A territorial approach to R&D subsidies: Empirical evidence for Catalonian firms

Using a database of 2,263 responses to R&D public calls in Catalonia, during the period 2007–2010, this paper proceeds to analyse the potential interaction of the territorial and policy dimensions with the propensity to apply for, and be awarded, a public R&D subsidy. Controlling for characteristics at the firm and project level, we estimate models using a two-step procedure. In the first step, our results suggest that large firms which export and which belong to high-tech manufactures are more likely to participate in a public R&D call. Furthermore, both urban location and past experience of such calls have a positive effect. Our territorial proxy of information spillovers shows a positive sign, but this is only significant at intra-industry level. Membership of one of the sectors prioritized by the Catalan government, perhaps surprisingly, does not have a significant impact. In the second step, our results show that cooperative projects, SMEs or old firms shows a positive effect on the probability of obtaining a public subsidy. Finally, the cluster policy does not show a clear relationship with the public R&D call, suggesting that cluster policies and R&D subsidies follow different goals. Our results are in line with previous results in the literature, but they highlight the unequal territorial distribution of the firms which apply and the fact that policymakers should interlink the decision criteria for their public call with other policies. Keywords: Evaluation, R&D policies, territorial approach, clusters JEL Classifications: L53, L25, O38

Digital evidence, 'absence' of data and ambiguous patterns of reasoning

In this paper we discuss the use of digital data by the Swiss Federal Criminal Court in a recent case of attempted homicide. We use this case to examine drawbacks for the defense when the presentation of scientific evidence is partial, especially when the only perspective mentioned is that of the prosecution. We tackle this discussion at two distinct levels. First, we pursue an essentially non-technical presentation of the topic by drawing parallels between the court's summing up of the case and flawed patterns of reasoning commonly seen in other forensic disciplines, such as DNA and particle traces (e.g., gunshot residues). Then, we propose a formal analysis of the case, using elements of probability and graphical probability models, to justify our main claim that the partial presentation of digital evidence poses a risk to the administration of justice in that it keeps vital information from the defense. We will argue that such practice constitutes a violation of general principles of forensic interpretation as established by forensic science literature and current recommendations by forensic science interest groups (e.g., the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes). Finally, we posit that argument construction and analysis using formal methods can help replace digital evidence appropriately into context and thus support a sound evaluation of the evidence.

An evaluation of the Swiss staging model for hypothermia using case reports from the literature.

BACKGROUND: Core body temperature is used to stage and guide the management of hypothermic patients, however obtaining accurate measurements of core temperature is challenging, especially in the pre-hospital context. The Swiss staging model for hypothermia uses clinical indicators to stage hypothermia. The proposed temperature range for clinical stage 1 is <35-32 °C (95-90 °F), for stage 2, <32-28 °C (<90-82 °F) for stage 3, <28-24 °C (<82-75 °F), and for stage 4 below 24 °C (75 °F). However, the evidence relating these temperature ranges to the clinical stages needs to be strengthened. METHODS: Medline was used to retrieve data on as many cases of accidental hypothermia (core body temperature <35 °C (95 °F)) as possible. Cases of therapeutic or neonatal hypothermia and those with confounders or insufficient data were excluded. To evaluate the Swiss staging model for hypothermia, we estimated the percentage of those patients who were correctly classified and compared the theoretical with the observed ranges of temperatures for each clinical stage. The number of rescue collapses was also recorded. RESULTS: We analysed 183 cases; the median temperature for the sample was 25.2 °C (IQR 22-28). 95 of the 183 patients (51.9 %; 95 % CI = 44.7 %-59.2 %) were correctly classified, while the temperature was overestimated in 36 patients (19.7 %; 95 % CI = 13.9 %-25.4 %). We observed important overlaps among the four stage groups with respect to core temperature, the lowest observed temperature being 28.1 °C for Stage 1, 22 °C for Stage 2, 19.3 °C for Stage 3, and 13.7 °C for stage 4. CONCLUSION: Predicting core body temperature using clinical indicators is a difficult task. Despite the inherent limitations of our study, it increases the strength of the evidence linking the clinical hypothermia stage to core temperature. Decreasing the thresholds of temperatures distinguishing the different stages would allow a reduction in the number of cases where body temperature is overestimated, avoiding some potentially negative consequences for the management of hypothermic patients.

Inférence de source de traces d'essence retrouvées dans des débris d'incendie: Evaluation de la contribution de la chromatographie en phase gazeuse couplée à la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique

Lorsque de l'essence est employée pour allumer et/ou propager un incendie, l'inférence de la source de l'essence peut permettre d'établir un lien entre le sinistre et une source potentielle. Cette inférence de la source constitue une alternative intéressante pour fournir des éléments de preuve dans ce type d'événements où les preuves matérielles laissées par l'auteur sont rares. Le but principal de cette recherche était le développement d'une méthode d'analyse de spécimens d'essence par GC-IRMS, méthode pas routinière et peu étudiée en science forensique, puis l'évaluation de son potentiel à inférer la source de traces d'essence en comparaison aux performances de la GC-MS. Un appareillage permettant d'analyser simultanément les échantillons par MS et par IRMS a été utilisé dans cette recherche. Une méthode d'analyse a été développée, optimisée et validée pour cet appareillage. Par la suite, des prélèvements d'essence provenant d'un échantillonnage conséquent et représentatif du marché de la région lausannoise ont été analysés. Finalement, les données obtenues ont été traitées et interprétées à l'aide de méthodes chimiométriques. Les analyses effectuées ont permis de montrer que la méthodologie mise en place, aussi bien pour la composante MS que pour l'IRMS, permet de différencier des échantillons d'essence non altérée provenant de différentes stations-service. Il a également pu être démontré qu'à chaque nouveau remplissage des cuves d'une station-service, la composition de l'essence distribuée par cette station est quasi unique. La GC-MS permet une meilleure différenciation d'échantillons prélevés dans différentes stations, alors que la GC-IRMS est plus performante lorsqu'il s'agit de comparer des échantillons collectés après chacun des remplissages d'une cuve. Ainsi, ces résultats indiquent que les deux composantes de la méthode peuvent être complémentaires pour l'analyse d'échantillons d'essence non altérée. Les résultats obtenus ont également permis de montrer que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence ne compromet pas la possibilité de grouper des échantillons de même source par GC-MS. Il est toutefois nécessaire d'effectuer une sélection des variables afin d'éliminer celles qui sont influencées par le phénomène d'évaporation. Par contre, les analyses effectuées ont montré que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence a une forte influence sur la composition isotopique des échantillons. Cette influence est telle qu'il n'est pas possible, même en effectuant une sélection des variables, de grouper correctement des échantillons évaporés par GC-IRMS. Par conséquent, seule la composante MS de la méthodologie mise en place permet d'inférer la source d'échantillons d'essence évaporée. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ When gasoline is used to start and / or propagate an arson, source inference of gasoline can allow to establish a link between the fire and a potential source. This source inference is an interesting alternative to provide evidence in this type of events where physical evidence left by the author are rare. The main purpose of this research was to develop a GC-IRMS method for the analysis of gasoline samples, a non-routine method and little investigated in forensic science, and to evaluate its potential to infer the source of gasoline traces compared to the GC-MS performances. An instrument allowing to analyze simultaneously samples by MS and IRMS was used in this research. An analytical method was developed, optimized and validated for this instrument. Thereafter, gasoline samples from a large sampling and representative of the Lausanne area market were analyzed. Finally, the obtained data were processed and interpreted using chemometric methods. The analyses have shown that the methodology, both for MS and for IRMS, allow to differentiate unweathered gasoline samples from different service stations. It has also been demonstrated that each new filling of the tanks of a station generates an almost unique composition of gasoline. GC-MS achieves a better differentiation of samples coming from different stations, while GC-IRMS is more efficient to distinguish samples collected after each filling of a tank. Thus, these results indicate that the two components of the method can be complementary to the analysis of unweathered gasoline samples. The results have also shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples does not compromise the possibility to group samples coming from the same source by GC-MS. It is however necessary to make a selection of variables in order to eliminate those which are influenced by the evaporation. On the other hand, the carried out analyses have shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples has such a strong influence on the isotopic composition of the samples that it is not possible, even by performing a selection of variables, to properly group evaporated samples by GC-IRMS. Therefore, only the MS allows to infer the source of evaporated gasoline samples.

Evaluation de l'application de la PCIME dans un hôpital de pays développé

1.1 Contexte1 Depuis 20 ans, l'OMS (Organisation Mondiale de la Santé) et l'UNICEF (United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund) ont élaboré un programme basé sur l'EBM (evidence Based Medicine) pour aider les pays en voie de développement à diminuer la mortalité infantile dans leur pays. Le succès de la Prise en Charge Intégrée de la Maladie de l'Enfant (PCIME) a permis de l'implanter dans plus de 100 pays en proposant une stratégie sur 3 plans : amélioration des compétences du personnel soignant, amélioration globale du système de santé et amélioration des pratiques familiales et communautaires en matière de santé. 1.2 Objectifs Cette étude évalue l'impact de l'utilisation des arbres décisionnels et des fiches-types de prise en charge proposés par la PCIME dans un hôpital de pays développé tel que l'HEL (Hôpital de l'Enfance). Nous adapterons les modèles pour 2 populations distinctes, le nourrisson âgé de 1 semaine à 2 mois et l'enfant dyspnéique âgé de 2 mois à 5 ans. 1.3 Méthode Dans une première phase, les prises en charge à l'HEL sont analysées par une grille d'évaluation standardisée permettant de les comparer à la prise en charge type PECIME. Les items insuffisamment effectués selon la grille d'évaluation sont présentés aux médecins avec un rappel du rôle de chacun. La seconde partie évalue l'amélioration obtenue dans les prises en charge. Les résultats des deux études vont permettre l'élaboration d'un premier questionnaire et d'une fiche de type check list pour les parents. L'étude évalue deux prises en charge cliniques distinctes. D'une part les nourrissons âgés de 1 semaine à 2 mois et d'autre part les jeunes enfants âgés entre 2 mois et 5 ans qui se présentent avec une dyspnée aux urgences de l'HEL. 1.4 Résultats escomptés Par le biais d'une récolte de données suffisante et d'une formation dispensée entre les deux phases de l'étude, nous nous attendons à une optimisation de la prise en charge des enfants et de leur famille. 1.5 Plus-value escomptée Nous aimerions qu'une telle étude puisse amener des clefs pour une prise en charge complète de l'enfant et de sa famille, en mettant l'accent sur les points essentiels des différentes parties d'une consultation.

Evidence on the role of ownership structure on firms' innovative performance

Based on the Knowledge Production Function framework given by Griliches -1979-, we slightly modify it so that the innovative output depends upon a set of factors related to the firm internal characteristics and are influenced by the environment. Specifically, regarding the firm internal determinants the effect of the concentration of the ownership, the composition of the boards of directors and the effect of the nature of the ownership (foreign and public) are analyzed. Additionally, in order to capture the determinants of the environment in which the firm operates other variables concerning the internationalization of market, the agglomeration economies and the regional knowledge externalities are also considered. In order to assess the impact of these determinants on the number of patents and models of use awarded by the firm, the discreteness of the latter variable has to be taken into account. We apply Poisson and Negative Binomial models for a more comprehensive evaluation of the hypothesis in a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms. The results show patenting activity is positively favoured by being located in an environment with a high innovative activity, due to the existence of knowledge spillovers and agglomeration economies.

Assessing functional relations in single-case designs: Quantitative proposals in the context of the evidence-based movement

In the context of the evidence-based practices movement, the emphasis on computing effect sizes and combining them via meta-analysis does not preclude the demonstration of functional relations. For the latter aim, we propose to augment the visual analysis to add consistency to the decisions made on the existence of a functional relation without losing sight of the need for a methodological evaluation of what stimuli and reinforcement or punishment are used to control the behavior. Four options for quantification are reviewed, illustrated, and tested with simulated data. These quantifications include comparing the projected baseline with the actual treatment measurements, on the basis of either parametric or nonparametric statistics. The simulated data used to test the quantifications include nine data patterns in terms of the presence and type of effect and comprising ABAB and multiple baseline designs. Although none of the techniques is completely flawless in terms of detecting a functional relation only when it is present but not when it is absent, an option based on projecting split-middle trend and considering data variability as in exploratory data analysis proves to be the best performer for most data patterns. We suggest that the information on whether a functional relation has been demonstrated should be included in meta-analyses. It is also possible to use as a weight the inverse of the data variability measure used in the quantification for assessing the functional relation. We offer an easy to use code for open-source software for implementing some of the quantifications.

Patient Seclusion and Restraint Practices in Psychiatric Hospitals - Towards Evidence Based Clinical Nursing

The overall goal of this study was to support evidence based clinical nursing regarding patient seclusion and restraint practices. This was done by ensuring professional competence through innovative learning methods. The data were collected in three phases between March 2007 and May 2009 on acute psychiatric wards. Firstly, psychiatric inpatients’ experiences and suggestions for seclusion and restraint practices were explored (n=30). Secondly, nursing and medical personnel’s perceptions of seclusion and restraint practices were explored (n=27). Thirdly, the impacts of a continuing vocational eLearning course on nurses’ professional competence was evaluated (n=158). Patients’ perspectives received insufficient attention during the seclusion and restraint process. Improvements and alternatives to seclusion and restraint as suggested by the patients focused on essential parts of clinical nursing, but were not extensively adopted. Also nursing and medical personnel thought that patients’ subjective perspective received little attention. Personnel proposed a number of alternatives to seclusion and restraint, and they expressed a need for education and support to adopt these in clinical nursing. Evaluation of impacts of eLearning course on nurses’ professional competence showed no statistical differences between an eLearning group and an education-as-usual group. This dissertation provides evidence based knowledge about the realization of seclusion and restraint practices and the impacts of eLearning course on nurses’ professional competence in psychiatric hospitals. In order to improve clinical nursing the patient perspective must be accentuated. To ensure personnel’s professional competence, there is a need for written clinical guidelines, education and support. Continuing vocational education should bring together written clinical guidelines, ethical and legal issues and the support for personnel. To achieve the ambitious goal of such integration, achievable and affordable educational programmes are required. This, in turn, yields a call for innovative learning methods.

Nuss procedure for Pectus excavatum repair: critical appraisal of the evidence

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of correction of pectus excavatum by the Nuss technique based on the available scientific evidence.Methods: We conducted an evidence synthesis following systematic processes of search, selection, extraction and critical appraisal. Outcomes were classified by importance and had their quality assessed by the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE).Results: The process of selection of items led to the inclusion of only one systematic review, which synthesized the results of nine observational studies comparing the Nuss and Ravitch procedures. The evidence found was rated as poor and very poor quality. The Nuss procedure has increased the incidence of hemothorax (RR = 5.15; 95% CI: 1.07; 24.89), pneumothorax (RR = 5.26; 95% CI: 1.55; 17.92) and the need for reintervention (RR = 4.88; 95% CI: 2.41; 9.88) when compared to the Ravitch. There was no statistical difference between the two procedures in outcomes: general complications, blood transfusion, hospital stay and time to ambulation. The Nuss operation was faster than the Ravitch (mean difference [MD] = -69.94 minutes, 95% CI: -139.04, -0.83).Conclusion: In the absence of well-designed prospective studies to clarify the evidence, especially in terms of aesthetics and quality of life, surgical indication should be individualized and the choice of the technique based on patient preference and experience of the team.

Immunohistochemical evaluation of e-cadherin, Ki-67 and PCNA in canine mammary neoplasias: correlation of prognostic factors and clinical outcome

E-cadherin is a cell-cell adhesion molecule and low e-cadherin expression is related to invasiveness and may indicate a bad prognosis in mammary neoplasms. The expression of cell proliferation markers PCNA and especially Ki-67, has also proved to have a strong prognostic value in this tumor class. The expression of these markers was related to the clinical-pathological characteristics of 73 surgically removed mammary tumors in female dogs by immunohistochemistry. There was no statistical correlation between these markers and death by neoplasm, survival time and disease-free interval. However, the loss of e-cadherin expression and marked Ki-67 expression (p=0.016) were considered statistically significant for the diagnosis (p=0.032). When evaluated as independent factors, there was evidence of the relationship between the loss of e-cadherin expression and high PCNA expression with changes in the body status (divided into obese, normal and cachectic) of female dogs (p=0.030); there was also evidence of the relationship between pseudopregnancy and e-cadherin alone (p=0.021) and for ulceration and PCNA alone (p=0.035). The significant correlation between the markers expression and these well known prognostic factors used individually or in combination suggests their prognostic value in canine mammary tumors.

Metabolic evaluation of dairy cows submitted to three different strategies to decrease the effects of negative energy balance in early postpartum

In early lactation dairy cattle suffer metabolic alterations caused by negative energy balance, which predisposes to fatty liver and ketosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the metabolic condition of high yielding dairy cows subjected to three treatments for preventing severe lipomobilization and ketosis in early lactation. Fifty four multiparous Holstein cows yielding >30 L/day were divided into four groups: control (CN= no treatment), glucose precursor (PG= propylene-glycol), hepatic protector (Mp= Mercepton®), and energy supplement with salts of linolenic and linoleic faty acids (Mg-E= Megalac-E®). Treatments were administrated randomly at moment of calving until 8 weeks postpartum. Blood samples were collected on days 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42 and 49 postpartum. Body condition score (BCS) was evaluated at the same periods and milk yield was recorded at 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th weeks of lactation. Concentrations of non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), albumin, AST, ß-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), cholesterol, glucose, total protein, urea and triglycerides were analyzed in blood samples. Cut-off points for subclinical ketosis were defined when BHBA >1.4 mmol/L and NEFA >0.7 mmol/L. General occurrence of subclinical ketosis was 24% during the period. An ascendant curve of cholesterol and glucose was observed from the 1st to the 8th week of lactation, while any tendency was observed with BHBA and NEFA, although differences among treatments were detected (p<0.05). BCS decreased from a mean of 3.85 at 1st week to 2.53 at 8th week of lactation (p=0.001). Milk yield was higher in the Mg-E group compared with the other treatment groups (p<0.05) Compared with the CN group, the treatments with Mp and PG did not show significant differences in blood biochemistry and milk yield. Cows receiving PG and Mg-E showed higher values of BHBA and NEFA (P<0.05), indicating accentuated lipomobilization. Supplementation with Mg-E also resulted in significant higher concentrations of cholesterol, BHBA, urea, AST and lower values of glycemia. This performance may be explained by the highest milk yield observed with this treatment. Treatments with PG and Mp did not improve milk yield, compared with control cows, but did not show metabolic evidence of ketosis, fat mobilization or fatty liver. These results suggest that treatment with Mg-E improves milk production but induces a higher negative energy balance leading to moderated lipomobilization and ketone bodies production, increasing the risk of fatty liver.

Entrepreneurship Education in Basic and Upper Secondary Education – Measurement and Empirical Evidence

The starting point of this study is to direct more attention to the teacher and those entrepreneurship education practices taking place in formal school to find out solutions for more effective promotion of entrepreneurship education. For this objective, the strategy-level aims of entrepreneurship education need to be operationalised into measurable and understandable teacher-level practices. Furthermore, to enable the effective development of entrepreneurship education in basic and upper secondary level education, more knowledge is needed of the state of affairs of entrepreneurship education in teaching. The purpose of the study is to increase the level of understanding of teachers’ entrepreneurship education practices, and through this to develop entrepreneurship education. This study builds on the literature on entrepreneurship education and especially those elements referring to the aims, resources, benefits, methods, and practises of entrepreneurship education. The study comprises five articles highlighting teachers’ role in entrepreneurship education. In the first article the concept of entrepreneurship and the teachers role in reflection upon his/hers approaches to entrepreneurship education are considered. The second article provides a detailed analysis of the process of developing a measurement tool to depict the teachers’ activities in entrepreneurship education. The next three articles highlight the teachers’ role in directing the entrepreneurship education in basic and upper secondary level education. Furthermore, they analyse the relationship between the entrepreneurship education practises and the teachers’ background characteristics. The results of the study suggest a wide range of conclusions and implications. First, in spite of many outspoken aims connected to entrepreneurship education, teachers have not set any aims for themselves. Additionally, aims and results seem to mix. However, it is possible to develop teachers’ target orientation by supporting their reflection skills, and through measurement and evaluation increase their understanding of their own practices. Second, applying a participatory action process it is possible to operationalise teachers’entrepreneurship education practices. It is central to include the practitioners’ perspective in the development of measures to make sure that the concepts and aims of entrepreneurship education are understood. Third, teachers’ demographic or tenure-related background characteristics do not affect their entrepreneurship education practices, but their training related to entrepreneurship education, participation in different school-level or regional planning, and their own capabilities support entrepreneurship education. Fourth, a large number of methods are applied to entrepreneurship education, and the most often used methods were different kinds of discussions, which seem to be an easy, low-threshold way for teachers to include entrepreneurship education regularly in their teaching. Field trips to business enterprises or inviting entrepreneurs to present their work in schools are used fairly seldom. Interestingly, visits outside the school are more common than visitors invited to the school. In line, most of the entrepreneurship education practices take place in a classroom. Therefore it seems to be useful to create and encourage teachers towards more in-depth cooperation with companies (e.g. via joint projects) and to network systematically. Finally, there are plenty of resources available for entrepreneurship education, such as ready-made materials, external stakeholders, support organisations, and learning games, but teachers have utilized them only marginally.

Evaluation of Location Intelligence exploitation in capital-intensive business

As technology has developed it has increased the number of data produced and collected from business environment. Over 80% of that data includes some sort of reference to geographical location. Individuals have used that information by utilizing Google Maps or different GPS devices, however such information has remained unexploited in business. This thesis will study the use and utilization of geographically referenced data in capital-intensive business by first providing theoretical insight into how data and data-driven management enables and enhances the business and how especially geographically referenced data adds value to the company and then examining empirical case evidence how geographical information can truly be exploited in capital-intensive business and what are the value adding elements of geographical information to the business. The study contains semi-structured interviews that are used to scan attitudes and beliefs of an organization towards the geographic information and to discover fields of applications for the use of geographic information system within the case company. Additionally geographical data is tested in order to illustrate how the data could be used in practice. Finally the outcome of the thesis provides understanding from which elements the added value of geographical information in business is consisted of and how such data can be utilized in the case company and in capital-intensive business.

Sensory and microbiological evaluation of uncured fresh chicken sausage with reduced fat content

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the acceptability and the microbiological safety of uncured fresh chicken sausages with reduced fat content, considering the scientific evidence that correlated cancer and cardiovascular diseases to this diet. Two formulations of uncured fresh chicken sausage were processed using different concentrations of cochineal carmine pigment, rosemary extracts and synthetic antioxidants, which are used to give color, appearance and pleasant flavor to the products. Then, instrumental color (L*, a*, b*, C* and h*), microbial contamination and sensory tests (ranking and acceptance) were used to evaluate the quality of the uncured chicken sausages. The instrumental color (chroma and hue) and the sensory properties of the A and B uncured sausages were similar to the commercial cured sausage (C). However, the sensory color and appearance of samples A and B were statistically higher than those of the commercial uncured sausages D, which are prepared without the addition of nitrite or pigments. The results showed that it is possible to produce safe and high-quality uncured fresh chicken sausage with reduced fat content, using natural pigments and antioxidants.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.