963 resultados para Extinction Probabilities
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Fluoroindate glasses containing 1, 2, 3, and 4 mol% ErF3 were prepared in a dry box under an argon atmosphere. Absorption spectra of these glasses at room temperature were obtained. The Judd-Ofelt parameters Ωλ (λ = 2, 4, 6) for f-f transitions of Er3+ ions as well as transition probabilities, branching ratios, radiative lifetimes, and peak cross-sections for stimulated emission of each band were determined. The concentration effect on the intensities is analyzed. The optical properties of the fluoroindate glasses doped with Er3+ ions are compared with those of other glasses described in the literature. © 1995.
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The relative contribution of migration of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 (AG-3) on infested potato seed tubers originating from production areas in Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin (source population) to the genetic diversity and structure of populations of R. solani AG-3 in North Carolina (NC) soil (recipient population) was examined. The frequency of alleles detected by multilocus polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphisms, heterozygosity at individual loci, and gametic phase disequilibrium between all pairs of loci were determined for subpopulations of R. solani AG-3 from eight sources of potato seed tubers and from five soils in NC. Analysis of molecular variation revealed little variation between seed source and NC recipient soil populations or between subpopulations within each region. Analysis of population data with a Bayesian-based statistical method previously developed for detecting migration in human populations suggested that six multilocus genotypes from the NC soil population had a statistically significant probability of being migrants from the northern source population. The one-way (unidirectional) migration of genotypes of R. solani AG-3 into NC on infested potato seed tubers from Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin provides a plausible explanation for the lack of genetic subdivision (differentiation) between populations of the pathogen in NC soils or between the northern source and the NC recipient soil populations.
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Local extinctions have cascading effects on ecosystem functions, yet little is known about the potential for the rapid evolutionary change of species in human-modified scenarios. We show that the functional extinction of large-gape seed dispersers in the Brazilian Atlantic forest is associated with the consistent reduction of the seed size of a keystone palm species. Among 22 palm populations, areas deprived of large avian frugivores for several decades present smaller seeds than nondefaunated forests, with negative consequences for palm regeneration. Coalescence and phenotypic selection models indicate that seed size reduction most likely occurred within the past 100 years, associated with human-driven fragmentation. The fast-paced defaunation of large vertebrates is most likely causing unprecedented changes in the evolutionary trajectories and community composition of tropical forests.
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Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations. © 2013 Fonseca et al.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7 fb-1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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There is now an extensive literature on extinction debt following deforestation. However, the potential for species credit in landscapes that have experienced a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover has received little attention. Both delayed responses should depend on current landscape forest cover and on species life-history traits, such as longevity, as short-lived species are likely to respond faster than long-lived species. We evaluated the effects of historical and present-day local forest cover on two vertebrate groups with different longevities understorey birds and non-flying small mammals - in forest patches at three Atlantic Forest landscapes. Our work investigated how the probability of extinction debt and species credit varies (i) amongst landscapes with different proportions of forest cover and distinct trajectories of forest cover change, and (ii) between taxa with different life spans. Our results suggest that the existence of extinction debt and species credit, as well as the potential for their future payment and/or receipt, is not only related to forest cover trajectory but also to the amount of remaining forest cover at the landscape scale. Moreover, differences in bird and small mammal life spans seem to be insufficient to affect differently their probability of showing time-delayed responses to landscape change. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the need for considering not only the trajectory of deforestation/regeneration but also the amount of forest cover at landscape scale when investigating time-delayed responses to landscape change. As many landscapes are experiencing a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover, understanding the association of extinction and immigration processes, as well as their interactions with the landscape dynamic, is a key factor to plan conservation and restoration actions in human-altered landscapes.
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Communities in fragmented landscapes are often assumed to be structured by species extinction due to habitat loss, which has led to extensive use of the species-area relationship (SAR) in fragmentation studies. However, the use of the SAR presupposes that habitat loss leads species to extinction but does not allow for extinction to be offset by colonization of disturbed-habitat specialists. Moreover, the use of SAR assumes that species richness is a good proxy of community changes in fragmented landscapes. Here, we assessed how communities dwelling in fragmented landscapes are influenced by habitat loss at multiple scales; then we estimated the ability of models ruled by SAR and by species turnover in successfully predicting changes in community composition, and asked whether species richness is indeed an informative community metric. To address these issues, we used a data set consisting of 140 bird species sampled in 65 patches, from six landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. We compared empirical patterns against simulations of over 8 million communities structured by different magnitudes of the power-law SAR and with species-specific rules to assign species to sites. Empirical results showed that, while bird community composition was strongly influenced by habitat loss at the patch and landscape scale, species richness remained largely unaffected. Modeling results revealed that the compositional changes observed in the Atlantic Forest bird metacommunity were only matched by models with either unrealistic magnitudes of the SAR or by models ruled by species turnover, akin to what would be observed along natural gradients. We show that, in the presence of such compositional turnover, species richness is poorly correlated with species extinction, and z values of the SAR strongly underestimate the effects of habitat loss. We suggest that the observed compositional changes are driven by each species reaching its individual extinction threshold: either a threshold of forest cover for species that disappear with habitat loss, or of matrix cover for species that benefit from habitat loss.
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This paper studies the average control problem of discrete-time Markov Decision Processes (MDPs for short) with general state space, Feller transition probabilities, and possibly non-compact control constraint sets A(x). Two hypotheses are considered: either the cost function c is strictly unbounded or the multifunctions A(r)(x) = {a is an element of A(x) : c(x, a) <= r} are upper-semicontinuous and compact-valued for each real r. For these two cases we provide new results for the existence of a solution to the average-cost optimality equality and inequality using the vanishing discount approach. We also study the convergence of the policy iteration approach under these conditions. It should be pointed out that we do not make any assumptions regarding the convergence and the continuity of the limit function generated by the sequence of relative difference of the alpha-discounted value functions and the Poisson equations as often encountered in the literature. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Aims. We studied four young star clusters to characterise their anomalous extinction or variable reddening and asses whether they could be due to contamination by either dense clouds or circumstellar effects. Methods. We evaluated the extinction law (R-V) by adopting two methods: (i) the use of theoretical expressions based on the colour-excess of stars with known spectral type; and (ii) the analysis of two-colour diagrams, where the slope of the observed colour distribution was compared to the normal distribution. An algorithm to reproduce the zero-age main-sequence (ZAMS) reddened colours was developed to derive the average visual extinction (A(V)) that provides the closest fit to the observational data. The structure of the clouds was evaluated by means of a statistical fractal analysis, designed to compare their geometric structure with the spatial distribution of the cluster members. Results. The cluster NGC 6530 is the only object of our sample affected by anomalous extinction. On average, the other clusters suffer normal extinction, but several of their members, mainly in NGC 2264, seem to have high R-V, probably because of circumstellar effects. The ZAMS fitting provides A(V) values that are in good agreement with those found in the literature. The fractal analysis shows that NGC 6530 has a centrally concentrated distribution of stars that differs from the substructures found in the density distribution of the cloud projected in the A(V) map, suggesting that the original cloud was changed by the cluster formation. However, the fractal dimension and statistical parameters of Berkeley 86, NGC 2244, and NGC 2264 indicate that there is a good cloud-cluster correlation, when compared to other works based on an artificial distribution of points.
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Stratosphärische Partikel sind typischerweise mit dem bloßen Auge nicht wahrnehmbar. Dennoch haben sie einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die Strahlungsbilanz der Erde und die heteorogene Chemie in der Stratosphäre. Kontinuierliche, vertikal aufgelöste, globale Datensätze sind daher essenziell für das Verständnis physikalischer und chemischer Prozesse in diesem Teil der Atmosphäre. Beginnend mit den Messungen des zweiten Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM II) Instruments im Jahre 1978 existiert eine kontinuierliche Zeitreihe für stratosphärische Aerosol-Extinktionsprofile, welche von Messinstrumenten wie dem zweiten Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II), dem SCIAMACHY, dem OSIRIS und dem OMPS bis heute fortgeführt wird. rnrnIn dieser Arbeit wird ein neu entwickelter Algorithmus vorgestellt, der das sogenannte ,,Zwiebel-Schäl Prinzip'' verwendet, um Extinktionsprofile zwischen 12 und 33 km zu berechnen. Dafür wird der Algorithmus auf Radianzprofile einzelner Wellenlängen angewandt, die von SCIAMACHY in der Limb-Geometrie gemessen wurden. SCIAMACHY's einzigartige Methode abwechselnder Limb- und Nadir-Messungen bietet den Vorteil, hochaufgelöste vertikale und horizontale Messungen mit zeitlicher und räumlicher Koinzidenz durchführen zu können. Die dadurch erlangten Zusatzinformationen können verwendet werden, um die Effekte von horizontalen Gradienten entlang der Sichtlinie des Messinstruments zu korrigieren, welche vor allem kurz nach Vulkanausbrüchen und für polare Stratosphärenwolken beobachtet werden. Wenn diese Gradienten für die Berechnung von Extinktionsprofilen nicht beachtet werden, so kann dies dazu führen, dass sowohl die optischen Dicke als auch die Höhe von Vulkanfahnen oder polarer Stratosphärenwolken unterschätzt werden. In dieser Arbeit wird ein Verfahren vorgestellt, welches mit Hilfe von dreidimensionalen Strahlungstransportsimulationen und horizontal aufgelösten Datensätzen die berechneten Extinktionsprofile korrigiert.rnrnVergleichsstudien mit den Ergebnissen von Satelliten- (SAGE II) und Ballonmessungen zeigen, dass Extinktionsprofile von stratosphärischen Partikeln mit Hilfe des neu entwickelten Algorithmus berechnet werden können und gut mit bestehenden Datensätzen übereinstimmen. Untersuchungen des Nabro Vulkanausbruchs 2011 und des Auftretens von polaren Stratosphärenwolken in der südlichen Hemisphäre zeigen, dass das Korrekturverfahren für horizontale Gradienten die berechneten Extinktionsprofile deutlich verbessert.