An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Estudo da resposta imune humoral em mulheres com neoplasia ovariana. -

Pós-graduação em Ginecologia, Obstetrícia e Mastologia - FMB

Um modelo de avaliação integrada para análise de incertezas em programas governamentais: um estudo da educação a distância no Estado do Pará

A tarefa de projetar um sistema de EAD (SEAD) não é fácil, devido ao número de componentes (estudantes, corpo docente, administração, infra-estrutura, etc.), a complexidade do processo, as diferentes visões e abordagens quanto à sua eficácia, os valores em disputa, os interesses em jogo e as decisões urgentes. O Estado do Pará possui experiências de sucesso nesta modalidade em todos os níveis de ensino. Porém, ainda existem dificuldades, obstáculos, problemas e incertezas a serem enfrentados. Neste sentido, o objetivo da pesquisa foi criar um modelo analítico para identificar e interpretar as incertezas presentes na utilização da EAD pelo sistema educacional do Pará e detectar as atitudes dos atores envolvidos e interessados no processo, contribuindo com critérios e estratégias que podem ser utilizadas para decidir, sob condições de incerteza, sobre a implementação de SEADs e sua operacionalização. Para isso a pesquisa tomou como base a metodologia da Avaliação Integrada (AI), na perspectiva pluralista, sendo realizada em vários momentos, os quais incluiram: ampla pesquisa bibliográfica; sondagem do encaminhamento da EAD no Pará; o uso do método de inquerito delphi para instigar o consenso sobre as incertezas mais relevantes; utilização da Teoria Cultural para subsidiar a identificação da orientação cultural dos respondentes com vistas a revelar as diferentes posturas dos participantes com relação à EAD; o emprego da técnica estatística análise de cluster para agrupar as incertezas e os individuos por similaridades; e uma análise integrada dos resultados advindos das diversas etapas. O nível de consenso foi baixo, resultando em oito incertezas consideradas relevantes para o processo. Destas, 50% são de dimensão metodológica, expressando que durante um processo de inovação a metodologia se destaca por representar mudanças de paradigmas já estabelecidos. O agrupamento de incertezas, por sua vez, revelou oito grandes conjuntos de controvérsias que pressionam de maneiras diferentes o processo de tomada de decisão e operacionalização de sistemas de EAD. Pelas características de cada conjunto, percebe-se que os problemas que perpassam a EAD no Pará fazem parte do contexto atual e contemplam preocupações referentes a pontos que norteiam o processo, a incertezas de caráter geral, ao compromisso político, aos componentes que indicam a qualidade e o reconhecimento da EAD, aos aspectos metodológicos e técnicos, à estabilidade da modalidade, ao acesso e uso das novas tecnologias de informação e comunicação e às condições de infra-estrutura. Durante a concepção de SEADs a orientação cultural influencia o enfoque a ser adotado pelos dirigentes, podendo estar mais direcionado para o controle (hierárquicos), para o respeito ao aluno (igualitários), para a satisfação do aluno (individualistas) e para a visão de desconfiança (fatalistas). A integração de todos os resultados possibilitou indicar critérios de decisão e estratégias para enfrentar as incertezas ou mesmo aprender a conviver com estas. Concluiu-se que o uso da metodologia de AI se mostrou eficaz para o tratamento do problema da EAD no Pará, propiciando uma gestão das incertezas, o que se acredita levar à redução da probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos indesejáveis e/ou inesperados.

Infecções da corrente sanguínea por Klebsiella spp. produtora de Betalactamase de espectro expandido em unidades de terapia intensiva neonatal de hospital de ensino no estado do Pará: fatores de risco para letalidade

Klebsiella spp. produtora de beta-lactamases de espectro expandido (ESBL) tem emergido como um problema comum globalmente. Entretanto, dados relativos às características clínicoepidemiológicas e ao desfecho clínico em neonatos infectados por esta bactéria gram-negativa ESBL são ainda limitados. Estudo descritivo retrospectivo analítico avaliou os fatores de risco associados à letalidade e o perfil epidemiológico das Infecções de corrente sanguínea (ICS) por Klebsiella spp. ESBL em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI) neonatal de hospital de ensino no Estado do Pará, Brasil. Amostra composta por 27 neonatos, a maioria prematuros (77,8%), com a idade gestacional média de 34 semanas, variando de 27 a 41 semanas. Os episódios de ICS foram mais frequentes em recém-nascidos (RN) com peso ≤ 1500 g (40,7%), sendo que 14,8% abaixo dos de 1000g. O tempo médio de internação dos pacientes foi 40,51 dias variando de 5 a 101 dias (DP = ±29,61), com tempo médio de aparecimento da ICS de 12,2 dias após a admissão na UTI neonatal. A maioria das infecções foi provocada por bactérias da espécie Klebsiella pneumoniae (52%). A mortalidade geral encontrada foi 66,7%, com uma taxa de letalidade até o 14º dia da bacteremia de 51,8 %. O cateter vascular central (CVC) esteve presente em cerca de 60% dos RN e todos os pacientes apresentavam-se sob ventilação mecânica no momento do episódio da ICS. Quanto às variáveis associadas ao óbito até o 14° dia, apenas a inadequação da terapia antimicrobiana apresentou significância estatística (P<0,0017), já que todos os neonatos que receberam antibioticoterapia inapropriada evoluíram desfavoravelmente. As ICS causadas por Klebsiella ESBL têm se tornado um problema comum em RN prematuros com elevada mortalidade naqueles que recebem terapia inapropriada.

Acidentes de trabalho com material biológico e o seu significado para os profissionais envolvidos

Pós-graduação em Enfermagem (mestrado profissional) - FMB

Yellow fever: reemerging in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2009

OBJECTIVE: To describe the investigation of a sylvatic yellow fever outbreak in the state of Sao Paulo and the main control measures undertaken.METHODS: This is a descriptive study of a sylvatic yellow fever outbreak in the Southwestern region of the state from February to April 2009. Suspected and confirmed cases in humans and in non-human primates were evaluated. Entomological investigation in sylvatic environment involved capture at ground level and in the tree canopy to identify species and detect natural infections. Control measures were performed in urban areas to control Aedes aegypti. Vaccination was directed at residents living in areas with confirmed viral circulation and also at nearby cities according to national recommendation.RESULTS: Twenty-eight human cases were confirmed (39.3% case fatality rate) in rural areas of Sarutaia, Piraju, Tejupa, Avare, and Buri. The deaths of 56 non-human primates were also reported, 91.4% were Allouatta sp. Epizootics was confirmed in two non-human primates in the cities of Itapetininga and Buri. A total of 1,782 mosquitoes were collected, including Haemagogus leucocelaenus, Hg. janthinomys/capricornii, and Sabethes chloropterus, Sa. purpureus and Sa. undosus. Yellow fever virus was isolated from a group of Hg. Leucocelaenus from Buri. Vaccination was carried out in 49 cities, with a total of 1,018,705 doses. Nine serious post-vaccination adverse events were reported.CONCLUSIONS: The cases occurred between February and April 2009 in areas with no recorded yellow fever virus circulation in over 60 years. The outbreak region occurred outside the original recommended vaccination area with a high percentage of susceptible population. The fast adoption of control measures interrupted the human transmission within a month and the confirmation of viral circulation in humans, monkeys and mosquitoes. The results allowed the identification of new areas of viral circulation but further studies are required to clarify the dynamics of the spread of this disease.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Redução dos riscos de operação na montagem de mancais em cilindros de laminação em uma usina siderúrgica

The increasing concerns about the health and safety is significantly changing the costeffective management of labor, also becoming an important tool in the pursuit of quality. In this context the present work makes a studyin a steel mill, to determine an action plan with the goal of reducing the risk of injury during handling and setting up bearings in a workshop of rolling mill rolls. The study is structured through the Method of Analysis and Troubleshooting, and quality tools. The definition of the action plan has brought lowcost measures that seek to solve the problem, eliminating the possibility of fatality or inability to employees

Intervenções para aumentar adesão às precauçôes padrão e/ou baseadas nas vias de transmissão de micro-organismos aos cuidados do paciente: revisão sistemática de ensaios clínicos randomizados e não randomizados, séries temporais e estudos controlados antes e depois

Pós-graduação em Enfermagem - FMB

A "mão pronta" e a divina: manifestações da justiça em contos rosianos

Pós-graduação em Estudos Literários - FCLAR

Cystic Echinococcosis in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic

The northern biotype of Echinococcus granulosus occurs throughout the holarctic zones of tundra and taiga, from eastern Fennoscandia to the Bering Strait in Eurasia and in North America from arctic Alaska approximately to the northern border of the United States. The cycle of the cestode is complex in taiga at lower latitudes, because of the greater diversity of potential hosts. In the Arctic and Subarctic, however, four patterns of predator/prey relationships may be discerned. Two natural cycles involve the wolf and wild reindeer and the wolf and elk (moose), respectively. Where deer of the two species coexist, both are prey of the wolf; the interactions of the wolf and elk are here described on the basis of long-term observations made on Isle Royale (in Lake Superior near the southern limit of taiga), where only the wolf and elk serve as hosts for E. granulosus. A synanthropic cycle involving herding-dogs and domesticated reindeer caused hyperendemicity of cystic echinococcosis in arctic Eurasia, mainly in northeastern Siberia. The 4th pattern, a semi-synanthropic cycle, formerly existed in Alaska, wherein sled-dogs of the indigenous hunters became infected by consuming the lungs of wild reindeer. The sequence of changes in life-style inherent in the process of acculturation affected the occurrence of cystic echinococcosis among nomadic Iñupiat in arctic Alaska. When those people became sedentary, the environs of their early villages soon became severely contaminated by feces of dogs, and cases of cystic echinococcosis occurred. Compared to cystic echinococcosis caused by E. granulosus adapted to synanthropic hosts (dog and domestic ungulates), the infection produced by the northern biotype is relatively benign. 0fearly all diagnosed cases of cystic echinococcosis (> 300 in Alaska have occurred in indigenous people; only one fatality has been recorded (in a non-indigenous person). After sled-dogs were replaced by machines, cases have become rare in Alaska. A similar effect has been observed in Fennoscandia, in the Saami and domesticated reindeer. Recent records indicate tbat the prcvalence of cystic echinococcosis is increasing in Russia, suggesting that dogs are used there in herding.

A "mão pronta" e a divina: manifestações da justiça em contos rosianos

Pós-graduação em Estudos Literários - FCLAR

A retrospective serologic survey of hantavirus infections in the county of Cassia dos Coqueiros, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Introduction: In recent years, hantavirus infections producing severe diseases have obtained an increased attention from public health authorities from the countries of Eurasia to the Americas. Brazil has reported 1,300 cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) from 1993 to 2010, with about 80 of them occurring in the northeast of the state of Sao Paulo, with 48% fatality rate. Araraquara virus was the causative agent of HCPS in the region. Considering that hantaviruses causing human disease in the Americas were unknown until 1993, we have looked for hantavirus infections in the population of Cassia dos Coqueiros county, northeast of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, before this time. This county has about 2,800 inhabitants and an economy based on agriculture, including cultivation of Brachiaria decumbens grass. The grass seeds are an important rodent attraction, facilitating transmission of hantavirus to man. Four HCPS cases were reported so far in the county. Methods: In this study, 1,876 sera collected from 1987 to 1990 were tested for IgG to hantavirus by IgG-ELISA, using the N recombinant protein of Araraquara virus as antigen. Results: Positive results were observed in 89 (4.7%) samples, which were all collected in 1987. The positivity among urban inhabitants was 5.3%, compared with 4.3% among those living in rural areas. Conclusions: Our results showed that hantavirus infections occurred in Cassia dos Coqueiros, completely unrecognized, even before hantaviruses were described in the Americas.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Meningococcal disease in the Sorocaba region, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, 1999-2008

The objective of this study was to describe the occurrence of meningococcal disease reported to the Regional Health Department in Sorocaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from 1999 to 2008. Annual incidence of the disease was two cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with an increase from 2006 to 2008. Annual incidence rates were highest in the 0 to 4 year age bracket. Case-fatality was 21.8%, higher in the 0 to 4 year age bracket (26.4%), which also showed the highest incidence of the disease, and in the over 30-year age bracket (28%). Diagnosis was confirmed by laboratory test in 71% of cases (culture in 45.3%) and by clinical and epidemiological criteria in 22%. Serological groups were B in 45.7%, C in 47.3%, W135 in 3.7%, and Y in 1.5% of the identified cases, with a predominance of B from 1999 to 2003 and C from 2004 to 2008. The most frequent phenotypes were B:4, 7:P1.19,15 and C:23:P1.14-6. The results emphasize the need for regional surveillance of trends in the disease for early detection of outbreaks and monitoring circulating strains.