Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Optimizing a piezometric network in the estimation of the groundwater budget: a case study from a crystalline-rock watershed in southern India

An estimate of the groundwater budget at the catchment scale is extremely important for the sustainable management of available water resources. Water resources are generally subjected to over-exploitation for agricultural and domestic purposes in agrarian economies like India. The double water-table fluctuation method is a reliable method for calculating the water budget in semi-arid crystalline rock areas. Extensive measurements of water levels from a dense network before and after the monsoon rainfall were made in a 53 km(2)atershed in southern India and various components of the water balance were then calculated. Later, water level data underwent geostatistical analyses to determine the priority and/or redundancy of each measurement point using a cross-validation method. An optimal network evolved from these analyses. The network was then used in re-calculation of the water-balance components. It was established that such an optimized network provides far fewer measurement points without considerably changing the conclusions regarding groundwater budget. This exercise is helpful in reducing the time and expenditure involved in exhaustive piezometric surveys and also in determining the water budget for large watersheds (watersheds greater than 50 km(2)).

Semi-empirical procedures for estimation of residual velocity and ballistic limit for impact on mild steel plates by projectiles

This paper deals with the development of simplified semi-empirical relations for the prediction of residual velocities of small calibre projectiles impacting on mild steel target plates, normally or at an angle, and the ballistic limits for such plates. It has been shown, for several impact cases for which test results on perforation of mild steel plates are available, that most of the existing semi-empirical relations which are applicable only to normal projectile impact do not yield satisfactory estimations of residual velocity. Furthermore, it is difficult to quantify some of the empirical parameters present in these relations for a given problem. With an eye towards simplicity and ease of use, two new regression-based relations employing standard material parameters have been discussed here for predicting residual velocity and ballistic limit for both normal and oblique impact. The latter expressions differ in terms of usage of quasi-static or strain rate-dependent average plate material strength. Residual velocities yielded by the present semi-empirical models compare well with the experimental results. Additionally, ballistic limits from these relations show close correlation with the corresponding finite element-based predictions.

Prediction of estrus cyclicity in Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) through estimation of fecal progesterone metabolite: development of an enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assay

Asian elephants (Dephas maximus), prominent ``flagship species'', arelisted under the category of endangered species (EN - A2c, ver. 3.1, IUCN Red List 2009) and there is a need for their conservation This requires understanding demographic and reproductive dynamics of the species. Monitoring reproductive status of any species is traditionally being carried out through invasive blood sampling and this is restrictive for large animals such as wild or semi-captive elephants due to legal. ethical, and practical reasons Hence. there is a need for a non-invasive technique to assess reproductive cyclicity profiles of elephants. which will help in the species' conservation strategies In this study. we developed an indirect competitive enzyme linked immuno-sorbent assay (ELISA) to estimate the concentration of one of the progesterone-metabolites i.e, allopregnanolone (5 alpha-P-3OH) in fecal samples of As elephants We validated the assay which had a sensitivity of 0.25 mu M at 90% binding with an EC50 value of 1 37 mu M Using female elephants. kept under semi-captive conditions in the forest camps of Mudumalar Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu and Bandipur National Park, Karnataka, India. we measured fecal progesterone-metabolite (5 alpha-P-3OH) concentrations in six an and showed their clear correlation with those of scrum progesterone measured by a standard radio-immuno assay. Statistical analyses using a Linear Mixed Effect model showed a positive correlation (P < 0 1) between the profiles of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH (range 0 5-10 mu g/g) and serum progesterone (range: 0 1-1 8 ng/mL) Therefore, our studies show, for the first time, that the fecal progesterone-metabolite assay could be exploited to predict estrus cyclicity and to potentially assess the reproductive status of captive and free-ranging female Asian elephants, thereby helping to plan their breeding strategy (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc.All rights reserved.

New colorimetric method for the estimation of aldehyde derivatives of vitamin A

A new colorimetric method for the estimation of aldehyde derivatives of vitamin A is described. The assay depends upon the formation of colored derivatives of the vitamin A aldehydes by reaction with p-aminobenzoic acid or p-aminosalicylic acid in the presence of 2.0 N hydrochloric acid.

A colorimetric method for the estimation of phloroglucinol

1. 1. A simple method has been devised for the estimation of phloroglucinol based on the formation of an intense colored compound with a modified Ehrlich reagent in the presence of trichloroacetic acid. Some factors affecting the formation of color have been studied. 2. 2. Careful regulation of trichloroacetic acid content in the system permits its estimation in 1–15 μg in the micro range and in 10–50 μg in the macro range. Phloroglucinol lends itself to ready separation by paper chromatography and estimation after clution from paper.

Folin-Ciocalteu reagent for the estimation of siderochromes

1. A simple method has been devised for the estimation of siderochromes based on their reaction with Folin-Ciocalteu reagent to give a blue complex under alkaline conditions. 2. The applicability of the method to biological systems has been tested with N. crassa and concentrations in the ranges 5–50 μg and 1–10 μg can be accurately estimated with an over-all recovery of 95%.

An acid method for the volumetric estimation of water-soluble dithiocarbamates

Dithiocarbamates have been estimated previously by reaction with a strong acid, the carbon disulfide evolved being converted into a xanthate and the latter estimated iodimetrically. In the present method, a water-soluble dithiocarbamate is reacted with a decinormal mineral acid and the excess acid is determined to compute the amount of dithiocarbamate present. This method is applicable for the determination of a dithiocarbamate in a mixture containing thiuram disulfide.

Jodimetric estimation of water-soluble dithiocarbamates

Iodimetric estimation of dialkyl dithiocarbamate in alcoholic solution is not accurate. The method has not met with success for the water-soluble dithiocarbamates before. A simple and accurate iodimetric method has been developed for the estimation of water-soluble dithiocarbamates. The success of the method is due to the removal of the oxidation product which interferes during the titration with iodine.

Estimation of the critical viscous sublayer in heat transfer problems

Imagining a disturbance made on a compressible boundary layer with the help of a heat source, the critical viscous sublayer, through which the skin friction at any point on a surface is connected with the heat transferred from a heated element embedded in it, has been estimated. Under similar conditions of external flow (Ray1)) the ratio of the critical viscous sublayer to the undisturbed boundary layer thickness is about one-tenth in the laminar case and one hundredth in the turbulent case. These results are similar to those (cf.1)) found in shock wave boundary layer interaction problems.

Potassium phosphate as a reagent for the gravimetric estimation of lithium

Previous attempts for the quantitative estimation of lithium as orthophosphate, employing an alkali metal phosphate, have not been successful. A method, is described for the estimation of lithium as trilithium phosphate from 60% ethyl alcohol solution at 65° to 70° C., employing potassium phosphate reagent, at pH 9.5. The method is applicable in the presence of varying amounts of sodium and/or potassium cations and chloride, sulfate, nitrate, and phosphate anions.

Estimation of signals in colored non gaussian noise based on Gaussian Mixture models

Non-Gaussianity of signals/noise often results in significant performance degradation for systems, which are designed using the Gaussian assumption. So non-Gaussian signals/noise require a different modelling and processing approach. In this paper, we discuss a new Bayesian estimation technique for non-Gaussian signals corrupted by colored non Gaussian noise. The method is based on using zero mean finite Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for signal and noise. The estimation is done using an adaptive non-causal nonlinear filtering technique. The method involves deriving an estimator in terms of the GMM parameters, which are in turn estimated using the EM algorithm. The proposed filter is of finite length and offers computational feasibility. The simulations show that the proposed method gives a significant improvement compared to the linear filter for a wide variety of noise conditions, including impulsive noise. We also claim that the estimation of signal using the correlation with past and future samples leads to reduced mean squared error as compared to signal estimation based on past samples only.