Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Pan-Plasmodium band sensitivity for Plasmodium falciparum detection in combination malaria rapid diagnostic tests and implications for clinical management

Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are appropriate for case management, but persistent antigenaemia is a concern for HRP2-detecting RDTs in endemic areas. It has been suggested that pan-pLDH test bands on combination RDTs could be used to distinguish persistent antigenaemia from active Plasmodium falciparum infection, however this assumes all active infections produce positive results on both bands of RDTs, an assertion that has not been demonstrated. Methods: In this study, data generated during the WHO-FIND product testing programme for malaria RDTs was reviewed to investigate the reactivity of individual test bands against P. falciparum in 18 combination RDTs. Each product was tested against multiple wild-type P. falciparum only samples. Antigen levels were measured by quantitative ELISA for HRP2, pLDH and aldolase. Results: When tested against P. falciparum samples at 200 parasites/μL, 92% of RDTs were positive; 57% of these on both the P. falciparum and pan bands, while 43% were positive on the P. falciparum band only. There was a relationship between antigen concentration and band positivity; ≥4 ng/mL of HRP2 produced positive results in more than 95% of P. falciparum bands, while ≥45 ng/mL of pLDH was required for at least 90% of pan bands to be positive. Conclusions: In active P. falciparum infections it is common for combination RDTs to return a positive HRP2 band combined with a negative pan-pLDH band, and when both bands are positive, often the pan band is faint. Thus active infections could be missed if the presence of a HRP2 band in the absence of a pan band is interpreted as being caused solely by persistent antigenaemia.

How does Australian diabetic foot screening rate on an international Stage?

Background From the conservative estimates of registrants with the National Diabetes Supply Scheme, we will be soon passing 1.1 Million Australians affected by all types of diabetes. The diabetes complications of foot ulceration and amputation are costly to all. These costs can be reduced with appropriate prevention strategies, starting with identifying people at risk through primary care diabetic foot screening. However, levels of diabetic foot screening in Australia are difficult to quantify. Methods This presentation reports on foot screening rates as recorded in the academic literature, national health surveys and national database reports. The focus is on type 1 and type 2 diabetes in adults, and not gestational diabetes or children. Literature searches included diabetic foot screening that occurred in the primary care setting for populations over 2000 people from 2002 to 2014. Searches were performed using Medline and CINAHL as well as internet searches of OECD health databases. The primary outcome measure was foot -screening rates as a percentage of adult diabetic population. Results The lack of a national diabetes database and register hampers efforts to analyse diabetic foot screening levels. The most recent and accurate level for Australian population review was in the AUSDIAB (Australian Diabetes and lifestyle survey) from 2004. This survey reported screening in primary care to be as low as 50%. Countries such as the United Kingdom and United States of America report much higher rates of foot screening (67-88%) using national databases and web based initiatives that involve patients and clinicians. Conclusions Australian rates of diabetic foot screening in primary care centres is ambiguous. Uptake of national registers, incentives and web based systems improve levels of diabetic foot assessment which are the first steps to a healthier diabetic population.

Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Foot Function Index to Spanish

Background The purpose of this study was to adapt and validate the Foot Function Index to the Spanish (FFI-Sp) following the guidelines of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Methods A cross-sectional study 80 participants with some foot pathology. A statistical analysis was made, including a correlation study with other questionnaires (the Foot Health Status Questionnaire, EuroQol 5-D, Visual Analogue Pain Scale, and the Short Form SF-12 Health Survey). Data analysis included reliability, construct and criterion-related validity and factor analyses. Results The principal components analysis with varimax rotation produced 3 principal factors that explained 80% of the variance. The confirmatory factor analysis showed an acceptable fit with a comparative fit index of 0.78. The FFI-Sp demonstrated excellent internal consistency on the three subscales: pain 0.95; disability 0.96; and activity limitation 0.69, the subscale that scored lowest. The correlation between the FFI-Sp and the other questionnaires was high to moderate. Conclusions The Spanish version of the Foot Function Index (FFI-Sp) is a tool that is a valid and reliable tool with a very good internal consistency for use in the assessment of pain, disability and limitation of the function of the foot, for use both in clinic and research.

Mirror neurons, the representation of word meaning, and the foot of the third left frontal convolution

Previous neuroimaging research has attempted to demonstrate a preferential involvement of the human mirror neuron system (MNS) in the comprehension of effector-related action word (verb) meanings. These studies have assumed that Broca's area (or Brodmann's area 44) is the homologue of a monkey premotor area (F5) containing mouth and hand mirror neurons, and that action word meanings are shared with the mirror system due to a proposed link between speech and gestural communication. In an fMRI experiment, we investigated whether Broca's area shows mirror activity solely for effectors implicated in the MNS. Next, we examined the responses of empirically determined mirror areas during a language perception task comprising effector-specific action words, unrelated words and nonwords. We found overlapping activity for observation and execution of actions with all effectors studied, i.e., including the foot, despite there being no evidence of foot mirror neurons in the monkey or human brain. These "mirror" areas showed equivalent responses for action words, unrelated words and nonwords, with all of these stimuli showing increased responses relative to visual character strings. Our results support alternative explanations attributing mirror activity in Broca's area to covert verbalisation or hierarchical linearisation, and provide no evidence that the MNS makes a preferential contribution to comprehending action word meanings.

Prevalence and risk factors for foot and ankle musculoskeletal disorders experienced by nurses

Background Nurses are at high risk of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Although the prevalence of MSDs of the lower back, upper limbs, neck and shoulders have been reported previously in nursing, few studies have evaluated MSDs of the foot and ankle. This study evaluated the prevalence of foot and ankle MSDs in nurses and their relation to individual and workplace risk factors. Methods A self-administered survey incorporating the Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ) was distributed, over a nine-week period, to all eligible nurses (n = 416) working in a paediatric hospital in Brisbane, Australia. The prevalence of MSDs for each of the NMQ body regions was determined. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationships between activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs and risk factors related to the individual (age, body mass index, number of existing foot conditions, smoking history, general physical health [SF36 Physical Component Scale], footwear features) or the workplace (level of nursing position, work location, average hours worked, hours worked in previous week, time since last break from work). Results A 73% response rate was achieved with 304 nurses completing surveys, of whom 276 were females (91%). Mean age of the nurses was 37 years (±10), younger than the state average of 43 years. Foot/ankle MSDs were the most prevalent conditions experienced by nurses during the preceding seven days (43.8%, 95% CI 38.2-49.4%), the second most prevalent MSDs to impair physical activity (16.7%, 95% CI 13.0-21.3%), and the third most prevalent MSD, after lower-back and neck problems, during the preceding 12 months (55.3%, 95% CI 49.6-60.7%). Of the nurse and work characteristics investigated, obesity, poor general physical health, existing foot conditions and working in the intensive care unit emerged as statistically significant (p < 0.05) independent risk factors for activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs. Conclusions Foot/ankle MSDs are common in paediatric hospital nurses and resulted in physical activity limitations in one out of every six nurses. We recommend targeted education programs regarding the prevention, self-management and treatment strategies for foot/ankle MSDs. Further research is needed into the impact of work location and extended shift durations on foot/ankle MSDs.

Associations between extreme precipitation and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in urban and rural areas in Hefei, China

Background Understanding the relationship between extreme weather events and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is important in the context of climate change. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, and further, to explore whether the association varied across urban and rural areas. Methods Daily data on HFMD counts among children aged 0–14 years from 2010 January 1st to 2012 December 31st were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation during the same period were supplied by Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. We used a Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the association between extreme precipitation (≥ 90th precipitation) and childhood HFMD, controlling for mean temperature, humidity, day of week, and long-term trend. Results There was a statistically significant association between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD. The effect of extreme precipitation on childhood HFMD was the greatest at six days lag, with a 5.12% (95% confident interval: 2.7–7.57%) increase of childhood HFMD for an extreme precipitation event versus no precipitation. Notably, urban children and children aged 0–4 years were particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme precipitation. Conclusions Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation may increase the incidence of childhood HFMD in Hefei, highlighting the importance of protecting children from forthcoming extreme precipitation, particularly for those who are young and from urban areas.

A compliant, banded outflow cannula for decreased afterload sensitivity of rotary right ventricular assist devices

Biventricular support with dual rotary ventricular assist devices (VADs) has been implemented clinically with restriction of the right VAD (RVAD) outflow cannula to artificially increase afterload and, therefore, operate within recommended design speed ranges. However, the low preload and high afterload sensitivity of these devices increase the susceptibility of suction events. Active control systems are prone to sensor drift or inaccurate inferred (sensor-less) data, therefore an alternative solution may be of benefit. This study presents the in vitro evaluation of a compliant outflow cannula designed to passively decrease the afterload sensitivity of rotary RVADs and minimize left-sided suction events. A one-way fluid-structure interaction model was initially used to produce a design with suitable flow dynamics and radial deformation. The resultant geometry was cast with different initial cross-sectional restrictions and concentrations of a softening diluent before evaluation in a mock circulation loop. Pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) was increased from 50 dyne s/cm5 until left-sided suction events occurred with each compliant cannula and a rigid, 4.5 mm diameter outflow cannula for comparison. Early suction events (PVR ∼ 300 dyne s/cm5) were observed with the rigid outflow cannula. Addition of the compliant section with an initial 3 mm diameter restriction and 10% diluent expanded the outflow restriction as PVR increased, thus increasing RVAD flow rate and preventing left-sided suction events at PVR levels beyond 1000 dyne s/cm5. Therefore, the compliant, restricted outflow cannula provided a passive control system to assist in the prevention of suction events with rotary biventricular support while maintaining pump speeds within normal ranges of operation.

Plantar pressure in diabetic peripheral neuropathy patients with active foot ulceration, previous ulceration and no history of ulceration: A meta-analysis of observational studies

Aims Elevated dynamic plantar pressures are a consistent finding in diabetes patients with peripheral neuropathy with implications for plantar foot ulceration. This meta-analysis aimed to compare the plantar pressures of diabetes patients that had peripheral neuropathy and those with neuropathy with active or previous foot ulcers. Methods Published articles were identified from Medline via OVID, CINAHL, SCOPUS, INFORMIT, Cochrane Central EMBASE via OVID and Web of Science via ISI Web of Knowledge bibliographic databases. Observational studies reporting barefoot dynamic plantar pressure in adults with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, where at least one group had a history of plantar foot ulcers were included. Interventional studies, shod plantar pressure studies and studies not published in English were excluded. Overall mean peak plantar pressure (MPP) and pressure time integral (PTI) were primary outcomes. The six secondary outcomes were MPP and PTI at the rear foot, mid foot and fore foot. The protocol of the meta-analysis was published with PROPSERO, (registration number CRD42013004310). Results Eight observational studies were included. Overall MPP and PTI were greater in diabetic peripheral neuropathy patients with foot ulceration compared to those without ulceration (standardised mean difference 0.551, 95% CI 0.290–0.811, p<0.001; and 0.762, 95% CI 0.303–1.221, p = 0.001, respectively). Sub-group analyses demonstrated no significant difference in MPP for those with neuropathy with active ulceration compared to those without ulcers. A significant difference in MPP was found for those with neuropathy with a past history of ulceration compared to those without ulcers; (0.467, 95% CI 0.181– 0.753, p = 0.001). Statistical heterogeneity between studies was moderate. Conclusions Plantar pressures appear to be significantly higher in patients with diabetic peripheral neuropathy with a history of foot ulceration compared to those with diabetic neuropathy without a history of ulceration. More homogenous data is needed to confirm these findings.

Characteristics of microbial drug resistance and its correlates in chronic diabetic foot ulcer infections

While virulence factors and the biofilm-forming capabilities of microbes are the key regulators of the wound healing process, the host immune response may also contribute in the events following wound closure or exacerbation of non-closure. We examined samples from diabetic and non-diabetic foot ulcers/wounds for microbial association and tested the microbes for their antibiotic susceptibility and ability to produce biofilms. A total of 1074 bacterial strains were obtained with staphylococci, Pseudomonas, Citrobacter and enterococci as major colonizers in diabetic samples. Though non-diabetic samples had a similar assemblage, the frequency of occurrence of different groups of bacteria was different. Gram-negative bacteria were found to be more prevalent in the diabetic wound environment while Gram-positive bacteria were predominant in non-diabetic ulcers. A higher frequency of monomicrobial infection was observed in samples from non-diabetic individuals when compared to samples from diabetic patients. The prevalence of different groups of bacteria varied when the samples were stratified according to age and sex of the individuals. Several multidrug-resistant strains were observed among the samples tested and most of these strains produced moderate to high levels of biofilms. The weakened immune response in diabetic individuals and synergism among pathogenic micro-organisms may be the critical factors that determine the delicate balance of the wound healing process.

Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides

This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Errors in the knee joint forces and moments during gait depending on the foot and knee prosthetic components

Background Previously studies showed that inverse dynamics based on motion analysis and force-plate is inaccurate compared to direct measurements for individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA). Indeed, direct measurements can appropriately take into account the absorption at the prosthetic foot and the resistance at the prosthetic knee. [1-3] However, these studies involved only a passive prosthetic knee. Aim The objective of the present study was to investigate if different types of prosthetic feet and knees can exhibit different levels of error in the knee joint forces and moments. Method Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 9 TFAs (7 males and 2 females, 47±9 years old, 1.76±0.1 m 79±17 kg) with a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden), force plates (Kitsler, Winterthur, Switzerland) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee [1-17]. TFAs were all fitted with an osseointegrated implant system. The prostheses included different type of foot (N=5) and knee (N=3) components. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between direct measurements and the knee joint forces and moments estimated by inverse dynamics were computed for stance and swing phases of gait and expressed as a percentage of the measured amplitudes. A one-way Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA was performed (Statgraphics, Levallois-Perret, France) to analyse the effects of the prosthetic components on the RMSEs. Cross-effects and post-hoc tests were not analysed in this study. Results A significant effect (*) was found for the type of prosthetic foot on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.016), lateral-medial force during stance (p=0.009), adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.038), internal-external rotation moment during stance (p=0.014) and during swing (p=0.006), and flexion-extension moment during stance (p = 0.035). A significant effect (#) was found for the type of prosthetic knee on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.018) and adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.035). Discussion & Conclusion The RMSEs were larger during swing than during stance. It is because the errors on accelerations (as derived from motion analysis) become substantial with respect to the external loads. Thus, inverse dynamics during swing should be analysed with caution because the mean RMSEs are close to 50%. Conversely, there were fewer effects of the prosthetic components on RMSE during swing than during stance and, accordingly, fewer effects due to knees than feet. Thus, inverse dynamics during stance should be used with caution for comparison of different prosthetic components.

Nutritional status of children with cystic fibrosis measured by total body potassium as a marker of body cell mass: Lack of sensitivity of anthropometric measures

Objective: To investigate measures aimed at defining the nutritional status of cystic fibrosis (CF) populations, this study compared standard anthropometric measurements and total body potassium (TBK) as indicators of malnutrition. Methods: Height, weight, and TBK measurements of 226 children with CF from Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, were analyzed. Z scores for height for age, weight for age, and weight for height were analyzed by means of the National Centre for Health Statistics reference. TBK was measured by means of whole body counting and compared with predicted TBK for age. Two criteria were evaluated with respect to malnutrition: (1) a z score < -2.0 and (2) a TBK for age <80% of predicted. Results: Males and females with CF had lower mean height-for-age and weight-for-age z scores than the National Centre for Health Statistics reference (P < .01), but mean weight-for-height z score was not significantly different. There were no significant gender differences. According to anthropometry, only 7.5% of this population were underweight and 7.6% were stunted. However, with TBK as an indicator of nutritional status, 29.9% of males and 22.0% of females were malnourished. Conclusion: There are large differences in the percentage of patients with CF identified as malnourished depending on whether anthropometry or body composition data are used as the nutritional indicator. At an individual level, weight-based indicators are not sensitive indicators of suboptimal nutritional status in CF, significantly underestimating the extent of malnutrition. Current recommendations in which anthropometry is used as the indicator of malnutrition in CF should be revised.

Enhancement of nonvolatile polarization and pyroelectric sensitivity in lithium tantalate (LT)/poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) nanocomposite

We report the ferroelectric and pyroelectric properties of the composite films of lithium tantalate (LT) nanoparticle in poly(vinylidene fluoride) PVDF matrix at different volume fractions of LT (f(LT) = 0.047, 0.09 and 0.17). For an applied electric field of 150 kV cm(-1) the nonvolatile polarization of the composite was observed to increase from 0.014 mu C cm(-2) at f(LT) = 0 to 2.06 mu C cm(-2) at f(LT) = 0.17. For f(LT) = 0.17, the composite films exhibit a saturated ferroelectric hysteresis loop with a remanent polarization (2P(r) = 4.13 mu C cm(-2)). Compared with pure poled PVDF the composite films also showed a factor of about five enhancement in the pyroelectric coefficient at f(LT) = 0.17. When used in energy detection mode the pyroelectric voltage sensitivity of the composite films was found to increase from 3.93 to 18.5 VJ(-1) with an increase in f(LT) from 0.0 to 0.17.

Targeting Antiapoptotic Genes Upregulated by Androgen Withdrawal Using Antisense Oligodeoxynucleotides to Enhance Androgen-and Chemo-Sensitivity in Prostate Cancer

Androgen withdrawal is the only effective form of systemic therapy for men with advanced disease, producing symptomatic and/or objective response in 80% of patients. Unfortunately, androgen independent (AI) progression and death occurs within a few years in the majority of these cases (6). Prostate cancer is highly chemoresistant, with objective response rates of 10% and no demonstrated survival benefit (28). Hormone refractory prostate cancer (HRPC) is therefore the main obstacle to improving the survival and quality of life in patients with advanced disease, and novel therapeutic strategies that target the molecular basis of androgen and chemoresistance are required.