Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

T cell receptor-ligand interactions: a conformational preequilibrium or an induced fit.

Kinetic parameters of T cell receptor (TCR) interactions with its ligand have been proposed to control T cell activation. Analysis of kinetic data obtained has so far produced conflicting insights; here, we offer a consideration of this problem. As a model system, association and dissociation of a soluble TCR (sT1) and its specific ligand, an azidobenzoic acid derivative of the peptide SYIPSAEK-(ABA)I (residues 252-260 from Plasmodium berghei circumsporozoite protein), bound to class I MHC H-2K(d)-encoded molecule (MHCp) were studied by surface plasmon resonance. The association time courses exhibited biphasic patterns. The fast and dominant phase was assigned to ligand association with the major fraction of TCR molecules, whereas the slow component was attributed to the presence of traces of TCR dimers. The association rate constant derived for the fast phase, assuming a reversible, single-step reaction mechanism, was relatively slow and markedly temperature-dependent, decreasing from 7.0 x 10(3) at 25 degrees C to 1.8 x 10(2) M(-1).s(-1) at 4 degrees C. Hence, it is suggested that these observed slow rate constants are the result of unresolved elementary steps of the process. Indeed, our analysis of the kinetic data shows that the time courses of TCR-MHCp interaction fit well to two different, yet closely related mechanisms, where an induced fit or a preequilibrium of two unbound TCR conformers are operational. These mechanisms may provide a rationale for the reported conformational flexibility of the TCR and its unusual ligand recognition properties, which combine high specificity with considerable crossreactivity.

Testing differentiation in diploid populations.

We examine the power of different exact tests of differentiation for diploid populations. Since there is not necessarily random mating within populations, the appropriate hypothesis to construct exact tests is that of independent sampling of genotypes. There are two categories of tests, FST-estimator tests and goodness of fit tests. In this latter category, we distinguish "allelic statistics", which account for the nature of alleles within genotypes, from "genotypic statistics" that do not. We show that the power of FST-estimator tests and of allelic goodness of fit tests are similar when sampling is balanced, and higher than the power of genotypic goodness of fit tests. When sampling is unbalanced, the most powerful tests are shown to belong to the allelic goodness of fit group.

Evidence for adaptive radiation from a phylogenetic study of plant defenses.

One signature of adaptive radiation is a high level of trait change early during the diversification process and a plateau toward the end of the radiation. Although the study of the tempo of evolution has historically been the domain of paleontologists, recently developed phylogenetic tools allow for the rigorous examination of trait evolution in a tremendous diversity of organisms. Enemy-driven adaptive radiation was a key prediction of Ehrlich and Raven's coevolutionary hypothesis [Ehrlich PR, Raven PH (1964) Evolution 18:586-608], yet has remained largely untested. Here we examine patterns of trait evolution in 51 North American milkweed species (Asclepias), using maximum likelihood methods. We study 7 traits of the milkweeds, ranging from seed size and foliar physiological traits to defense traits (cardenolides, latex, and trichomes) previously shown to impact herbivores, including the monarch butterfly. We compare the fit of simple random-walk models of trait evolution to models that incorporate stabilizing selection (Ornstein-Ulenbeck process), as well as time-varying rates of trait evolution. Early bursts of trait evolution were implicated for 2 traits, while stabilizing selection was implicated for several others. We further modeled the relationship between trait change and species diversification while allowing rates of trait evolution to vary during the radiation. Species-rich lineages underwent a proportionately greater decline in latex and cardenolides relative to species-poor lineages, and the rate of trait change was most rapid early in the radiation. An interpretation of this result is that reduced investment in defensive traits accelerated diversification, and disproportionately so, early in the adaptive radiation of milkweeds.

Phylogenetic position of Fit insect toxin producing pseudomonads

Fit produced by Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 is a novel insect toxin in root colonizing pseudomonads, of which a homologue is described in Photorhabdus species.However, occurrence and abundance of insect pathogenicity in plant-associated pseudomonads is still unclear. An extensive screening outside the P. fluorescens complex identified strains of Pseudomonas chlororaphis as further Fit toxin producing candidates. Sequences of five different P. chlororaphis strains generated in this study were used to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the Fit toxin gene and to analyse its mode of evolution. We found that P. chlororaphis is closely associated with a small subgroup of 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol and pyoluteorin- producing pseudomonads, both when analyzing four housekeeping genes and the nucleotide sequences for the Fit toxin gene. Additionally, we identified purifying selection to be the predominant mode of Fit toxin evolution.

A case of acute retinal pigment epithelitis: spectral domain optical coherence tomography time course and physiopathologic hypothesis.

PURPOSE: To report the time course of retinal morphologic changes in a patient with acute retinal pigment epithelitis (ARPE) using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). METHODS: A 30-year old man was referred for blurred vision of his right eye after five days that appeared suddenly 15 days after recovery from a flu-like syndrome. SD-OCT was performed immediately, followed by fluorescein and infracyanine angiography at eight days and then at three weeks. RESULTS: At presentation, a bubble of sub-macular deposit was observed on the right macula with central golden micronodules in a honeycomb pattern. SD-OCT showed an "anterior dislocation" of all the retinal layers up to the inner/outer segment (IS/OS) line and irregular deposits at the OS level together with thickening of the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) layer. As visual acuity increased, eight days later, the OCT showed reduction of the sub-retinal deposits and an abnormal hyperflectivity of the sub-retinal and RPE layers was observed. The patient showed a positive serology for picornavirus. DISCUSSION: The acute SD-OCT sections of this patient with ARPE were compared with histological sections of a 35 day old Royal College of Surgeons rat. Similar findings could be observed, with preservation of the IS/OS line and accumulation of debris at the OS level, suggesting that ARPE symptoms could result from a transient phagocytic dysfunction of the RPE at the fovea, inducing reversible accumulation of undigested OS. Picornaviruses comprising enterovirus and coxsachievirus described as being associated with acute chorioretinitis. In this case, it was responsible for ARPE. CONCLUSION: We hypothesize that ARPE syndrome results from a transient dysfunction of RPE, which can occur as a post viral reaction.

Weak Form Tests of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from CEE-Countries and Russian Stock Markets

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän, Slovakian, Tsekin, Romanian, Bulgarian, Unkarin ja Puolan osakemarkkinoiden heikkojen ehtojen tehokkuutta. Tämä tutkielma on kvantitatiivinen tutkimus ja päiväkohtaiset indeksin sulkemisarvot kerättiin Datastreamin tietokannasta. Data kerättiin pörssien ensimmäisestä kaupankäyntipäivästä aina vuoden 2006 elokuun loppuun saakka. Analysoinnin tehostamiseksi dataa tutkittiin koko aineistolla, sekä kahdella aliperiodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta on testattu neljällä tilastollisella metodilla, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotesti ja epäparametrinen runs-testi. Tavoitteena on myös selvittääesiintyykö kyseisillä markkinoilla viikonpäiväanomalia. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Viikonpäiväanomalia on löydettävissä kaikilta edellä mainituilta osakemarkkinoilta paitsi Tsekin markkinoilta. Merkittävää, positiivista tai negatiivista autokorrelaatiota, on löydettävissä kaikilta osakemarkkinoilta, myös Ljung-Box testi osoittaa kaikkien markkinoiden tehottomuutta täydellä periodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden satunnaiskulku hylätään runs-testin perusteella kaikilta muilta paitsi Slovakian osakemarkkinoilla, ainakin tarkastellessa koko aineistoa tai ensimmäistä aliperiodia. Aineisto ei myöskään ole normaalijakautunut minkään indeksin tai aikajakson kohdalla. Nämä havainnot osoittavat, että kyseessä olevat markkinat eivät ole heikkojen ehtojen mukaan tehokkaita

Problems of allometric scaling analysis: examples from mammalian reproductive biology.

Biological scaling analyses employing the widely used bivariate allometric model are beset by at least four interacting problems: (1) choice of an appropriate best-fit line with due attention to the influence of outliers; (2) objective recognition of divergent subsets in the data (allometric grades); (3) potential restrictions on statistical independence resulting from phylogenetic inertia; and (4) the need for extreme caution in inferring causation from correlation. A new non-parametric line-fitting technique has been developed that eliminates requirements for normality of distribution, greatly reduces the influence of outliers and permits objective recognition of grade shifts in substantial datasets. This technique is applied in scaling analyses of mammalian gestation periods and of neonatal body mass in primates. These analyses feed into a re-examination, conducted with partial correlation analysis, of the maternal energy hypothesis relating to mammalian brain evolution, which suggests links between body size and brain size in neonates and adults, gestation period and basal metabolic rate. Much has been made of the potential problem of phylogenetic inertia as a confounding factor in scaling analyses. However, this problem may be less severe than suspected earlier because nested analyses of variance conducted on residual variation (rather than on raw values) reveals that there is considerable variance at low taxonomic levels. In fact, limited divergence in body size between closely related species is one of the prime examples of phylogenetic inertia. One common approach to eliminating perceived problems of phylogenetic inertia in allometric analyses has been calculation of 'independent contrast values'. It is demonstrated that the reasoning behind this approach is flawed in several ways. Calculation of contrast values for closely related species of similar body size is, in fact, highly questionable, particularly when there are major deviations from the best-fit line for the scaling relationship under scrutiny.

Finding the Fit Between Engineering Design and Cost Information

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is put on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method. Today, the problem of cost estimation in engineering design is that there are two separate extremes of knowledge. On the one extreme, the engineers model the technical parametres behindcosts in great detail but do not get appropriate cost information to their elegant models. On the other extreme, the accounting professionals are stuck with traditional cost accounting methods driven by the procedures and cycles of financial accounting. Therefore, in many cases, the cost information needs of various decision making groups, for example design engineers, are not served satisfactorily. This paper studies if the activity-based costing (ABC) method could offer a compromise between the two extremes. Recognizing activities and activity chains as well as activity and cost drivers could be specially beneficial for design engineers. Also, recognizing the accurate and reliable product costs of existing products helps when doing variant design. However, ABC is not at its best if the cost system becomes too complicated. This is why a comprehensive ABC-cost information system with detailed cost information for the use of design engineers should be examined critically. ABC is at its best when considering such issues as which activities drive costs, the cost of product complexity, allocating indirect costs on the products, the relationships between processes and costs, and the cost of excess capacity.

Differences in phasic development rate amongst wheat cultivars independent of responses to photoperiod and vernalization. A viewpoint of the intrinsic earliness hypothesis

Differences amongst wheat cultivars in the rate of reproductive development are largely dependent on differences in their sensitivity to photoperiod and vernalization. However, when these responses are accounted for, by growing vernalized seedlings under long photoperiods, cultivars can still differ markedly in time to ear emergence. Control of rate of development by this ‘third factor’ has been poorly understood and is variously referred to as intrinsic earliness, earliness in the narrow sense, basic vegetative period, earliness per se, and basic development rate. Certain assumptions are made in the concept of intrinsic earliness. They are that differences in intrinsic earliness (i) are independent of the responses of the cultivars to photoperiod and vernalization, (ii) apply only to the length of the vegetative period up to floral initiation (as suggested by several authors), (iii) are maintained under different temperatures, measured either in days or degree days. As a consequence of this, the ranking of cultivars (from intrinsically early to intrinsically late) must be maintained at different temperatures. This paper, by the re-analysis of published data, examines the extent to which these assumptions can be supported. Although it is shown that intrinsic earliness operates independently of photoperiod and vernalization responses, the other assumptions were not supported. The differences amongst genotypes in time to ear emergence, grown under above-optimum vernalization and photoperiod (that is when the response to these factors is saturated), were not exclusively due to parallel differences in the length of the vegetative phase, and the length of the reproductive phase was independent of that of the vegetative phase. Thus, it would be possible to change the relative allocation of time to vegetative and reproductive periods with no change in the full period to ear emergence. The differences in intrinsic earliness between cultivars were modified by the temperature regime under which they were grown, i.e. the difference between cultivars (both considering the full phase to ear emergence or some sub-phases) was not a constant amount of time or thermal time at different temperatures. In addition, in some instances genotypes changed their ranking for ‘intrinsic earliness’ depending on the temperature regime. This was interpreted to mean that while all genotypes are sensitive to temperature they differ amongst themselves in the extent of that sensitivity. Therefore, ‘intrinsic earliness’ should not be considered as a static genotypic characteristic, but the result of the interaction between the genotype and temperature. Intrinsic earliness is therefore likely to be related to temperature sensitivity. Some implications of these conclusions for plant breeding and crop simulation modelling are discussed.

The differentiation hypothesis and the Flynn effect

Many studies have shown that IQs have been increasing over the last half century. These increases have come to be known as «the Flynn effect». The «Flynn effect» represents a difference on ability-level between groups of the same age but different cohort. The ability-level differentiation hypothesis represents a difference on the relevance of cognitive factors between groups of high and low ability. Hence, it should be possible to imitate the ability-level differentiation effect by comparing groups of the same age but different cohort. The indifferentiation hypothesis represents no differences on the relevance of cognitive abilities in all age groups within the same cohort. The aim of the present study is to test the relationships between these phenomena. For this purpose we analyzed the American standardisation samples of the WISC, WISC-R and WISC-III. Results support the link between the Flynn effect and the differentiation hypothesis. Also, reported evidence replicate previous findings supporting the indifferentiation hypothesis. Implications for the assessment of the intelligence are discussed.

Sex-chromosome differentiation and 'sex races' in the common frog (Rana temporaria).

Sex-chromosome differentiation was recently shown to vary among common frog populations in Fennoscandia, suggesting a trend of increased differentiation with latitude. By rearing families from two contrasted populations (respectively, from northern and southern Sweden), we show this disparity to stem from differences in sex-determination mechanisms rather than in XY-recombination patterns. Offspring from the northern population display equal sex ratios at metamorphosis, with phenotypic sexes that correlate strongly with paternal LG2 haplotypes (the sex chromosome); accordingly, Y haplotypes are markedly differentiated, with male-specific alleles and depressed diversity testifying to their smaller effective population size. In the southern population, by contrast, a majority of juveniles present ovaries at metamorphosis; only later in development do sex ratios return to equilibrium. Even at these later stages, phenotypic sexes correlate only mildly with paternal LG2 haplotypes; accordingly, there are no recognizable Y haplotypes. These distinct patterns of gonadal development fit the concept of 'sex races' proposed in the 1930s, with our two populations assigned to the 'differentiated' and 'semi-differentiated' races, respectively. Our results support the suggestion that 'sex races' differ in the genetic versus epigenetic components of sex determination. Analysing populations from the 'undifferentiated race' with high-density genetic maps should help to further test this hypothesis.

Do we need to revise the tripartite subdivision hypothesis of the human subthalamic nucleus (STN)? Response to Alkemade and Forstmann.

Recently in this journal, Alkemade and Forstmann again challenged the evidence for a tripartite organisation to the subthalamic nucleus (STN) (Alkemade & Forstmann 2014). Additionally, they raised specific issues with the earlier published results using 3T MRI to perform in vivo diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) based segmentation of the STN (Lambert et al. 2012). Their comments reveal a common misconception related to the underlying methodologies used, which we clarify in this reply, in addition to highlighting how their current conclusions are synonymous with our original paper. The ongoing debate, instigated by the controversies surrounding STN parcellation, raises important implications for the assumptions and methodologies employed in mapping functional brain anatomy, both in vivo and ex vivo, and reveals a fundamental emergent problem with the current techniques. These issues are reviewed, and potential strategies that could be developed to manage them in the future are discussed further.