1000 resultados para Dispersive Estimates


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Biomass estimates of several species of Alaskan rockfishes exhibit large interannual variations. Because rockfishes are long lived and relatively slow growing, large, short-term shifts in population abundance are not likely. We attribute the variations in biomass estimates to the high variability in the spatial distribution of rockfishes that is not well accounted for by the survey design currently used. We evaluated the performance of an experimental survey design, the Trawl and Acoustic Presence/Absence Survey (TAPAS), to reduce the variability in estimated biomass for Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus). Analysis of archived acoustic backscatter data produced an acoustic threshold for delineating potential areas of high (“patch”) and low (“background”) catch per unit of effort (CPUE) in real time. In 2009, we conducted a 12-day TAPAS near Yakutat, Alaska. We completed 59 trawls at 19 patch stations and 40 background stations. The design performed well logistically, and Pacific ocean perch (POP) accounted for 55% of the 31 metric tons (t) of the catch from this survey. The resulting estimates of rockfish biomass were slightly less precise than estimates from simple random sampling. This difference in precision was due to the weak relationship of CPUE to mean volume backscattering and the relatively low variability of POP CPUE encountered. When the data were re-analyzed with a higher acoustic threshold than the one used in the field study, performance was slightly better with this revised design than with the original field design. The TAPAS design could be made more effective by establishing a stronger link between acoustic backscatter and CPUE and by deriving an acoustic threshold that allows better identification of backscatter as that from the target species.

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Estimates of larval supply can provide information on year-class strength that is useful for fisheries management. However, larval supply is difficult to monitor because long-term, high-frequency sampling is needed. The purpose of this study was to subsample an 11-year record of daily larval supply of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) to determine the effect of sampling interval on variability in estimates of supply. The coefficient of variation in estimates of supply varied by 0.39 among years at a 2-day sampling interval and 0.84 at a 7-day sampling interval. For 8 of the 11 years, there was a significant correlation between mean daily larval supply and lagged fishery catch per trip (coefficient of correlation [r]=0.88). When these 8 years were subsampled, a 2-day sampling interval yielded a significant correlation with fishery data only 64.5% of the time and a 3-day sampling interval never yielded a significant correlation. Therefore, high-frequency sampling (daily or every other day) may be needed to characterize interannual variability in larval supply.

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In 2006, the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, initiated development of a national bycatch report that would provide bycatch estimates for U.S. commercial fisheries at the fishery and species levels for fishes, marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds. As part of this project, the need to quantify the relative quality of available bycatch data and estimation methods was identified. Working collaboratively with fisheries managers and scientists across the nation, a system of evaluation was developed. Herein we describe the development of this system (the “tier system”), its components, and its application. We also discuss the value of the tier system in allowing fisheries managers to identify research needs and efficiently allocate limited resources toward those areas that will result in the greatest improvement to bycatch data and estimation quality.

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Results of recent seabird bycatch studies in the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas Convention Area were combined to estimate total seabird bycatch of pelagic longline fishing in the Atlantic Ocean, and bycatch per selected species. Available studies do not apply to the full spatial and temporal extent of the fishing effort, so assumptions were made to account for missing information. Over the 4 years from 2003 to 2006 the total seabird bycatch estimate was 48,500. Results indicate that about 57% of the pelagic longline seabird bycatch was albatrosses (Diomedea, Phoebastria, Thalassarche, Phoebetria spp.). This mortality is at a level to cause concern for the smaller and more vulnerable albatross populations in the region. Variation in annual seabird bycatch was caused by variation in total fishing effort, and movement of effort away from areas of higher seabird bycatch rates.

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We estimated the total number of pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) mothers killed without their calves (“calf deficit”) in all tuna purse-seine sets from 1973– 90 and 1996–2000 in the eastern tropical Pacific. Estimates were based on a tally of the mothers killed as reported by color pattern and gender, several color-pattern-based frequency tables, and a weaning model. Over the time series, there was a decrease in the calf deficit from approximately 2800 for the western-southern stock and 5000 in the northeastern stock to about 60 missing calves per year. The mean deficit per set decreased from approximately 1.5 missing calves per set in the mid-1970s to 0.01 per set in the late-1990s. Over the time series examined, from 75% to 95% of the lactating females killed were killed without a calf. Under the assumption that these orphaned calves did not survive without their mothers, this calf deficit represents an approximately 14% increase in the reported kill of calves, which is relatively constant across the years examined. Because the calf deficit as we have defined it is based on the kill of mothers, the total number of missing calves that we estimate is potentially an underestimate of the actual number killed. Further research on the mechanism by which separation of mother and calf occurs is required to obtain better estimates of the unobserved kill of dolphin calves in this fishery.

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The lengths of otoliths and other skeletal structures recovered from the scats of pinnipeds, such as Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), correlate with body size and can be used to estimate the length of prey consumed. Unfortunately, otoliths are often found in too few scats or are too digested to usefully estimate prey size. Alternative diagnostic bones are frequently recovered, but few bone-size to prey-size correlations exist and bones are also reduced in size by various degrees owing to digestion. To prevent underestimates in prey sizes consumed techniques are required to account for the degree of digestion of alternative bones prior to estimating prey size. We developed a method (using defined criteria and photo-reference material) to assign the degree of digestion for key cranial structures of two prey species: walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius). The method grades each structure into one of three condition categories; good, fair or poor. We also conducted feeding trials with captive Steller sea lions, feeding both fish species to determine the extent of erosion of each structure and to derive condition-specific digestion correction factors to reconstruct the original sizes of the structures consumed. In general, larger structures were relatively more digested than smaller ones. Mean size reduction varied between different types of structures (3.3−26.3%), but was not influenced by the size of the prey consumed. Results from the observations and experiments were combined to be able to reconstruct the size of prey consumed by sea lions and other pinnipeds. The proposed method has four steps: 1) measure the recovered structures and grade the extent of digestion by using defined criteria and photo-reference collection; 2) exclude structures graded in poor condition; 3) multiply measurements of structures in good and fair condition by their appropriate digestion correction factors to derive their original size; and 4) calculate the size of prey from allometric regressions relating corrected structure measurements to body lengths. This technique can be readily applied to piscivore dietary studies that use hard remains of fish.

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Fishery-independent estimates of spawning biomass (BSP) of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) on the south and lower west coasts of Western Australia (WA) were obtained periodically between 1991 and 1999 by using the daily egg production method (DEPM). Ichthyoplankton data collected during these surveys, specifically the presence or absence of S. sagax eggs, were used to investigate trends in the spawning area of S. sagax within each of four regions. The expectation was that trends in BSP and spawning area were positively related. With the DEPM model, estimates of BSP will change proportionally with spawning area if all other variables remain constant. The proportion of positive stations (PPS), i.e., stations with nonzero egg counts — an objective estimator of spawning area — was high for all south coast regions during the early 1990s (a period when the estimated BSP was also high) and then decreased after the mid-1990s. There was a decrease in PPS from the mid-1990s to 1999. The particularly low estimates in 1999 followed a severe epidemic mass mortality of S. sagax throughout their range across southern Australia. Deviations from the expected relationship between BSP and PPS were used to identify uncertainty around estimates of BSP. Because estimation of spawning area is subject to less sampling bias than estimation of BSP, the deviation in the relation between the two provides an objective basis for adjusting some estimates of the latter. Such an approach is particularly useful for fisheries management purposes when sampling problems are suspected to be present. The analysis of PPS undertaken from the same set of samples from which the DEPM estimate is derived will help provide information for stock assessments and for the management of purse-seine fisheries.

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Indirect estimates of instantaneous natural mortality rate (M) are widely used in stock assessment and fisheries management. They are essentially a form of meta-analysis, in which prior information on M and key life history parameters from a variety of stocks is used to estimate M for the stock in question.