Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Anti-tumor necrosis factor drug survival in axial spondyloarthritis is independent of the classification criteria.

To compare the impact of meeting specific classification criteria [modified New York (mNY), European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG), and Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria] on anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drug retention, and to determine predictive factors of better drug survival. All patients fulfilling the ESSG criteria for axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) with available data on the axial ASAS and mNY criteria, and who had received at least one anti-TNF treatment were retrospectively retrieved in a single academic institution in Switzerland. Drug retention was computed using survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier), adjusted for potential confounders. Of the 137 patients classified as having axial SpA using the ESSG criteria, 112 also met the ASAS axial SpA criteria, and 77 fulfilled the mNY criteria. Drug retention rates at 12 and 24 months for the first biologic therapy were not significantly different between the diagnostic groups. Only the small ASAS non-classified axial SpA group (25 patients) showed a nonsignificant trend toward shorter drug survival. Elevated CRP level, but not the presence of bone marrow edema on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, was associated with significantly better drug retention (OR 7.9, ICR 4-14). In this cohort, anti-TNF drug survival was independent of the classification criteria. Elevated CRP level, but not positive MRI, was associated with better drug retention.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Dose-dependent positive association between cigarette smoking, abdominal obesity and body fat: cross-sectional data from a population-based survey.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index than non-smokers, smoking may favour abdominal body fat accumulation. To our knowledge, no population-based studies have assessed the relationship between smoking and body fat composition. We assessed the association between cigarette smoking and waist circumference, body fat, and body-mass index. METHODS: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured among 6,123 Caucasians (ages 35-75) from a cross-sectional population-based study in Switzerland. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference>=102 cm for men and >=88 cm for women. Body fat (percent total body weight) was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Age- and sex-specific body fat cut-offs were used to define excess body fat. Cigarettes smoked per day were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Age-adjusted means and odds ratios were calculated using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Current smokers (29% of men and 24% of women) had lower mean waist circumference, body fat percentage, and body-mass index compared with non-smokers. Age-adjusted mean waist circumference and body fat increased with cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. The association between cigarettes smoked per day and body-mass index was non-significant. Compared with light smokers, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for abdominal obesity in men was 1.28 (0.78-2.10) for moderate smokers and 1.94 (1.15-3.27) for heavy smokers (P=0.03 for trend), and 1.07 (0.72-1.58) and 2.15 (1.26-3.64) in female moderate and heavy smokers, respectively (P<0.01 for trend). Compared with light smokers, the OR for excess body fat in men was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58-1.92) for moderate smokers and 1.15 (0.60-2.20) for heavy smokers (P=0.75 for trend) and 1.34 (0.89-2.00) and 2.11 (1.25-3.57), respectively in women (P=0.07 for trend). CONCLUSION: Among smokers, cigarettes smoked per day were positively associated with central fat accumulation, particularly in women.

Spontaneous subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse: presentation of four cases

BACKGROUND: Subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse is a benign entity characterized by orbital fat herniation through a dehiscence in Tenon's capsule, usually between the superior and lateral recti muscles. It is often associated with ocular trauma or surgery, although spontaneous cases have also been reported with a predilection for obese individuals. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of four subconjunctival orbital-fat prolapse cases with no history of ocular surgery or trauma was performed. A trans-conjunctival surgical approach with Tenon's capsule repair was offered to all subjects. Differential diagnosis is discussed. RESULTS: The diagnosis of subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse was confirmed in all cases by histopathological examination. Functional and aesthetic postoperative results were excellent, with no recurrences during follow-up, for all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although rare, subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse should be recognized. Surgical management offers excellent results.

Failure of dietary fat intake to promote fat oxidation: a factor favoring the development of obesity.

Seven young men spent three nights and 2 d in a respiration chamber where their rates of energy expenditure and substrate oxidation were continuously measured by indirect calorimetry. During the first 24 h they ingested a mixed maintenance diet containing 35% of calories as fat. An additional amount of 106 +/- 6 g fat/24 h (means +/- SD) was added to this diet during the following 36 h. The fat supplement (987 +/- 55 kcal/d) did not alter 24-h energy expenditure (2783 +/- 232 vs 2820 +/- 284 kcal/d) and failed to promote the use of fat as a metabolic fuel (fat oxidation 1032 +/- 205 vs 1042 +/- 205 kcal/d). The overall energy balance was closely correlated with the fat balance (r = 0.96, p less than 0.001) but not with the carbohydrate balance (r = -0.12, NS). These data indicate that substantial imbalances between intake and oxidation are much more likely for fat than for carbohydrate.

Imaging of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia.

The aim of this study was to illustrate the chest radiographs (CR) and CT imaging features and sequential findings of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia. Among 30 children admitted in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit for persistent or progressive pneumonia, respiratory distress or sepsis despite adequate antibiotic therapy, a study group of 9 children (5 girls and 4 boys; mean age 4 years) who had the radiographic features and CT criteria for cavitary necrosis complicated pneumonia was identified. The pathogens identified were Streptococcus pneumoniae( n=4), Aspergillus( n=2), Legionella( n=1), and Staphylococcus aureus( n=1). Sequential CR and CT scans were retrospectively reviewed. Follow-up CR and CT were evaluated for persistent abnormalities. Chest radiographs showed consolidations in 8 of the 9 patients. On CT examination, cavitary necrosis was localized to 1 lobe in 2 patients and 7 patients showed multilobar or bilateral areas of cavitary necrosis. In 3 patients of 9, the cavitary necrosis was initially shown on CT and visualization by CR was delayed by a time span varying from 5 to 9 days. In all patients with cavities, a mean number of five cavities were seen on antero-posterior CR, contrasting with the multiple cavities seen on CT. Parapneumonic effusions were shown by CR in 3 patients and in 5 patients by CT. Bronchopleural fistulae were demonstrated by CT alone ( n=3). No purulent pericarditis was demonstrated. The CT scan displayed persistent residual pneumatoceles of the left lower lobe in 2 patients. Computed tomography is able to define a more specific pattern of abnormalities than conventional CR in children with necrotizing pneumonia and allows an earlier diagnosis of this rapidly progressing condition. Lung necrosis and cavitation may also be associated with Aspergillus or Legionella pneumonia in the pediatric population.

The distribution of congenital anomalies within the VACTERL association among tumor necrosis factor antagonist-exposed pregnancies is similar to the general population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the distribution of congenital anomalies within the VACTERL association (vertebral defects, anal atresia, cardiac, tracheoesophageal, renal, and limb abnormalities) between patients exposed to tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) antagonist and the general population. METHODS: Analysis for comparison of proportional differences to a previous publication between anomaly subgroups, according to subgroup definitions of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT), a population-based database. RESULTS: Most EUROCAT subgroups belonging to the VACTERL association contained only one or 2 records of TNF-α antagonist exposure, so comparison of proportions was imprecise. Only the category "limb abnormalities" showed a significantly higher proportion in the general population. CONCLUSION: The high number of congenital anomalies belonging to the VACTERL association from a report of pregnancies exposed to TNF-α antagonists could not be confirmed using a population-based congenital anomaly database.

Tumor necrosis factor-α in human American tegumentary leishmaniasis

Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) is a cytokine produced by activated macrophages and other cells. In order to verify whether the serum levels of TNF-α in American tegumentary leishmaniasis patients are associated with the process of cure or aggravation of the disease, 41 patients were studied: 26 cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and 15 of mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL). During active disease the serum levels of TNF-α of MCL patients were significantly higher than those of CL patients and control subjects (healthy individuals and cutaneous lesions from other etiologies). The MCL patients had serum titers of TNF-α significantly lower at the end of antimonial therapy than before therapy. After a six-month follow-up, the MCL patients had serum levels of TNF-α similar to those observed at the end of the therapy as well as to those of CL patients and control subjects. No significant variation in the serum levels of TNF-α was observed in CL patients throughout the study period (before, at the end of therapy and after a six-month follow-up). The possible relationship between the high TNF-α serum levels and severity of the disease is discussed.

Maturation of marginal zone and follicular B cells requires B cell activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family and is independent of B cell maturation antigen.

B cells undergo a complex series of maturation and selection steps in the bone marrow and spleen during differentiation into mature immune effector cells. The tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family member B cell activating factor of the TNF family (BAFF) (BLyS/TALL-1) plays an important role in B cell homeostasis. BAFF and its close homologue a proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL) have both been shown to interact with at least two receptors, B cell maturation antigen (BCMA) and transmembrane activator and cyclophilin ligand interactor (TACI), however their relative contribution in transducing BAFF signals in vivo remains unclear. To functionally inactivate both BAFF and APRIL, mice transgenic for a soluble form of TACI were generated. They display a developmental block of B cell maturation in the periphery, leading to a severe depletion of marginal zone and follicular B2 B cells, but not of peritoneal B1 B cells. In contrast, mice transgenic for a soluble form of BCMA, which binds APRIL, have no detectable B cell phenotype. This demonstrates a crucial role for BAFF in B cell maturation and strongly suggests that it signals via a BCMA-independent pathway and in an APRIL-dispensable way.

The effect of ethanol on fat storage in healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Ethanol can account for up to 10 percent of the energy intake of persons who consume moderate amounts of ethanol. Its effect on energy metabolism, however, is not known. METHODS: We studied the effect of ethanol on 24-hour substrate-oxidation rates in eight normal men during two 48-hour sessions in an indirect-calorimetry chamber. In each session, the first 24 hours served as the control period. On the second day of one session, an additional 25 percent of the total energy requirement was added as ethanol (mean [+/- SD], 96 +/- 4 g per day); during the other session, 25 percent of the total energy requirement was replaced by ethanol, which was isocalorically substituted for lipids and carbohydrates. RESULTS: Both the addition of ethanol and the isocaloric substitution of ethanol for other foods reduced 24-hour lipid oxidation. The respective mean (+/- SE) decreases were 49.4 +/- 6.7 and 44.1 +/- 9.3 g per day (i.e., reductions of 36 +/- 3 percent and 31 +/- 7 percent from the oxidation rate during the control day; P less than 0.001 and P less than 0.0025). This effect occurred only during the daytime period (8:30 a.m. to 11:30 p.m.), when ethanol was consumed and metabolized. Neither the addition of ethanol to the diet nor the isocaloric substitution of ethanol for other foods significantly altered the oxidation of carbohydrate or protein. Both regimens including ethanol produced an increase in 24-hour energy expenditure (7 +/- 1 percent with the addition of ethanol, P less than 0.001; 4 +/- 1 percent with the substitution of ethanol for other energy sources, P less than 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Ethanol, either added to the diet or substituted for other foods, increases 24-hour energy expenditure and decreases lipid oxidation. Habitual consumption of ethanol in excess of energy needs probably favors lipid storage and weight gain.

Interactions of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and TNF receptor family members in the mouse and human.

Ligands of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily (TNFSF) (4-1BBL, APRIL, BAFF, CD27L, CD30L, CD40L, EDA1, EDA2, FasL, GITRL, LIGHT, lymphotoxin alpha, lymphotoxin alphabeta, OX40L, RANKL, TL1A, TNF, TWEAK, and TRAIL) bind members of the TNF receptor superfamily (TNFRSF). A comprehensive survey of ligand-receptor interactions was performed using a flow cytometry-based assay. All ligands engaged between one and five receptors, whereas most receptors only bound one to three ligands. The receptors DR6, RELT, TROY, NGFR, and mouse TNFRH3 did not interact with any of the known TNFSF ligands, suggesting that they either bind other types of ligands, function in a ligand-independent manner, or bind ligands that remain to be identified. The study revealed that ligand-receptor pairs are either cross-reactive between human and mouse (e.g. Tweak/Fn14, RANK/RANKL), strictly species-specific (GITR/GITRL), or partially species-specific (e.g. OX40/OX40L, CD40/CD40L). Interestingly, the receptor binding patterns of lymphotoxin alpha and alphabeta are redundant in the human but not in the mouse system. Ligand oligomerization allowed detection of weak interactions, such as that of human TNF with mouse TNFR2. In addition, mouse APRIL exists as two different splice variants differing by a single amino acid. Although human APRIL does not interact with BAFF-R, the shorter variant of mouse APRIL exhibits weak but detectable binding to mouse BAFF-R.

Influence of CRTC1 Polymorphisms on Body Mass Index and Fat Mass in Psychiatric Patients and the General Adult Population.

IMPORTANCE There is a high prevalence of obesity in psychiatric patients, possibly leading to metabolic complications and reducing life expectancy. The CREB-regulated transcription coactivator 1 (CRTC1) gene is involved in energy balance and obesity in animal models, but its role in human obesity is unknown. OBJECTIVE To determine whether polymorphisms within the CRTC1 gene are associated with adiposity markers in psychiatric patients and the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective and prospective data analysis and population-based samples at Lausanne and Geneva university hospitals in Switzerland and a private clinic in Lausanne, Switzerland. The effect of 3 CRTC1 polymorphisms on body mass index (BMI) and/or fat mass was investigated in a discovery cohort of psychiatric outpatients taking weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs (sample 1, n = 152). The CRTC1 variant that was significantly associated with BMI and survived Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparison was then replicated in 2 independent psychiatric samples (sample 2, n = 174 and sample 3, n = 118) and 2 white population-based samples (sample 4, n = 5338 and sample 5, n = 123 865). INTERVENTION Noninterventional studies. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Difference in BMI and/or fat mass between CRTC1 genotype groups. RESULTS Among the CRTC1 variants tested in the first psychiatric sample, only rs3746266A>G was associated with BMI (Padjusted = .003). In the 3 psychiatric samples, carriers of the rs3746266 G allele had a lower BMI than noncarriers (AA genotype) (sample 1, P = .001; sample 2, P = .05; and sample 3, P = .0003). In the combined analysis, excluding patients taking other weight gain-inducing drugs, G allele carriers (n = 98) had a 1.81-kg/m2 lower BMI than noncarriers (n = 226; P < .0001). The strongest association was observed in women younger than 45 years, with a 3.87-kg/m2 lower BMI in G allele carriers (n = 25) compared with noncarriers (n = 48; P < .0001), explaining 9% of BMI variance. In the population-based samples, the T allele of rs6510997C>T (a proxy of the rs3746266 G allele; r2 = 0.7) was associated with lower BMI (sample 5, n = 123 865; P = .01) and fat mass (sample 4, n = 5338; P = .03). The strongest association with fat mass was observed in premenopausal women (n = 1192; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings suggest that CRTC1 contributes to the genetics of human obesity in psychiatric patients and the general population. Identification of high-risk subjects could contribute to a better individualization of the pharmacological treatment in psychiatry.