Factors affecting N2 fixation by the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium sp. GBRTRLI101

Various factors affecting N-2 fixation of a cultured strain of Trichodesmium sp. (GBRTRLI101) from the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon were investigated. The diurnal pattern of N2 fixation demonstrated that it was primarily light-induced although fixation continued to occur for at least 1 h in the dark in samples that had been actively fixing N-2. N-2 fixation was dependent on the light intensity and stimulated more by white light when compared with blue, green, yellow and red light whereas rates of N-2 fixation decreased most under red light. Inorganic phosphorous concentrations in the lower range of treatments up to 1.2 muM significantly stimulated N-2 fixation and further additions promoted little or no increase in N-2 fixation. Organic phosphorous (Na-glycerophosphate) also stimulated N-2 fixation rates. Added combined nitrogen (NH4+, NO3-, urea) of 10 muM did not inhibit N-2 fixation in short-term studies (first generation), however it was depressed in the long-term studies (fifth generation). (C) 2003 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cervical Cancer Control, Priorities and New Directions

Cervical cancer is caused by infection with a range of high risk oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types, and it is now accepted that >99% of cervical cancer is initiated by HPV infection. The estimated lifetime risk of cervical cancer is nevertheless relatively low (less than I in 20 for most community based studies). Although sensitivity and specificity of the available diagnostic techniques are suboptimal, Screening for persistent HPV infection is effective in reducing the incidence of cervical cancer. Infection can be detected by molecular techniques or by cytological examination of exfoliated cervical cells. Persistent infection is the single best predictor of risk of cervical cancer.(1) The latest findings of HPV and cervical cancer research need to be widely disseminated to the scientific and medical societies that are updating screening and management protocols, public health professionals, and to women and clinicians. This report reviews current evidence, clinical implications and directions for further research in the prevention, control and management of cervical cancer. We report the conclusions of the Experts' Meeting at the EUROGIN 2003 conference. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Psilocybin impairs high-level but not low-level motion perception

The hallucinogenic serotonin(IA&2A) agonist psilocybin is known for its ability to induce illusions of motion in otherwise stationary objects or textured surfaces. This study investigated the effect of psilocybin on local and global motion processing in nine human volunteers. Using a forced choice direction of motion discrimination task we show that psilocybin selectively impairs coherence sensitivity for random dot patterns, likely mediated by high-level global motion detectors, but not contrast sensitivity for drifting gratings, believed to be mediated by low-level detectors. These results are in line with those observed within schizophrenic populations and are discussed in respect to the proposition that psilocybin may provide a model to investigate clinical psychosis and the pharmacological underpinnings of visual perception in normal populations.

Modulating the rate and rhythmicity of perceptual rivalry alternations with the mixed 5-HT2A and 5-HT1A agonist psilocybin

Binocular rivalry occurs when different images are presented simultaneously to corresponding points within the left and right eyes. Under these conditions, the observer's perception will alternate between the two perceptual alternatives. Motivated by the reported link between the rate of perceptual alternations, symptoms of psychosis and an incidental observation that the rhythmicity of perceptual alternations during binocular rivalry was greatly increased 10 h after the consumption of LSD, this study aimed to investigate the pharmacology underlying binocular rivalry and to explore the connection between the timing of perceptual switching and psychosis. Psilocybin (4-phosphoryloxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine, PY) was chosen for the study because, like LSD, it is known to act as an agonist at serotonin (5-HT)(1A) and 5-HT2A receptors and to produce an altered state sometimes marked by psychosis-like symptoms. A total of 12 healthy human volunteers were tested under placebo, low-dose ( 115 mg/kg) and high-dose ( 250 mg/kg) PY conditions. In line with predictions, under both low- and high-dose conditions, the results show that at 90 min postadministration ( the peak of drug action), rate and rhythmicity of perceptual alternations were significantly reduced from placebo levels. Following the 90 min testing period, the perceptual switch rate successively increased, with some individuals showing increases well beyond pretest levels at the final testing, 360 min postadministration. However, as some subjects had still not returned to pretest levels by this time, the mean phase duration at 360 min was not found to differ significantly from placebo. Reflecting the drug-induced changes in rivalry phase durations, subjects showed clear changes in psychological state as indexed by the 5D-ASC ( altered states of consciousness) rating scales. This study suggests the involvement of serotonergic pathways in binocular rivalry and supports the previously proposed role of a brainstem oscillator in perceptual rivalry alternations and symptoms of psychosis.

Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

This study focuses on: (i) the responsiveness of the U.S. financial sector stock indices to foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes; and, (ii) the extent to which good model specification can enhance the forecasts from the associated models. Three models are considered. Only the error-correction model (ECM) generated efficient and consistent coefficient estimates. Furthermore, a simple zero lag model in differences which is clearly mis-specified, generated forecasts that are better than those of the ECM, even if the ECM depicts relationships that are more consistent with economic theory. In brief, FX and interest rate changes do not impact on the return-generating process of the stock indices in any substantial way. Most of the variation in the sector stock indices is associated with past variation in the indices themselves and variation in the market-wide stock index. These results have important implications for financial and economic policies.

Model specification and forecasting foreign exchange rates with vector autoregressions

This study examines the forecasting accuracy of alternative vector autoregressive models each in a seven-variable system that comprises in turn of daily, weekly and monthly foreign exchange (FX) spot rates. The vector autoregressions (VARs) are in non-stationary, stationary and error-correction forms and are estimated using OLS. The imposition of Bayesian priors in the OLS estimations also allowed us to obtain another set of results. We find that there is some tendency for the Bayesian estimation method to generate superior forecast measures relatively to the OLS method. This result holds whether or not the data sets contain outliers. Also, the best forecasts under the non-stationary specification outperformed those of the stationary and error-correction specifications, particularly at long forecast horizons, while the best forecasts under the stationary and error-correction specifications are generally similar. The findings for the OLS forecasts are consistent with recent simulation results. The predictive ability of the VARs is very weak.

The sensitivity of US banks' stock returns to interest and exchange rate changes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity. Findings – The findings are as follows: under the conditional t-distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness-of-fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity. Practical implications – Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH-type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns. Originality/value – The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

The microstructure of the foreign exchange market:the determinants of bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange market

The purpose of this thesis is to shed more light in the FX market microstructure by examining the determinants of bid-ask spread for three currencies pairs, the US dollar/Japanese yen, the British pound/US dollar and the Euro/US dollar in different time zones. I examine the commonality in liquidity with the elaboration of FX market microstructure variables in financial centres across the world (New York, London, Tokyo) based on the quotes of three exchange rate currency pairs over a ten-year period. I use GARCH (1,1) specifications, ICSS algorithm, and vector autoregression analysis to examine the effect of trading activity, exchange rate volatility and inventory holding costs on both quoted and relative spreads. ICSS algorithm results show that intraday spread series are much less volatile compared to the intraday exchange rate series as the number of change points obtained from ICSS algorithm is considerably lower. GARCH (1,1) estimation results of daily and intraday bid-ask spreads, show that the explanatory variables work better when I use higher frequency data (intraday results) however, their explanatory power is significantly lower compared to the results based on the daily sample. This suggests that although daily spreads and intraday spreads have some common determinants there are other factors that determine the behaviour of spreads at high frequencies. VAR results show that there are some differences in the behaviour of the variables at high frequencies compared to the results from the daily sample. A shock in the number of quote revisions has more effect on the spread when short term trading intervals are considered (intra-day) compared to its own shocks. When longer trading intervals are considered (daily) then the shocks in the spread have more effect on the future spread. In other words, trading activity is more informative about the future spread when intra-day trading is considered while past spread is more informative about the future spread when daily trading is considered

Pricing-to-market for UK export sector

This thesis investigates the pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour of the UK export sector. Unlike previous studies, this study econometrically tests for seasonal unit roots in the export prices prior to estimating PTM behaviour. Prior studies have seasonally adjusted the data automatically. This study’s results show that monthly export prices contain very little seasonal unit roots implying that there is a loss of information in the data generating process of the series when estimating PTM using seasonally-adjusted data. Prior studies have also ignored the econometric properties of the data despite the existence of ARCH effects in such data. The standard approach has been to estimate PTM models using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). For this reason, both EGARCH and GJR-EGARCH (hereafter GJR) estimation methods are used to estimate both a standard and an Error Correction model (ECM) of PTM. The results indicate that PTM behaviour varies across UK sectors. The variables used in the PTM models are co-integrated and an ECM is a valid representation of pricing behaviour. The study also finds that the price adjustment is slower when the analysis is performed on real prices, i.e., data that are adjusted for inflation. There is strong evidence of auto-regressive condition heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effects – meaning that the PTM parameter estimates of prior studies have been ineffectively estimated. Surprisingly, there is very little evidence of asymmetry. This suggests that exporters appear to PTM at a relatively constant rate. This finding might also explain the failure of prior studies to find evidence of asymmetric exposure in foreign exchange (FX) rates. This study also provides a cross sectional analysis to explain the implications of the observed PTM of producers’ marginal cost, market share and product differentiation. The cross-sectional regressions are estimated using OLS, Generalised Method of Moment (GMM) and Logit estimations. Overall, the results suggest that market share affects PTM positively.Exporters with smaller market share are more likely to operate PTM. Alternatively, product differentiation is negatively associated with PTM. So industries with highly differentiated products are less likely to adjust their prices. However, marginal costs seem not to be significantly associated with PTM. Exporters perform PTM to limit the FX rate effect pass-through to their foreign customers, but they also avoided exploiting PTM to the full, since to do so can substantially reduce their profits.

Modeling foreign exchange rate pass-through using the exponential GARCH

In this chapter, the authors use an EGARCH-ECM to estimate the pass-through effects of Foreign Exchange (FX) rate changes and changes in producers' prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustments of export prices to FX rate changes and changes in producers' prices are within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous Pricing-To-Market (PTM) coefficients are within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of changes in FX rate and producers' prices vary substantially, as do asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Pricing-to-market using EGARCH-error correction model

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Pricing-to-market and the volatility of UK export prices

This empirical study examines the Pricing-To-Market (PTM) behaviour of 20 UK export sectors. Using both Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) estimation methods, we find evidence of PTM that is accompanied by strong conditional volatility and weak asymmetry effects. The PTM estimates suggest that when the currency of exporters appreciates in the current period, exporters pass-on between 31% and 94% of the Foreign Exchange (FX) rate increase to importers. However, both export price changes and producers' prices are sluggish, perhaps being driven by coordination failure and menu driven costs, amongst others. Furthermore, export prices contain strong time varying effects which impact on PTM strategy. Exporters do not typically appear to put much more weight on negative news of (say) an FX rate appreciation compared to positive news of an FX rate depreciation. Much depends on the export sector. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects

stocks. We examine the effects of foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes on the excess returns of U.S. stocks, for short-horizons of 1-40 days. Our new evidence shows a tendency for the volatility of both excess returns and FX rate changes to be negatively related with FX rate and interest rate effects. Both the number of firms with significant FX rate and interest rate effects and the magnitude of their exposures increase with the length of the return horizon. Our finding seems inconsistent with the view that firms hedge effectively at short-return horizons.