The AASK Database V3.0: a database of human experience during aircraft evacuation incidents

This paper describes recent developments with the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database. The AASK database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents developed by the Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich with support from the UK CAA. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. Access to the latest version of the database (AASK V3.0) is available over the Internet. AASK consists of information derived from both passenger and cabin crew interviews, information concerning fatalities and basic accident details. Also provided with AASK is the Seat Plan Viewer that graphically displays the starting locations of all the passengers - both survivors and fatalities - as well as the exits used by the survivors. Data entered into the AASK database is extracted from the transcripts supplied by the National Transportation Safety Board in the US and the Air Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. The quality and quantity of the data was very variable ranging from short summary reports of the accidents to boxes of individual accounts from passengers, crew and investigators. Data imported into AASK V3.0 includes information from 55 accidents and individual accounts from 1295 passengers and 110 crew.

Coupled fire/evacuation analysis of the Station Nightclub fire

In this paper, coupled fire and evacuation simulation tools are used to simulate the Station Nightclub fire. This study differs from the analysis conducted by NIST in three key areas; (1)an enhanced flame spread model and (2)a toxicity generation model are used, (3)the evacuation is coupled to the fire simulation. Predicted early burning locations in the full-scale fire simulation are in line with photographic evidence and the predicted onset of flashover is similar to that produced by NIST. However, it is suggested that both predictions of the flashover time are approximately 15 sec earlier than actually occurred. Three evacuation scenarios are then considered, two of which are coupled with the fire simulation. The coupled fire and evacuation simulation suggests that 180 fatalities result from a building population of 460. With a 15 sec delay in the fire timeline, the evacuation simulation produces 84 fatalities which are in good agreement with actual number of fatalities. An important observation resulting from this work is that traditional fire engineering ASET/RSET calculations which do not couple the fire and evacuation simulations have the potential to be considerably over optimistic in terms of the level of safety achieved by building designs.

The Geography of Conflict and Death in Belfast, Northern Ireland

The conflict known as the oTroubleso in Northern Ireland began during the late 1960s and is defined by political and ethno-sectarian violence between state, pro-state, and anti-state forces. Reasons for the conflict are contested and complicated by social, religious, political, and cultural disputes, with much of the debate concerning the victims of violence hardened by competing propaganda-conditioning perspectives. This article introduces a database holding information on the location of individual fatalities connected with the contemporary Irish conflict. For each victim, it includes a demographic profile, home address, manner of death, and the organization responsible. Employing geographic information system (GIS) techniques, the database is used to measure, map, and analyze the spatial distribution of conflict-related deaths between 1966 and 2007 across Belfast, the capital city of Northern Ireland, with respect to levels of segregation, social and economic deprivation, and interfacing. The GIS analysis includes a kernel density estimator designed to generate smooth intensity surfaces of the conflict-related deaths by both incident and home locations. Neighborhoods with high-intensity surfaces of deaths were those with the highest levels of segregation ( 90 percent Catholic or Protestant) and deprivation, and they were located near physical barriers, the so-called peacelines, between predominantly Catholic and predominantly Protestant communities. Finally, despite the onset of peace and the formation of a power-sharing and devolved administration (the Northern Ireland Assembly), disagreements remain over the responsibility and ocommemorationo of victims, sentiments that still uphold division and atavistic attitudes between spatially divided Catholic and Protestant populations.

Risk of fatal injury in older adult drivers, passengers, and pedestrians

Objectives To compare risk of fatal injury in elderly road users (drivers, passengers, pedestrians) with that of younger age groups and to assess the contribution of elderly road users to the number of reported fatalities in the population. Design Fatality age was categorized as 21 to 29, 30 to 39, 40 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, or 70 and older, and road user was categorized as driver, passenger, or pedestrian. Estimated number of trips made by each age group was used to adjust for exposure and to measure individual risk. Setting Fatalities recorded in Britain between 1989 and 2009. Participants Population-wide fatal injury counts in Britain. Measurements Age of fatally injured drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Estimated number of trips made per year by drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Results Risk of fatal injury, but not fatality numbers in the population, were higher for older adult (=70) drivers than for younger age groups. Risk of fatal injury was also high for older adult passengers and pedestrians, who represented the majority of older adult fatalities. Conclusion Previous emphasis on driver impairment in older age has unduly focussed attention on elderly drivers, who represent a minority of all driver fatalities. Older adults represent a much larger proportion of passenger and pedestrian fatalities. Additional policy schemes and initiatives should be targeted at safeguarding older adult passengers and making the road environment safer for elderly pedestrians. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Natural Toxicants: Tetrodotoxin

Tetrodotoxin (tetrodotoxin) is a potent neurotoxin, which shuts down electrical signaling in nerves by blocking the voltage-gated sodium channel proteins in nerve cell membranes. It was originally discovered in puffer fish but is found in a range of animal species and thought to be produced by bacteria. The toxin can be lethal to humans being 10 000 times more potent than cyanide. Human fatalities have been attributed to the ingestion of this toxin through consumption of puffer fish, a delicacy in Japan and other regions, and other marine species. The effects of tetrodotoxin poisoning onset quickly and include shortness of breath, numbness, tingling, light-headedness, paralysis, and irregular heartbeat. Treatment usually consists of respiratory assistance as no antidote has been developed. The accepted method of analysis for tetrodotoxin is the mouse bioassay, although recently more ethical assays have been developed including high performance liquid chromatography, biosensor and enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay.

Selection of the most appropriate roadside vehicle restraint system – the SAVeRS project

Run Off Road (ROR) crashes are road accidents that often result in severe injuries or fatalities. To reduce the severity of ROR crashes, “forgiving roadsides” need to be designed and this includes identifying situations where there is a need for a Vehicle Restraint System (VRS) and what appropriate VRS should be selected for a specific location and traffic condition. Whilst there are standards covering testing, evaluation and classification of VRS within Europe (EN1317 parts 1 to 8), their selection, location and installation requirements are typically based upon national guidelines and standards, often produced by National Road Authorities (NRA) and/or overseeing organisations. Due to local conditions, these national guidelines vary across Europe.
The European SAVeRS project funded by CEDR has developed a practical and readily understandable VRS guidance document and a user-friendly software tool which allow designers and road administrations to select the most appropriate solution in different road and traffic conditions.
This paper describes the main outcomes of the project, the process to select the most appropriate roadside barrier, and the user friendly SAVeRS tool.

Effect of vehicle characteristics on safety, fuel use and emissions

Nos últimos anos, o número de vítimas de acidentes de tráfego por milhões de habitantes em Portugal tem sido mais elevado do que a média da União Europeia. Ao nível nacional torna-se premente uma melhor compreensão dos dados de acidentes e sobre o efeito do veículo na gravidade do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta investigação consistiu no desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão da gravidade do acidente, para o caso de um único veículo envolvido e para caso de uma colisão, envolvendo dois veículos. Além disso, esta investigação compreendeu o desenvolvimento de uma análise integrada para avaliar o desempenho do veículo em termos de segurança, eficiência energética e emissões de poluentes. Os dados de acidentes foram recolhidos junto da Guarda Nacional Republicana Portuguesa, na área metropolitana do Porto para o período de 2006-2010. Um total de 1,374 acidentes foram recolhidos, 500 acidentes envolvendo um único veículo e 874 colisões. Para a análise da segurança, foram utilizados modelos de regressão logística. Para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o efeito das características do veículo no risco de feridos graves e/ou mortos (variável resposta definida como binária) foi explorado. Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos foram criadas duas variáveis binárias adicionais: uma para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos num dos veículos (designado como veículo V1) e outra para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no outro veículo envolvido (designado como veículo V2). Para ultrapassar o desafio e limitações relativas ao tamanho da amostra e desigualdade entre os casos analisados (apenas 5.1% de acidentes graves), foi desenvolvida uma metodologia com base numa estratégia de reamostragem e foram utilizadas 10 amostras geradas de forma aleatória e estratificada para a validação dos modelos. Durante a fase de modelação, foi analisado o efeito das características do veículo, como o peso, a cilindrada, a distância entre eixos e a idade do veículo. Para a análise do consumo de combustível e das emissões, foi aplicada a metodologia CORINAIR. Posteriormente, os dados das emissões foram modelados de forma a serem ajustados a regressões lineares. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido um indicador de análise integrada (denominado “SEG”) que proporciona um método de classificação para avaliar o desempenho do veículo ao nível da segurança rodoviária, consumos e emissões de poluentes.Face aos resultados obtidos, para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o modelo de previsão do risco de gravidade identificou a idade e a cilindrada do veículo como estatisticamente significativas para a previsão de ocorrência de feridos graves e/ou mortos, ao nível de significância de 5%. A exatidão do modelo foi de 58.0% (desvio padrão (D.P.) 3.1). Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos, ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V1, a cilindrada do veículo oposto (veículo V2) aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V1, ao nível de significância de 10%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V1 revelou um bom desempenho, com uma exatidão de 61.2% (D.P. 2.4). Ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V2, a cilindrada do veículo V1 aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V2, ao nível de significância de 5%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V2 também revelou um desempenho satisfatório, com uma exatidão de 40.5% (D.P. 2.1). Os resultados do indicador integrado SEG revelaram que os veículos mais recentes apresentam uma melhor classificação para os três domínios: segurança, consumo e emissões. Esta investigação demonstra que não existe conflito entre a componente da segurança, a eficiência energética e emissões relativamente ao desempenho dos veículos.

Análise da sinistralidade rodoviária no concelho de Loures em meio interurbano

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia na Área de Especialização em Vias de Comunicação e Transporte

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

New Features to Look at Natural Phenomena

Proceeding of the 3rd International Conference on Fractional Systems and Signals, at Ghent, Belgium

Caractérisation de l’apoptose observée dans le système limbique après une ischémie myocardique transitoire chez le rat

Au niveau clinique, il a été observé que de 15 à 30 % des patients qui ont subi un infarctus du myocarde développent une dépression majeure. De plus, la population atteinte de dépression post-infarctus présente un risque de mortalité de trois à quatre fois plus élevé, et ce, en comparaison avec la population non dépressive post-infarctus. Dans un modèle de rat développé pour étudier la dépression post-infarctus, des cellules apoptotiques ont été retrouvées au niveau du système limbique. Il apparaît que les cytokines seraient en partie responsables de cette mort cellulaire qui relie le cœur en ischémie et le système nerveux central. Donc, les objectifs de cette thèse sont : 1) de caractériser spatialement et temporellement la survenue de la mort cellulaire par apoptose dans les structures du système limbique du rat, à la suite d’un infarctus du myocarde ; 2) de déterminer l’effet de l’anti-inflammatoire celecoxib sur cette apoptose observée au niveau de l’amygdale et de déterminer l’implication de l’enzyme COX-2 ; 3) de déterminer l’implication de la cytokine pro-inflammatoire TNF-α dans l’apoptose observée au niveau des structures du système limbique du rat, à la suite d’un infarctus du myocarde. Afin d’atteindre ces objectifs, les rats ont subi une ischémie de 40 minutes, suivi d’une période de reperfusion qui varie d’un protocole à l’autre (15 minutes, 24, 48, 72 heures ou 7 jours). De plus, en fonction du protocole, ces rats ont été traités avec soit du célécoxib (inhibiteur sélectif de la COX-2), soit avec du PEG sTNF-R1 (inhibiteur du TNF-α). À la suite de ces protocoles, les rats ont été sacrifiés, la taille de l’infarctus a été déterminée et les différentes structures cérébrales du système limbique prélevées. Des tests biochimiques propres à chaque protocole ont été réalisés afin de documenter l'apoptose. Il a alors été observé qu’aucun des deux traitements ne présentait d’effet sur la taille de l’infarctus. L’étude de l’apoptose dans le système limbique a révélé que : 1) le processus apoptotique se mettait en place dans l’hippocampe dès les 15 premières minutes de reperfusion suivant l’infarctus du myocarde et que ce processus était spatialement dynamique dans le système limbique jusqu’au septième jour postreperfusion ; 2) il est apparu que la COX-2 était impliquée dans l'apoptose du système limbique ; 3) il a été observé que le TNF-α périphérique était impliqué dans ce processus apoptotique après 72 heures de reperfusion en activant la voie extrinsèque de l'apoptose. Ces résultats ont permis de caractériser la survenue de l’apoptose au niveau du système limbique chez le rat à la suite d’un infarctus du myocarde et de documenter l'implication de la COX-2 et du TNF-α dans ce processus. Bien que ces résultats n’apportent pas de schémas thérapeutiques clairs ou de mécanismes physiopathologiques globaux ces derniers permettent une meilleure compréhension de la relation existante entre le cœur et le système nerveux central dans le cadre de l’infarctus du myocarde. De manière moins spécifique ils précisent la relation entre le système inflammatoire et le système nerveux central.

Politics in extraordinary times : a study of the reaction of political parties and elites to terrorism

Cette thèse porte sur le comportement des élites politiques durant les périodes de crise nationale et plus particulièrement sur leurs réactions aux attentats terroristes. Elle démontre que les crises terroristes sont tout comme les conflits militaires ou diplomatiques propices aux unions nationales et notamment aux ralliements des partis d’opposition auprès du gouvernement. L’analyse statistique d’actes terroristes s’étant produits dans cinq états démocratiques (Allemagne, Espagne, États-Unis d’Amérique, France et Royaume-Uni) entre 1990 et 2006 révèle que l’ampleur d’un attentat en termes de pertes humaines ainsi que la répétition de ces attentats influencent dans une large mesure la réaction des élites politiques. Ainsi plus l’ampleur d’un attentat est élevée, plus la probabilité d’un ralliement est grande. En revanche, la multiplication des attentats augmente la possibilité de dissension entre l’opposition et le gouvernement. Par ailleurs, l’opposition est plus susceptible de se rallier au gouvernement lorsque l’attentat est perpétré par des terroristes provenant de l’étranger. L’analyse quantitative indique également que l’existence d’un accord formel de coopération dans la lutte antiterroriste entre le gouvernement et l’opposition favorise l’union des élites. Enfin, les données analysées suggèrent que la proportion des ralliements dans les cinq pays est plus importante depuis les attentats du 11 septembre 2001. Une analyse qualitative portant exclusivement sur la France et couvrant la période 1980-2006 confirme la validité des variables identifiées dans la partie quantitative, mais suggère que les élites réagissent au nombre total de victimes (morts mais aussi blessés) et que la répétition des actes terroristes a moins d’impact lors des vagues d’attentats. Par ailleurs, les analyses de cas confirment que les élites politiques françaises sont plus susceptibles de se rallier quand un attentat vise un haut-fonctionnaire de l’État. Il apparaît également que les rivalités et rancœurs politiques propre à la France (notamment suite à l’arrivée de la gauche au pouvoir en 1981) ont parfois empêché le ralliement des élites. Enfin, cette analyse qualitative révèle que si l’extrême gauche française soutient généralement le gouvernement, qu’il soit de gauche ou de droite, en période de crise terroriste, l’extrême droite en revanche saisit quasi systématiquement l’opportunité offerte par l’acte terroriste pour critiquer le gouvernement ainsi que les partis de l’establishment. La thèse est divisée en sept chapitres. Le premier chapitre suggère que le comportement des élites politiques en période de crises internationales graves (guerres et conflits diplomatiques) est souvent influencé par la raison d’État et non par l’intérêt électoral qui prédomine lors des périodes plus paisibles. Le second chapitre discute du phénomène terroriste et de la littérature afférente. Le troisième chapitre analyse les causes du phénomène d’union nationale, soumet un cadre pour l’analyse de la réaction des élites aux actes terroristes, et présente une série d’hypothèses. Le quatrième chapitre détaille la méthodologie utilisée au cours de cette recherche. Les chapitres cinq et six présentent respectivement les résultats des analyses quantitatives et qualitatives. Enfin, le chapitre sept conclut cette thèse en résumant la contribution de l’auteur et en suggérant des pistes de recherche.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Análisis de las relaciones bilaterales entre Pakistán y Estados Unidos en materia de seguridad (Periodo 2007 - 2010)

Después de los ataques del 11 de septiembre de 2001, Pakistán se ha convertido en uno de los principales aliados de Estados Unidos para combatir las fuerzas terroristas de Al-Qaeda y los talibán en el centro y sur de Asia. La alianza bilateral no ha manifestado resultados determinantes para aliviar los problemas de seguridad en Pakistán, por el contrario, la yihad islámica se ha fortalecido en su población y los ataques terroristas que atentan contra la población civil y el aparato estatal se vuelven cada vez mas frecuentes, en razón de lo anterior, los grupos insurgentes en Pakistán han fortalecido su capacidad operativa y expandido su escenario de influencia.

Capacidad aeróbica de bomberos aeronáuticos

Los bomberos aeronáuticos son los encargados de atender todas las emergencias en los aeropuertos y sus cercanías. Estas emergencias incluyen emergencias aéreas, en tierra, eventos con materiales peligros e incendios, entre otros. Su trabajo tiene como características la realización de actividades durante periodos largos de baja intensidad y periodos cortos de alta intensidad. De acuerdo con estas características, es necesario que los bomberos aeronáuticos tengan una buena condición física. El consumo máximo de oxígeno (VO2 máx) como indicador de capacidad aeróbica resulta indispensable para conocer el desempeño de los bomberos en su trabajo. El objetivo de este estudio es determinar la capacidad aeróbica de los bomberos aeronáuticos y sus factores determinantes. Por tanto se desarrolló un estudio transversal de tipo descriptivo en una muestra de 23 hombres bomberos aeronáuticos. Se obtuvo información acerca de sus variables socio-demográficas, se determinó el VO2 máx y umbral ventilatorio mediante análisis de gases espirados durante un protocolo de ejercicio máximo sobre tapiz rodante, se evaluó la composición corporal mediante adipometría y se determinó el nivel de actividad física mediante el cuestionario internacional de actividad física IPAQ. Se encontró que la muestra tenia una edad de 32,6 ± 4,8 años, peso de 78,4 ± 9,8 kg, porcentaje de grasa de 14,8 ± 3,8 %, índice de masa corporal de 25,7 ± 2,7 y VO2máx de 44,6 ± 6. No se encontraron cambios significativos del VO2máx con la edad, pero si con la actividad física, porcentaje de grasa e índice de masa corporal. Se sugiere que el entrenamiento de los bomberos aeronáuticos durante su jornada laboral sea de intervalos de alta intensidad y que se monitorice su nivel de actividad física y composición corporal.