933 resultados para Europe, Central--Maps
Resumo:
Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades (1960–2000) and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions.
Resumo:
The occurrence of wind storms in Central Europe is investigated with respect to large-scale atmospheric flow and local wind speeds in the investigation area. Two different methods of storm identification are applied for Central Europe as the target region: one based on characteristics of large-scale flow (circulation weather types, CWT) and the other on the occurrence of extreme wind speeds. The identified events are examined with respect to the NAO phases and CWTs under which they occur. Pressure patterns, wind speeds and cyclone tracks are investigated for storms assigned to different CWTs. Investigations are based on ERA40 reanalysis data. It is shown that about 80% of the storm days in Central Europe are connected with westerly flow and that Central European storm events primarily occur during a moderately positive NAO phase, while strongly positive NAO phases (6.4% of all days) account for more than 20% of the storms. A storm occurs over Central Europe during about 10% of the days with a strong positive NAO index. The most frequent pathway of cyclone systems associated with storms over Central Europe leads from the North Atlantic over the British Isles, North Sea and southern Scandinavia into the Baltic Sea. The mean intensity of the systems typically reaches its maximum near the British Isles. Differences between the characteristics for storms identified from the CWT identification procedure (gale days, based on MSLP fields) and those from extreme winds at Central European grid points are small, even though only 70% of the storm days agree. While most storms occur during westerly flow situations, specific characteristics of storms during the other CWTs are also considered. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
Resumo:
Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.
Resumo:
Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is the most important arboviral agent causing disease of the central nervous system in central Europe. In this study, 61 TBEV E gene sequences derived from 48 isolates from the Czech Republic, and four isolates and nine TBEV strains detected in ticks from Germany, covering more than half a century from 1954 to 2009, were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic and Bayesian phylodynamic analysis to determine the phylogeography of TBEV in central Europe. The general Eurasian continental east-to-west pattern of the spread of TBEV was confirmed at the regional level but is interlaced with spreading that arises because of local geography and anthropogenic influence. This spread is reflected by the disease pattern in the Czech Republic that has been observed since 1991. The overall evolutionary rate was estimated to be approximately 8x10(-4) substitutions per nucleotide per year. The analysis of the TBEV E genes of 11 strains isolated at one natural focus in Zd`ar Kaplice proved for the first time that TBEV is indeed subject to local evolution.
Resumo:
Includes bibliography
Resumo:
In recent years speleothem has been intensely studied due to its great potential of registering paleoclimate proxies but some considerably uncertaintiesregarding speleothem proxy interpretation still exist. In order to minimize these uncertainties, multi-proxy approach has been used. Here is presented the strontium isotope record from Bunker cave, northwest Germany. This cave was previously studied and has proved well record paleoclimate changes during Holocene for central Europe.87Sr/86Sr ratio is presented for rain water, A-horizon soil (water and leachate), C-horizon soil (water and leachate), host rock and host rock leachate, drip water and from a stalagmite (Bu4) previously dated covering the Holocene. Upper soil presented the higher values in contrast with host rock (lower values). Drip water and C-horizon presented intermediated ratios. Sr isotopesare used to track the source of 87Sr/86Sr in the Bunker system, resulting in a mixture between A-horizon soil, C-horizon soil and host rock. A decreasing trend in Bu4 indicates change in the Sr source in the system
Resumo:
In order to obtain a better understanding of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) strain movements in central Europe the E gene sequences of 102 TBEV strains collected from 1953 to 2011 at 38 sites in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Germany were determined. Bayesian analysis suggests a 350-year history of evolution and spread in central Europe of two main lineages, A and B. In contrast to the east to west spread at the Eurasian continent level, local central European spreading patterns suggest historic west to east spread followed by more recent east to west spread. The phylogenetic and network analyses indicate TBEV ingressions from the Czech Republic and Slovakia into Germany via landscape features (Danube river system), biogenic factors (birds, red deer) and anthropogenic factors. The identification of endemic foci showing local genetic diversity is of paramount importance to the field as these will be a prerequisite for in-depth analysis of focal TBEV maintenance and long-distance TBEV spread.
Resumo:
In the marine Jurassic deposits of Europe, a group of marine crocodilians, the Thalattosuchia, belongs to the frequently found reptiles. Thalattosuchia are widely spread in Central Europe from the Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous, and some taxa are also distributed worldwide. The task of the work was to examine all taxa known from the Liassic of Europe. The most frequently known taxa Steneosaurus bollensis and Pelagosaurus typus are anatomically revised. New discoveries at the skull of Pelagosaurus typus e.g., the fact of a partly paired frontal are described by means of computed tomography investigations. In addition, juvenile specimens of this taxon are studied in detail for the first time. The rarely occurring taxon Platysuchus multiscrobiculatus is anatomically described in detail for the first time. It shows both in the skull and in the postcranial material morphological differences to Steneosaurus bollensis and Pelagosaurus typus. Thus Pl. multiscrobiculatus possesses, e.g., an ilium with a deeper acetabulum and a femur with a distinctly flexed femoral head. A juvenile specimen of Pl. multiscrobiculatus is now discovered and is described in parts for the first time, too. Furthermore, Steneosaurus gracilirostris and Steneosaurus brevior known from Lower Jurassic deposits of England are examined and in parts revised. In this work, Steneosaurs brevior is discovered with one specimen from the Upper Liassic of Holzmaden, Germany for the first time, and provides new evidence for the palaeobiogeographical distribution of the taxon. Because of the high number of investigated specimens, it is possible to study ontogenetic development from juvenile to adult stage in Steneosaurus bollensis, Pelagosaurus typus, and Platysuchus multiscrobiculatus. Biometric data are collected from thalattosuchians and extant crocodilians (e.g. Gavialis gangeticus) to investigate intraspecific variation, ontogenetic development, and taxa differentiation. The skulls of Platysuchus multiscrobiculatus and Steneosaurus bollensis are reconstructed three-dimensionally as wax models. The skull reconstructions form the basis of the jaw muscle restoration of Steneosaurus bollensis in connection with comparative studies at extant crocodilians. By means of functional morphologic analysis of the jaw musculature, the dentition, and the locomotor system of S. bollensis, possible conclusions are drawn for the prey options and the hunting behaviour. To clarify the relationships within the Thalattosuchia, a computer-based cladistic phylogenetic in-group analyse of 25 Thalattosuchia taxa is performed. For the analysis, following Thalattosuchia taxa are studied likewise at original material for comparisons: Metriorhynchus superciliosus, Metriorhynchus hastifer, Metriorhynchus leedsi, Geosaurus gracilis, Geosaurus giganteus, Teleidosaurus calvadosi, Teleidosaurus gaudryi, Teleosaurus cadomensis, Teleosaurus geoffroyi, Steneosaurus priscus, Steneosaurus edwardsi, Steneosaurus heberti, Steneosaurus leedsi, Steneosaurus boutilieri, Steneosaurus megarhinus, Steneosaurus obtusidens, and Machimosaurus hugii. The phylogenetic in-group analyse based on 115 characters, reveals a sister-group relationship of the monophyletic Teleosauridae and monophyletic Metriorhynchidae. Within the groups, some taxa are probably paraphyletic. The taxon Pelagosaurus typus is nested inside the Teleosauridae and not outside or within the Metriorhynchidae, as many authors suggested it so far. Based on these results, a tentative palaeobiogeographical-evolutionary scenario is developed.
Resumo:
This article deals with the European minorities in the period between the two world wars and with their final expulsion from nation-states at the end of World War II. First, the tensions which arose between the organised minorities and the successor states of the Habsburg Monarchy are accounted for primarily by the argument that the various minorities located within the successor states had already undergone a comprehensive processes of nationalisation within the Habsburg Empire. Therefore they were able to resist assimilation by the political elites of the new titular nations (Czechs, Poles, Rumanians, Serbs). A second topic is that of the use made of the minorities issue by Adolf Hitler to help achieve his expansionist aims. The minorities issue was central to the international destabilisation of interwar Europe. Finally, the mass expulsion of minorities (above all, Germans) after the end of the war is explained by strategic considerations on the part of the Allied powers as well as involving the nation-state regimes. It is argued, against a commonly held view, that German atrocities during the period of occupation had little to do with the decision to expel most ethnic Germans from their territories of settlement in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. The article shows that it is necessary to treat national minorities in the first half of the twentieth century as a single phenomenon which shares similar features across the various nation-states of East-Central Europe.