An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Guyana

Climate change is anticipated to have potentially disastrous impacts on the economic viability of the agricultural sector, insomuch as traditional agricultural practices render the agricultural sector climate-dependent. Increased temperatures and increased intensity, timing and occurrence of hydro events are expected to challenge plant and animal viability. Under such circumstances, vector control is expected to become more difficult, which may further prejudice the prosperity of plant, livestock and fisheries growth. The impact is expected to be on the quality of agricultural produce and thereby, indirectly, on human health outcomes. The key threat mechanisms are debilitated plant vitality and increased propagation of pests, as drought periods increase the breeding of vectors through water pooling and soil erosion associated with the increased intensity of hydro events. In addition, climate change is likely to affect crop productivity in specific geographical areas through its impact on growing seasons and crop patterns, to the extent that crop varieties cannot adapt.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

The People’s Republic of China and Latin America: the impact of Chinese economic growth on Latin American exports

The role of the People’s Republic of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic foreign trading partner for much of Latin America. Bilateral trade between the region and China totalled US$ 120 billion in 2009. This study analyses the income elasticity of the region’s exports to the country. The findings show that, assuming real gross domestic product (gdp) growth in China of about 7% a year, the value of Latin American exports to China (at 2005 prices) can be expected to increase by an average of about 10% a year between 2014 and 2019. In a more conservative scenario of 4.5% average annual growth in the Chinese economy over the period, exports would rise by about 7% a year.

Diffusion of Lambda(c) in hot hadronic medium and its impact on Lambda(c)/D ratio

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The impact of atmospheric particulate matter on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to verify the impact of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Statistical techniques were used to investigate the relationship between PM10 on cancer incidence and mortality in selected districts. For some types of cancer (skin, lung, thyroid, larynx, and bladder) and some periods, the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.60 to 0.80 for incidence. Lung cancer mortality showed more correlations during the overall period. Spatial analysis showed that districts distant from the city center showed higher than expected relative risk, depending on the type of cancer According to the study, urban PM10 can contribute to increased incidence of some cancers and may also contribute to increased cancer mortality. The results highlight the need to adopt measures to reduce atmospheric PM10 levels and the importance of their continuous monitoring.

The impact of atmospheric particulate matter on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to verify the impact of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Statistical techniques were used to investigate the relationship between PM10 on cancer incidence and mortality in selected districts. For some types of cancer (skin, lung, thyroid, larynx, and bladder) and some periods, the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.60 to 0.80 for incidence. Lung cancer mortality showed more correlations during the overall period. Spatial analysis showed that districts distant from the city center showed higher than expected relative risk, depending on the type of cancer. According to the study, urban PM10 can contribute to increased incidence of some cancers and may also contribute to increased cancer mortality. The results highlight the need to adopt measures to reduce atmospheric PM10 levels and the importance of their continuous monitoring.

Impact of ocean acidification on phytoplankton growth and aggregation

Since the industrial revolution, the ocean has absorbed around one third of the anthropogenic CO2, which induced a profound alteration of the carbonate system commonly known as ocean acidification. Since the preindustrial times, the average ocean surface water pH has fallen by 0.1 units, from approximately 8.2 to 8.1 and a further decrease of 0.4 pH units is expected for the end of the century. Despite their microscopic size, marine diatoms are bio-geo-chemically a very important group, responsible for the export of massive amount of carbon to deep waters and sediments. The knowledge of the potential effects of ocean acidification on the phytoplankton growth and on biological pump is still at its infancy. This study wants to investigate the effect of ocean acidification on the growth of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi and on its aggregation, using a mechanistic approach. The experiment consisted of two treatments (Present and Future) representing different pCO2 conditions and two sequential experimental phases. During the cell growth phase a culture of S. marinoi was inoculated into transparent bags and the effect of ocean acidification was studied on various growth parameters, including DOC and TEP production. The aggregation phase consisted in the incubation of the cultures into rolling tanks where the sinking of particles through the water column was simulated and aggregation promoted. Since few studies investigated the effect of pH on the growth of S. marinoi and none used pH ranges that are compatible with the OA scenarios, there were no baselines. I have shown here, that OA does not affect the cell growth of S. marinoi, suggesting that the physiology of this species is robust in respect to the changes in the carbonate chemistry expected for the end of the century. Furthermore, according to my results, OA does not affect the aggregation of S. marinoi in a consistent manner, suggesting that this process has a high natural variability but is not influenced by OA in a predictable way. The effect of OA was tested over a variety of factors including the number of aggregates produced, their size and sinking velocity, the algal, bacterial and TEP content. Many of these variables showed significant treatment effects but none of these were consistent between the two experiments.

Higher Educational Impact on Student Objectives: Longitudinal Change in Clark-Trow "Educational Philosophies"

This study explores the impact of higher education on 3,942 arts and sciences students as measured by change in their freshman and senior ratings of four Clark-Trow "educational philosophies": vocational, academic, collegiate, and nonconformist (Clark and Trow, 1966). A repeated measures analysis of variance was applied to each of the four philosophies, controlling for sex, entering year, major, parents' educational background, scholastic aptitude, and academic motivation. As expected from Clark-Trow theory, students showed significant increases in academic and nonconformist philosophies, and decreases in vocational and collegiate philosophies. Relationships between independent variables and freshman-senior change suggested post hoc reinterpretation of the dimensions underlying the Clark-Trow "phenotypes": i. e., from "identification with the college" and "involvement with ideas" to "social interests" and "academic interests" (the latter suggested by Terenzini and Pascarella, 1977).

Long-term impact of treated congenital toxoplasmosis on quality of life and visual performance

Background: Long-term evolution of congenital toxoplasmosis is not documented. We assessed the outcome of treated congenital toxoplasmosis in a cohort of adult individuals who had undergone ante- and postnatal treatment to provide information for pediatricians and parents on the evolution of the disease. Methods: We conducted a questionnaire study on 126 adults with congenital toxoplasmosis (mean age: 22.2 years; age range: 18–31 years) monitored regularly until the time of inclusion. The main outcome measures were quality of life (Psychological General Well-Being Index) and visual function (VF14 questionnaire), and the outcomes were correlated with disease-specific factors. Results: Of the 102 patients (80.9%) who were finally included in the study, 12 (11.8%) presented neurologic effects and 60 (58.8%) manifested ocular lesions; in the latter category, 13 individuals (12.7%) had reduced visual function. The overall global quality-of-life score (74.7 ± 14.2) was close to the expected normal range for the general population (73.7 ± 15.3). Overall, visual function was only slightly impaired (M = 97.3; 95% confidence interval, 95.8–98.8). Although disease-independent critical life circumstances were associated with a reduced Psychological General Well-Being Index, this index was not influenced by any of the clinical characteristics of congenital toxoplasmosis. Neurologic pathologies, reduced visual acuity, foveal location of the retinal lesion, and squinting contributed to decreased visual function at follow-up. Conclusions: Our data reveal that treated congenital toxoplasmosis has little effect on the quality of life and visual function of the affected individuals. These encouraging findings may help to alleviate the anxiety of affected individuals and their parents.

Relationships Past and Present: Examining the Impact of One's Relationship with His/her Opposite-sex Parent on His/her Attitudes Toward and Engagement in Hookup Culture

Hooking up has become a common and public practice on university campuses across the country. While much research has determined who is doing it, with whom they are doing it, and what they are hoping to get out of it, little work has been done to determine what personal factors motivate students to participate in the culture. A total of 407 current students were surveyed to assess the impact of one’s relationship with his/her opposite-sex parent on his/her attitudestoward and engagement in hookup culture on campus. Scores were assigned to the participants to divide them into categories of high and low attachment with their parent. It was hypothesizedthat heterosexual students who do not perceive themselves as having a strong, close, positive relationship with their opposite-sex parent would be more likely to engage in or attempt to engage in casual sexual behavior. This pattern was expected to be strongest for women on campus. Men and women differed in their reasons for hooking up, with whom they hook up, to what they attribute the behaviors of their peers, and what they hope to gain from their sexual interactions. Effects of parent-child relationships were significant only for women who reported hooking up because “others are doing it,” men’s agreement with the behavior of their peers, and women’s overall satisfaction with their hookups. Developmental, social, and evolutionary perspectives are employed to explain the results. University status was determined to be most telling of the extent to which a student is engaged in hookup culture.

Scheduler-dependent inter-cell interference and its impact on LTE uplink performance at flow level

The Long Term Evolution (LTE) cellular technology is expected to extend the capacity and improve the performance of current 3G cellular networks. Among the key mechanisms in LTE responsible for traffic management is the packet scheduler, which handles the allocation of resources to active flows in both the frequency and time dimension. This paper investigates for various scheduling scheme how they affect the inter-cell interference characteristics and how the interference in turn affects the user’s performance. A special focus in the analysis is on the impact of flow-level dynamics resulting from the random user behaviour. For this we use a hybrid analytical/simulation approach which enables fast evaluation of flow-level performance measures. Most interestingly, our findings show that the scheduling policy significantly affects the inter-cell interference pattern but that the scheduler specific pattern has little impact on the flow-level performance.

Characterization of CDKN2A(p16) methylation and impact in colorectal cancer: systematic analysis using pyrosequencing

Background The aim of this study is to analyse CDKN2A methylation using pyrosequencing on a large cohort of colorectal cancers and corresponding non-neoplastic tissues. In a second step, the effect of methylation on clinical outcome is addressed. Methods Primary colorectal cancers and matched non-neoplastic tissues from 432 patients underwent CDKN2A methylation analysis by pyrosequencing (PyroMarkQ96). Methylation was then related to clinical outcome, microsatellite instability (MSI), and BRAF and KRAS mutation. Different amplification conditions (35 to 50 PCR cycles) using a range of 0-100% methylated DNA were tested. Results Background methylation was at most 10% with ≥35 PCR cycles. Correlation of observed and expected values was high, even at low methylation levels (0.02%, 0.6%, 2%). Accuracy of detection was optimal with 45 PCR cycles. Methylation in normal mucosa ranged from 0 to >90% in some cases. Based on the maximum value of 10% background, positivity was defined as a ≥20% difference in methylation between tumor and normal tissue, which occurred in 87 cases. CDKN2A methylation positivity was associated with MSI (p = 0.025), BRAF mutation (p < 0.0001), higher tumor grade (p < 0.0001), mucinous histology (p = 0.0209) but not with KRAS mutation. CDKN2A methylation had an independent adverse effect (p = 0.0058) on prognosis. Conclusion The non-negligible CDKN2A methylation of normal colorectal mucosa may confound the assessment of tumor-specific hypermethylation, suggesting that corresponding non-neoplastic tissue should be used as a control. CDKN2A methylation is robustly detected by pyrosequencing, even at low levels, suggesting that this unfavorable prognostic biomarker warrants investigation in prospective studies.