Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Knowledge management research in the construction industry: a review

Purpose: Knowledge management (KM) is important to the knowledge-intensive construction industry. The diversified and changing nature of works in this field warrants us to stocktake, identify changes and map out KM research framework for future exploration. Design/methodology/approach: The study involves three aspects. First, three stages of KM research in construction were distinguished in terms of the time distribution of 217 target publications. Major topics in the stages were extracted for understanding the changes of research emphasis from evolutionary perspective. Second, the past works were summed up in a three-dimensional research framework in terms of management organization, managerial methodology and approach, and managerial objective. Finally, potential research orientations in the future were predicted to expand the existing research framework. Findings: It was found that (1) KM research has significantly blossomed in the last two decades with a great potential; (2) major topics of KM were changing in terms of technology, technique, organization, attribute of knowledge and research objectives; (3) past KM studies centred around management organization, managerial methodology and approach, and managerial objective thus a three-dimensional research framework was proposed; (4) within the research framework, team-level, project-level and firm-level KM were studied to achieve project, organizational and competitive objectives by integrated methodologies of information technology, social technique and KM process tool; and (5) nine potential research orientations were predicted corresponding to the three dimensions. Finally, an expanded research framework was proposed to encourage and guide future research works in this field. Research limitations/implications: The paper only focused on the construction industry. The findings need further exploration in order to discover any possible missing important research works which were not published in English or not included in the time period. Originality/value: The paper formed a systematic framework of KM research in construction and predicted the potential research orientations. It provides much value for the researchers who want to understand the past and the future of global KM research in the construction industry.

How do Australian podiatrists manage patients with diabetes The Australian diabetic foot management survey

Background Diabetic foot complications are the leading cause of lower extremity amputation and diabetes-related hospitalisation in Australia. Studies demonstrate significant reductions in amputations and hospitalisation when health professionals implement best practice management. Whilst other nations have surveyed health professionals on specific diabetic foot management, to the best of the authors’ knowledge this appears not to have occurred in Australia. The primary aim of this study was to examine Australian podiatrists’ diabetic foot management compared with best practice recommendations by the Australian National Health Medical Research Council. Methods A 36-item Australian Diabetic Foot Management survey, employing seven-point Likert scales (0 = Never; 7 = Always) to measure multiple aspects of best practice diabetic foot management was developed. The survey was briefly tested for face and content validity. The survey was electronically distributed to Australian podiatrists via professional associations. Demographics including sex, years treating patients with diabetes, employment-sector and patient numbers were also collected. Chi-squared and Mann Whitney U tests were used to test differences between sub-groups. Results Three hundred and eleven podiatrists responded; 222 (71%) were female, 158 (51%) from the public sector and 11–15 years median experience. Participants reported treating a median of 21–30 diabetes patients each week, including 1–5 with foot ulcers. Overall, participants registered median scores of at least “very often” (>6) in their use of most items covering best practice diabetic foot management. Notable exceptions were: “never” (1 (1 – 3)) using total contact casting, “sometimes” (4 (2 – 5)) performing an ankle brachial index, “sometimes” (4 (1 – 6)) using University of Texas Wound Classification System, and “sometimes” (4 (3 – 6) referring to specialist multi-disciplinary foot teams. Public sector podiatrists reported higher use or access on all those items compared to private sector podiatrists (p < 0.01). Conclusions This study provides the first baseline information on Australian podiatrists’ adherence to best practice diabetic foot guidelines. It appears podiatrists manage large caseloads of people with diabetes and are generally implementing best practice guidelines recommendations with some notable exceptions. Further studies are required to identify barriers to implementing these recommendations to ensure all Australians with diabetes have access to best practice care to prevent amputations.

Innovative telemedicine and mobile phone technology in the management of diabetic foot ulcers

Background Diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) are a leading cause of diabetes-related hospitalisation and can be costly to manage without access to appropriate expert care. Within Queensland and indeed across many parts of Australia, there is an inequality in accessing specialist services for individuals with DFU. Recent National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) diabetic foot guidelines recommend remote expert consultation with digital imaging should be made available to people with DFU to improve their clinical outcomes. Telemedicine appears to show promise in improving access to diabetic foot specialist services; however diabetic foot telemedicine models to date have relied upon videoconferencing, store and forward technology and/or customised appliances to obtain digital imagery which all require either expensive infrastructure or a timed reply to the request for advice. Whilst mobile phone advice services have been used with success in general diabetes management and telehealth services have improved diabetic foot outcomes, the rapid emergence in the use of mobile phones has established a need to review the role that various forms of telemedicine play in the management of DFU. The aim of this paper is to review traditional telemedicine modalities that have been used in the management of DFU and to compare that to new and innovative technology that are emerging. Process Studies investigating the management of DFU using various forms of telemedicine interventions will be included in this review. They include the use of videoconferencing technology, hand held digital still photography purpose built imaging devices and mobile phone imagery. Electronic databases (Pubmed, Medline and CINAHL) will be searched using broad MeSH terms and keywords that cover the intended area of interest. Findings It is anticipated that the results of this narrative review will provide delegates of the 2015 Australasian Podiatry Conference an insight into the types of emerging innovative diagnostic telemedicine technologies in the management of DFU against the backdrop of traditional and evidence based modalities. It is anticipated that the findings will drive further research in the area of mobile phone imagery and innovation in the management of DFU.

Juvenile rheumatoid knee : Management of knee growth disturbances in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is associated with growth disturbances, especially leg length discrepancy (LLD) and knee valgus deformity (KVD). Studies have demonstrated growth plate stimulation with chronic arthritis. In the context of surgical treatment of LLD or KVD of a growing knee, the less invasive procedures, which allow immediate mobilisation, are preferred. Establishment of the skeletal age and the correction potential in the knees of rheumatic children is difficult due to rheumatic changes. In this present work, an analysis of the efficacy, safety and long-term results of temporary epiphyseal arrests performed in Rheumatism Foundation Hospital (Heinola, Finland). The distribution of diagnoses among children (n=71) with JIA and LLD (68 knees) was consistent with the normal oligoarthritis-predominated population of children with JIA. A higher male:female ratio (1:1.7 vs. 1:2.4 in population-based studies (PBS)) and earlier mean onset age (4 vs. 7 years in PBSs) were, however, distinct features in the study population. In most cases the correction was reliable and temporary arrest produced a mean correction of 1mm per month. The time of arrest required, however, varied significantly, probably due to the effect of underlying diseases and medication, and the age of the child. All complications encountered (10%) were minor. The correction achieved persisted in long-term follow-up. KVD (n=112, 177 knees) was associated with a high proportion of polyarthritic disease subtype (45% vs. 12-31% in PBSs), and the male:female distribution was grossly female-dominated (1:4.9 vs. 1:2.4 in PBSs). The early mean onset age (3 vs. 7 years in PBSs) was also notable in this cohort. Successful correction was achieved in 2/3 cases and the mean angular correction was 0.7 degrees per month. The required time of arrest, however, varied considerably. In 13% of knees the paucity of follow-up visits resulted in over-correction to varus. The complication rate (3%) in the knees operated for KVD was considerably lower compared to ten per cent in the management of LLD. Most of the complications related to epiphyseal stapling were reversible. However, the risk of premature closure of growth plates does exist. The number of over-corrections was notably high, with 13% knees turning to varus. The correction achieved persisted in long-term follow-up.

Supporting knowledge-intensive construction management tasks in BIM

The delivery of products and services for construction-based businesses is increasingly becoming knowledge-driven and information-intensive. The proliferation of building information modelling (BIM) has increased business opportunities as well as introduced new challenges for the architectural, engineering and construction and facilities management (AEC/FM) industry. As such, the effective use, sharing and exchange of building life cycle information and knowledge management in building design, construction, maintenance and operation assumes a position of paramount importance. This paper identifies a subset of construction management (CM) relevant knowledge for different design conditions of building components through a critical, comprehensive review of synthesized literature and other information gathering and knowledge acquisition techniques. It then explores how such domain knowledge can be formalized as ontologies and, subsequently, a query vocabulary in order to equip BIM users with the capacity to query digital models of a building for the retrieval of useful and relevant domain-specific information. The formalized construction knowledge is validated through interviews with domain experts in relation to four case study projects. Additionally, retrospective analyses of several design conditions are used to demonstrate the soundness (realism), completeness, and appeal of the knowledge base and query-based reasoning approach in relation to the state-of-the-art tools, Solibri Model Checker and Navisworks. The knowledge engineering process and the methods applied in this research for information representation and retrieval could provide useful mechanisms to leverage BIM in support of a number of knowledge intensive CM/FM tasks and functions.

Decentralised key management for delay tolerant networks

Public key authentication is the verification of the identity-public key binding, and is foundational to the security of any network. The contribution of this thesis has been to provide public key authentication for a decentralised and resource challenged network such as an autonomous Delay Tolerant Network (DTN). It has resulted in the development and evaluation of a combined co-localisation trust system and key distribution scheme evaluated on a realistic large geographic scale mobility model. The thesis also addresses the problem of unplanned key revocation and replacement without any central authority.

Analysis of cool roof coatings for residential demand side management in tropical Australia

Cool roof coatings have a beneficial impact on reducing the heat load of a range of building types, resulting in reduced cooling energy loads. This study seeks to understand the extent to which cool roof coatings could be used as a residential demand side management (DSM) strategy for retrofitting existing housing in a constrained network area in tropical Australia where peak electrical demand is heavily influenced by residential cooling loads. In particular this study seeks to determine whether simulation software used for building regulation purposes can provide networks with the ‘impact certainty’ required by their DSM principles. The building simulation method is supported by a field experiment. Both numerical and experimental data confirm reductions in total consumption (kWh) and energy demand (kW). The nature of the regulated simulation software, combined with the diverse nature of residential buildings and their patterns of occupancy, however, mean that simulated results cannot be extrapolated to quantify benefits to a broader distribution network. The study suggests that building data gained from regulatory simulations could be a useful guide for potential impacts of widespread application of cool roof coatings in this region. The practical realization of these positive impacts, however, would require changes to the current business model for the evaluation of DSM strategies. The study provides seven key recommendations that encourage distribution networks to think beyond their infrastructure boundaries, recognising that the broader energy system also includes buildings, appliances and people.

HealthMap: A cluster randomised trial of interactive health plans and self-management support to prevent coronary heart disease in people with HIV

Background The leading causes of morbidity and mortality for people in high-income countries living with HIV are now non-AIDS malignancies, cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases associated with ageing. This protocol describes the trial of HealthMap, a model of care for people with HIV (PWHIV) that includes use of an interactive shared health record and self-management support. The aims of the HealthMap trial are to evaluate engagement of PWHIV and healthcare providers with the model, and its effectiveness for reducing coronary heart disease risk, enhancing self-management, and improving mental health and quality of life of PWHIV. Methods/Design The study is a two-arm cluster randomised trial involving HIV clinical sites in several states in Australia. Doctors will be randomised to the HealthMap model (immediate arm) or to proceed with usual care (deferred arm). People with HIV whose doctors are randomised to the immediate arm receive 1) new opportunities to discuss their health status and goals with their HIV doctor using a HealthMap shared health record; 2) access to their own health record from home; 3) access to health coaching delivered by telephone and online; and 4) access to a peer moderated online group chat programme. Data will be collected from participating PWHIV (n = 710) at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months and from participating doctors (n = 60) at baseline and 12 months. The control arm will be offered the HealthMap intervention at the end of the trial. The primary study outcomes, measured at 12 months, are 1) 10-year risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death as estimated by a Framingham Heart Study risk equation; and 2) Positive and Active Engagement in Life Scale from the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). Discussion The study will determine the viability and utility of a novel technology-supported model of care for maintaining the health and wellbeing of people with HIV. If shown to be effective, the HealthMap model may provide a generalisable, scalable and sustainable system for supporting the care needs of people with HIV, addressing issues of equity of access. Trial registration Universal Trial Number (UTN) U111111506489; ClinicalTrial.gov Id NCT02178930 submitted 29 June 2014

Inventory Routing - A Strategic Management Accounting Perspective

This dissertation develops a strategic management accounting perspective of inventory routing. The thesis studies the drivers of cost efficiency gains by identifying the role of the underlying cost structure, demand, information sharing, forecasting accuracy, service levels, vehicle fleet, planning horizon and other strategic factors as well as the interaction effects among these factors with respect to performance outcomes. The task is to enhance the knowledge of the strategic situations that favor the implementation of inventory routing systems, understanding cause-and-effect relationships, linkages and gaining a holistic view of the value proposition of inventory routing. The thesis applies an exploratory case study design, which is based on normative quantitative empirical research using optimization, simulation and factor analysis. Data and results are drawn from a real world application to cash supply chains. The first research paper shows that performance gains require a common cost component and cannot be explained by simple linear or affine cost structures. Inventory management and distribution decisions become separable in the absence of a set-dependent cost structure, and neither economies of scope nor coordination problems are present in this case. The second research paper analyzes whether information sharing improves the overall forecasting accuracy. Analysis suggests that the potential for information sharing is limited to coordination of replenishments and that central information do not yield more accurate forecasts based on joint forecasting. The third research paper develops a novel formulation of the stochastic inventory routing model that accounts for minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy. The developed model allows studying the interaction of minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy with the underlying cost structure in inventory routing. Interestingly, results show that the factors minimal service level and forecasting accuracy are not statistically significant, and subsequently not relevant for the strategic decision problem to introduce inventory routing, or in other words, to effectively internalize inventory management and distribution decisions at the supplier. Consequently the main contribution of this thesis is the result that cost benefits of inventory routing are derived from the joint decision model that accounts for the underlying set-dependent cost structure rather than the level of information sharing. This result suggests that the value of information sharing of demand and inventory data is likely to be overstated in prior literature. In other words, cost benefits of inventory routing are primarily determined by the cost structure (i.e. level of fixed costs and transportation costs) rather than the level of information sharing, joint forecasting, forecasting accuracy or service levels.

Plant communities of field margins : the effects of management and environmental factors on species composition and diversity

Agri-environmental schemes have so far resulted in only minor positive implications for the biodiversity of agricultural environments, in contrast to what has been expected. Land-use intensification has decreased landscape heterogeneity and the amount of semi-natural habitats. Field margins are uncultivated areas of permanent vegetation located adjacent to fields. Since the number of these habitats is high, investing in their quality may result in more diverse agricultural landscapes. Field margins can be considered as multifunctional habitats providing agronomic, environmental and wildlife services. This thesis aimed at examining the plant communities of different types of field margin habitats and the factors affecting their species diversity and composition. The importance of edaphic, spatial and management factors was studied on regional, landscape and habitat scales. Vegetation surveys were conducted on regional and landscape scales and a field experiment on cutting management was conducted on a habitat scale. In field margin plant communities, species appeared to be indicators of high or intermediate soil fertility and moist soil conditions. The plant species diversity found was rather low, compared with most species-rich agricultural habitats in Finland, such as dry meadows. Among regions, land-use history, main production line, natural species and human induced distribution, climate and edaphic factors were elements inducing differences in species composition. The lowest regional species diversity of field margins was related to intensive and long-term cereal production. Management by cutting and removal or grazing had a positive effect on plant species diversity. The positive effect of cutting and removal on species richness was also dependent on the adjacent source of colonizing species. Therefore, in species-poor habitats and landscapes, establishment of margins with diverse seed mixtures can be recommended for enhancing the development of species richness. However, seed mixtures should include only native species preferably local origin. Management by cutting once a year for 5 years did not result in a decline in dominance of a harmful weed species, Elymus repens, showing that E. repens probably needs cutting more frequently than once per year. Agri-environmental schemes should include long-term contracts with farmers for the establishment, and management by cutting and removal or grazing, of field margins that are several metres wide. In such schemes, the timing and frequency of management should be planned so as not to harm other taxa, such as the insects and birds that are dependent on these habitats. All accidental herbicide drifts to field margins should be avoided when spraying the cultivated area to minimize the negative effects of sprayings on vegetation. The harmful effects of herbicides can be avoided by organic farming methods.

Laundry Symbols and License Management

One of the most challenging tasks in building language resources is the copyright license management. There are several reasons for this. First of all, the current European copyright system is designed to a large extent to satisfy the commercial actors, e.g. publishers, record companies etc. This means that the scope and duration of the rights are very extensive and there are even certain forms of protection that do not exist elsewhere in the world, e.g. database right. On the other hand, the exceptions for research and teaching are typically very narrow.

Parameter estimation in water-distribution systems by least squares

The weighted-least-squares method using sensitivity-analysis technique is proposed for the estimation of parameters in water-distribution systems. The parameters considered are the Hazen-Williams coefficients for the pipes. The objective function used is the sum of the weighted squares of the differences between the computed and the observed values of the variables. The weighted-least-squares method can elegantly handle multiple loading conditions with mixed types of measurements such as heads and consumptions, different sets and number of measurements for each loading condition, and modifications in the network configuration due to inclusion or exclusion of some pipes affected by valve operations in each loading condition. Uncertainty in parameter estimates can also be obtained. The method is applied for the estimation of parameters in a metropolitan urban water-distribution system in India.

Optimal management of beaver population using a reduced-order distributed parameter model and single network adaptive critics

Beavers are often found to be in conflict with human interests by creating nuisances like building dams on flowing water (leading to flooding), blocking irrigation canals, cutting down timbers, etc. At the same time they contribute to raising water tables, increased vegetation, etc. Consequently, maintaining an optimal beaver population is beneficial. Because of their diffusion externality (due to migratory nature), strategies based on lumped parameter models are often ineffective. Using a distributed parameter model for beaver population that accounts for their spatial and temporal behavior, an optimal control (trapping) strategy is presented in this paper that leads to a desired distribution of the animal density in a region in the long run. The optimal control solution presented, imbeds the solution for a large number of initial conditions (i.e., it has a feedback form), which is otherwise nontrivial to obtain. The solution obtained can be used in real-time by a nonexpert in control theory since it involves only using the neural networks trained offline. Proper orthogonal decomposition-based basis function design followed by their use in a Galerkin projection has been incorporated in the solution process as a model reduction technique. Optimal solutions are obtained through a "single network adaptive critic" (SNAC) neural-network architecture.