Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Strabismus, visual acuity, and uncorrected refractive error in Portuguese children aged 6 to 11 years

Introduction: Visual anomalies that affect school-age children represent an important public health problem. Data on the prevalence are lacking in Portugal but is needed for planning vision services. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of strabismus, decreased visual acuity, and uncorrected refractive error in Portuguese children aged 6 to 11 years. Methods and materials: A cross-sectional study was carried out on a sample of 672 school-age children (7.69 ± 1.19 years). Children received an orthoptic assessment (visual acuity, ocular alignment, and ocular movements) and non-cycloplegic autorefraction. Results: After orthoptic assessment, 13.8% of children were considered abnormal (n = 93). Manifest strabismus was found in 4% of the children. Rates of esotropia (2.1%) were slightly higher than exotropia (1.8%). Strabismus rates were not statistically significant different per sex (p = 0.681) and grade (p = 0.228). Decreased visual acuity at distance was present in 11.3% of children. Visual acuity ≤20/66 (0.5 logMAR) was found in 1.3% of the children. We also found that 10.3% of children had an uncorrected refractive error. Conclusions: Strabismus affects a small proportion of the Portuguese school-age children. Decreased visual acuity and uncorrected refractive error affected a significant proportion of school-age children. New policies need to be developed to address this public health problem.

Bit error models

The use of bit error models in communication simulation has been widely studied. In this technical report we present three models: the Independent Channel Model; the Gilbert-Elliot Model and the Burst-Error Periodic Model.

Perceptually driven video error protection using a distributed source coding approach

In video communication systems, the video signals are typically compressed and sent to the decoder through an error-prone transmission channel that may corrupt the compressed signal, causing the degradation of the final decoded video quality. In this context, it is possible to enhance the error resilience of typical predictive video coding schemes using as inspiration principles and tools from an alternative video coding approach, the so-called Distributed Video Coding (DVC), based on the Distributed Source Coding (DSC) theory. Further improvements in the decoded video quality after error-prone transmission may also be obtained by considering the perceptual relevance of the video content, as distortions occurring in different regions of a picture have a different impact on the user's final experience. In this context, this paper proposes a Perceptually Driven Error Protection (PDEP) video coding solution that enhances the error resilience of a state-of-the-art H.264/AVC predictive video codec using DSC principles and perceptual considerations. To increase the H.264/AVC error resilience performance, the main technical novelties brought by the proposed video coding solution are: (i) design of an improved compressed domain perceptual classification mechanism; (ii) design of an improved transcoding tool for the DSC-based protection mechanism; and (iii) integration of a perceptual classification mechanism in an H.264/AVC compliant codec with a DSC-based error protection mechanism. The performance results obtained show that the proposed PDEP video codec provides a better performing alternative to traditional error protection video coding schemes, notably Forward Error Correction (FEC)-based schemes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error control on spectral data of four-wave mixing based on a-SiC technology

In this paper we exploit the nonlinear property of the SiC multilayer devices to design an optical processor for error detection that enables reliable delivery of spectral data of four-wave mixing over unreliable communication channels. The SiC optical processor is realized by using double pin/pin a-SiC:H photodetector with front and back biased optical gating elements. Visible pulsed signals are transmitted together at different bit sequences. The combined optical signal is analyzed. Data show that the background acts as selector that picks one or more states by splitting portions of the input multi optical signals across the front and back photodiodes. Boolean operations such as EXOR and three bit addition are demonstrated optically, showing that when one or all of the inputs are present, the system will behave as an XOR gate representing the SUM. When two or three inputs are on, the system acts as AND gate indicating the present of the CARRY bit. Additional parity logic operations are performed using four incoming pulsed communication channels that are transmitted and checked for errors together. As a simple example of this approach, we describe an all-optical processor for error detection and then provide an experimental demonstration of this idea. (C) 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Optical processor based on a-SiC technology for spectral data error control

The SiC optical processor for error detection and correction is realized by using double pin/pin a-SiC:H photodetector with front and back biased optical gating elements. Data shows that the background act as selector that pick one or more states by splitting portions of the input multi optical signals across the front and back photodiodes. Boolean operations such as exclusive OR (EXOR) and three bit addition are demonstrated optically with a combination of such switching devices, showing that when one or all of the inputs are present the output will be amplified, the system will behave as an XOR gate representing the SUM. When two or three inputs are on, the system acts as AND gate indicating the present of the CARRY bit. Additional parity logic operations are performed by use of the four incoming pulsed communication channels that are transmitted and checked for errors together. As a simple example of this approach, we describe an all optical processor for error detection and correction and then, provide an experimental demonstration of this fault tolerant reversible system, in emerging nanotechnology.

Utilização de QR Codes em museologia

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Comunicação e Artes

Automatic delimitation of the clinical region of interest in ultra-wide field of view images of the retina

Retinal ultra-wide field of view images (fundus images) provides the visu-alization of a large part of the retina though, artifacts may appear in those images. Eyelashes and eyelids often cover the clinical region of interest and worse, eye-lashes can be mistaken with arteries and/or veins when those images are put through automatic diagnosis or segmentation software creating, in those cases, the appearance of false positives results. Correcting this problem, the first step in the development of qualified auto-matic diseases diagnosis programs can be done and in that way the development of an objective tool to assess diseases eradicating the human error from those processes can also be achieved. In this work the development of a tool that automatically delimitates the clinical region of interest is proposed by retrieving features from the images that will be analyzed by an automatic classifier. This automatic classifier will evaluate the information and will decide which part of the image is of interest and which part contains artifacts. The results were validated by implementing a software in C# language and validated through a statistical analysis. From those results it was confirmed that the methodology presented is capable of detecting artifacts and selecting the clin-ical region of interest in fundus images of the retina.

Tracking error of exchange-traded funds: Evidence from the UK

This paper is mainly concerned with the tracking accuracy of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) but also evaluates their performance and pricing efficiency. The findings show that ETFs offer virtually the same return but exhibit higher volatility than their benchmark. It seems that the pricing efficiency, which should come from the creation and redemption process, does not fully hold as equity ETFs show consistent price premiums. The tracking error of the funds is generally small and is decreasing over time. The risk of the ETF, daily price volatility and the total expense ratio explain a large part of the tracking error. Trading volume, fund size, bid-ask spread and average price premium or discount did not have an impact on the tracking error. Finally, it is concluded that market volatility and the tracking error are positively correlated.

The efficacy of the old way/new way methodology on the correction of an automated technical error and its impact on the athlete’s psychological skills : Case study in tennis

The aim of this study was to evaluated the efficacy of the Old Way/New Way methodology (Lyndon, 1989/2000) with regard to the permanent correction of a consolidated and automated technical error experienced by a tennis athlete (who is 18 years old and has been engaged in practice mode for about 6 years) in the execution of serves. Additionally, the study assessed the impact of intervention on the athlete’s psychological skills. An individualized intervention was designed using strategies that aimed to produce a) a detailed analysis of the error using video images; b) an increased kinaesthetic awareness; c) a reactivation of memory error; d) the discrimination and generalization of the correct motor action. The athlete’s psychological skills were measured with a Portuguese version of the Psychological Skills Inventory for Sports (Cruz & Viana, 1993). After the intervention, the technical error was corrected with great efficacy and an increase in the athlete’s psychological skills was verified. This study demonstrates the methodology’s efficacy, which is consistent with the effects of this type of intervention in different contexts.

Modelo integrado de cuantificación del nivel de significación y de asignación del error tolerable en procesos de auditoría de estados contables

El objetivo que persigue un proceso de auditoría de estados contables es la comunicación por parte del auditor de una conclusión en relación al grado de razonabilidad con que tales estados reflejan la situación patrimonial, económica y financiera del ente de acuerdo a los criterios plasmados en las normas contables de referencia a ser utilizadas. El hecho que un auditor emita una conclusión errónea como consecuencia de su labor puede implicar la asunción de responsabilidades profesionales, civiles y penales como consecuencia de reclamos de usuarios de los estados contables que pudieran haberse visto perjudicados como consecuencia de la emisión de la conclusión errónea. Las normas contables a nivel nacional e internacional admiten la existencia de errores u omisiones en la información contenida en los estados contables, en la medida que tales desvíos no provoquen en los usuarios interesados en tales estados una decisión distinta a la que tomarían en caso de no existir los errores u omisiones aludidos. De lo expuesto en el párrafo anterior surge la cabal importancia que la determinación del nivel de significación total (nivel de desvíos admitidos por los usuarios de los estados contables en la información por ellos contenida) adquiere en los procesos de auditoría, como así también la asignación de tal nivel entre los distintos componentes de los estados contables (asignación del error tolerable) a los efectos de que los auditores eviten asumir responsabilidades de índole profesional, civil y/o penal. Hasta el momento no se conoce la existencia de modelos matemáticos que respalden de modo objetivo y verificable el cálculo del nivel de significación total y la asignación del error tolerable entre los distintos elementos conformantes de los estados contables. Entendemos que el desarrollo e integración de un modelo de cuantificación del nivel de significación total y de asignación del error tolerable tiene las siguientes repercusiones: 1 – Representaría para el auditor un elemento que respalde el modo de cuantificación del nivel de significación y la asignación del error tolerable entre los componentes de los estados contables. 2 – Permitiría que los auditores reduzcan las posibilidades de asumir responsabilidades de carácter profesional, civil y/o penales como consecuencia de su labor. 3 – Representaría un principio de avance a los efectos de que los organismos emisores de normas de auditoría a nivel nacional e internacional recepten elementos a los efectos de fijar directrices en relación al cálculo del nivel de significación y de asignación del error tolerable. 4 - Eliminaría al cálculo del nivel de significación como una barrera que afecte la comparabilidad de los estados contables.

Über die Automorphismengruppe extremaler Codes der Längen 96 und 120

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2012

Non-classical error bounds in the central limit theorem

The classical central limit theorem states the uniform convergence of the distribution functions of the standardized sums of independent and identically distributed square integrable real-valued random variables to the standard normal distribution function. While first versions of the central limit theorem are already due to Moivre (1730) and Laplace (1812), a systematic study of this topic started at the beginning of the last century with the fundamental work of Lyapunov (1900, 1901). Meanwhile, extensions of the central limit theorem are available for a multitude of settings. This includes, e.g., Banach space valued random variables as well as substantial relaxations of the assumptions of independence and identical distributions. Furthermore, explicit error bounds are established and asymptotic expansions are employed to obtain better approximations. Classical error estimates like the famous bound of Berry and Esseen are stated in terms of absolute moments of the random summands and therefore do not reflect a potential closeness of the distributions of the single random summands to a normal distribution. Non-classical approaches take this issue into account by providing error estimates based on, e.g., pseudomoments. The latter field of investigation was initiated by work of Zolotarev in the 1960's and is still in its infancy compared to the development of the classical theory. For example, non-classical error bounds for asymptotic expansions seem not to be available up to now ...