Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Synthesis, characterization, and fire retardancy of ferrocene containing polyphosphate esters

Polyphosphate esters containing ferrocene structures were synthesized from 1,1′-bis (p-hydroxyphenylamido) ferrocene and 1,1′-bis (p-hydroxyphenoxycarbonyl) ferrocene with aryl phosphorodichloridates by interfacial polycondensation using a phase transfer catalyst. The polymers were characterized by infrared, 1H-, 13C-, and 31-NMR spectroscopy. The molecular weights were determined by end group analysis using 31P-NMR spectral data. The thermal stability and fire retardancy were respectively determined by thermogravimetry and limiting oxygen index (LOI) measurements. The polyamide-phosphate esters showed better thermal stability and higher LOI values than the polyester-phosphate esters.

Tree mortality, fire scar formation and regeneration 8 years after low-intensity fire in managed Pinus sylvestris stands

Fire is an important driver of the boreal forest ecosystem, and a useful tool for the restoration of degraded forests. However, we lack knowledge on the ecological processes initiated by prescribed fires, and whether they bring about the desired restoration effects. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of low-intensity experimental prescribed fires on four ecological processes in young commercial Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) stands eight years after the burning. The processes of interest were tree mortality, dead wood creation, regeneration and fire scar formation. These were inventoried in twelve study plots, which were 30 m x 30 m in size. The plots belonged to two different stand age classes: 30-35 years or 45 years old at the time of burning. The study was partly a follow-up of study plots researched by Sidoroff et al. (2007) one year after burning in 2003. Tree mortality increased from 183 stems ha-1 in 2003 to 259 stems ha-1 in 2010, corresponding to 15 % and 21 % of stem number respectively. Most mortality was experienced in the stands of the younger age class, in smaller diameter classes and among species other than Scots pine. By 2010, the average mortality of Scots pine per plot was 18%, but varied greatly ranging from 0% to 63% of stem number. Delayed mortality, i.e. mortality that occurred between 2 and 8 years after fire, seemed to become more important with increasing diameter. The input of dead wood also varied greatly between plots, from none to 72 m3 ha-1, averaging at 12 m3 ha-1. The amount of fire scarred trees per plot ranged from none to 20 %. Four out of twelve plots (43 %) did not have any fire scars. Scars were on average small: 95% of scars were less than 4 cm in width, and 75% less than 40 cm in length. Owing to the light nature of the fire, the remaining overstorey and thick organic layer, regeneration was poor overall. The abundance of pine and other seedlings indicated a viable seed source existed, but the seedlings failed to establish under dense canopy. The number of saplings ranged from 0 to 12 333 stems ha-1. The results of this study indicate that a low intensity fire does not necessarily initiate the ecological processes of tree mortality, dead wood creation and regeneration in the desired scale. Fire scars, which form the basis of fire dating in fire history studies, did not form in all cases.

Characterization of cast irons for optimum performance by overall rating method

An experimental investigation was carried out to Characterise the performance of four types of cast iron under adhesive wear, erosive wear, cavitation erosion and low frequency thermal cycling. Results indicate that vermicular graphite iron has the best rating among the cast irons investigate,based on the overall performance as well as cost consideration.

Contrasting fire regimes in a seasonally dry tropical forest and a savanna ecosystem in the western Ghats, India

Tropical dry forests and savannas constitute more than half of all tropical forests and grasslands, but little is known about forest fire regimes within these two extensive types of ecosystems. Forest fire regimes in a predominantly dry forest in India, the Nilgiri landscape, and a predominantly savanna ecosystem in the Sathyamangalam landscape, were examined. Remote sensing data were applied to delineate burned areas, determine fire size characteristics, and to estimate fire-rotation intervals. Belt transects (0.5 ha) were used to estimate forest structure, diversity, and fuel loads. Mean area burned, mean number of fires, and mean fire size per year were substantially higher in the Nilgiri landscape compared to the Sathyamangalam landscape. Mean fire-rotational interval was 7.1 yr in the Nilgiri landscape and 44.1 yr in the Sathyamangalam landscape. Tree (>= 10 cm diameter at breast height) species diversity, tree density, and basal area were significantly higher in the Nilgiri landscape compared to the Sathyamangalam landscape. Total fuel loads were significantly higher in tropical dry and moist deciduous forests in the Nilgiri landscape, but total fuel loads were higher in the tropical dry thorn forests of the Sathyamangalam landscape. Thus, the two landscapes revealed contrasting fire regimes and forest characteristics, with more and four-fold larger fires in the Nilgiri landscape. The dry forests and savannas could be maintained by a combination of factors, such as fire, grazing pressures, and herbivore populations. Understanding the factors maintaining these two ecosystems will be critical for their conservation.

Contribution of forest fire ash and plant litter decay on stream dissolved composition in a sub-humid tropical watershed (Mule Hole, Southern India)

The current understanding of wildfire effects on water chemistry is limited by the quantification of the elemental dissolution rates from ash and element release rate from the plant litter, as well as quantification of the specific ash contribution to stream water chemistry. The main objective of the study was to provide such knowledge through combination of experimental modelling, field data and end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) of wildfire impact on a watershed scale. The study concerns watershed effects of fire in the Indian subcontinent, a region that is typically not well represented in the fire science literature. In plant litter ash, major elements are either hosted in readily-soluble phases (K, Mg) such as salts, carbonates and oxides or in less-soluble carrier-phases (Si, Ca) such as amorphous silica, quartz and calcite. Accordingly, elemental release rates, inferred from ash leaching experiments in batch reactor, indicated that the element release into solution followed the order K > Mg > Na > Si > Ca. Experiments on plant litter leaching in mixed-flow reactor indicated two dissolution regimes: rapid, over the week and slower over the month. The mean dissolution rates at steady-state (R-ss) indicated that the release of major elements from plant litter followed the order Ca > Si > Cl > Mg > K > Na. R-ss for Si and Ca for tree leaves and herbaceous species are similar to those reported for boreal and European tree species and are higher than that from the dissolution of soil clay minerals. This identifies tropical plant litters as important source of Si and Ca for tropical surface waters. In the wildfire-impacted year 2004, the EMMA indicated that the streamflow composition (Ca, K, Mg, Na, Si, Cl) was controlled by four main sources: rainwater, throughfall, ash leaching and soil solution. The influence of the ash end-member was maximal early in the rainy season (the two first storm events) and decreased later in the rainy season, when the stream was dominated by the throughfall end-member. The contribution of plant litter decay to the streamwater composition for a year not impacted by wildfire is significant with estimated solute fluxes originating from this decay greatly exceed, for most major elements, the annual elemental dissolved fluxes at the Mule Hole watershed outlet. This highlighted the importance of solute retention and vegetation back uptake processes within the soil profile. Overall, the fire increased the mobility and export of major elements from the soils to the stream. It also shifted the vegetation-related contribution to the elemental fluxes at the watershed outlet from long-term (seasonal) to short-term (daily to monthly). (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterising weather patterns associated with fire in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India

Anthropogenic fires in seasonally dry tropical forests are a regular occurrence during the dry season. Forest managers in India, who presently follow a fire suppression policy in such forests, would benefit from a system of assessing the potential risk to fire on a particular day. We examined the relationship between weather variables (seasonal rainfall, relative humidity, temperature) and days of fire during the dry seasons of 2004-2010, based on MODIS fire incident data in the seasonally dry tropical forests of Mudumalai in the Western Ghats, southern India. Logistic regression analysis showed that high probabilities of a fire day, indicating successful ignition of litter and grass fuel on the forest floor, were associated with low levels of early dry season rainfall, low daily average relative humidity and high daily average temperatures. These weather conditions are representative of low moisture levels of fine fuels, suggesting that the occurrence of fire is moderated by environmental conditions that reduce the flammability of fine fuels in the dry tropics. We propose a quantitative framework for assessing risk of a fire day to assist forest managers in anticipating fire occurrences in this seasonally dry tropical forest, and possibly for those across South Asia.

Fire and soil temperatures during controlled burns in seasonally dry tropical forests of southern India

Fire and soil temperatures were measured during controlled burns conducted by the Forest Department at two seasonally dry tropical forest sites in southern India, and their relationships with fuel load, fuel moisture and weather variables assessed using stepwise regression. Fire temperatures at the ground level varied between 79 degrees C and 760 degrees C, with higher temperatures recorded at high fuel loads and ambient temperatures, whereas lower temperatures were recorded at high relative humidity. Fire temperatures did not vary with fuel moisture or wind speed. Soil temperatures varied between <79 degrees C and 302 degrees C and were positively correlated with ground-level fire temperatures. Results from the study imply that fuel loads in forested areas have to be reduced to ensure low intensity fires in the dry season. Low fire temperatures would ensure lower mortality of above-ground saplings and minimal damage to root stocks of tree species that would maintain the regenerative capacity of a tropical dry forest subject to dry season wildfires.

Long-term effects of Macroternies termites, herbivores and annual early fire on woody undergrowth community in Sudanian woodland, Burkina Faso

Termites, herbivores and fire are recognized as major guilds that structure woody plant communities in African savanna and woodland ecosystems. An understanding of their interaction is crucial to design appropriate management regimes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term impacts of herbivore, fire and termite activities on regeneration of trees. Permanent experimental quadrats were established in 1992 in the Sudanian woodland of Burkina Faso subjected to grazing by livestock and annual early fire and the control. Within the treatment quadrats, an inventory of the woody undergrowth community was conducted on termitaria occupied by Macrotermes subhyalinus, extended termitosphere (within 5 m radius from the mound base) and adjacent area (beyond 5 m from the mound base). Hierarchical analysis was performed to determine significant differences in species richness, abundance and diversity indices among vegetation patches within fire and herbivory treatments. Grazed quadrats had significantly (P < 0.001) more species and stem density of woody undergrowth than non-grazed quadrats but maintained similar level of species richness and stem density of woody undergrowth on termitaria. There were not significant differences (P>0.05) in species richness and stem density between burnt and unburnt quadrats. Termitaria supported a highly diverse woody undergrowth with higher stem density than either the extended termitosphere or rest of quadrats. The density of woody undergrowth was significantly related with mature trees of selected species on termitaria (R-2 = 0.593; P<0.001) than that on the extended termitosphere (R-2 = 0.333; P<0.001) and adjacent area (R-2 = 0.197; P<0.001). It can be concluded that termites facilitate the regeneration of woody species while grazing and annual early fire play a minor role in the regeneration of woody species. The current policy that prohibits grazing should be revised to accommodate the interests of livestock herders. (C) 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Regeneration of Juvenile Woody Plants after Fire in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest of Southern India

Woody tree species in seasonally dry tropical forests are known to have traits that help them to recover from recurring disturbances such as fire. Two such traits are resprouting and rapid post-fire growth. We compared survival and growth rates of regenerating small-sized individuals (juveniles) of woody tree species after dry season fire (February-March) at eight adjacent pairs of burnt and unburnt transects in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India. Juveniles were monitored at 3-mo intervals between August 2009 and August 2010. High juvenile survivorship (>95%) was observed in both burnt and unburnt areas. Growth rates of juveniles, analyzed at the community level as well as for a few species individually (especially fast-growing ones), were distinctly higher in burnt areas compared to unburnt areas after a fire event, particularly during the pre-monsoon season immediately after a fire. Rapid growth by juveniles soon after a fire may be due to lowered competition from other vegetative forms such as grasses, possibly aided by the availability of resources stored belowground. Such an adaptation would allow a juvenile bank to be retained in the understory of a dry forest, from where individuals can grow to a possible fire-tolerant size during favorable conditions.

Can frequency diversity provide performance gains for WSNs at 2.4GHz for the fire hydrant to above ground channel

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) which utilise IEEE 802.15.4 technology offer the potential for low cost deployment and maintenance compared with conventional wired sensor networks, enabling effective and efficient condition monitoring of aged civil engineering infrastructure. We will address wireless propagation for a below to above ground scenario where one of the wireless nodes is located in a below ground fire hydrant chamber to permit monitoring of the local water distribution network. Frequency Diversity (FD) is one method that can be used to combat the damaging effects of multipath fading and so improve the reliability of radio links. However, no quantitative investigation concerning the potential performance gains from the use of FD at 2.4GHz is available for the outlined scenario. In this paper, we try to answer this question by performing accurate propagation measurements using modified and calibrated off-the-shelf 802.15.4 based sensor nodes. These measurement results are also compared with those obtained from simulations that employ our Modified 2D Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) approach. ©2009 IEEE.