Fuzzy analysis: a vague way of dealing with uncertainty in real estate analysis?

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not entirely certain data required in the course of the problem..." uses the application of fuzzy logic. This paper discusses and demonstrates the terminology and methodology of fuzzy analysis. In particular it attempts a comparison of the procedures with those used in 'conventional' risk analysis approaches and critically investigates whether a fuzzy approach offers an alternative to the use of probability based analysis for dealing with aspects of risk and uncertainty in real estate analysis

Fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images using support value transform and fuzzy combination rules

Infrared polarization and intensity imagery provide complementary and discriminative information in image understanding and interpretation. In this paper, a novel fusion method is proposed by effectively merging the information with various combination rules. It makes use of both low-frequency and highfrequency images components from support value transform (SVT), and applies fuzzy logic in the combination process. Images (both infrared polarization and intensity images) to be fused are firstly decomposed into low-frequency component images and support value image sequences by the SVT. Then the low-frequency component images are combined using a fuzzy combination rule blending three sub-combination methods of (1) region feature maximum, (2) region feature weighting average, and (3) pixel value maximum; and the support value image sequences are merged using a fuzzy combination rule fusing two sub-combination methods of (1) pixel energy maximum and (2) region feature weighting. With the variables of two newly defined features, i.e. the low-frequency difference feature for low-frequency component images and the support-value difference feature for support value image sequences, trapezoidal membership functions are proposed and developed in tuning the fuzzy fusion process. Finally the fused image is obtained by inverse SVT operations. Experimental results of visual inspection and quantitative evaluation both indicate the superiority of the proposed method to its counterparts in image fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images.

A fuzzy rule-based decision support system for Duodopa treatment in Parkinson

A decision support system (DSS) was implemented based on a fuzzy logic inference system (FIS) to provide assistance in dose alteration of Duodopa infusion in patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease, using data from motor state assessments and dosage. Three-tier architecture with an object oriented approach was used. The DSS has a web enabled graphical user interface that presents alerts indicating non optimal dosage and states, new recommendations, namely typical advice with typical dose and statistical measurements. One data set was used for design and tuning of the FIS and another data set was used for evaluating performance compared with actual given dose. Overall goodness-of-fit for the new patients (design data) was 0.65 and for the ongoing patients (evaluation data) 0.98. User evaluation is now ongoing. The system could work as an assistant to clinical staff for Duodopa treatment in advanced Parkinson’s disease.

Appropriate choice of aggregation operators in fuzzy decision support systems

Fuzzy logic provides a mathematical formalism for a unified treatment of vagueness and imprecision that are ever present in decision support and expert systems in many areas. The choice of aggregation operators is crucial to the behavior of the system that is intended to mimic human decision making. This paper discusses how aggregation operators can be selected and adjusted to fit empirical data—a series of test cases. Both parametric and nonparametric regression are considered and compared. A practical application of the proposed methods to electronic implementation of clinical guidelines is presented

Fuzzy neural networks for control of dynamic systems

This thesis provides a unified and comprehensive treatment of the fuzzy neural networks as the intelligent controllers. This work has been motivated by a need to develop the solid control methodologies capable of coping with the complexity, the nonlinearity, the interactions, and the time variance of the processes under control. In addition, the dynamic behavior of such processes is strongly influenced by the disturbances and the noise, and such processes are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. Therefore, it is important to integrate an intelligent component to increase the control system ability to extract the functional relationships from the process and to change such relationships to improve the control precision, that is, to display the learning and the reasoning abilities. The objective of this thesis was to develop a self-organizing learning controller for above processes by using a combination of the fuzzy logic and the neural networks. An on-line, direct fuzzy neural controller using the process input-output measurement data and the reference model with both structural and parameter tuning has been developed to fulfill the above objective. A number of practical issues were considered. This includes the dynamic construction of the controller in order to alleviate the bias/variance dilemma, the universal approximation property, and the requirements of the locality and the linearity in the parameters. Several important issues in the intelligent control were also considered such as the overall control scheme, the requirement of the persistency of excitation and the bounded learning rates of the controller for the overall closed loop stability. Other important issues considered in this thesis include the dependence of the generalization ability and the optimization methods on the data distribution, and the requirements for the on-line learning and the feedback structure of the controller. Fuzzy inference specific issues such as the influence of the choice of the defuzzification method, T-norm operator and the membership function on the overall performance of the controller were also discussed. In addition, the e-completeness requirement and the use of the fuzzy similarity measure were also investigated. Main emphasis of the thesis has been on the applications to the real-world problems such as the industrial process control. The applicability of the proposed method has been demonstrated through the empirical studies on several real-world control problems of industrial complexity. This includes the temperature and the number-average molecular weight control in the continuous stirred tank polymerization reactor, and the torsional vibration, the eccentricity, the hardness and the thickness control in the cold rolling mills. Compared to the traditional linear controllers and the dynamically constructed neural network, the proposed fuzzy neural controller shows the highest promise as an effective approach to such nonlinear multi-variable control problems with the strong influence of the disturbances and the noise on the dynamic process behavior. In addition, the applicability of the proposed method beyond the strictly control area has also been investigated, in particular to the data mining and the knowledge elicitation. When compared to the decision tree method and the pruned neural network method for the data mining, the proposed fuzzy neural network is able to achieve a comparable accuracy with a more compact set of rules. In addition, the performance of the proposed fuzzy neural network is much better for the classes with the low occurrences in the data set compared to the decision tree method. Thus, the proposed fuzzy neural network may be very useful in situations where the important information is contained in a small fraction of the available data.

Fuzzy concepts and formal methods

It has been recognised that formal methods are useful as a modelling tool in requirements engineering. Specification languages such as Z permit the precise and unambiguous modelling of system properties and behaviour. However some system problems, particularly those drawn from the information systems problem domain, may be difficult to model in crisp or precise terms. It may also be desirable that formal modelling should commence as early as possible, even when our understanding of parts of the problem domain is only approximate. This thesis suggests fuzzy set theory as a possible representation scheme for this imprecision or approximation. A fuzzy logic toolkit that defines the operators, measures and modifiers necessary for the manipulation of fuzzy sets and relations is developed. The toolkit contains a detailed set of laws that demonstrate the properties of the definitions when applied to partial set membership. It also provides a set of laws that establishes an isomorphism between the toolkit notation and that of conventional Z when applied to boolean sets and relations. The thesis also illustrates how the fuzzy logic toolkit can be applied in the problem domains of interest. Several examples are presented and discussed including the representation of imprecise concepts as fuzzy sets and relations, system requirements as a series of linguistically quantified propositions, the modelling of conflict and agreement in terms of fuzzy sets and the partial specification of a fuzzy expert system. The thesis concludes with a consideration of potential areas for future research arising from the work presented here.

Fuzzy well-being in Pacific Asia

This paper develops a framework that uses fuzzy-set theory to measure human well-being. Fuzzy sets allow for gradual transition from one state to another while also allowing one to incorporate rules and goals, and hence are more appropriate for measuring outcomes that are ambiguous. Such ambiguity is an inherent characteristic of cross-country achieved well-being assessments. This framework is used to provide a fuzzy representation of the well known Human Development Index (HDI) and its three components. Fuzzy HDI estimates for 14 Pacific Asian countries are provided and compared with non-fuzzy estimates. Quite large differences in rankings emerge. The paper concludes by suggesting that fuzzy measures should be used more widely to measure achieved well-being outcomes.

Backward modelling and look-ahead fuzzy energy management controller for a parallel hybrid vehicle

This paper focuses on a parallel hybrid electric vehicle. It first develops a model for the vehicle using the backward-looking approach where the flow of energy starts from wheels and spreads towards engine and electric motor. Next, a fuzzy logic-based strategy is developed to control the operation of the vehicle. The objectives of the controller include managing the energy flow from engine and electric motor, controlling transmission ratio, adjusting speed, and sustaining battery's state of charge. The controller examines current vehicle speed, demand torque, slope difference, state of charge of battery, and engine and electric motor rotation speeds. Then, it determines the best values for continuous variable transmission ratio, speed, and torque. A slope window scheme is also developed to take into account the look-ahead slope information and determine the best vehicle speed for better fuel economy. The developed model and control strategy are simulated. The simulation results are presented and discussed. It is shown that the use of the proposed fuzzy controller reduces fuel consumption.

A guided rule reduction system for prioritization of failures in fuzzy FMEA

Traditional Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) utilizes the Risk Priority Number (RPN) ranking system to evaluate the risk level of failures, to rank failures, and to prioritize actions. Although this method is simple, it suffers from several shortcomings. In this paper, use of fuzzy inference techniques for RPN determination in an attempt to overcome the weaknesses associated with the traditional RPN ranking system is investigated. However, the fuzzy RPN model, suffers from the combinatorial rule explosion problem. As a result, a generic rule reduction approach, i.e. the Guided Rule Reduction System (GRRS), is proposed to reduce the number of rules that need to be provided by users during the fuzzy RPN modeling process. The proposed approach is evaluated using real-world case studies pertaining to semiconductor manufacturing. The results are analyzed, and implications of the proposed approach are discussed.

Fuzzy FMEA with a guided rules reduction system for prioritization of failures

Purpose – To propose a generic method to simplify the fuzzy logic-based failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) methodology by reducing the number of rules that needs to be provided by FMEA users for the fuzzy risk priority number (RPN) modeling process.

Design/methodology/approach – The fuzzy RPN approach typically requires a large number of rules, and it is a tedious task to obtain a full set of rules. The larger the number of rules provided by the users, the better the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy RPN model. As the number of rules required increases, ease of use of the model decreases since the users have to provide a lot of information/rules for the modeling process. A guided rules reduction system (GRRS) is thus proposed to regulate the number of rules required during the fuzzy RPN modeling process. The effectiveness of the proposed GRRS is investigated using three real-world case studies in a semiconductor manufacturing process.

Findings – In this paper, we argued that not all the rules are actually required in the fuzzy RPN model. Eliminating some of the rules does not necessarily lead to a significant change in the model output. However, some of the rules are vitally important and cannot be ignored. The proposed GRRS is able to provide guidelines to the users which rules are required and which can be eliminated. By employing the GRRS, the users do not need to provide all the rules, but only the important ones when constructing the fuzzy RPN model. The results obtained from the case studies demonstrate that the proposed GRRS is able to reduce the number of rules required and, at the same time, to maintain the ability of the Fuzzy RPN model to produce predictions that are in agreement with experts' knowledge in risk evaluation, ranking, and prioritization tasks.

Research limitations/implications – The proposed GRRS is limited to FMEA systems that utilize the fuzzy RPN model.

Practical implications – The proposed GRRS is able to simplify the fuzzy logic-based FMEA methodology and make it possible to be implemented in real environments.

Originality/value – The value of the current paper is on the proposal of a GRRS for rule reduction to enhance the practical use of the fuzzy RPN model in real environments.

Fuzzy simulation of pedestrian walking path considering local environmental stimuli

Pedestrian steering activity is a perception-based decision making process that involves interaction with the surrounding environment and insight into environmental stimuli. There are many stimuli within the environment that influence pedestrian wayfinding behaviour during walking activities. However, compelling factors such as individual physical and psychological characteristics and trip intention cause the behaviour become a very fuzzy concept. In this paper pedestrian steering behaviour is modelled using a fuzzy logic approach. The objective of this research is to simulate pedestrian walking paths in indoor public environments during normal and non-panic situations. The proposed algorithm introduces a fuzzy logic framework to predict the impact of perceived attractive and repulsive stimuli, within the pedestrian's field of view, on movement direction. Environmental stimuli are quantified using the social force method. The algorithm is implemented in a simulated area of an office corridor consist of a printer and exit door. Stochastic simulation using the proposed fuzzy algorithm generated realistic walking trajectories, contour map of dynamic change of environmental effects in each step of movement and high flow areas in the corridor.