Reformed county government structure and service delivery performance: An integrated study of Florida counties

The most fundamental and challenging function of government is the effective and efficient delivery of services to local taxpayers and businesses. Counties, once known as the “dark continent” of American government, have recently become a major player in the provision of services. Population growth and suburbanization have increased service demands while the counties' role as service provider to incorporated residents has also expanded due to additional federal and state mandates. County governments are under unprecedented pressure and scrutiny to meet citizens' and elected officials' demands for high quality, and equitable delivery of services at the lowest possible cost while contending with anti-tax sentiments, greatly decreased state and federal support, and exceptionally costly and complex health and public safety problems. ^ This study tested the reform government theory proposition that reformed structures of county government positively correlate with efficient service delivery. A county government reformed index was developed for this dissertation comprised of form of government, home-rule status, method of election, number of government jurisdictions, and number of elected officials. The county government reform index and a measure of relative structural fragmentation were used to assess their impact on two measures of service output: mean county road pavement condition and county road maintenance expenditures. The study's multi-level design triangulated results from different data sources and methods of analysis. Data were collected from semi-structured interviews of county officials, secondary archival sources, and a survey of 544 elected and appointed officials from Florida's 67 counties. The results of the three sources of data converged in finding that reformed Florida counties are more likely than unreformed counties to provide better road service and to spend less on road expenditures. The same results were found for unfragmented Florida counties. Because both the county government reform index and the fragmentation variables were specified acknowledging the reform theory as well as elements from the public-choice model, the results help explain contradicting findings in the urban service research. ^ Therefore, as suggested by the corroborated findings of this dissertation, reformed as well as unfragmented counties are better providers of road maintenance service and do so in a less costly manner. These findings hold although the variables were specified to capture theoretical arguments from the consolidated as well as the public-choice theories suggesting a way to advance the debate from the consolidated-fragmented dichotomy of urban governance. ^

Advanced methodologies in dynamic traffic assignment modeling of managed lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. ^ Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. ^ Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. ^ With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.^

GPs' implicit prioritization through clinical choices – evidence from three national health services

Acknowledgments The authors are grateful for valuable comments and inputs from participants at a series of seminars and conferences as well as to our three anonymous referees.

Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Valuation of Ecosystem Services for Environmental Decision Making in South Florida

The Greater Everglades system imparts vital ecosystem services (ES) to South Florida residents including high quality drinking water supplies and a habitat for threatened and endangered species. As a result of the altered Everglades system and regional dynamics, restoration may either improve the provision of these services or impose a tradeoff between enhanced environmental goods and services and competing societal demands. The current study aims at understanding public preferences for restoration and generating willingness to pay (WTP) values for restored ES through the implementation of a discrete choice experiment. A previous study (Milon et al., 1999) generated WTP values amongst Floridians of up to $3.42 -$4.07 billion for full restoration over a 10-year period. We have collected data from 2,905 respondents taken from two samples who participated in an online survey designed to elicit the WTP values for selected ecological and social attributes included in the earlier study (Milon et al. 1999). We estimate that the Florida general public is willing to pay up to $854.1- $954.1 million over 10 years to avoid restrictions on their water usage and up to $90.8- $183.7 million over 10 years to restore the hydrological flow within the Water Conservation Area.

Student Financial Aid:The Roles of Loans and Grants (Working Paper 37)

This paper addresses the roles of loans and grants as forms of student financial aid. It begins with a simple choice model where individuals decide to pursue post-secondary studies if i) the net benefits of doing so are positive and ii) no financing or liquidity constraints stand in their way. The effects of loans and grants on these two elements of the schooling decision are then discussed. It is argued that based on equity, efficiency, and fiscal considerations, loans are generally best suited for helping those who want to go but face financing constraints, whereas grants are more appropriate for increasing the incentives for individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds to further their studies. Loan subsidies, which make loans part-loan and part-grant, are also discussed, including how they might be used to address “debt aversion”. Given that subsidised loans have a grant (subsidy) element, while grants help overcome the credit constraints upon which loans are targeted, the paper then attempts to establish some general rules for providing loans, for subsidising the loans awarded, and for giving “pure” grants. It concludes with an application of these principles in the form of a recent proposal for reforming the student financial system in Canada. *

DESEO: an active vision system for detection, tracking and recognition

[EN]In this paper, a basic conceptual architecture aimed at the design of Computer Vision System is qualitatively described. The proposed architecture addresses the design of vision systems in a modular fashion using modules with three distinct units or components: a processing network or diagnostics unit, a control unit and a communications unit. The control of the system at the modules level is designed based on a Discrete Events Model. This basic methodology has been used to design a realtime active vision system for detection, tracking and recognition of people. It is made up of three functional modules aimed at the detection, tracking, recognition of moving individuals plus a supervision module.

Managing Rentals with Usage-Based Loss

Motivated by new and innovative rental business models, this paper develops a novel discrete-time model of a rental operation with random loss of inventory due to customer use. The inventory level is chosen before the start of a finite rental season, and customers not immediately served are lost. Our analysis framework uses stochastic comparisons of sample paths to derive structural results that hold under good generality for demands, rental durations, and rental unit lifetimes. Considering different \recirculation" rules | i.e., which rental unit to choose to meet each demand | we prove the concavity of the expected profit function and identify the optimal recirculation rule. A numerical study clarifies when considering rental unit loss and recirculation rules matters most for the inventory decision: Accounting for rental unit loss can increase the expected profit by 7% for a single season and becomes even more important as the time horizon lengthens. We also observe that the optimal inventory level in response to increasing loss probability is non-monotonic. Finally, we show that choosing the optimal recirculation rule over another simple policy allows more rental units to be profitably added, and the profit-maximizing service level increases by up to 6 percentage points.

Stochastic Modeling of Reversible Biochemical Reaction-Diffusion Systems and High-Resolution Shock-Capturing Methods for Fluid Interfaces

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Assessing Non-market Benefits of Seagrass Restoration in the Gulf of Gdańsk

Seagrass meadows (Zostera marina) are an important ecosystem in the coastal environment of the Baltic Sea. This study employs a discrete choice experiment to value a set of non-market benefits provided by seagrass meadows in the Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland. The benefits valued in this study are a reduction of filamentous algae in the water and on the beach; access to seagrass meadows for boaters and divers; and improved water clarity. Results show significant willingness to pay for each attribute and differences of value estimates across different groups of survey respondents. It is discussed how to link choice attributes and estimated values with established ecosystem benefit categories in order to facilitate value transfer.

Essays in asset price bubbles

This thesis studies the field of asset price bubbles. It is comprised of three independent chapters. Each of these chapters either directly or indirectly analyse the existence or implications of asset price bubbles. The type of bubbles assumed in each of these chapters is consistent with rational expectations. Thus, the kind of price bubbles investigated here are known as rational bubbles in the literature. The following describes the three chapters. Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to explain the recent US housing price bubble by developing a heterogeneous agent endowment economy asset pricing model with risky housing, endogenous collateral and defaults. Investment in housing is subject to an idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. We analytically derive the leverage or the endogenous loan to value ratio. This variable comes from a limited participation constraint in a one period mortgage contract with monitoring costs. Our results show that low values of housing investment risk produces a credit easing effect encouraging excess leverage and generates credit driven rational price bubbles in the housing good. Conversely, high values of housing investment risk produces a credit crunch characterized by tight borrowing constraints, low leverage and low house prices. Furthermore, the leverage ratio was found to be procyclical and the rate of defaults countercyclical consistent with empirical evidence. Chapter 2: It is widely believed that financial assets have considerable persistence and are susceptible to bubbles. However, identification of this persistence and potential bubbles is not straightforward. This chapter tests for price bubbles in the United States housing market accounting for long memory and structural breaks. The intuition is that the presence of long memory negates price bubbles while the presence of breaks could artificially induce bubble behaviour. Hence, we use procedures namely semi-parametric Whittle and parametric ARFIMA procedures that are consistent for a variety of residual biases to estimate the value of the long memory parameter, d, of the log rent-price ratio. We find that the semi-parametric estimation procedures robust to non-normality and heteroskedasticity errors found far more bubble regions than parametric ones. A structural break was identified in the mean and trend of all the series which when accounted for removed bubble behaviour in a number of regions. Importantly, the United States housing market showed evidence for rational bubbles at both the aggregate and regional levels. In the third and final chapter, we attempt to answer the following question: To what extend should individuals participate in the stock market and hold risky assets over their lifecycle? We answer this question by employing a lifecycle consumption-portfolio choice model with housing, labour income and time varying predictable returns where the agents are constrained in the level of their borrowing. We first analytically characterize and then numerically solve for the optimal asset allocation on the risky asset comparing the return predictability case with that of IID returns. We successfully resolve the puzzles and find equity holding and participation rates close to the data. We also find that return predictability substantially alter both the level of risky portfolio allocation and the rate of stock market participation. High factor (dividend-price ratio) realization and high persistence of factor process indicative of stock market bubbles raise the amount of wealth invested in risky assets and the level of stock market participation, respectively. Conversely, rare disasters were found to bring down these rates, the change being severe for investors in the later years of the life-cycle. Furthermore, investors following time varying returns (return predictability) hedged background risks significantly better than the IID ones.

Heat transfer performance investigation of nanofluids flow in pipe

Different types of base fluids, such as water, engine oil, kerosene, ethanol, methanol, ethylene glycol etc. are usually used to increase the heat transfer performance in many engineering applications. But these conventional heat transfer fluids have often several limitations. One of those major limitations is that the thermal conductivity of each of these base fluids is very low and this results a lower heat transfer rate in thermal engineering systems. Such limitation also affects the performance of different equipments used in different heat transfer process industries. To overcome such an important drawback, researchers over the years have considered a new generation heat transfer fluid, simply known as nanofluid with higher thermal conductivity. This new generation heat transfer fluid is a mixture of nanometre-size particles and different base fluids. Different researchers suggest that adding spherical or cylindrical shape of uniform/non-uniform nanoparticles into a base fluid can remarkably increase the thermal conductivity of nanofluid. Such augmentation of thermal conductivity could play a more significant role in enhancing the heat transfer rate than that of the base fluid. Nanoparticles diameters used in nanofluid are usually considered to be less than or equal to 100 nm and the nanoparticles concentration usually varies from 5% to 10%. Different researchers mentioned that the smaller nanoparticles concentration with size diameter of 100 nm could enhance the heat transfer rate more significantly compared to that of base fluids. But it is not obvious what effect it will have on the heat transfer performance when nanofluids contain small size nanoparticles of less than 100 nm with different concentrations. Besides, the effect of static and moving nanoparticles on the heat transfer of nanofluid is not known too. The idea of moving nanoparticles brings the effect of Brownian motion of nanoparticles on the heat transfer. The aim of this work is, therefore, to investigate the heat transfer performance of nanofluid using a combination of smaller size of nanoparticles with different concentrations considering the Brownian motion of nanoparticles. A horizontal pipe has been considered as a physical system within which the above mentioned nanofluid performances are investigated under transition to turbulent flow conditions. Three different types of numerical models, such as single phase model, Eulerian-Eulerian multi-phase mixture model and Eulerian-Lagrangian discrete phase model have been used while investigating the performance of nanofluids. The most commonly used model is single phase model which is based on the assumption that nanofluids behave like a conventional fluid. The other two models are used when the interaction between solid and fluid particles is considered. However, two different phases, such as fluid and solid phases is also considered in the Eulerian-Eulerian multi-phase mixture model. Thus, these phases create a fluid-solid mixture. But, two phases in the Eulerian-Lagrangian discrete phase model are independent. One of them is a solid phase and the other one is a fluid phase. In addition, RANS (Reynolds Average Navier Stokes) based Standard κ-ω and SST κ-ω transitional models have been used for the simulation of transitional flow. While the RANS based Standard κ-ϵ, Realizable κ-ϵ and RNG κ-ϵ turbulent models are used for the simulation of turbulent flow. Hydrodynamic as well as temperature behaviour of transition to turbulent flows of nanofluids through the horizontal pipe is studied under a uniform heat flux boundary condition applied to the wall with temperature dependent thermo-physical properties for both water and nanofluids. Numerical results characterising the performances of velocity and temperature fields are presented in terms of velocity and temperature contours, turbulent kinetic energy contours, surface temperature, local and average Nusselt numbers, Darcy friction factor, thermal performance factor and total entropy generation. New correlations are also proposed for the calculation of average Nusselt number for both the single and multi-phase models. Result reveals that the combination of small size of nanoparticles and higher nanoparticles concentrations with the Brownian motion of nanoparticles shows higher heat transfer enhancement and thermal performance factor than those of water. Literature suggests that the use of nanofluids flow in an inclined pipe at transition to turbulent regimes has been ignored despite its significance in real-life applications. Therefore, a particular investigation has been carried out in this thesis with a view to understand the heat transfer behaviour and performance of an inclined pipe under transition flow condition. It is found that the heat transfer rate decreases with the increase of a pipe inclination angle. Also, a higher heat transfer rate is found for a horizontal pipe under forced convection than that of an inclined pipe under mixed convection.

Stenosis triggers spread of helical Pseudomonas biofilms in cylindrical flow systems

Biofilms are multicellular bacterial structures that adhere to surfaces and often endow the bacterial population with tolerance to antibiotics and other environmental insults. Biofilms frequently colonize the tubing of medical devices through mechanisms that are poorly understood. Here we studied the helicoidal spread of Pseudomonas putida biofilms through cylindrical conduits of varied diameters in slow laminar flow regimes. Numerical simulations of such flows reveal vortical motion at stenoses and junctions, which enhances bacterial adhesion and fosters formation of filamentous structures. Formation of long, downstream-flowing bacterial threads that stem from narrowings and connections was detected experimentally, as predicted by our model. Accumulation of bacterial biomass makes the resulting filaments undergo a helical instability. These incipient helices then coarsened until constrained by the tubing walls, and spread along the whole tube length without obstructing the flow. A three-dimensional discrete filament model supports this coarsening mechanism and yields simulations of helix dynamics in accordance with our experimental observations. These findings describe an unanticipated mechanism for bacterial spreading in tubing networks which might be involved in some hospital-acquired infections and bacterial contamination of catheters.

Procedimento para estudo da escolha modal em viagens realizadas por estudantes de instituições de ensino médio, mediado pela psicologia social

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

Modelling reactive and proactive behaviour in simulation

This research investigated the simulation model behaviour of a traditional and combined discrete event as well as agent based simulation models when modelling human reactive and proactive behaviour in human centric complex systems. A departmental store was chosen as human centric complex case study where the operation system of a fitting room in WomensWear department was investigated. We have looked at ways to determine the efficiency of new management policies for the fitting room operation through simulating the reactive and proactive behaviour of staff towards customers. Once development of the simulation models and their verification had been done, we carried out a validation experiment in the form of a sensitivity analysis. Subsequently, we executed a statistical analysis where the mixed reactive and proactive behaviour experimental results were compared with some reactive experimental results from previously published works. Generally, this case study discovered that simple proactive individual behaviour could be modelled in both simulation models. In addition, we found the traditional discrete event model performed similar in the simulation model output compared to the combined discrete event and agent based simulation when modelling similar human behaviour.