803 resultados para Ellsberg paradox


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This paper examines two concepts, social vulnerability and social resilience, often used to describe people and their relationship to a disaster. Social vulnerability is the exposure to harm resulting from demographic and socioeconomic factors that heighten the exposure to disaster. Social resilience is the ability to avoid disaster, cope with change and recover from disaster. Vulnerability to a space and social resilience through society is explored through a focus on the elderly, a group sometimes regarded as having low resilience while being particularly vulnerable. Our findings explore the degree to which an elderly group exposed to coastal flood risk exhibits social resilience through both cognitive strategies, such as risk perception and self-perception, as well as through coping mechanisms, such as accepting change and self-organisation. These attenuate and accentuate the resilience of individuals through their own preparations as well as their communities' preparations and also contribute to the delusion of resilience which leads individuals to act as if they are more resilient than they are in reality, which we call negative resilience. Thus, we draw attention to three main areas: the degree to which social vulnerability can disguise its social resilience; the role played by cognitive strategies and coping mechanisms on an individual's social resilience; and the high risk aspects of social resilience. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Although slow waves of the electroencephalogram (EEG) have been associated with attentional processes, the functional significance of the alpha component in the EEG (8.1–12 Hz) remains uncertain. Conventionally, synchronisation in the alpha frequency range is taken to be a marker of cognitive inactivity, i.e. ‘cortical idling’. However, it has been suggested that alpha may index the active inhibition of sensory information during internally directed attentional tasks such as mental imagery. More recently, this idea has been amended to encompass the notion of alpha synchronisation as a means of inhibition of non-task relevant cortical areas irrespective of the direction of attention. Here we test the adequacy of the one idling and two inhibition hypotheses about alpha. In two experiments we investigated the relation between alpha and internally vs. externally directed attention using mental imagery vs. sensory-intake paradigms. Results from both experiments showed a clear relationship between alpha and both attentional factors and increased task demands. At various scalp sites alpha amplitudes were greater during internally directed attention and during increased load, results incompatible with alpha reflecting cortical idling and more in keeping with suggestions of active inhibition necessary for internally driven mental operations.

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This article begins by setting out the human rights provisions that apply to social media expression. It then provides insight into the part social media plays within our society by analysing the social media landscape and how it facilitates a ‘purer’ form of expression. The social media paradox is explored through the lens of current societal issues and concerns regarding the use of social media and how these have manifested into litigation. It concludes by analysing the tension that the application of an array of criminal legislation and jurisprudence has created with freedom of expression, and whether this can successfully mitigated by the Director of Public Prosecution’s Interim Guidelines.

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This article focuses on the involvement and management of spontaneous volunteers (SVs). It develops a new theory—which we call the “involvement/exclusion” paradox—about a situation which is frequently manifested when SVs converge in times of disaster. After reviewing research and policy guidance relating to spontaneous volunteering, we present findings from a study of responses to winter flood episodes in England. Taking together the empirical findings and the literature, the article analyzes elements inherent in the involvement/exclusion paradox and develops a conceptual model to illustrate and explain the paradox. Implications for managers and future research are discussed.

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The Hungarian mixed-member electoral system, adopted in 1989, is one of the world’s most complicated electoral systems, and, as this paper demonstrates, it suffers from the "population paradox". In particular, the governing coalition may lose as many as 8 seats either by getting more votes or by the opposition obtaining fewer votes on each territorial list.

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The internalisation level of sustainability issues varies among topics and among countries. Companies give up less internalised issues for more internalised ones. Discrepancies between legal, market and cultural internalisation lead to different escape strategies: firms develop a high level environmental management system and they have nice sustainability policy and reports. These achievements cover the fact that their total emission keeps increasing and they do not proceed in solving the most crucial global community or corporate governance problems. ‘Escaper’ firms are often qualified as ‘leading’ ones, as a current stream of research is also ‘escapist’: it puts too much emphasis on sustainability efforts as compared to sustainability performance. Genuine strategies focus on hardcore sustainability issues and absolute effects rather than on issues easily solved and having high PR effects. They allow for growth in innovative firms, if they crowd out less efficient or more polluting ones. They produce positive environmental value added when sector average eco-efficiency is used as benchmark and do not accelerate market expansion and consumerism.

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A versenyzői munkaerőpiac hagyományos kereslet-kínálati modellje az egyensúlyi bérszintet meghaladó minimálbér következményeként az egyensúlyi bérszint mellettinél alacsonyabb foglalkoztatást jósol; minél magasabb a minimálbér, annál alacsonyabbat. Empirikus vizsgálatok szerint ugyanakkor a minimálbér-emelés nem feltétlenül csökkenti a foglalkoztatást - ezt nevezik minimálbér-paradoxonnak -, ami legkézenfekvőbben a munkáltatók munkaerő-piaci monopszonerejével látszik magyarázhatónak. Ezzel szemben az a gondolatkísérlet, amelyről ez a cikk beszámol, általánosabb érvényű, versenyzői munkaerőpiacot feltételező magyarázat kidolgozására irányul. / === / In the conventional textbook demand/supply model of competitive labour markets, the introduction of a minimum wage above market-clearing level must reduce employment. Empirical findings suggest, however, that this may not always be the case, a finding most readily explained by monopsonistic competition in the labour market. The experimental line of thought reported here explores an alternative root, interpreting the "minimum-wage paradox" as the outcome of a competitive labour market that displays friction.

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Cikkünkben a vállalkozók külső finanszírozásának modelljét terjesztjük ki arra az - irodalom által eddig nem tárgyalt - esetre, amikor a vállalkozónak van nem fizető vevője. Szerződéselméleti megközelítésünkben a vállalkozó hitelképességére vonatkozó információ aszimmetrikus a tranzakcióban részt vevő felek között, s ez morális kockázatnak ad teret. Megfigyelhető, hogy ilyenkor a pontosan fizető vevők számára is hitelszűke lép fel. A vállalkozó és a finanszírozó közötti optimális szerződés nem fizető vevő hatására további hitelszűkösséget generál. Két esetet vizsgálunk: az egyikben a vállalkozó információs előnyben van a vevő nemfizetésére vonatkozóan, a másikban nincs ilyen előny. A két modellváltozat alapján információs paradoxon jellemzi a kialakuló finanszírozási helyzetet: a vállalkozó kisebb összegű hitelhez jut az említett információs előnye esetén, mint amikor közte és a finanszírozó között szimmetrikus az információ. A modell azt a - magyar kis- és középvállalkozóknál látott - jelenséget írja le, amikor nem transzparens a szállító-vevő viszonya, és a finanszírozó bank e miatt az információs hátrány miatt kevesebb hitelt nyújt kis- és középvállalati ügyfeleinek. _____ The model of external financing of the firm is extended here to cases where there may be defaults on account receivables. Information asymmetry between entrepreneur and lender on a firm's creditworthiness leads to moral hazard and credit rationing, even in the absence of default risk. The authors show an optimal debt contract that formulates the situation, and focus on two cases: where the entrepreneur has an information advantage on defaults on receivables, and where the information is symmetric. A comparison of these cases revealed a paradoxical knowledge issue in external financing: a better informed entrepreneur may be able to afford a smaller financing ability. The model describes a frequent phenomenon in small businesses, when the relationship between buyer and seller lacks transparency, and lenders offer lower amount of lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.

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The change of ambient temperature plays a key role in determining the run of the annual Lyme season. Our aim was to explain the apparent contradiction between the annual unimodal Lyme borreliosis incidence and the bimodal Ixodes ricinus tick activity run – both observed in Hungary – by distinguishing the temperaturedependent seasonal human and tick activity, the temperature-independent factors, and the multiplicative effect of human outdoor activity in summer holiday, using data from Hungary in the period of 1998–2012. This separation was verified by modeling the Lyme incidence based on the separated factors, and comparing the run of the observed and modeled incidence. We demonstrated the bimodality of tick season by using the originally unimodal Lyme incidence data. To model the outdoor human activity, the amount of camping guest nights was used, which showed an irregular run from mid-June to September. The human outdoor activity showed a similar exponential correlation with ambient temperature to that what the relative incidence did. It was proved that summer holiday has great influence on Lyme incidence.

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The change of ambient temperature plays a key role in determining the run of the annual Lyme season. Our aim was to explain the apparent contradiction between the annual unimodal Lyme borreliosis incidence and the bimodal Ixodes ricinus tick activity run – both observed in Hungary – by distinguishing the temperaturedependent seasonal human and tick activity, the temperature-independent factors, and the multiplicative effect of human outdoor activity in summer holiday, using data from Hungary in the period of 1998–2012. This separation was verified by modeling the Lyme incidence based on the separated factors, and comparing the run of the observed and modeled incidence. We demonstrated the bimodality of tick season by using the originally unimodal Lyme incidence data. To model the outdoor human activity, the amount of camping guest nights was used, which showed an irregular run from mid-June to September. The human outdoor activity showed a similar exponential correlation with ambient temperature to that what the relative incidence did. It was proved that summer holiday has great influence on Lyme incidence.

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The authors have analysed the economic growth and its determining factors in countries of the European Union, particularly in Hungary and Ukraine. We applied quantitative methods by analysing topic related database. We have found that the Central-Eastern European Periphery has not finished its transition, and this change is heading in the direction of the Southern Periphery of the European Union. As the Southern Periphery is the area of economic crises right now, it is obvious that something should be done in order to avoid falling to the same fate for the Central-Eastern European Periphery. The authors introduced a new production function and with its help they identified the bottlenecks of growth in Hungary and Ukraine, namely the organizational and human capital that in its present development stage, do not correspond to the needs of creating state of the art larger companies. The present crisis pushes both countries to postpone long-term developments, such as investments into human capital, and in this way makes the solution of the crisis more difficult.

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Today’s business leaders must constantly review and develop their firm’s abilities to adapt to and benefit from external changes. Dynamic capabilities are the capacity of an organization to purposefully create, extend or modify its resource base. They enable it to exploit business, technological and market opportunities and adapt to market changes, an ability more often observed in highly dynamic industries, such as consumer electronics or telecommunications. Using the case study method, this article identifies dynamic capabilities in traditional, less dynamic industries when faced with a sudden drop of revenue. Four distinct routines emerge, namely structure and practices enduring time-sensitive strategic decision-making by the tice, and a culture encouraging learning and coevolving. Seemingly strategic paradox objectives encourage the management team to question the status quo and, when managed well, transform the tensions between old and new into an ability to advance superior ideas faster.

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Peer reviewed