959 resultados para Factors Predicting Return
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In the assessment of social impact caused by meteorological events, factors of different natures need to be considered. Not only does hazard itself determine the impact that a severe weather event has on society, but also other features related to vulnerability and exposure. The requests of data related to insurance claims received in meteorological services proved to be a good indicator of the social impact that a weather event causes, according to studies carried out by the Social Impact Research Group, created within the framework of the MEDEX project. Taking these requests as proxy data, diverse aspects connected to the impact of heavy rain events have been studied. The rainfall intensity, in conjunction with the population density, has established itself as one of the key factors in social impact studies. One of the conclusions we obtained is that various thresholds of rainfall should be applied for areas of varying populations. In this study, the role of rainfall intensity has been analysed for a highly populated urban area like Barcelona. A period without significant population changes has been selected for the study to minimise the effects linked to vulnerability and exposure modifications. First, correlations between rainfall recorded in different time intervals and requests were carried out. Afterwards, a method to include the intensity factor in the social impact index was suggested based on return periods given by intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves.
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In this article, the results of a modified SERVQUAL questionnaire (Parasuraman et al., 1991) are reported. The modifications consisted in substituting questionnaire items particularly suited to a specific service (banking) and context (county of Girona, Spain) for the original rather general and abstract items. These modifications led to more interpretable factors which accounted for a higher percentage of item variance. The data were submitted to various structural equation models which made it possible to conclude that the questionnaire contains items with a high measurement quality with respect to five identified dimensions of service quality which differ from those specified by Parasuraman et al. And are specific to the banking service. The two dimensions relating to the behaviour of employees have the greatest predictive power on overall quality and satisfaction ratings, which enables managers to use a low-cost reduced version of the questionnaire to monitor quality on a regular basis. It was also found that satisfaction and overall quality were perfectly correlated thus showing that customers do not perceive these concepts as being distinct
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Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a disease of increasing concern in the production of wheat (Triticum aestivum). This work studied some of the factors affecting the density of airborne Gibberella zeae inoculum. Spore samplers were placed at the edge of a field in order to observe spore deposition over a period of 45 days and nights in September and October, the period that coincides with wheat flowering. Gibberella zeae colonies were counted for each period and values transformed to relative density. A stepwise regression procedure was used to identify weather variables helpful in predicting spore cloud density. In general, a predominant night-time spore deposition was observed. Precipitation and daily mean relative humidity over 90% were the factors most hightly associated with peak events of spores in the air. Models for predicting spore cloud density simulated reasonably well with the fluctuation of airborne propagules during both night and day, with potential to be integrated into an FHB risk model framework.
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A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.
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Today lean-philosophy has gathered a lot of popularity and interest in many industries. This customer-oriented philosophy helps to understand customer’s value creation which can be used to improve efficiency. A comprehensive study of lean and lean-methods in service industry were created in this research. In theoretical part lean-philosophy is studied in different levels which will help to understand its diversity. To support lean, this research also presents basic concepts of process management. Lastly theoretical part presents a development model to support process development in systematical way. The empirical part of the study was performed by performing experimental measurements during the service center’s product return process and by analyzing this data. Measurements were used to map out factors that have a negative influence on the process flow. Several development propositions were discussed to remove these factors. Problems mainly occur due to challenges in controlling customers and due to the lack of responsibility and continuous improvement on operational level. Development propositions concern such factors as change in service center’s physical environment, standardization of work tasks and training. These factors will remove waste in the product return process and support the idea of continuous improvement.
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An understanding of seed germination ecology of weeds can assist in predicting their potential distribution and developing effective management strategies. Influence of environmental factors and seed size on germination and seedling emergence of Convolvulus arvensis (field bindweed) was studied in laboratory and greenhouse conditions. Germination occurred over a wide range of constant temperatures, between 15 and 40 ºC, with optimum germination between 20 and 25 ºC. Time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time increased while germination percentage and germination index decreased with an increase in temperature from 20 ºC, salinity and osmotic stress. However, germination was tolerant to low salt (25 mM) or osmotic stress (0.2 MPa), but as salinity and osmotic stress increased, germination percentage and germination index decreased. Seeds of C. arvensis placed at soil surface showed maximum emergence and decreased as seeding depth increased. Seeds of C. arvensis germinated over a wide range of pH (4 to 9) but optimum germination occurred at pH 6 to 8. Under highly alkaline and acidic pH, time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time increased while germination percentage and germination index decreased. Increase in field capacity caused decreased time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time but increased germination percentage and germination index. Bigger seeds had low time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time but high germination percentage and germination index. Smaller seeds were more sensitive to environmental factors as compared to larger or medium seeds. It can be concluded that except for pH, all environmental factors and seed sizes adversely affect C. arvensis as regards seed germination or emergence and germination or emergence traits, and larger seeds result in improved stand establishment and faster germination than small seeds, regardless of moisture stress or deeper seeding depth.
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Deregulated proliferation has been recognized among the most important factors promoting breast cancer development and progression. The aim of the project is to gain understanding of the role of specific cell cycle regulators of metaphase-anaphase transition and evaluate their potential in breast cancer prognostication and treatment decisions. Metaphase-anaphase transition is triggered by activation of anaphase promoting complex (APC) which is activated by a cascade of regulatory proteins, among them securin, Cdc20 and Cdc27. These proteins promote the metaphase–anaphase transition and participate in the timely separation of the chromatids. This study is based on a patient material of approximately 600 breast cancer patients and up to 22 years of follow-up. As the main observation, based on DNA cytometric and immunohistochemical methods, securin, Cdc20 and Cdc27 protein expressions were associated with abnormal DNA content and outcome of breast cancer. In the studied patient material, high securin expression alone and in combination with Cdc20 and Cdc27 predicted up to 9.8-fold odds for aneuploid DNA content in human breast cancer. In Kaplan–Meier analyses, high expression of securin systematically indicated decrease in breast cancer survival as compared to low expression cases. The adverse effect of high securin expression was further strengthened by combining it with Cdc20 or Cdc27 expressions, resulting in up to 6.8-fold risk of breast cancer death. High securin and Cdc20 expression was also associated with triple-negative breast cancer type with high statistical significance. Securin, Cdc20 or Cdc27 have not previously been investigated in a clinically relevant large breast cancer patient material or in association with DNA ploidy. The present findings suggest that the studied proteins may serve as potential biomarkers for identification of aggressive course of disease and unfavourable outcome of human breast cancer, and that they may provide a future research aim for understanding abnormal proliferation in malignant disease.
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Community service participation can have a positive impact on development, especially for youth. Although researchers have found positive outcomes, there has been a notable decline in youth participation over the past few years (Statistics Canada, 2000). Given the positive outcomes and current decline, it has been argued that youth should be encouraged to get involved in service activities. In the present study, quantitative and qualitative data were collected to determine factors that would help youth to initiate and sustain service, along with examining the quality of their experience. Eighty-two university undergraduate students (23 men), ranging in age from 17-20 years completed a 60-minute self-report questionnaire. Initiating and sustaining factors, motivational systems (similar to approach and avoidance dimensions), activity dimensions {Structure, Supportive Social Environment), quality of experience {Positive, Stress-Challenge), and future intention to participate in community service were measured. Eight participants also completed a 20-minute telephone interview to complement and expand on the quantitative data collected. Some initiating and sustaining factors were specific to individuals higher on the avoidance dimension, while others were relevant to those higher on the approach dimension. Several factors also were important to individuals regardless of their motivational system orientation. Positive quality of experience was related positively to experiencing a supportive social environment. In addition, women rated their community service as more positive than did men. A predicted interaction between the avoidance dimension and Structure in predicting positive quality of experience was not supported; however, positive quality of experience was predicted by the interaction of the approach dimension and Structure. A tested interaction between the avoidance dimension and Supportive Social Environment in predicting positive quality of experience was not supported. Similarly, a predicted interaction between the approach dimension and Supportive Social Environment in predicting positive experience quality was not supported. However, Supportive Social Environment was positively related to positive quality of experience. No support was found for a mediational role for positive quality of experience or stress-challenge quality of experience in exploring the relation between motivational orientation and fiiture intention to engage in service activities. The results of this study suggest that participating in a service environment that is supportive and provides the opportunity for social interactions with others would promote positive quality of experience and help youth sustain involvement. Thus, to help youth have positive experiences and to remain active in service, it is important for service agencies to promote these types of environments. In addition, some initiating and sustaining factors were specific to youth higher on the avoidance dimension and some were relevant to youth higher on the approach dimension. Therefore, service agencies may need to consider using different recruitment and retention strategies, depending on the type of youth they wish to recruit.
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The present study tested the appHcabiUty of Ajzen's (1985) theory of planned behaviour (TPB), an extension of Fishbein and Ajzen's (1975) theory of reasoned action (TRA), for the first time, in the context of abused women's decision to leave their abusive relationships. The TPB, as a means of predicting women's decision to leave their abusive partners' was drawn from Strube's (1988, 1991) proposed decision-making model based on the principle that the decision-making process is a rational, deliberative process, and regardless of outcome, was a result of a logical assessment of the available data. As a means of predicting those behaviours not under volitional control, Ajzen's (1985) TPB incorporated a measure of perceived behavioural control. Data were collected in two phases, ranging from 6 months to 1 year apart. It was hypothesized that, to the extent that an abused woman held positive attitudes, subjective norms conducive to leaving, and perceived control over leaving, she would form an intention to leave and thus, increase the likelihood of actually leaving her partner. Furthermore, it was expected that perceptions of control would predict leaving behaviour over and above attitude and subjective norm. In addition, severity and frequency of abuse were assessed, as were demographic variables. The TPB failed to account significantly for variability in either intentions or leaving behaviour. All of the variance was attributed to those variables associated with the theory of reasoned action, with social influence emerging as the strongest predictor of a woman's intentions. The poor performance of this model is attributed to measurement problems with aspects of attitude and perceived control, as well as a lack of power due to the small sample size. The insufficiency of perceived control to predict behaviour also suggests that, on the surface at least, other factors may be at work in this context. Implications of these results, and recommendations such as, the importance of obtaining representative samples, the inclusion of self-esteem and emotions as predictor variables in this model, a reevaluation of the target behaviovu" as nonvolitional, and longitudinal studies spanning a longer time period for future research within the context of decision-making are discussed.
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This study examined the factors affecting treatment decision making for young women with early stage breast cancer. Thirty women, aged 35 to 52 years, were presented information about two equally effective chemotherapy treatments following surgery for breast cancer using an educational instrument called a "decision board." Although equally effective, the treatments differ with regards to side effects and treatment schedule. The purpose of this research was to investigate what factors affect the decision-making process. Following administration of the decision board, women were given a take-home version to review and asked to return one to two weeks later with a decision, at which time they completed a questionnaire. theoretical framework for this study was constructed from the literature on self-directed learning and critical thinking. The Overall, the factors rated most important to the treatment decision were related to quality of life, side effects, and length of treatment. Five factors were found to be rated significantly different by the women who chose one treatment versus the other in terms of importance to their decision. These were side effects in general, vomiting, hair loss, family role, and the number of trips to the cancer centre required for treatment.Implications and recommendations for patient education, research, and practice evolved from the findings of this study.
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Now, more than ever, sponsors of athletic events demand to see evidence of a commercial return, such as enhanced brand awareness, for their investment of cash or non-cash resources (Lough et aI., 2000). The most common way to measure the impact of perimeter signage (Le., any billboard or sign that displays a company's brand name and/or logo and which surrounds the playing area) on spectators' awareness of event sponsors has been through the use of brand name recall and recognition tests (Shilbury & Berriman, 1996). Recall testing requires spectators to list all of the sponsors they can remember seeing at, for example, an athletic event, strictly from memory and without any help (Cuneen & Hannan, 1993). With recognition testing, spectators are required to identify sponsors from a prepared list which include "dummy" brand names (i.e., sponsors that are present in the list but which do not actually sponsor the event). In order to determine whether sponsors' brand awareness objectives are being met, it is important for sport and recreation marketers to understand what influences a spectator's ability to remember (Le., recall and/or recognize) the brand names of companies who advertise on perimeter signage. The purpose this study was to examine the factors that influence spectators' recall and recognition of embedded sponsorship stimuli (i.e., company brand names on perimeter signage surrounding the play area) at a Canadian University's men's basketball game and football game. These factors included the number of games spectators attended over the course of the season (i.e., repeated exposure to sponsorship stimuli), spectators' level of involvement with the event, and spectators' level of involvement with the advertisements (i.e., perimeter signage). This study also examined the differences between recall and recognition as a means of measuring spectators' awareness of sponsors, and attempted to determine if there are sport differences in spectators' recall and recognition of perimeter signage. Upon leaving the football stadium or gymnasium, spectators were approached, at random, by trained research assistants located at each exit and asked to complete a brief survey questionnaire. Respondents completed the survey on-site. A total of 358 completed surveys were collected from spectators who attended the football (N = 277) and basketball (N = 81) games. The data suggest that football and basketball respondents recognized more sponsors' brand names than they recalled. In addition, football respondents who were highly involved with the event (i.e., those individuals who viewed attending the events as fun, interesting and exciting) attended more games over the course of the season and had significantly higher brand name recognition of sponsors who advertised on perimeter signage than those individuals with low involvement with the athletic event. Football respondents who were highly involved with the sponsors' advertisements (i.e., those individuals who viewed sponsors' perimeter signage as appealing, valuable and important) had significantly higher brand name recall of event sponsors than those individuals with low involvement with these sponsors' advertisements. Repeated exposure to perimeter signage did not have a significant influence on football or basketball respondents' recall or recognition of sponsors. Finally, the data revealed that football respondents had significantly higher recall of sponsors' brand names than basketball respondents. Conversely, basketball respondents had significantly higher recognition of sponsors' brand names than did football respondents.
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BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is recognized as a major cause of coronary heart disease (CHD). Emerged evidence suggests that the combination of triglycerides (TG) and waist circumference can be used to predict the risk of CHD. However, considering the known limitations of TG, non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL = Total cholesterol - HDL cholesterol) cholesterol and waist circumference model may be a better predictor of CHD. PURPOSE: The Framingham Offspring Study data were used to determine if combined non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference is equivalent to or better than TG and waist circumference (hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype) in predicting risk of CHD. METHODS: A total of3,196 individuals from Framingham Offspring Study, aged ~ 40 years old, who fasted overnight for ~ 9 hours, and had no missing information on nonHDL cholesterol, TG levels, and waist circumference measurements, were included in the analysis. Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between the joint distributions of non-HDL cholesterol, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; TG, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; and the joint distribution of non-HDL cholesterol and TG by waist circumference strata, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension status. RESULTS: The ROC AUC associated with non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference are 0.6428 (CI: 0.6183, 0.6673) and 0.6299 (CI: 0.6049, 0.6548) respectively. The difference in the ROC AVC is 1.29%. The p-value testing if the difference in the ROC AVCs between the two models is zero is 0.10. There was a strong positive association between non-HDL cholesterol and the risk for non-fatal CHD within each TO levels than that for TO levels within each level of nonHDL cholesterol, especially in individuals with high waist circumference status. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the model including non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference may be superior at predicting CHD compared to the model including TO and waist circumference.
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Malgré des années de recherches sur la douleur et les incapacités chroniques, peu de conclusions claires émergent quant aux facteurs de risque les plus pertinents. La majorité des auteurs s’entendent toutefois sur un fait, les troubles musculo-squelettiques et l’adaptation à leurs nombreuses conséquences est un processus complexe, multidimensionnel et déterminé par l’interaction de facteurs biopsychosociaux. Deux articles sont présentés avec comme objectifs généraux d’identifier les déterminants importants de l’ajustement à un trouble musculo-squelettique. Le premier article consiste en une recension des écrits systématique visant à résumer tous les facteurs pronostiques biopsychosociaux de l’ajustement multidimensionnel aux troubles musculo-squelettiques et examinant leur pertinence à déterminer ces divers indicateurs d’ajustement, principalement la participation au travail, les limitations fonctionnelles, la douleur, la qualité de la vie, la détresse psychologique et la rechute. Les 105 études prospectives recensées et correspondant aux critères d’inclusion et d’exclusion ont été analysés et chaque association significative a été résumée. Par la suite, 68 études qui ont inclus des facteurs sociodémographiques, biologiques, psychologiques et sociaux ont été analysées séparément. Leur qualité méthodologique a été évaluée, un niveau d’évidence a par la suite été établi pour chaque association entre les facteurs de risque et les diverses variables de résultats. Les divergences dans ces associations entre les différentes phases de chronicité ont également été identifiées. Un niveau d’évidence élevée a été découvert concernant le rôle des attentes de rétablissement, certaines pratiques de gestion intégrées de l’incapacité, les stratégies d’adaptation (coping), la somatisation, la comorbidité, la durée de l’épisode symptomatique et un niveau modéré d’évidence a été découvert pour les comportements de douleur. Lorsque vient le temps de prédire les divers indicateurs d’ajustement de sujets souffrant de troubles musculo-squelettiques, chacun tend à être associé à des facteurs de risque différents. Peu de différences ont été relevées lorsque les phases de chronicité ont été prises en compte. Ces résultats confirment la nature biopsychosociale de l’ajustement aux troubles musculo-squelettiques bien que les facteurs psychosociaux semblent être prédominants. Le second article est une étude prospective avec un suivi de 2 et 8 mois. Elle a été menée auprès de 62 travailleurs accidentés, principalement en phase de chronicité et prestataires d’indemnités de revenu de la CSST (Commission en Santé et Sécurité du Travail du Québec). L’objectif de cette étude était d’identifier les déterminants de l’engagement actif dans un processus de retour a travail par opposition à l’incapacité chronique, tout en adoptant une approche biopsychosociale. Cet objectif a été poursuivi en faisant l’étude, d’une part, de la pertinence de facteurs de risque ayant déjà fait l’objet d’études mais pour lesquelles aucun consensus n’est atteint quant à leur utilité prédictive et d’autre part, de certains facteurs de risque négligés, voire, même omis de ce domaine de recherche. Suite à des analyses multivariées, le genre, les attentes de rétablissement en terme de capacité à retourner au travail et l’importance du travail ont été identifiés comme des déterminants de l’incapacité chronique liée au travail. Après 8 mois, l’âge, la consolidation médicale, les symptômes traumatiques, le support au travail et l’importance du travail ont été également identifiés comme des déterminants d’incapacité chronique liée au travail. Ces résultats démontrent l’importance d’aborder l’étude de l’incapacité chronique et de la réinsertion professionnelle selon une perspective multidimensionnelle. Ces résultats corroborent également les conclusions de notre recension des écrits, puisque les facteurs psychosociaux ont été identifiés comme étant des déterminants importants dans cette étude.
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Malgré de nombreuses études qui soutiennent l'idée que les enfants ayant vécu la rupture de leurs parents rencontrent un plus haut niveau de difficultés affectives et comportementales que les enfants de familles intactes, certaines questions restent à éclaircir. Notamment, les données empiriques existantes ne conduisent pas à des conclusions précises quant au moment exact de l’apparition de ces difficultés. De plus, ce n'est pas clair si ces difficultés sont associées à la séparation en soi, ou à bien d'autres facteurs liés à la séparation. Cette thèse est constituée de deux articles empiriques. Le premier examine l’adaptation de l’enfant avant et après la séparation en fonction du sexe et de l'âge au moment de la séparation. Le second article présente une étude qui a pour objectif de départager l’importance des facteurs parentaux et contextuels et celle de la séparation parentale pour expliquer l’adaptation de l’enfant. Les participants proviennent de l'Étude Longitudinale du Développement des Enfants du Québec (ÉLDEQ, 1998-2006). À chaque enquête de l'ÉLDEQ, une entrevue structurée réalisée auprès de la mère a permis d'évaluer les niveaux d’hyperactivité/impulsivité, d’anxiété et d’agressivité physique de l’enfant. Pendant cette entrevue, les mères ont également répondu à des questions sur la qualité de leurs pratiques parentales et sur le revenu du ménage. Finalement, un questionnaire auto-administré à la mère a permis d'évaluer ses propres symptômes de dépression et d'anxiété. La première étude inclus 143 enfants de familles séparées et 1705 enfants de familles intactes. Deux sous-groupes ont été créés selon que l’enfant ait vécu la séparation entre 2 et 4 ans, ou entre 4 et 6 ans. L’adaptation de l'enfant a été évaluée à un temps de mesure avant la séparation et à deux temps de mesure après la séparation. Les résultats de cette première étude démontrent qu’avant la séparation, les enfants de familles intactes et séparées ne se distinguent pas significativement quant à leurs niveaux d’hyperactivité/impulsivité et d’anxiété. Par contre, ces difficultés deviennent significativement plus élevées chez les enfants de familles séparées après la rupture des parents. D’autres parts, le niveau d’agressivité physique est plus élevé chez les enfants de la séparation indépendamment du temps de mesure. Finalement, les différences entre les deux groupes d’enfants ne dépendent pas du sexe ou de l’âge au moment de la séparation. La deuxième étude inclus 358 enfants de 8 ans qui ont vécu la séparation de leurs parents, et 1065 enfants du même âge provenant de familles intactes. Après avoir contrôlé pour le sexe de l’enfant, les résultats ont démontré que lorsqu’on tient compte de la contribution des symptômes maternels de dépression et d'anxiété, de la qualité des pratiques parentales et du revenu du ménage dans l’adaptation de l’enfant, la séparation parentale ne demeurent plus liée aux niveaux d’anxiété et d'agressivité physique de l’enfant. Par contre, la relation entre la séparation parentale et l’hyperactivité/impulsivité de l’enfant demeure significative. Les résultats présentés dans les articles sont discutés ainsi que leurs implications.
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Essai doctoral d’intégration Présenté en vue de l’obtention du doctorat (D.Psy.)