Dating the Thera (Santorin) eruption: evidence versus poor scholarship, and the end of the low chronology

The date of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption of the Thera volcano has provoked much debate among archaeologists, not least in a recent issue of Antiquity (‘Bronze Age catastrophe and modern controversy: dating the Santorini eruption’, March 2014). Here, the authors respond to those recent contributions, citing evidence that closes the gap between the conclusions offered by previous typological, stratigraphic and radiometric dating techniques. They reject the need to choose between alternative approaches to the problem and make a case for the synchronisation of eastern Mediterranean and Egyptian chronologies with agreement on a ‘high’ date in the late seventeenth century BC for the Thera eruption.

Intolerance of uncertainty predicts fear extinction in amygdala-ventromedial prefrontal cortical circuitry

Background: Coordination of activity between the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) is important for fear-extinction learning. Aberrant recruitment of this circuitry is associated with anxiety disorders. Here, we sought to determine if individual differences in future threat uncertainty sensitivity, a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underly compromised recruitment of fear extinction circuitry. Twenty-two healthy subjects completed a cued fear conditioning task with acquisition and extinction phases. During the task, pupil dilation, skin conductance response, and functional magnetic resonance imaging were acquired. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction learning by splitting the extinction phase into early and late extinction. Threat uncertainty sensitivity was measured using self-reported intolerance of uncertainty (IU). Results: During early extinction learning, we found low IU scores to be associated with larger skin conductance responses and right amygdala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU scores were associated with no skin conductance discrimination and greater activity within the right amygdala to previously learned safety cues. In late extinction learning, low IU scores were associated with successful inhibition of previously learned threat, reflected in comparable skin conductance response and right amgydala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whilst high IU scores were associated with continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance and amygdala activity to threat vs. safety cues. In addition, high IU scores were associated with greater vmPFC activity to threat vs. safety cues in late extinction. Similar patterns of IU and extinction learning were found for pupil dilation. The results were specific for IU and did not generalize to self-reported trait anxiety. Conclusions: Overall, the neural and psychophysiological patterns observed here suggest high IU individuals to disproportionately generalize threat during times of uncertainty, which subsequently compromises fear extinction learning. More broadly, these findings highlight the potential of intolerance of uncertainty-based mechanisms to help understand pathological fear in anxiety disorders and inform potential treatment targets.

Dating WF16: exploring the chronology of a Pre-Pottery Neolithic A settlement in the Southern Levant

A pre-requisite for understanding the transition to the Neolithic in the Levant is the establishment of a robust chronology, most notably for the late Epi-Palaeolithic and Pre-Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA) periods. In this contribution we undertake a dating analysis of the Pre-Pottery Neolithic site of WF16, southern Jordan, drawing on a sample of 46 AMS 14C dates. We utilise Bayesian methods to quantify an old wood effect to provide an offset that we factor into chronological models for a number of individual structures at WF16 and for the settlement as a whole. In doing so we address the influence of slope variations in the calibration curve and expose the significance of sediment and sample redeposition within sites of this nature. We conclude that for the excavated deposits at WF16 human activity is likely to have started by c. 11.84 ka cal bp and lasted for at least c. 1590 years, ceasing by c. 10.24 ka cal bp. This is marked by a particularly intensive period of activity lasting for c. 350 years centred on 11.25 ka cal bp followed by less intensive activity lasting a further c. 880 years. The study reveals the potential of WF16 as a laboratory to explore methodological issues concerning 14C dating of early Neolithic sites in arid, erosional environments.

Which intrinsic traits predict vulnerability to extinction depends on the actual threatening processes

Understanding what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others is an important challenge for conservation. Many comparative analyses have addressed this issue exploring how intrinsic and extrinsic traits associate with general estimates of vulnerability. However, these general estimates do not consider the actual threats that drive species to extinction and hence, are more difficult to translate into effective management. We provide an updated description of the types and spatial distribution of threats that affect mammals globally using data from the IUCN for 5941 species of mammals. Using these data we explore the links between intrinsic species traits and specific threats in order to identify key intrinsic features associated with particular drivers of extinction. We find that families formed by small-size habitat specialists are more likely to be threatened by habitat-modifying processes; whereas, families formed by larger mammals with small litter sizes are more likely to be threatened by processes that directly affect survival. These results highlight the importance of considering the actual threatening process in comparative studies. We also discuss the need to standardize and rank threat importance in global assessments such as the IUCN Red List to improve our ability to understand what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others.

Variability in life-history and ecological traits is a buffer against extinction in mammals

Anthropogenic degradation of the world's ecosystems is leading to a widespread and accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, not all species respond equally to existing threats, raising the question: what makes a species more vulnerable to extinction? We propose that higher intraspecific variability may reduce the risk of extinction, as different individuals and populations within a species may respond differently to occurring threats. Supporting this prediction, our results show that mammalian species with more variable adult body masses, litter sizes, sexual maturity ages and population densities are less vulnerable to extinction. Our findings reveal the role of local variation among populations, particularly of large mammals, as a buffering mechanism against extinction, and emphasise the importance of considering trait variation in comparative analyses and conservation management.

Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap

1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species’ traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species’ traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14–99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases.

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.

Nothing is safe: intolerance of uncertainty is associated with compromised fear extinction learning

Extinction-resistant fear is considered to be a central feature of pathological anxiety. Here we sought to determine if individual differences in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underlies compromised fear extinction. We tested this hypothesis by recording electrodermal activity in 38 healthy participants during fear acquisition and extinction. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction, by examining early and late extinction learning. During early extinction, low IU was associated with larger skin conductance responses to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU was associated with skin conductance responding to both threat and safety cues, but no cue discrimination. During late extinction, low IU showed no difference in skin conductance between learned threat and safety cues, whilst high IU predicted continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance to threat vs. safety cues. These findings suggest a critical role of uncertainty-based mechanisms in the maintenance of learned fear.

Larger brain size indirectly increases vulnerability to extinction in mammals

Although previous studies have addressed the question of why large brains evolved, we have limited understanding of potential beneficial or detrimental effects of enlarged brain size in the face of current threats. Using novel phylogenetic path analysis, we evaluated how brain size directly and indirectly, via its effects on life-history and ecology, influences vulnerability to extinction across 474 mammalian species. We found that larger brains, controlling for body size, indirectly increase vulnerability to extinction by extending the gestation period, increasing weaning age, and limiting litter sizes. However, we found no evidence of direct, beneficial or detrimental, effects of brain size on vulnerability to extinction, even when we explicitly considered the different types of threats that lead to vulnerability. Order-specific analyses revealed qualitatively similar patterns for Carnivora and Artiodactyla. Interestingly, for Primates, we found that larger brain size was directly (and indirectly) associated with increased vulnerability to extinction. Our results indicate that under current conditions the constraints on life-history imposed by large brains outweigh the potential benefits, undermining the resilience of the studied mammals. Contrary to the selective forces that have favoured increased brain size throughout evolutionary history, at present, larger brains have become a burden for mammals.

The role of predator overlap in the robustness and extinction of a four species predator-prey network

Predators and preys often form species networks with asymmetric patterns of interaction. We study the dynamics of a four species network consisting of two weakly connected predator-prey pairs. We focus our analysis on the effects of the cross interaction between the predator of the first pair and the prey of the second pair. This is an example where the predator overlap, which is the proportion of predators that a given prey shares with other preys, is not uniform across the network due to asymmetries in patterns of interaction. We explore the behavior of the system under different interaction strengths and study the dynamics of survival and extinction. In particular, we consider situations in which the four species have initial populations lower than their long-term equilibrium, simulating catastrophic situations in which their abundances are reduced due to human action or environmental change. We show that, under these reduced initial conditions, and depending on the strength of the cross interaction, the populations tend to oscillate before re-equilibrating, disturbing the community equilibrium and sometimes reaching values that are only a small fraction of the equilibrium population, potentially leading to their extinction. We predict that, contrary to one`s intuition, the most likely scenario is the extinction of the less predated preys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE REINTRODUCTION AND RECOVERY OF THE ALAGOAS CURASSOW MITU MITU (LINNAEUS, 1766) FROM EXTINCTION USING A POTENTIALLY HYBRID CAPTIVE STOCK

The Alagoas Curassow Mitu mitu is considered extinct in the wild. Since 1979, two females and a male caught in the wild have bred successfully in captivity, and, in 1990, hybridizations between M. mitu and Razor-billed Mitu M. tuberosum were performed. By June 2008, there were around 130 living birds in two different aviaries. We sequenced two regions of the mitochondrial DNA of both captive stocks of Alagoas Curassows. We unequivocally identified hybrids that have haplotype typical of M. tuberosum. However, unless the original studbook can be recovered there is no confident way to discriminate ""pure"" M. mitu birds for breeding and reintroduction purposes. Allied with morphological data gathered in an independent study, we suggest that conservation actions need to focus on specimens with diagnostic phenotypic characters of M. mitu, and avoid birds with mitochondria, genetic contribution of M. tuberosum. Although we have detected low levels of genetic variability among captive birds, the steady increase of the captive population suggests that inbreeding depression and hybridization are not a reproductive hindrance. Reintroduction of some of these potential hybrid birds in the original area of occurrence of the Alagoas Curassow may be the only hope to fill in the ecological niche left vacant. An educational program involving local communities to conserve future reintroduction of curassows and their restored habitat is highly recommended. Accepted 12 November 2009.

An extinction-survival-type phase transition in the probabilistic cellular automaton p182-q200

We investigate the critical behaviour of a probabilistic mixture of cellular automata (CA) rules 182 and 200 (in Wolfram`s enumeration scheme) by mean-field analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that as we switch off one CA and switch on the other by the variation of the single parameter of the model, the probabilistic CA (PCA) goes through an extinction-survival-type phase transition, and the numerical data indicate that it belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour. The PCA displays a characteristic stationary density profile and a slow, diffusive dynamics close to the pure CA 200 point that we discuss briefly. Remarks on an interesting related stochastic lattice gas are addressed in the conclusions.

Fabrics of pre- and syntectonic granite plutons and chronology of shear zones in the Eastern Borborema Province, NE Brazil

We used the fabrics of two granite plutons and U/Pb (SHRIMP) zircon ages to constrain the tectonic evolution of the E-trending Patos shear zone (Borborema Province, NE Brazil). The pre-tectonic Teixeira batholith consists of an amphibole leucogranite locally with aegirine-augite. Zircons from a syenogranite yielded crystallization ages of 591 +/- 5 Ma. The batholith fabrics were determined by anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and mineral shape preferred orientation. The fabrics support pre-transcurrent batholith emplacement, as evidenced by: (i) magmatic/magnetic fabrics in low susceptibility (<0.35 mSI) leucogranites highly discordant to the regional host rock structure, and (ii) concordant magnetic fabrics restricted to high susceptibility (>1 mSI) corridors connected to shear zones branching off from Patos. One of these satellite shear zones controlled the syntectonic emplacement of the Serra Redonda pluton, which yields a crystallization age of 576 +/- 3 Ma. This late shearing event marks the peak regional deformation that, south of Patos, was coupled to crustal shortening nearly perpendicular to the shear belt. The chronology of the deformational events indicates that the major shear zones of the eastern Borborema are late structures active after the crustal blocks amalgamated. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Holocene fires in East Amazonia (Caraja`s), new evidences, chronology and relation with paleoclimate

Past studies have evidenced the presence of charcoal in soils and lacustrine sediments of Amazonia region and suggested occurrences of widespread fires during the Middle Holocene. However, the available records do not indicate the changes in fire regime with enough time resolution. We quantified charcoal fragments in lacustrine sediments in a lake of North Carajas plateau in East Amazonia (5 degrees 50`-6 degrees 35`S and 49 degrees 30`-52 degrees 00`W). The charcoal quantification was compared to other sediment proxies, allowing a connection between paleofires and climate changes. Large variations in sediment characteristics led to distinct stages of sedimentation. From 11,800 (base of CSN 93/4) to 4750 cal yr B.P., low accumulation rates of organic matter are observed. Between 7600 cal yr B.P. (base of CSN 93/3 core) and 4750 cal yr B.P., this initial phase of sedimentation is characterized by low chlorophyll derivate accumulation rates and high accumulation rates of Botryococcus braunii, an alga resistant to episodic drought. The first phase of sedimentation would therefore correspond to, a low take level and a drier climate than today. Large biomass burning events occurred between 7450 cal yr B.P. and 4750 cal yr B.P., as indicated by the high charcoal particle concentration. From 4750 cal yr B.P. to 2800 cal yr B.P., accumulation rates of charcoal particles decreased, and the accumulation rate of chlorophyll derivate was low. From 2800 cal yr B.P. to 1300 cal yr B.P., the charcoal accumulation rates reached their lowest values in the core and a rapid increase in lacustrine production is evidenced by the increase in chlorophyll derivates and carbon accumulation rate. From 1300 cal yr B.P. to the last century, the charcoal accumulation rates increased. During the most recent period, the record is characterized by high accumulation rates of chlorophyll derivates while the charcoal particle accumulation rate decreased. This region is still unaffected by the current increase of anthropogenic fires. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.