Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

A design science research roadmap

This paper proposes and synthesizes from previous design science(DS) methodological literature a structured and detailed DS Roadmap for the conduct of DS research. The Roadmap is a general guide for researchers to carry out DS research by suggesting reasonably detailed activities.Though highly tentative, it is believed the Roadmap usefully inter-relates many otherwise seemingly disparate, overlapping or conflicting concepts. It is hoped the DS Roadmap will aid in the planning, execution and communication of DS research,while also attracting constructive criticism, improvements and extensions. A key distinction of the Roadmap from other DS research methods is its breadth of coverage of DS research aspects and activities; its detail and scope. We demonstrate and evaluate the Roadmap by presenting two case studies in terms of the DS Roadmap.

Soundness of workflow nets: classification, decidability, and analysis

Workflow nets, a particular class of Petri nets, have become one of the standard ways to model and analyze workflows. Typically, they are used as an abstraction of the workflow that is used to check the so-called soundness property. This property guarantees the absence of livelocks, deadlocks, and other anomalies that can be detected without domain knowledge. Several authors have proposed alternative notions of soundness and have suggested to use more expressive languages, e.g., models with cancellations or priorities. This paper provides an overview of the different notions of soundness and investigates these in the presence of different extensions of workflow nets.We will show that the eight soundness notions described in the literature are decidable for workflow nets. However, most extensions will make all of these notions undecidable. These new results show the theoretical limits of workflow verification. Moreover, we discuss some of the analysis approaches described in the literature.

Reduction rules for reset/inhibitor nets

Reset/inhibitor nets are Petri nets extended with reset arcs and inhibitor arcs. These extensions can be used to model cancellation and blocking. A reset arc allows a transition to remove all tokens from a certain place when the transition fires. An inhibitor arc can stop a transition from being enabled if the place contains one or more tokens. While reset/inhibitor nets increase the expressive power of Petri nets, they also result in increased complexity of analysis techniques. One way of speeding up Petri net analysis is to apply reduction rules. Unfortunately, many of the rules defined for classical Petri nets do not hold in the presence of reset and/or inhibitor arcs. Moreover, new rules can be added. This is the first paper systematically presenting a comprehensive set of reduction rules for reset/inhibitor nets. These rules are liveness and boundedness preserving and are able to dramatically reduce models and their state spaces. It can be observed that most of the modeling languages used in practice have features related to cancellation and blocking. Therefore, this work is highly relevant for all kinds of application areas where analysis is currently intractable.

rac-2-Aminopyridinium cis-2-carboxycyclohexane-1-carboxylate

In the structure of the title compound, C5H7N2+ C8H11O4-, the cis-anions associate through head-to-tail carboxylic acid carboxyl O-H...O hydrogen-bonds [graph set C(7)], forming chains which extend along c and are inter-linked through the carboxyl groups forming cyclic R2/2(8) associations with the pyridinium and an amine H donor of the cation. Further amine...carboxyl N-H...O interactions form enlarged centrosymmetric rings [graph set R4/4(18)] and extensions down b to give a three-dimensional structure.

Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation

Gradient-based approaches to direct policy search in reinforcement learning have received much recent attention as a means to solve problems of partial observability and to avoid some of the problems associated with policy degradation in value-function methods. In this paper we introduce GPOMDP, a simulation-based algorithm for generating a biased estimate of the gradient of the average reward in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) controlled by parameterized stochastic policies. A similar algorithm was proposed by Kimura, Yamamura, and Kobayashi (1995). The algorithm's chief advantages are that it requires storage of only twice the number of policy parameters, uses one free parameter β ∈ [0,1) (which has a natural interpretation in terms of bias-variance trade-off), and requires no knowledge of the underlying state. We prove convergence of GPOMDP, and show how the correct choice of the parameter β is related to the mixing time of the controlled POMDP. We briefly describe extensions of GPOMDP to controlled Markov chains, continuous state, observation and control spaces, multiple-agents, higher-order derivatives, and a version for training stochastic policies with internal states. In a companion paper (Baxter, Bartlett, & Weaver, 2001) we show how the gradient estimates generated by GPOMDP can be used in both a traditional stochastic gradient algorithm and a conjugate-gradient procedure to find local optima of the average reward. ©2001 AI Access Foundation and Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. All rights reserved.

Robust designs for Poisson regression models

We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.

Interaction of contractile activity and training history on mRNA abundance in skeletal muscle from trained athletes

Skeletal muscle displays enormous plasticity to respond to contractile activity with muscle from strength- (ST) and endurance-trained (ET) athletes representing diverse states of the adaptation continuum. Training adaptation can be viewed as the accumulation of specific proteins. Hence, the altered gene expression that allows for changes in protein concentration is of major importance for any training adaptation. Accordingly, the aim of the present study was to quantify acute subcellular responses in muscle to habitual and unfamiliar exercise. After 24-h diet/exercise control, 13 male subjects (7 ST and 6 ET) performed a random order of either resistance (8 × 5 maximal leg extensions) or endurance exercise (1 h of cycling at 70% peak O2 uptake). Muscle biopsies were taken from vastus lateralis at rest and 3 h after exercise. Gene expression was analyzed using real-time PCR with changes normalized relative to preexercise values. After cycling exercise, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivator-1α (ET ∼8.5-fold, ST ∼10-fold, P < 0.001), pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase-4 (PDK-4; ET ∼26-fold, ST ∼39-fold), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF; ET ∼4.5-fold, ST ∼4-fold), and muscle atrophy F-box protein (MAFbx) (ET ∼2-fold, ST ∼0.4-fold) mRNA increased in both groups, whereas MyoD (∼3-fold), myogenin (∼0.9-fold), and myostatin (∼2-fold) mRNA increased in ET but not in ST (P < 0.05). After resistance exercise PDK-4 (∼7-fold, P < 0.01) and MyoD (∼0.7-fold) increased, whereas MAFbx (∼0.7-fold) and myostatin (∼0.6-fold) decreased in ET but not in ST. We conclude that prior training history can modify the acute gene responses in skeletal muscle to subsequent exercise.

Early signaling responses to divergent exercise stimuli in skeletal muscle from well-trained humans

Skeletal muscle from strength- and endurance-trained individuals represents diverse adaptive states. In this regard, AMPK-PGC-1α signaling mediates several adaptations to endurance training, while up-regulation of the Akt-TSC2-mTOR pathway may underlie increased protein synthesis after resistance exercise. We determined the effect of prior training history on signaling responses in seven strength-trained and six endurance-trained males who undertook 1 h cycling at 70% VO2peak or eight sets of five maximal repetitions of isokinetic leg extensions. Muscle biopsies were taken at rest, immediately and 3 h postexercise. AMPK phosphorylation increased after cycling in strength-trained (54%; P<0.05) but not endurance-trained subjects. Conversely, AMPK was elevated after resistance exercise in endurance- (114%; P<0.05), but not strengthtrained subjects. Akt phosphorylation increased in endurance- (50%; P<0.05), but not strengthtrained subjects after cycling but was unchanged in either group after resistance exercise. TSC2 phosphorylation was decreased (47%; P<0.05) in endurance-trained subjects following resistance exercise, but cycling had little effect on the phosphorylation state of this protein in either group. p70S6K phosphorylation increased in endurance- (118%; P<0.05), but not strength-trained subjects after resistance exercise, but was similar to rest in both groups after cycling. Similarly, phosphorylation of S6 protein, a substrate for p70 S6K, was increased immediately following resistance exercise in endurance- (129%; P<0.05), but not strength-trained subjects. In conclusion, a degree of “response plasticity” is conserved at opposite ends of the endurancehypertrophic adaptation continuum. Moreover, prior training attenuates the exercise specific signaling responses involved in single mode adaptations to training.

Robust designs for Poisson regression models

We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.

Hydrogen-bonding in the structures of the hydrated proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide with the isomeric indole-2 and indole-3-carboxylic acids

The structures of two hydrated proton-transfer compounds of 4-piperidinecarboxamide (isonipecotamide) with the isomeric heteroaromatic carboxylic acids indole-2-carboxylic acid and indole-3-carboxylic acid, namely 4-carbamoylpiperidinium indole-2-carboxylate dihydrate (1) and 4-carbamoylpiperidinium indole-3-carboxylate hemihydrate (2) have been determined at 200 K. Crystals of both 1 and 2 are monoclinic, space groups P21/c and P2/c respectively with Z = 4 in cells having dimensions a = 10.6811(4), b = 12.2017(4), c = 12.5456(5) Å, β = 96.000(4)o (1) and a = 15.5140(4), b = 10.2908(3), c = 9.7047(3) Å, β = 97.060(3)o (2). Hydrogen-bonding in 1 involves a primary cyclic interaction involving complementary cation amide N-H…O(carboxyl) anion and anion hetero N-H…O(amide) cation hydrogen bonds [graph set R22(9)]. Secondary associations involving also the water molecules of solvation give a two-dimensional network structure which includes weak water O-H…π interactions. In the three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structure of 2, there are classic centrosymmetric cyclic head-to-head hydrogen-bonded amide-amide interactions [graph set R22(8)] as well as lateral cyclic amide-O linked amide-amide extensions [graph set R24(8)]. The anions and the water molecule, which lies on a twofold rotation axis, are involved in secondary extensions.

Self-Government and the fashioning of resilient personae : legal education, criminal justice, and the government of mental health

This paper explores attempts to shape resilient personae through relations of self-government, and highlights the way that this features as part of advanced liberal forms of rule. As an example of this process, it focuses on the way that undergraduate law students are encouraged to fashion resilient personae throughout their legal studies, so as to avoid, or effectively respond to, experiences that may have a detrimental effect on their mental health. This paper argues that the production of such resilience relies on students being encouraged to take up psychologically- and biomedically-infused subject positions, becoming well-disciplined subjects, entrepreneurs of the self, and even virtuous persons. It highlights that the fashioning of resilient personae in this way involves extensions to the targets and practices of self-government and reinforces advanced liberal government. The paper then suggests how insights into fashioning resilience in this context can inform further research on resilience, particularly resilience produced within criminal justice professionals.

Diversified service provisioning in global business networks

Companies and their services are being increasingly exposed to global business networks and Internet-based ondemand services. Much of the focus is on flexible orchestration and consumption of services, beyond ownership and operational boundaries of services. However, ways in which third-parties in the “global village” can seamlessly self-create new offers out of existing services remains open. This paper proposes a framework for service provisioning in global business networks that allows an open-ended set of techniques for extending services through a rich, multi-tooling environment. The Service Provisioning Management Framework, as such, supports different modeling techniques, through supportive tools, allowing different parts of services to be integrated into new contexts. Integration of service user interfaces, business processes, operational interfaces and business object are supported. The integration specifications that arise from service extensions are uniformly reflected through a kernel technique, the Service Integration Technique. Thus, the framework preserves coherence of service provisioning tasks without constraining the modeling techniques needed for extending different aspects of services.

A graphical notation for modelling events in business processes

Using complex event rules for capturing dependencies between business processes is an emerging trend in enterprise information systems. In previous work we have identified a set of requirements for event extensions for business process modeling languages. This paper introduces a graphical language for modeling composite events in business processes, namely BEMN, that fulfills all these requirements. These include event conjunction, disjunction and inhibition as well as cardinality of events whose graphical expression can be factored into flow-oriented process modeling and event rule modeling. Formal semantics for the language are provided.

Investigation to enhance high speed rail accessibility

High Speed Rail (HSR) is rapidly gaining popularity worldwide as a safe and efficient transport option for long-distance travel. Designed to win market shares from air transport, HSR systems optimise their productivity between increasing speeds and station spacing to offer high quality service and gain ridership. Recent studies have investigated the effects that the deployment of HSR infrastructure has on spatial distribution and the economic development of cities and regions. Findings appear mostly positive at higher geographical scales, where HSR links connect major urban centres several hundred kilometres apart and already well positioned within a national or international context. Also, at the urban level, studies have shown regeneration and concentration effects around HSR station areas with positive returns on city’s image and economy. However, doubts persist on the effects of HSR at an intermediate scale, where the accessibility trade off on station spacing limits access to many small and medium agglomerations. Thereby, their ability to participate in the development opportunities facilitated by HSR infrastructure is significantly reduced. The locational advantages deriving from transport improvements appear contrasting especially in regions that tend to have a polycentric structure, where cities may present greater accessibility disparities between those served by HSR and those left behind. This thesis fits in this context where intermediate and regional cities do not directly enjoy the presence of an HSR station while having an existing or planned proximate HSR corridor. With the aim of understanding whether there might be a solution to this apparent incongruity, the research investigates strategies to integrate HSR accessibility at the regional level. While current literature recommends to commit with ancillary investments to the uplift of station areas and the renewal of feeder systems, I hypothesised the interoperability between the HSR and the conventional networks to explore the possibilities offered by mixed traffic and infrastructure sharing. Thus, I developed a methodology to quantify the exchange of benefits deriving from this synergistic interaction. In this way, it was possible to understand which level of service quality offered by alternative transit strategies best facilitates the distribution of accessibility benefits for areas far from actual HSR stations. Therefore, strategies were selected for their type of service capable of regional extensions and urban penetrations, while incorporating a combination of specific advantages (e.g. speed, sub-urbanity, capacity, frequency and automation) in order to emulate HSR quality with increasingly efficient services. The North-eastern Italian macro region was selected as case study to ground the research offering concurrently a peripheral polycentric metropolitan form, the presence of a planned HSR corridor with some portions of HSR infrastructure implementation, and the project to develop a suburban rail service extended regionally. Results show significant distributive potential, in terms of network effects produced in relation with HSR, in increasing proportions for all the strategies considered: a regional metro rail strategy (abbreviated RMR), a regional high speed rail strategy (abbreviated RHSR), a regional light rail transit (abbreviated LRT) strategy, and a non-stopping continuous railway system (abbreviated CRS) strategy. The provision of additional tools to value HSR infrastructure against its accessibility benefits and their regional distribution through alternative strategies beyond the actual HSR stations, would have great implications, both politically and technically, in moving towards new dimensions of HSR evaluation and development.