1000 resultados para EPIDEMIC MODELLING


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Facing the lateral vibration problem of a machine rotor as a beam on elastic supports in bending, the authors deal with the free vibration of elastically restrained Bernoulli-Euler beams carrying a finite number of concentrated elements along their length. Based on Rayleigh's quotient, an iterative strategy is developed to find the approximated torsional stiffness coefficients, which allows the reconciliation between the theoretical model results and the experimental ones, obtained through impact tests. The mentioned algorithm treats the vibration of continuous beams under a determined set of boundary and continuity conditions, including different torsional stiffness coefficients and the effect of attached concentrated masses and rotational inertias, not only in the energetic terms of the Rayleigh's quotient but also on the mode shapes, considering the shape functions defined in branches. Several loading cases are examined and examples are given to illustrate the validity of the model and accuracy of the obtained natural frequencies.

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This paper presents the development of a solar photovoltaic (PV) model based on PSCAD/EMTDC - Power System Computer Aided Design – including a mathematical model study. An additional algorithm has been implemented in MATLAB software in order to calculate several parameters required by the PSCAD developed model. All the simulation study has been performed in PSCAD/MATLAB software simulation tool. A real data base concerning irradiance, cell temperature and PV power generation was used in order to support the evaluation of the implemented PV model.

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Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made individually. In Group Decision Argumentation, there is a set of participants, with different profiles and expertise levels, that exchange ideas or engage in a process of argumentation and counter-argumentation, negotiate, cooperate, collaborate or even discuss techniques and/or methodologies for problem solving. In this paper, it is proposed a Multi-Agent simulator for the behaviour representation of group members in a decision making process. Agents behave depending on rational and emotional intelligence and use persuasive argumentation to convince and make alternative choices.

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Industrial rotating machines may be exposed to severe dynamic excitations due to resonant working regimes. Dealing with the bending vibration, problem of a machine rotor, the shaft - and attached discs - can be simply modelled using the Bernoulli-Euler beam theory, as a continuous beam subjected to a specific set of boundary conditions. In this study, the authors recall Rayleigh's method to propose an iterative strategy, which allows for the determination of natural frequencies and mode shapes of continuous beams taking into account the effect of attached concentrated masses and rotational inertias, including different stiffness coefficients at the right and the left end sides. The algorithm starts with the exact solutions from Bernoulli-Euler's beam theory, which are then updated through Rayleigh's quotient parameters. Several loading cases are examined in comparison with the experimental data and examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the model and the accuracy of the obtained values.

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25th Annual Conference of the European Cetacean Society, Cadiz, Spain 21-23 March 2011.

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Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 25 de Março de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

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Besnoitia besnoiti is an apicomplexan parasite responsible for bovine besnoitiosis, a disease with a high prevalence in tropical and subtropical regions and re-emerging in Europe. Despite the great economical losses associated with besnoitiosis, this disease has been underestimated and poorly studied, and neither an effective therapy nor an efficacious vaccine is available. Protein disulfide isomerase (PDI) is an essential enzyme for the acquisition of the correct three-dimensional structure of proteins. Current evidence suggests that in Neosporacaninum and Toxoplasmagondii, which are closely related to B. besnoiti, PDI play an important role in host cell invasion, is a relevant target for the host immune response, and represents a promising drug target and/or vaccine candidate. In this work, we present the nucleotide sequence of the B. besnoiti PDI gene. BbPDI belongs to the thioredoxin-like superfamily (cluster 00388) and is included in the PDI_a family (cluster defined cd02961) and the PDI_a_PDI_a'_c subfamily (cd02995). A 3D theoretical model was built by comparative homology using Swiss-Model server, using as a template the crystallographic deduced model of Tapasin-ERp57 (PDB code 3F8U chain C). Analysis of the phylogenetic tree for PDI within the phylum apicomplexa reinforces the close relationship among B. besnoiti, N. caninum and T. gondii. When subjected to a PDI-assay based on the polymerisation of reduced insulin, recombinant BbPDI expressed in E. coli exhibited enzymatic activity, which was inhibited by bacitracin. Antiserum directed against recombinant BbPDI reacted with PDI in Western blots and by immunofluorescence with B. besnoiti tachyzoites and bradyzoites.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of the Brazilian version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life Instrument - Abbreviated version (WHOQOL-BREF) in adults with major depression, using Rasch modelling. METHODS: Study analyzing data from the baseline sample of the Longitudinal Investigation of Depression Outcomes in Brazil, including a total of 208 patients with major depression recruited in a primary care service in Porto Alegre (Southern Brazil), in 1999. The Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale was used to assess intensity of depression; the WHOQOL-BREF to assess generic quality of life; and the Composite International Diagnostic Interview version 2.1 for the diagnosis of depression. RESULTS: In the Rasch analysis, the four domains of WHOQOL-BREF showed appropriate fit to this model. Some items needed adjustments: four items were rescored (pain, finances, services, and transport); two items (work and activity) were identified as having dependency of responses, and one item was deleted (sleep) due to multidimensionality. CONCLUSIONS: The validation of the WHOQOL-BREF Brazilian version using Rasch analysis complements previous validation studies, evidencing the robustness of this instrument as a generic cross-cultural quality of life measure.

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Master Thesis in Mechanical Engineering field of Maintenance and Production

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The first and second authors would like to thank the support of the PhD grants with references SFRH/BD/28817/2006 and SFRH/PROTEC/49517/2009, respectively, from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnol ogia (FCT). This work was partially done in the scope of the project “Methodologies to Analyze Organs from Complex Medical Images – Applications to Fema le Pelvic Cavity”, wi th reference PTDC/EEA- CRO/103320/2008, financially supported by FCT.

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Specific marine macro algae species abundant at the Portuguese coast (Laminaria hyperborea, Bifurcaria bifurcata, Sargassum muticum and Fucus spiralis) were shown to be effective for removing toxic metals (Cd(II), Zn(II) and Pb(II)) from aqueous solutions. The initial metal concentrations in solution were about 75–100 mg L−1. The observed biosorption capacities for cadmium, zinc and lead ions were in the ranges of 23.9–39.5, 18.6–32.0 and 32.3–50.4 mg g−1, respectively. Kinetic studies revealed that the metal uptake rate was rather fast, with 75% of the total amount occurring in the first 10 min for all algal species. Experimental data were well fitted by a pseudo-second order rate equation. The contribution of internal diffusion mechanism was significant only to the initial biosorption stage. Results indicate that all the studied macro algae species can provide an efficient and cost-effective technology for eliminating heavy metals from industrial effluents.

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Research on the problem of feature selection for clustering continues to develop. This is a challenging task, mainly due to the absence of class labels to guide the search for relevant features. Categorical feature selection for clustering has rarely been addressed in the literature, with most of the proposed approaches having focused on numerical data. In this work, we propose an approach to simultaneously cluster categorical data and select a subset of relevant features. Our approach is based on a modification of a finite mixture model (of multinomial distributions), where a set of latent variables indicate the relevance of each feature. To estimate the model parameters, we implement a variant of the expectation-maximization algorithm that simultaneously selects the subset of relevant features, using a minimum message length criterion. The proposed approach compares favourably with two baseline methods: a filter based on an entropy measure and a wrapper based on mutual information. The results obtained on synthetic data illustrate the ability of the proposed expectation-maximization method to recover ground truth. An application to real data, referred to official statistics, shows its usefulness.

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Adhesively-bonded joints are extensively used in several fields of engineering. Cohesive Zone Models (CZM) have been used for the strength prediction of adhesive joints, as an add-in to Finite Element (FE) analyses that allows simulation of damage growth, by consideration of energetic principles. A useful feature of CZM is that different shapes can be developed for the cohesive laws, depending on the nature of the material or interface to be simulated, allowing an accurate strength prediction. This work studies the influence of the CZM shape (triangular, exponential or trapezoidal) used to model a thin adhesive layer in single-lap adhesive joints, for an estimation of its influence on the strength prediction under different material conditions. By performing this study, guidelines are provided on the possibility to use a CZM shape that may not be the most suited for a particular adhesive, but that may be more straightforward to use/implement and have less convergence problems (e.g. triangular shaped CZM), thus attaining the solution faster. The overall results showed that joints bonded with ductile adhesives are highly influenced by the CZM shape, and that the trapezoidal shape fits best the experimental data. Moreover, the smaller is the overlap length (LO), the greater is the influence of the CZM shape. On the other hand, the influence of the CZM shape can be neglected when using brittle adhesives, without compromising too much the accuracy of the strength predictions.

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Tese de doutoramento em Ciências da Educação, área de Teoria Curricular e Ensino das Ciências

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OBJECTIVE To analyze spatial changes in the risk of AIDS and the relationship between AIDS incidence and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia, Amazon region. METHODS A spatial, population case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil, based on 1,780 cases reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance System and controls based on demographic data from 1987 to 2006. The cases were grouped into five consecutive four-year periods. A generalized additive model was adjusted to the data; the dependent variable was the status of the individuals (case or control), and the independent variables were a bi-dimensional spline of the geographic coordinates and some municipality-level socioeconomic variables. The observed values of the Moran’s I test were compared to a reference distribution of values generated under conditions of spatial randomness. RESULTS AIDS risk shows a marked spatial and temporal pattern. The disease incidence is related to socioeconomic variables at the municipal level in Rondônia, such as urbanization and human capital. The highest incidence rates of AIDS are in municipalities along the BR-364 highway and calculations of the Moran’s I test show positive spatial correlation associated with proximity of the municipality to the highway in the third and fourth periods (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Incidence of the disease is higher in municipalities of greater economic wealth and urbanization, and in those municipalities bisected by Rondônia’s main roads. The rapid development associated with the opening up of once remote regions may be accompanied by an increase in these risks to health.