN: We performed a genetic association study in a large multicentre cohort of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and UC from five European IBD referral centres in a total of 2320 CD patients, 2112 UC patients and 1796 healthy controls. Subsequently, we did an extensive functional assessment of the candidate genes to explore their causality in IBD pathogenesis. RESULTS: Ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in four genes were significantly associated with CD: CYLD, USP40, APEH and USP3. CYLD was the most significant gene with the intronically located rs12324931 the strongest associated SNP (pFDR=1.74e-17, OR=2.24 (1.83 to 2.74)). Five SNPs in four genes were significantly associated with UC: USP40, APEH, DAG1 and USP3. CYLD, as well as some of the other associated genes, is part of the ubiquitin proteasome system (UPS). We therefore determined if the IBD-associated adherent-invasive Escherichia coli (AIEC) can modulate the UPS functioning. Infection of intestinal epithelial cells with the AIEC LF82 reference strain modulated the UPS turnover by reducing poly-ubiquitin conjugate accumulation, increasing 26S proteasome activities and decreasing protein levels of the NF-κB regulator CYLD. This resulted in IκB-α degradation and NF-κB activation. This activity was very important for the pathogenicity of AIEC since decreased CYLD resulted in increased ability of AIEC LF82 to replicate intracellularly. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal the UPS, and CYLD specifically, as an important contributor to IBD pathogenesis, which is favoured by both genetic and microbial factors.

Efficacy and Safety of Natalizumab in Crohn’s Disease Patients Treated at 6 Boston Academic Hospitals

BACKGROUND: Despite trials demonstrating its efficacy, many physicians harbor concerns regarding the use of natalizumab in the treatment of patients with refractory Crohn's disease (CD). The purpose of this study was to perform a descriptive analysis of a series of CD patients not currently enrolled in a clinical trial. METHODS: A retrospective case review of patients treated with natalizumab at 6 sites in Massachusetts: Boston Medical Center, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Lahey Clinic, Massachusetts General Hospital, and UMass Medical Center. RESULTS: Data on 69 CD patients on natalizumab were collected. At the start of treatment, patients' disease duration was 12 years. A high proportion of patients were women (68%), presented with perianal disease (65%) and upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (14%). Prior nonbiologic therapies were steroids (96%), thiopurines (94%), antibiotics (74%), methotrexate (58%), and at least two anti-tumor necrosis factor agent failures (81%). Sixty-nine percent (44 of 64 patients) with available medical evaluation had a partial or complete clinical response. Loss of response was 13% after an average of 1 year of treatment. Adverse events were infusion reactions, headaches, fever, and infections. No case of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: In our clinical experience outside the context of a clinical trial, natalizumab is largely reserved for CD patients with extensive ileocolonic disease who have failed conventional immunosuppressants and of at least 2 anti-tumor necrosis factor agents. This drug is, however, well tolerated and offers significant clinical improvement for more than a year in one-third of these difficult-to-treat CD patients.

Systemic levels of the anti-inflammatory decoy receptor soluble RAGE (receptor for advanced glycation end products) are decreased in dogs with inflammatory bowel disease.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a common condition in dogs, and a dysregulated innate immunity is believed to play a major role in its pathogenesis. S100A12 is an endogenous damage-associated molecular pattern molecule, which is involved in phagocyte activation and is increased in serum/fecal samples from dogs with IBD. S100A12 binds to the receptor of advanced glycation end products (RAGE), a pattern-recognition receptor, and results of studies in human patients with IBD and other conditions suggest a role of RAGE in chronic inflammation. Soluble RAGE (sRAGE), a decoy receptor for inflammatory proteins (e.g., S100A12) that appears to function as an anti-inflammatory molecule, was shown to be decreased in human IBD patients. This study aimed to evaluate serum sRAGE and serum/fecal S100A12 concentrations in dogs with IBD. Serum and fecal samples were collected from 20 dogs with IBD before and after initiation of medical treatment and from 15 healthy control dogs. Serum sRAGE and serum and fecal S100A12 concentrations were measured by ELISA, and were compared between dogs with IBD and healthy controls, and between dogs with a positive outcome (i.e., clinical remission, n=13) and those that were euthanized (n=6). The relationship of serum sRAGE concentrations with clinical disease activity (using the CIBDAI scoring system), serum and fecal S100A12 concentrations, and histologic disease severity (using a 4-point semi-quantitative grading system) was tested. Serum sRAGE concentrations were significantly lower in dogs with IBD than in healthy controls (p=0.0003), but were not correlated with the severity of histologic lesions (p=0.4241), the CIBDAI score before (p=0.0967) or after treatment (p=0.1067), the serum S100A12 concentration before (p=0.9214) and after treatment (p=0.4411), or with the individual outcome (p=0.4066). Clinical remission and the change in serum sRAGE concentration after treatment were not significantly associated (p=0.5727); however, serum sRAGE concentrations increased only in IBD dogs with complete clinical remission. Also, dogs that were euthanized had significantly higher fecal S100A12 concentrations than dogs that were alive at the end of the study (p=0.0124). This study showed that serum sRAGE concentrations are decreased in dogs diagnosed with IBD compared to healthy dogs, suggesting that sRAGE/RAGE may be involved in the pathogenesis of canine IBD. Lack of correlation between sRAGE and S100A12 concentrations is consistent with sRAGE functioning as a non-specific decoy receptor. Further studies need to evaluate the gastrointestinal mucosal expression of RAGE in healthy and diseased dogs, and also the formation of S100A12-RAGE complexes.

Tumor budding in upper gastrointestinal carcinomas.

The basis of personalized medicine in oncology is the prediction of an individual's risk of relapse and death from disease. The presence of tumor budding (TB) at the tumor-host interface of gastrointestinal cancers has been recognized as a hallmark of unfavorable disease biology. TB is defined as the presence of dedifferentiated cells or small clusters of up to five cells at the tumor invasive front and can be observed in aggressive carcinomas of the esophagus, stomach, pancreas, ampulla, colon, and rectum. Presence of TB reproducibly correlates with advanced tumor stage, frequent lymphovascular invasion, nodal, and distant metastasis. The UICC has officially recognized TB as additional independent prognostic factor in cancers of the colon and rectum. Recent studies have also characterized TB as a promising prognostic indicator for clinical management of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma of the gastro-esophageal junction, and gastric adenocarcinoma. However, several important issues have to be addressed for application in daily diagnostic practice: (1) validation of prognostic scoring systems for TB in large, multi-center studies, (2) consensus on the optimal assessment method, and (3) inter-observer reproducibility. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of TB in cancers of the upper gastrointestinal tract including critical appraisal of perspectives for further study.

Molecular mechanisms of response in gastrointestinal stromal tumors treated with imatinib mesylate

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) represent 80% of sarcoma arising from the GI tract. The inciting event in tumor progression is mutation of the kit or, rarely, platelet derived growth factor receptor-α (PDGFR) gene. These mutations encode ligand independent, constitutively active proteins: Kit or PDGFR. ^ These tumors are notoriously chemo and radio resistant. Historically, patients with advanced disease realized a median overall survival of 9 months. However, with modern management of GIST with imatinib mesylate (Novartis), a small molecule inhibitor of the Kit, PDGFR, and Abl tyrosine kinases, patients now realize a median overall survival greater than 30 months. However, almost half of patients present with surgically resectable GIST and the utility of imatinib in this context has not been prospectively studied. Also, therapeutic benefit of imatinib is variable from patient to patient and alternative targeted therapy is emerging as potential alternatives to imatinib. Thus, elucidating prognostic factors for patients with GIST in the imatinib-era is crucial to providing optimal care to each particular patient. Moreover, the exact mechanism of action of imatinib in GIST is not fully understood. Therefore, physicians find difficulty in accurately predicting which patient will benefit from imatinib, how to assess response to therapy, and the time at which to assess response. ^ I have hypothesized that imatinib is tolerable and clinically beneficial in the context of surgery, VEGF expression and kit non-exon 11 genotypes portend poor survival on imatinib therapy, and imatinib's mechanism of action is in part due to anti-vascular effects and inhibition of the Kit/SCF signaling axis of tumor-associated endothelial cells. ^ Results herein demonstrate that imatinib is safe and increases the duration of disease-free survival when combined with surgery. Radiographic and molecular (namely, apoptosis) changes occur within 3 days of imatinib initiation. I illustrate that non-exon 11 mutant genotypes and VEGF are poor prognostic factors for patients treated with imatinib. These findings may allow for patient stratification to emerging therapies rather than imatinib. I show that imatinib has anti-vascular effects via inducing tumor endothelial cell apoptosis perhaps by abrogation of the Kit/SCF signaling axis. ^